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#1408231 - 17/02/2017 21:17 SEQLD/NENSW Scattered Thunderstorms, possibly severe - 17th-19th February 2017
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 9977
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
There has been thunderstorm activity today, mainly in NENSW on the North West Slopes, onto the Northern Tablelands, and (mostly) the coastal foothills of the MNC. Also storms about the western parts of QLD's Darling Downs today. Thunderstorms look likely to occur over most areas of SEQLD & NENSW tomorrow and (especially) Sunday. Severe storms are a decent possibility, favouring places on the ranges and coastal foothills.

P.S. If you're looking for pre-event discussion, it took place in the Day-to-day thread: http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...eat#Post1408156


Edited by Seabreeze (17/02/2017 21:24)
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
February 2017 Rainfall: 52.6mm (Feb Avg. 170.7mm) // February 2017 Raindays: 9 (Feb Avg. 14.0 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 168.4mm (Jan-Feb Avg. 318.3mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 28 (Jan-Feb Avg. 27.5 raindays)

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#1408248 - 18/02/2017 00:03 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Scattered Thunderstorms, possibly severe - 17th-19th February 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 9977
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Thundery rain tonight has brought 13mm here.

During this evening, storms brought 95km/h wind gusts to Tamworth, 87km/h gusts to Armidale and 85km/h gusts to Moree.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
February 2017 Rainfall: 52.6mm (Feb Avg. 170.7mm) // February 2017 Raindays: 9 (Feb Avg. 14.0 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 168.4mm (Jan-Feb Avg. 318.3mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 28 (Jan-Feb Avg. 27.5 raindays)

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#1408264 - 18/02/2017 07:22 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Scattered Thunderstorms, possibly severe - 17th-19th February 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3961
Great work as always Seabreeze smile

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#1408265 - 18/02/2017 07:39 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Scattered Thunderstorms, possibly severe - 17th-19th February 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 828
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Nice morning so far
Hope for a sprinkle later and fireworks tommorrow arvo
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1408273 - 18/02/2017 08:46 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Scattered Thunderstorms, possibly severe - 17th-19th February 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1347
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Hoping to get absolutely smashed either today or tomorrow smile
_________________________
If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1408276 - 18/02/2017 08:54 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Scattered Thunderstorms, possibly severe - 17th-19th February 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1480
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the S Wes...
Had a small cell this morning. looks to be headed for the coast.
_________________________

Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch50 and ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.

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#1408311 - 18/02/2017 12:56 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Scattered Thunderstorms, possibly severe - 17th-19th February 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 613
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Thundery rain last night delivers 6.1mm here.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1408329 - 18/02/2017 14:46 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Scattered Thunderstorms, possibly severe - 17th-19th February 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
PlumbBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/05/2011
Posts: 460
Loc: Ashmore Gold Coast
Hope something exciting eventuates here GCoast tomoz, steer winds 'BSCH' are from the NW pushing any developments SE, so need something to start up from Briz / Ippy ways to find the GCoast ? At least the Springbrook & Tambo heigh areas wont hinder their route as much if somthing forms there tomorow ?
nensw should be the prime location in general tho !

Seeing only moderate moisture on the skew-T Sundy-arv - & only to the 400hpa mid-level height, bit dry'ish above that - any thoughts ??

Bit different to the average run-off-the-mill set-ups flows from the WSW I reckon, maybe work for or against ??

Atleast another interesting weather period for a couple o days !!


Edited by PlumbBob (18/02/2017 14:50)
_________________________
Weather or not ?

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#1408340 - 18/02/2017 15:28 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Scattered Thunderstorms, possibly severe - 17th-19th February 2017 [Re: ozone doug]
wilyms Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 77
Loc: Roma, Qld
Originally Posted By: ozone doug
Had a small cell this morning. looks to be headed for the coast.


More cells firing up to the west now for round 2!

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#1408368 - 18/02/2017 16:11 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Scattered Thunderstorms, possibly severe - 17th-19th February 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Stormwithin Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 02/12/2016
Posts: 43
That one around Toogoolawah-ish area is exploding!

