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#1408050 - 17/02/2017 08:00 Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24711
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
looking likely to be our first named system of the season.

OP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 5:01 am EST on Friday 17 February 2017
Headline:
High chance of a Gulf of Carpentaria tropical cyclone this weekend.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
NT/Qld Border to Burketown.

Watch Zone
Port McArthur to NT/Qld Border.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Low at 4:00 am AEST [3:30 am ACST]:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 15 kilometres of 16.6 degrees South 139.2 degrees East, estimated to be 7 kilometres north northeast of Mornington Island and 130 kilometres east of NT/Qld Border.

Movement: southwest at 6 kilometres per hour.

The tropical low situated near Mornington Island is expected to continue moving towards the southwest today and may form into a tropical cyclone by tonight. It is possible that the system may reach category 2 intensity near the Qld/NT border on Saturday, but this will be highly dependent on the system taking a track over water during the next 24 hours.

Hazards:
GALES may develop about coastal and island communities between Burketown (Queensland) and the NT/Queensland border today, before possibly extending to Port McArthur (NT) on Saturday. DESTRUCTIVE winds, with gusts in excess of 125 kilometres per hour, may occur near the NT/Queensland border during Saturday.

Heavy rain, which may lead to localised flash flooding, is also possible in areas about the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast, islands and adjacent inland areas during today and over the weekend.

Abnormally high tides are expected about the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast today and over the weekend, but at this stage the sea level is not forecast to exceed the highest tide of the year. Large waves are likely along the beachfront.

Recommended Action:
People between Burketown (Queensland) and the NT/Queensland border should take precautions and listen to the next advice at around 8am AEST.

- Information is available from your local government

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland Fire and Emergency Service (QFES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

NTES advises communities under Watch between Port McArthur and the Qld/NT border:

- Finalise your emergency kit preparations;

- Clear your premises of potential wind borne missiles;

- Commence home shelter preparations, or decide NOW where you will shelter;

- If your present accommodation is not to code, or you re unsure, you should arrange to shelter with friends, family or in a public shelter or strong building.

- Do not move to shelter until advised by local authorities.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 8:00 am AEST Friday 17 February [7:30 am ACST Friday 17 February].
This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone


Edited by Mick10 (20/02/2017 09:49)
Edit Reason: name change
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
April 2017 total - 12.2mm (62mm)
May 2017 total - 177.6mm (32mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 692.8mm (1122mm)

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#1408051 - 17/02/2017 08:08 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23510
Loc: Townsville
Its close to being named. Very close. Its just so close to land.
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2015/16 Storms
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#1408055 - 17/02/2017 08:17 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
weathermegs Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/03/2010
Posts: 444
Loc: Edmonton QLD
After such a pathetic start to the season let's hope it gives us something to watch otherwise I need to find a new hobby


Edited by weathermegs (17/02/2017 08:18)

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#1408056 - 17/02/2017 08:25 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2677
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Looks nice on radar.

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#1408062 - 17/02/2017 08:57 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
From the technical bulletin issued 1910 UTC 16/02/2017 [0440 ACST 17/02/2017]

REMARKS:
The tropical low over southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters has rapidly developed over the last 24 hours. Mornington Island radar has shown that convection is tightly wrapping around the low level centre, which is currently located near the north coast of Mornington Island. The automatic weather station [AWS] at Mornington Island Airport has shown pressure falls of 10hPa over the last 24 hours and 4hPa in the hour to 18UTC, which supports the recent development trend. ASCAT-B at 1148UTC indicated an area of marginal gale force winds on the eastern flank of the system and gales have recently been observed at Mornington Island Airport AWS.

The latest Dvorak analysis was based on a curved band pattern with a 0.5 degree wrap, giving a DT of 2.5. MET and PAT 1.5 and 2.0 respectively. FT based on DT as it appeared fairly clear.

The CIMMS satellite winds indicate that the system lies in an environment favourable for development with low vertical wind shear and dual outflow channels evident. Sea surface temperatures are sufficiently warm at 30 degrees around the southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters. As a result, it is anticipated that the system may form into a tropical cyclone today and that it could reach category 2 intensity on Saturday near the Qld/NT border, but this will be highly dependent on the system taking a track over water during the next 24 hours.

The recent movement of the system has been towards the southwest, presumably under the influence of a mid-level ridge situated to the south. It is expected that the system should continue moving in this direction, or to the west-southwest, until Saturday when an upper trough breaks down the current steering influence, resulting in a recurving of the system towards the east.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/0130 UTC by Darwin TCWC.



GFS has it ending up heading south west roughly past Tennant Creek and into WA whereas BOM has it heading east.

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#1408066 - 17/02/2017 09:20 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
Global model tracks for this system


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#1408068 - 17/02/2017 09:25 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
91P Long Floater - Visible Imagery Loop

www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91P/flash-vis-long.html

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#1408099 - 17/02/2017 11:32 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Dawgggg]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7766
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
Its close to being named. Very close. Its just so close to land.

