Page 5 of 6 < 1 2 3 4 5 6 >
Topic Options
#1408833 - 20/02/2017 08:31 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1012
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Uptake in low...FIZZER .
Until we get out of this neutral stage between lanina and elnino. Nothing is going to really get going
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

Top
#1408834 - 20/02/2017 08:37 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Hopefull Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1004
Loc: Burpengary QLD
And that is one of the contentious points. For us here in SE QLD does enso really matter anymore? I have no idea.

Top
#1408843 - 20/02/2017 09:34 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4428
It's official - the low has now become Cat 1 TC Alfred.

Top
#1408848 - 20/02/2017 10:16 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14151
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
Formed in NT and doing a loop according to the track map.
_________________________
202mm April 2017
Best 156mm 19/5/17
2017 Total 694mm
2016 Total 649mm
2015 Total 375mm
2014 Total 1032mm
2013 Total 715mm







Top
#1408849 - 20/02/2017 10:19 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4844
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Will it remain a TC longer than the WA travesty earlier in the year? wink

Top
#1408856 - 20/02/2017 11:43 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
tag Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/12/2010
Posts: 477
Loc: Alligator creek
Yes it is sad when we count cyclone's life in hours rather than the usual days.
C'mon Alfred, do us some good and put hope where little now exists.

Top
#1408865 - 20/02/2017 12:57 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Delta-T Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 28
Loc: Peachester
Ken, I'd also rather read more of your enlightening posts than fewer.

Top
#1408867 - 20/02/2017 13:12 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3169
Loc: Broome

Let see what Alfred is capable of ...so far only a short life of just over a day predicted.
Doing a bit of a dance in the Gulf atm then a big swing to the west on Wednesday morning .

Details of Tropical Cyclone Alfred at 9:30 am ACST [10:00 am AEST]:

Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 55 kilometres of 15.4 degrees South 137.2 degrees East, estimated to be 120 kilometres northeast of Borroloola and 190 kilometres south southeast of Alyangula.

Movement: south southeast at 8 kilometres per hour.


Tropical cyclone Alfred is expected to remain at category 1 intensity as it moves slowly southeast towards the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast. The cyclone is expected to cross the coast west of the NT / Queensland border early Tuesday
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

Top
#1408876 - 20/02/2017 14:29 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4428
Thanks Aussea and Delta-T smile And +1 ColdFront.

Top
#1408878 - 20/02/2017 14:43 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7768
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Haha I went to search for this system on JTWC and was greeted with this on their page.

'No Active Tropical Warnings in the Northwest Pacific, North Indian Ocean, Central Pacific, Eastern Pacific, or Southern Hemisphere.'

Must be blowing 34.2knts somewhere in there.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

Top
#1408879 - 20/02/2017 14:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7768
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Oh Hang on I found this

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.9S 136.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 135.3E, APPROXIMATELY
250 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 182355Z MHS AMSU-B METOP-A
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A MOSTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER LAND, WITH FLARING
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE MOST RECENT ANIMATED RADAR LOOP
IMAGERY FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA SHOWS PRECIPITATION TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC WITH VERY LITTLE STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SITS IN AN AREA WITH GOOD POLEWARD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20
KNOTS), BUT ITS DEVELOPMENT IS BEING HINDERED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WEST OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE DISTURBANCE QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH LITTLE TO NO
INTENSIFICATION INDICATED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

Top
#1408880 - 20/02/2017 14:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7768
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Even BOM is not sure whether its a cyclone or not. Its been named TC Alfred yet in their most recent Technical Bulletin they mention at the end.
'There is the possibility of a cyclone formation within the next 12-24hours.'
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

Top
#1408881 - 20/02/2017 14:52 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4844
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Centre Island(NT) at the bottom of the Gulf seems to be getting the best of it. 40plus kts sustained gust to 59

Top
#1408888 - 20/02/2017 16:19 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3169
Loc: Broome

Not doing much in the last few hours .Could be causing its own demise .
Surface water in some parts of the GoC could be cooling down after getting so much cooler rain dumped into it.

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 15.5 degrees South, 137.2 degrees East , 115 kilometres east northeast of Borroloola and 200 kilometres south southeast of Alyangula .

Current movement: south southeast at 6 kilometres per hour .
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

Top
#1408932 - 20/02/2017 21:25 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 149
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: Popeye
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
How many did the BOM forecast?

I am not sure on exact numbers. You lose faith in 'predictions' and short and long term 'model reliance' especially when they often forecast 5% chance of rain and we cop 50mm+ half an hour later. The occasional 'stick their heads out the window and have a look' forecast would be better sometimes.

The Bureau's outlook had a 67% chance of more TC's than usual (11) for this season in the Australian region.

Also, looking out the window is absolutely useless for predicting what a TC season will be like, let alone many aspects of weather beyond a few hours.


Ken, I have to admit,I really enjoy the professionalism shown within your posts. Maybe those who have a shot at the BOM should have a crack at the forecasting and interpretation of the modelling, to better appreciate the service they offer - and measure the actuals against the forecast om the day.

For those who want to learn, like myself, it's great to see a representative of BOM (even in an unofficial capacity) adding value to the discussions - especially when the reality of a severe Tropical Cyclone is just off our doorstep (ie: Larry, Yasi or Ita).


Edited by MangroveJack70 (20/02/2017 21:28)

Top
#1408933 - 20/02/2017 21:31 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Aussea]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 149
Originally Posted By: Aussea
Hey Ken. Please continue to bother to post!! One of the major draw cards of this weather forum for me apart from the local real time reporting from the community - are your Posts. Seriously. If I couldn't grab an insight of yours now and then particularly during major weather events - I would not bother to come back to this weather forum TBH.

I may not contribute that much on here; and ahem, are still gazing according to the Weatherzone forum ranking, but I hugely respect your posts and depth of knowledge. Thanks for your long standing efforts and the enlightenment!.



Totally agree.

Top
#1408945 - 20/02/2017 22:14 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ronfishes Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2013
Posts: 3222
Loc: Gordonvale
Could be a lowest temp for Feb today with 23.1c @ 0905 for Boroloola. This p!$$ little system has knocked down a few records at least.
_________________________
MTD: 4mm
2016-2017 wet season: 1317.8mm
YTD: 1313mm

Opinion is not fact.

Top
#1408954 - 21/02/2017 00:02 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Delta-T Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 28
Loc: Peachester
Could be the only cyclone to almost cross the Qld coast this season.

There, that should help prime things a bit.

Top
#1408956 - 21/02/2017 00:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7768
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Hope the OCC boys are onto this one. Nice little CAT 1 to get the season rolling for them.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

Top
#1408957 - 21/02/2017 00:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
hickory Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/01/2006
Posts: 1105
Loc: Holloways Beach QLD
It's an insult calling the bloody thing a cyclone !

Sydney get stronger August westerlies than this thing.

Top
Page 5 of 6 < 1 2 3 4 5 6 >


Who's Online
0 registered (), 43 Guests and 6 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Blinky_Bill, Blue Sky, cmonrain, hydzy79, Simon Clarke, V8R
Forum Stats
29343 Members
32 Forums
23661 Topics
1458648 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image