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#1408391 - 18/02/2017 17:02 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Scattered Thunderstorms, possibly severe - 17th-19th February 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
DanubeRS Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/10/2010
Posts: 246
Loc: Ormiston, SE QLD
I just love it when you see things like this. ACCESS-C for anyone curious poke


Edited by DanubeRS (18/02/2017 17:02)

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#1408421 - 18/02/2017 18:28 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Scattered Thunderstorms, possibly severe - 17th-19th February 2017 [Re: PlumbBob]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1130
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: PlumbBob
Hope something exciting eventuates here GCoast tomoz, steer winds 'BSCH' are from the NW pushing any developments SE, so need something to start up from Briz / Ippy ways to find the GCoast ? At least the Springbrook & Tambo heigh areas wont hinder their route as much if somthing forms there tomorow ?
nensw should be the prime location in general tho !

Seeing only moderate moisture on the skew-T Sundy-arv - & only to the 400hpa mid-level height, bit dry'ish above that - any thoughts ??

Bit different to the average run-off-the-mill set-ups flows from the WSW I reckon, maybe work for or against ??

Atleast another interesting weather period for a couple o days !!


I don't ever recall recently (since I moved up here two years ago) severe storms coming in from the NW, most of the storms that hit the GC area generally come in from the SW or West at best. Will be interesting, however when supercell storms are about, I believe from what I have read in these forums, they can buck the trend and go in any direction. Maybe Ken or someone else can clarify if any storms in the past have came in from a northerly direction.

If any storms formed just south of the border, I wouldn't hold my breath them reaching the GC

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#1408422 - 18/02/2017 18:31 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Scattered Thunderstorms, possibly severe - 17th-19th February 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
wilyms Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 77
Loc: Roma, Qld
STW (Damaging winds) out for the Warrego area incl Roma and St George

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#1408425 - 18/02/2017 18:42 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Scattered Thunderstorms, possibly severe - 17th-19th February 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1480
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the S Wes...
OK looks like i might get some real rain soon in about 30mins .yay
_________________________

Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch50 and ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.

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#1408426 - 18/02/2017 18:42 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Scattered Thunderstorms, possibly severe - 17th-19th February 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
redbucket Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 221
Loc: Regency Downs, Lockyer Valley
Looks like Doug is in for a storm! Good luck mate, hope you get a solid drop!

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#1408427 - 18/02/2017 18:45 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Scattered Thunderstorms, possibly severe - 17th-19th February 2017 [Re: DanubeRS]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 687
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Huge
Nice.

Originally Posted By: DanubeRS
I just love it when you see things like this. ACCESS-C for anyone curious poke

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#1408433 - 18/02/2017 19:17 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Scattered Thunderstorms, possibly severe - 17th-19th February 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 791
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Gleno, something I've noticed here over the years is storms that come in from the nw are often hailers. No clue why though.

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#1408436 - 18/02/2017 19:25 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Scattered Thunderstorms, possibly severe - 17th-19th February 2017 [Re: gleno71]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3961
Originally Posted By: gleno71
I don't ever recall recently (since I moved up here two years ago) severe storms coming in from the NW, most of the storms that hit the GC area generally come in from the SW or West at best. Will be interesting, however when supercell storms are about, I believe from what I have read in these forums, they can buck the trend and go in any direction. Maybe Ken or someone else can clarify if any storms in the past have came in from a northerly direction.

Storms coming from the NW are a bit uncommon but they do occur sometimes. The more typical direction is from the W or SW.

There's pros and cons to the NW steering. On one hand, if any storms move across or form over the Brisbane Valley ranges, they don't have to endure as long a trip over flat terrain to reach Brisbane. On the other hand, I haven't seen too many storms coming from the NW which have been destructive (there has been some exceptions though).

And yeah, supercells usually deviate from the tracks of non-severe cells, sometimes up to almost 90 degrees to them but they don't move in completely random directions. Whether they deviate to the left or right (or both) of non-severe cells depends a lot on the directional shear.

BTW overnight/early morning storms for coastal SE QLD look unlikely but not impossible. Will post a map soon.

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#1408440 - 18/02/2017 19:39 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Scattered Thunderstorms, possibly severe - 17th-19th February 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1480
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the S Wes...
Cranking out here 103 kmh at my place.Gave the BOM a ring .
_________________________

Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch50 and ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.

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#1408442 - 18/02/2017 19:44 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Scattered Thunderstorms, possibly severe - 17th-19th February 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6016
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
If GFS / ACCESS-R / G are right then we get something out of this. If EC is right then we get 10 drops.

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