Must be good to finally get a chase. Are you guys onto it?
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1408107 - 17/02/2017 12:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23510
Loc: Townsville
Will be if it hits Karumba.

Only play in the southern gulf.
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#1408160 - 17/02/2017 16:21 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24711
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
latest track is a lot slower.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
April 2017 total - 12.2mm (62mm)
May 2017 total - 177.6mm (32mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 692.8mm (1122mm)

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#1408180 - 17/02/2017 17:15 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 458
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
This is gonna be useless to us. Be good for the gulf region but us nup. No chance. Will get nothing from it.
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Apr 2017]: 5.1mm (Ave 130.4mm)
Mar 2017: 246.3mm (avg 468.4mm)
YTD 2017 912.8mm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1408183 - 17/02/2017 17:23 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 2155
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
Someone better chase it, the cyclones are quite scarce again so far and not much chance to get chases
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Wandjina - Cloud and rain spirits from Australian Aboriginal mythology

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#1408206 - 17/02/2017 19:07 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 1922
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Well if they are going to chase it, can they chase it into the coastal CQ area?

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#1408212 - 17/02/2017 19:37 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24711
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
yep sadly all models align for an eventual westward movement.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
April 2017 total - 12.2mm (62mm)
May 2017 total - 177.6mm (32mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 692.8mm (1122mm)

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#1408217 - 17/02/2017 19:54 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3127
Loc: Broome


Right that's it then can't say you guys didn't have your chance.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1408219 - 17/02/2017 19:55 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7766
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Originally Posted By: Mick10
yep sadly all models align for an eventual westward movement.

That's great news. poke
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1408224 - 17/02/2017 20:40 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24711
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
large chunks of our states drought declared farmers disagree, as does our city water supply.

however, weirdly the low now seems to be moving SE.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
April 2017 total - 12.2mm (62mm)
May 2017 total - 177.6mm (32mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 692.8mm (1122mm)

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#1408233 - 17/02/2017 21:20 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
pabloako Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/03/2007
Posts: 1598
Loc: Ocean View, Queensland
Here is a time lapse of the last 24 hours of satellite images.
http://www.oceanviewweather.com.au/Satellite/HimawariSatellite-GOC.asp
(It updates every 30 minutes)
_________________________
Ocean View, QLD. (Alt. 398m)

GFS + Long Range - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/GFS
Satellite Images - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/Satellite

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#1408235 - 17/02/2017 21:29 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: desieboy]
JimmyGray Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/08/2008
Posts: 1576
Loc: Palmerston NT
Originally Posted By: desieboy


Right that's it then can't say you guys didn't have your chance.

LMAO ....
And yeh Mick its SE or South by my reckoning

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#1408245 - 17/02/2017 22:53 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24711
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
may have been a wobble in the llcc but its now slipped over the border into the NT, so back to SW/SWW
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
April 2017 total - 12.2mm (62mm)
May 2017 total - 177.6mm (32mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 692.8mm (1122mm)

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#1408249 - 18/02/2017 00:11 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7766
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Originally Posted By: Mick10
large chunks of our states drought declared farmers disagree


Half the images of QLD in drought look like a good season in WA. I have no doubt it has been dry over there and the farmers are doing it tough but what do they expect farming in Australia and on marginal land..... I guess they have to take the good with the bad years.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1408252 - 18/02/2017 01:42 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Hopefull Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 995
Loc: Burpengary QLD
What is marginal land? Is all of SEQLD marginal land ?

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#1408253 - 18/02/2017 02:16 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8281
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Yeah because flooded WA needs it more aye Popeye

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#1408254 - 18/02/2017 02:26 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7766
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Yeah bring it on. Most towns in the Pilbara barley average 180mm a year and yet all we hear about in QLD is people having a sook about only getting 290 or 350 or 500mm compared to the averages of 500 700 1100mm and call drought drought drought. Even the Victorians when they had an epic drought seemed to deal with it and move along. I know that is harsh but like I said its Australia. Take in the words of the National Anthem 'droughts and flooding rains' its part and parcel of the continent drought. If SE QLD only got half their average for a year or two well they need to suck it up and deal with it. Also if they are farming cattle in inland Central/Nth QLD where its dry marginal land, you have to expect drought.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1408255 - 18/02/2017 02:36 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7766
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
30 kms inland of Tropical Broome in November last year before the first rains.

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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1408256 - 18/02/2017 02:44 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7766
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Anyway wonder if this one will even get to TC status? Follow the trend of promising but then gets shredded by shear or something and fizzles.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1408257 - 18/02/2017 02:44 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
tsunami Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 985
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Have another whisky popeye and relax. Different areas have different rainfall its all realitive to the area
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Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1408258 - 18/02/2017 02:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
tsunami Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 985
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Nice picture popeye
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Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1408260 - 18/02/2017 02:59 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7766
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Haha. You can tell it's a quiet year when I have to resort to having a go at qlders. Well thinking about that I do that quite often haha. Cheers and yep putting the last red wine away just now.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1408261 - 18/02/2017 04:09 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
tsunami Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 985
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Gotta have a bit of rivalry as qld is allways in front
For instance 1st to see the sun
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Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1408269 - 18/02/2017 08:09 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4844
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
looks like a dogs breakfast on radar frown. Really hope it gets back over water

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#1408270 - 18/02/2017 08:13 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23510
Loc: Townsville
[censored] house system.
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2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1408275 - 18/02/2017 08:51 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1561
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the S Wes...
Nice photo Popeye,Yeah it looks to be dying out in the gulf.
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BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

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#1408283 - 18/02/2017 09:49 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Popeye]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23510
Loc: Townsville
Originally Posted By: Popeye
Originally Posted By: Mick10
large chunks of our states drought declared farmers disagree


Half the images of QLD in drought look like a good season in WA. I have no doubt it has been dry over there and the farmers are doing it tough but what do they expect farming in Australia and on marginal land..... I guess they have to take the good with the bad years.


Easy to sit back and say that after a good wet season after a few wines.

Tell the farmers that and you would get shot lol

Marginal land runs the beef industry in Australia lol



Edited by Dawgggg (18/02/2017 09:49)
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2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1408284 - 18/02/2017 09:56 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
bbowen Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/03/2011
Posts: 113
Cmon all lets get back on topic, or at least get the ruler out. Geez.

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#1408285 - 18/02/2017 10:07 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23510
Loc: Townsville
Lets get the ruler out.

Will be more interesting than Pops lame trolling lol

He used to be witty. Your slippin pops.


Edited by Dawgggg (18/02/2017 10:08)
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2015/16 Storms
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#1408286 - 18/02/2017 10:09 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4356
As with most systems in the Gulf (or anywhere near land for that matter), the uncertainty about its future intensity and track is often high since the area is surrounded on three sides by land. Just a tiny shift in its position can mean the difference between the system staying a low or rapidly becoming an intense TC.

The Bureau's current technical bulletin sums it up well:

REMARKS:
The tropical low has moved westwards after crossing the coast in the southern
Gulf of Carpentaria, remaining over land. The low level centre appears to have
become exposed on the northern side of intermittent convection.

Dvorak analysis is unavailable due to the system moving over land.

CIMSS satellite winds indicate that the system lies in an environment favourable
for development with low vertical wind shear and dual outflow channels evident.
Sea surface temperatures are sufficiently warm at 30 degrees around the southern
Gulf of Carpentaria waters. As a result, it is anticipated that the system may
form into a tropical cyclone if it moves back over water and that it could reach
category 2 intensity later on Sunday, but this will be highly dependent on the
system taking a track over water during the next 24 to 48 hours.

The recent movement of the system has been westwards, due to a middle level
ridge building to the south. As the mid level steering turns more southeasterly
the system is expect to turn towards the northwest before curving towards the
northeast later today today or Sunday when an amplifying upper trough from the
southwest breaks down the steering influence, resulting in a recurving of the
system towards the east later in the weekend.


The 1st image below shows the spread of potential intensity of the system among some of the models (NOTE that the intensity scale is based on the hurricane scale so TS = Cat 1 in Australia).

2nd and 3rd images show the spread of potential tracks among some of the models and also ensembles.

The 4th image shows the probabilities of TC formation during the 48 hours until 10pm Sunday EST based on several TC ingredients analysed by satellite and what's actually happened in the past i.e. the percentage of times in the past when a system's developed into a TC given the current ingredients:









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#1408289 - 18/02/2017 10:20 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1493
Loc: Kingaroy
Why is everything that forms in the gulf always going west these days? Surely we have to get a south east moving system soon.

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#1408292 - 18/02/2017 10:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ronfishes Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2013
Posts: 3186
Loc: Gordonvale
Pretty sure Burketown just scored highest Feb 24hr total.
_________________________
MTD: 24.4mm
2016-2017 wet season: 1317.8mm
YTD: 1268.8mm

Opinion is not fact.

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#1408301 - 18/02/2017 11:40 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Rhubarb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2011
Posts: 749
Loc: West End, Townsville, QLD
Good explanation Ken!

This is the latest from JTWC .. a very confused system frown

WTPS21 PGTW 171830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161821ZFEB2017//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 161830). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 138.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR
17.0S 137.7E, APPROXIMATELY 85 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MORNINGTON
ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 171702Z MHS NOAA-19 89GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT WEAKENING
CORE CONVECTION OVER AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDING EVIDENT IN MOST RECENT ANIMATED
RADAR LOOP FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND AIRPORT RADAR. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH DIFFLUENT
OUTFLOW LIGHT (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER, AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF THE SYSTEM IS INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT. MODEL
GUIDANCE DEPICTS QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON
DETERIORATED CONDITIONS AS THE SYSTEM MOVED OVER LAND, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM. THIS CANCELS REF A.//
NNNN
_________________________
Rhubarb
Slightly damp!!

Rainfall
2017: May 19th: 46mm
2017: May 18th: 113 mm Whopee ..................
2017: May 17th: 22 mm
2017: To date: 642.5 mm
2016: 1,660 mm
2015: 430.5 mm

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#1408316 - 18/02/2017 13:40 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Rhubarb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2011
Posts: 749
Loc: West End, Townsville, QLD
Maybe clutching at straws here, but have been playing about to see if there is ANY hope for us in the next few weeks.

This image is Surface Dew Point/Wind for 27/02/2017 ...

May be something brewing in the Coral Sea?? Anyone agree???

_________________________
Rhubarb
Slightly damp!!

Rainfall
2017: May 19th: 46mm
2017: May 18th: 113 mm Whopee ..................
2017: May 17th: 22 mm
2017: To date: 642.5 mm
2016: 1,660 mm
2015: 430.5 mm

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#1408324 - 18/02/2017 14:33 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Dawgggg]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7766
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
Tell the farmers that and you would get shot lol


Farming is no different to tourism. You have your good years and your horrendous years. I will have a few shots with them at the Bar the next good year they have when they spend big on a nice holiday to Broome with the family. That way they can help tourism at the same time.
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#1408326 - 18/02/2017 14:36 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Lani Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 999
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
Final run on the BOM weather map next friday almost looks like that low might head towards the qld coast. Can only hope smile
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2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1408328 - 18/02/2017 14:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7766
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
I guess they could name this system as a TC. It might sneak into QLD area of responsibility for an hour or so reach 34knts on half the exposed LLCC and get a tick of approval.
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#1408350 - 18/02/2017 15:44 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3127
Loc: Broome


One thing that I've noticed especially this year is there seems to be a lesser chance of TCs forming when there is a strong monsoonal flow and lots of low pressure troughs around.
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#1408480 - 18/02/2017 22:51 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7766
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Yeah considering its meant to be an above average year with 10-11 or more cyclones to form. At this stage we only have a marginal CAT 1 in WA. I guess at least the social media platforms flogging to death the cyclone formations this season, they might get to 10-11 talked up fails by the end of the year.
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#1408491 - 19/02/2017 03:35 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Dawgggg Offline
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Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23510
Loc: Townsville
How many did the BOM forecast?
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#1408502 - 19/02/2017 07:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
Latest GFS has it breaking away from the GOC mid week, crossing the base of the Top End to the JBG, then across the Kimberley to the Indian Ocean. In the GOC it's going to have too much dry air intrusion to amount to much although BOM still having it maxing out at cat 2.

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#1408521 - 19/02/2017 09:57 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Ronfishes]
Ronfishes Offline
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Registered: 25/02/2013
Posts: 3186
Loc: Gordonvale
Originally Posted By: Ronfishes
Pretty sure Burketown just scored highest Feb 24hr total.


Boroloola now too.
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#1408525 - 19/02/2017 10:43 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Brett Guy Offline
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Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4844
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Don't lose hope. 10-11 cyclones for the season just means the next month and a half is going to be insane wink. Seriously though this will likely go down as one of the worst predictions ever. Question is do we know exactly WHY it has been so bad and what climatological factors are the causes?

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#1408543 - 19/02/2017 12:18 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Dawgggg Offline
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Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23510
Loc: Townsville
Atlantic has been bad too, just not completely dead like ours.

Our ACE is horrendeous.
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#1408546 - 19/02/2017 12:23 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Dawgggg]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7766
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
How many did the BOM forecast?

I am not sure on exact numbers. You lose faith in 'predictions' and short and long term 'model reliance' especially when they often forecast 5% chance of rain and we cop 50mm+ half an hour later. The occasional 'stick their heads out the window and have a look' forecast would be better sometimes.
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#1408547 - 19/02/2017 12:24 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
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Loc: Broome

Predicting TC status anyway as it spins away in the GoC.

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#1408548 - 19/02/2017 12:26 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7766
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Let's see if their 'prediction' is on the money this time.
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#1408549 - 19/02/2017 12:27 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Popeye]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
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Originally Posted By: Popeye
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
How many did the BOM forecast?

I am not sure on exact numbers. You lose faith in 'predictions' and short and long term 'model reliance' especially when they often forecast 5% chance of rain and we cop 50mm+ half an hour later. The occasional 'stick their heads out the window and have a look' forecast would be better sometimes.

The Bureau's outlook had a 67% chance of more TC's than usual (11) for this season in the Australian region.

Also, looking out the window is absolutely useless for predicting what a TC season will be like, let alone many aspects of weather beyond a few hours.

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#1408550 - 19/02/2017 12:32 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7766
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
It's become a bit of a ongoing laughing joke in Broome amongst the weather crew. Last year we got most of our rains and heavy falls when it was forecast 0% or 5% chance. When it was 95% we got nothing. Thats were my 'stick your head out the window forecast' means something. How do you explain this absolute failure of forecasting.
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#1408551 - 19/02/2017 12:32 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
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Furthermore, the seasonal TC outlooks are NOT based on computer models. They use the past relationships between SOI and the SST anomalies in the NINO 3.4 region of the equatorial eastern central Pacific.

Incidentally, back when the Bureau's seasonal TC outlook was issued for this season, the EC model's seasonal outlook for tropical storm activity was lower than average for the Australian region as a whole.

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#1408553 - 19/02/2017 12:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7766
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Maybe they need to focus more on the IOD instead as this was the driver of alot of our weather this year and I believe has influenced things in recent years aswell.
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#1408555 - 19/02/2017 12:39 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7766
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
But yeah its hard to predict weather.
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#1408556 - 19/02/2017 12:40 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Brett Guy Offline
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Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4844
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
In the long run it can only be a learning experience for modellers and those making the predicitions. Is it time that TC predictions stopped being based on such limited criteria? or is that the only option as we are in the dark about other contributing factors?

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#1408559 - 19/02/2017 12:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7766
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Maybe limiting the criteria even further may be more accurate. Why include data from 30-40-50-60-70 years ago when possibly things have changed enough to warrant using only the last 30 years of data to get a more realistic current estimate of cyclone numbers.
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#1408562 - 19/02/2017 12:51 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4356
Slightly off-topic for a sec but still related to TC's in general, up til recent years, research findings about future long term trends in TC activity was mixed and there was no tight consensus.

But in more recent years, a growing amount of climate change research has been predicting TC's to continue becoming fewer in many ocean basins around the world (the NW Pacific might be a bit different though) but of the high-end intense ones that do manage to occur, they're likely to continue becoming even more intense (and TC's venturing into higher latitudes than before). The confidence about this has become higher but there's still some uncertainty about it with some mixed signals.
One of the main suspected factors is shear becoming more hostile in the tropics.

It does appear that this trend has already started to be observed in recent years in many ocean basins but it's still a bit too early to tell whether it's a transient phase or part of the true long term trend.

Of course, that will be howled down/ridiculed/ignored by the usual people but nevertheless, it is interesting.


Edited by Ken Kato (19/02/2017 12:53)
Edit Reason: added stuff

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#1408572 - 19/02/2017 14:11 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Tempest Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2001
Posts: 3568
That's interesting Ken, I'd say it would be near impossible to predict a long term trend, let alone the current and following seasons.

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#1408589 - 19/02/2017 15:21 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7766
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Cheers Ken. Interesting to hear.
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#1408594 - 19/02/2017 15:39 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3127
Loc: Broome
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato

One of the main suspected factors is shear becoming more hostile in the tropics.




That's certainly has been the case off the W.A coast this year.
May have been a contributing factor in keeping a few of the lows from forming and moving off the coast.
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#1408679 - 19/02/2017 19:53 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
divho Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/09/2002
Posts: 369
Loc: Brisbane
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato

Of course, that will be howled down/ridiculed/ignored by the usual people but nevertheless, it is interesting.


Seriously, was that necessary ?

As a public face of the BOM you are just as bad with that arrogance.

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#1408683 - 19/02/2017 20:01 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4356
Seriously, did you even have to ask?
Was I referring to you? NO.
Did I call you arrogant or make a personal insult against you? NO.
And I'm not a public face of the BoM.
Get your facts straight before you start throwing accusations around of being arrogant.

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#1408689 - 19/02/2017 20:04 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: divho]
bbowen Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/03/2011
Posts: 113
Settle down, and he isn't the public face of the BOM. That is you who falsely assigns that.

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#1408692 - 19/02/2017 20:07 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: divho]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23510
Loc: Townsville
Originally Posted By: divho
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato

Of course, that will be howled down/ridiculed/ignored by the usual people but nevertheless, it is interesting.


Seriously, was that necessary ?

As a public face of the BOM you are just as bad with that arrogance.


Have a snickers mate.



Edited by Dawgggg (19/02/2017 20:07)
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#1408751 - 19/02/2017 21:10 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17243
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Slightly off-topic for a sec but still related to TC's in general, up til recent years, research findings about future long term trends in TC activity was mixed and there was no tight consensus.

But in more recent years, a growing amount of climate change research has been predicting TC's to continue becoming fewer in many ocean basins around the world (the NW Pacific might be a bit different though) but of the high-end intense ones that do manage to occur, they're likely to continue becoming even more intense (and TC's venturing into higher latitudes than before). The confidence about this has become higher but there's still some uncertainty about it with some mixed signals.
One of the main suspected factors is shear becoming more hostile in the tropics.

It does appear that this trend has already started to be observed in recent years in many ocean basins but it's still a bit too early to tell whether it's a transient phase or part of the true long term trend.

Of course, that will be howled down/ridiculed/ignored by the usual people but nevertheless, it is interesting.


Good read.

As you say it may be just part of a cycle ,however since BoM made a statement regarding this several years back it has been quite accurate. Time will tell if it was just good timing or there has been a permanent change .
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#1408760 - 19/02/2017 21:18 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Brett Guy Offline
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Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4844
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Just to be the devils advocate here. Has that prediction(which definitely seems to be fairly close to the mark atm)been a reactionary one as we seem to get with ENSO or did it precede the beginning of the trend?


Edited by Brett Guy (19/02/2017 21:23)

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#1408797 - 19/02/2017 23:04 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1737
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Good old climate change, More storms, less storms, stronger storms, weaker storms, flood, drought, fire or famine, it doesn't matter what it is as Climate Change fits all criteria and any old cause can be thrown in there, BOM predicts about 11 storms and they don't eventuate....Climate Change.

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#1408799 - 19/02/2017 23:10 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: marakai]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1721
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: marakai
Good old climate change, More storms, less storms, stronger storms, weaker storms, flood, drought, fire or famine, it doesn't matter what it is as Climate Change fits all criteria and any old cause can be thrown in there, BOM predicts about 11 storms and they don't eventuate....Climate Change.


Ken was referring to specific modelling signals for changing trends in cyclone activity. He wasn't attributing every weather phenomenon on the planet. I would add however that the very nature of 'climate change' is that it affects every aspect of the weather.

It's also disappointing when you get such vitriolic statements. Instead of discussing things rationally people always seem to jump to extremes when arguing about climate change. I guess that's why we can't discuss it here anymore even though it is such an important and relevant matter related to the weather we talk about on the forums.

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#1408801 - 19/02/2017 23:13 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4356
marakai: Thanks for proving my point I made in my previous post. Textbook example. Maybe try and make an effort to learn about it and be interested in it just for once in your life rather than constantly mocking it. As predictable as night following day.

And trying to predict TC frequency for a single season is NOTHING like predicting their overall long term trend. It's like trying to compare short term weather with long term climate. Apples and oranges. Classic example of the lack of knowledge of even the most basic principles of climate.
Thanks also for reminding me why I don't often bother posting in here anymore.

Brett Guy: Hard to say I think because even before the observed trend, there were some (but not all) studies that were suggesting fewer TC'- just that the proportion's grown since then. Unlike things temps and extreme rainfall events, things like TC's and thunderstorms are still far more uncertain.

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#1408807 - 19/02/2017 23:32 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Nature's Fury]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1737
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Originally Posted By: marakai
Good old climate change, More storms, less storms, stronger storms, weaker storms, flood, drought, fire or famine, it doesn't matter what it is as Climate Change fits all criteria and any old cause can be thrown in there, BOM predicts about 11 storms and they don't eventuate....Climate Change.


Ken was referring to specific modelling signals for changing trends in cyclone activity. He wasn't attributing every weather phenomenon on the planet. I would add however that the very nature of 'climate change' is that it affects every aspect of the weather.

It's also disappointing when you get such vitriolic statements. Instead of discussing things rationally people always seem to jump to extremes when arguing about climate change. I guess that's why we can't discuss it here anymore even though it is such an important and relevant matter related to the weather we talk about on the forums.


Vitriolic ?

vitriolic
ˌvɪtrɪˈɒlɪk/
adjective
adjective: vitriolic

filled with bitter criticism or malice.
"vitriolic attacks on the politicians"
synonyms: acrimonious, rancorous, bitter, caustic, mordant, acerbic, astringent, acid, acrid, trenchant, virulent, spiteful, crabbed, savage, venomous, poisonous, malicious, malignant, malign, pernicious, splenetic; nasty, mean, cruel, unkind, harsh, ill-natured, evil-intentioned, vindictive, scathing, searing, biting, barbed, wounding, stinging, tart, sharp, rapier-like, razor-edged, cutting, withering, sarcastic, sardonic, irascible;


I made no mention of any group in my post, I made no comment on any group in my post, I didn't mention Ken, I didn't disparage anybody at all.
All I did was make an observation.

Rational conversation starts when both sides are open to discussion rather than assuming that the other side of the debate are ignorant or have nothing to contribute and argue from a sense of authority rather than engagement.

Please show me where I was vitriolic, condescending or wrong in my post above. I was not the one who started with the Climate Change part of this discussion, I merely made a comment.

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#1408810 - 19/02/2017 23:43 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1737
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
marakai: Thanks for proving my point I made in my previous post. Textbook example. Maybe try and make an effort to learn about it and be interested in it just for once in your life rather than constantly mocking it. As predictable as night following day.

And trying to predict TC frequency for a single season is NOTHING like predicting their overall long term trend. It's like trying to compare short term weather with long term climate. Apples and oranges. Classic example of the lack of knowledge of even the most basic principles of climate.
Thanks also for reminding me why I don't often bother posting in here anymore.

Brett Guy: Hard to say I think because even before the observed trend, there were some (but not all) studies that were suggesting fewer TC'- just that the proportion's grown since then. Unlike things temps and extreme rainfall events, things like TC's and thunderstorms are still far more uncertain.


How about some basic tenants of science in that mix Ken ? Lets start with the predictive ability of an hypothesis and what happens when it fails, do we throw it out and start again or just tweak the numbers some more until they tell us what we want to hear ?

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#1408811 - 19/02/2017 23:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Aussea Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 23/01/2012
Posts: 30
Loc: Buderim, QLD
Hey Ken. Please continue to bother to post!! One of the major draw cards of this weather forum for me apart from the local real time reporting from the community - are your Posts. Seriously. If I couldn't grab an insight of yours now and then particularly during major weather events - I would not bother to come back to this weather forum TBH.

I may not contribute that much on here; and ahem, are still gazing according to the Weatherzone forum ranking, but I hugely respect your posts and depth of knowledge. Thanks for your long standing efforts and the enlightenment!.

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#1408817 - 20/02/2017 01:07 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Blair Trewin Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3656
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
It's true that climate models generally lean towards a future outcome of fewer TCs but more intense ones, but in both cases the projected trends are sufficiently weak that we would not expect to see them in the data as yet.

There's not much evidence yet of a trend in the total number of TCs globally, which is remarkably stable from year to year - anything outside a range of 75 to 95 is pretty rare. (This is partly because El Nino/La Nina have opposite effects in different basins, so an inactive season in the Australian region will often be active in the Northeast Pacific, for instance). The last decade has been rather inactive by historic standards in the Australian region and further east in the South Pacific, but rather active in the northeast Pacific and Atlantic.

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#1408825 - 20/02/2017 07:52 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
tag Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/12/2010
Posts: 477
Loc: Alligator creek
So, what is this low doing ???. Almost had to go back a full page to see the last actual comment for this LOW.

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#1408826 - 20/02/2017 08:00 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Hopefull Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 995
Loc: Burpengary QLD
Maybe we could go to the Moderators and start a thread on these sort of topics accepting the facts that it will get contentious and emotional and insults will fly as long as we can get over it and move on. I have learnt that when I got some well deserved tirades of critisism. It is better than the forums dying. Then again maybe it is a really bad idea.
Cheers everybody.

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#1408833 - 20/02/2017 08:31 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
tsunami Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 985
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Uptake in low...FIZZER .
Until we get out of this neutral stage between lanina and elnino. Nothing is going to really get going
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#1408834 - 20/02/2017 08:37 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Hopefull Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 995
Loc: Burpengary QLD
And that is one of the contentious points. For us here in SE QLD does enso really matter anymore? I have no idea.

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#1408843 - 20/02/2017 09:34 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4356
It's official - the low has now become Cat 1 TC Alfred.

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#1408848 - 20/02/2017 10:16 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14148
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
Formed in NT and doing a loop according to the track map.
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#1408849 - 20/02/2017 10:19 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Brett Guy Offline
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Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4844
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Will it remain a TC longer than the WA travesty earlier in the year? wink

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#1408856 - 20/02/2017 11:43 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
tag Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/12/2010
Posts: 477
Loc: Alligator creek
Yes it is sad when we count cyclone's life in hours rather than the usual days.
C'mon Alfred, do us some good and put hope where little now exists.

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#1408865 - 20/02/2017 12:57 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Delta-T Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 28
Loc: Peachester
Ken, I'd also rather read more of your enlightening posts than fewer.

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#1408867 - 20/02/2017 13:12 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3127
Loc: Broome

Let see what Alfred is capable of ...so far only a short life of just over a day predicted.
Doing a bit of a dance in the Gulf atm then a big swing to the west on Wednesday morning .

Details of Tropical Cyclone Alfred at 9:30 am ACST [10:00 am AEST]:

Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 55 kilometres of 15.4 degrees South 137.2 degrees East, estimated to be 120 kilometres northeast of Borroloola and 190 kilometres south southeast of Alyangula.

Movement: south southeast at 8 kilometres per hour.


Tropical cyclone Alfred is expected to remain at category 1 intensity as it moves slowly southeast towards the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast. The cyclone is expected to cross the coast west of the NT / Queensland border early Tuesday
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1408876 - 20/02/2017 14:29 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4356
Thanks Aussea and Delta-T smile And +1 ColdFront.

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#1408878 - 20/02/2017 14:43 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7766
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Haha I went to search for this system on JTWC and was greeted with this on their page.

'No Active Tropical Warnings in the Northwest Pacific, North Indian Ocean, Central Pacific, Eastern Pacific, or Southern Hemisphere.'

Must be blowing 34.2knts somewhere in there.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1408879 - 20/02/2017 14:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7766
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Oh Hang on I found this

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.9S 136.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 135.3E, APPROXIMATELY
250 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 182355Z MHS AMSU-B METOP-A
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A MOSTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER LAND, WITH FLARING
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE MOST RECENT ANIMATED RADAR LOOP
IMAGERY FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA SHOWS PRECIPITATION TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC WITH VERY LITTLE STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SITS IN AN AREA WITH GOOD POLEWARD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20
KNOTS), BUT ITS DEVELOPMENT IS BEING HINDERED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WEST OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE DISTURBANCE QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH LITTLE TO NO
INTENSIFICATION INDICATED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1408880 - 20/02/2017 14:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7766
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Even BOM is not sure whether its a cyclone or not. Its been named TC Alfred yet in their most recent Technical Bulletin they mention at the end.
'There is the possibility of a cyclone formation within the next 12-24hours.'
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1408881 - 20/02/2017 14:52 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4844
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Centre Island(NT) at the bottom of the Gulf seems to be getting the best of it. 40plus kts sustained gust to 59

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#1408888 - 20/02/2017 16:19 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3127
Loc: Broome

Not doing much in the last few hours .Could be causing its own demise .
Surface water in some parts of the GoC could be cooling down after getting so much cooler rain dumped into it.

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 15.5 degrees South, 137.2 degrees East , 115 kilometres east northeast of Borroloola and 200 kilometres south southeast of Alyangula .

Current movement: south southeast at 6 kilometres per hour .
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1408932 - 20/02/2017 21:25 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 149
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: Popeye
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
How many did the BOM forecast?

I am not sure on exact numbers. You lose faith in 'predictions' and short and long term 'model reliance' especially when they often forecast 5% chance of rain and we cop 50mm+ half an hour later. The occasional 'stick their heads out the window and have a look' forecast would be better sometimes.

The Bureau's outlook had a 67% chance of more TC's than usual (11) for this season in the Australian region.

Also, looking out the window is absolutely useless for predicting what a TC season will be like, let alone many aspects of weather beyond a few hours.


Ken, I have to admit,I really enjoy the professionalism shown within your posts. Maybe those who have a shot at the BOM should have a crack at the forecasting and interpretation of the modelling, to better appreciate the service they offer - and measure the actuals against the forecast om the day.

For those who want to learn, like myself, it's great to see a representative of BOM (even in an unofficial capacity) adding value to the discussions - especially when the reality of a severe Tropical Cyclone is just off our doorstep (ie: Larry, Yasi or Ita).


Edited by MangroveJack70 (20/02/2017 21:28)

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#1408933 - 20/02/2017 21:31 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Aussea]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 149
Originally Posted By: Aussea
Hey Ken. Please continue to bother to post!! One of the major draw cards of this weather forum for me apart from the local real time reporting from the community - are your Posts. Seriously. If I couldn't grab an insight of yours now and then particularly during major weather events - I would not bother to come back to this weather forum TBH.

I may not contribute that much on here; and ahem, are still gazing according to the Weatherzone forum ranking, but I hugely respect your posts and depth of knowledge. Thanks for your long standing efforts and the enlightenment!.



Totally agree.

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#1408945 - 20/02/2017 22:14 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ronfishes Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2013
Posts: 3186
Loc: Gordonvale
Could be a lowest temp for Feb today with 23.1c @ 0905 for Boroloola. This p!$$ little system has knocked down a few records at least.
_________________________
MTD: 24.4mm
2016-2017 wet season: 1317.8mm
YTD: 1268.8mm

Opinion is not fact.

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#1408954 - 21/02/2017 00:02 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Delta-T Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 28
Loc: Peachester
Could be the only cyclone to almost cross the Qld coast this season.

There, that should help prime things a bit.

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#1408956 - 21/02/2017 00:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7766
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Hope the OCC boys are onto this one. Nice little CAT 1 to get the season rolling for them.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1408957 - 21/02/2017 00:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
hickory Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/01/2006
Posts: 1096
Loc: Holloways Beach QLD
It's an insult calling the bloody thing a cyclone !

Sydney get stronger August westerlies than this thing.

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#1408958 - 21/02/2017 01:26 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3127
Loc: Broome
Looks like Alfred is going to die a tragic death..

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1408959 - 21/02/2017 01:30 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3127
Loc: Broome

Was going to say long live the king ..but seems a bit useless now. frown
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1408979 - 21/02/2017 10:04 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
There's been massive dry air intrusion on the western side of the system. Yesterday RH dropped close to 30% at the 10 metre level in several places, higher it's lower. Dry air intrusion was also a killer last wet season.

Consensus seems to be that ex-Alfred will hang for a while then accelerate across the base of the Top End and disappear into the Indian Ocean.

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