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#1408225 - 17/02/2017 20:52 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Jimi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 734
Loc: Cammeray
Currently in Taree heading for Port Macq. The route has elongated my storm experience today. It looks good on the Grafton radar

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#1408226 - 17/02/2017 20:55 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Petar @ Sdny Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/03/2007
Posts: 526
Loc: South West Sydney
Looks like the Southerly change may hit earlier than expected. It is progressing up the South Coast at present.
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#1408237 - 17/02/2017 21:42 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1466
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Still action around Gosford.

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#1408238 - 17/02/2017 21:47 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Petar @ Sdny]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1466
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Originally Posted By: Petar @ Sdny
Looks like the Southerly change may hit earlier than expected. It is progressing up the South Coast at present.


Think around Ulladulla now Petar


@ Greg
hope all ok regarding the fire you mentioned.


Edited by Knot (17/02/2017 21:50)

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#1408239 - 17/02/2017 21:47 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3085
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
A warm, very humid night with broken cloud and stars. Distant lightning to the North and North East.

EDIT: I don't think that's the real Southerly on the South Coast now, but ithe real change will be in Sydney by mid morning. It seems to have more puff than recent changes, so I don't thimk tomorrow will be a 'hot Southerly' day like we've had reccently, at least not after mid morning in Sydney.


Edited by Steve777 (17/02/2017 21:53)

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#1408240 - 17/02/2017 21:59 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Petar @ Sdny Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/03/2007
Posts: 526
Loc: South West Sydney
Originally Posted By: Steve777


EDIT: I don't think that's the real Southerly on the South Coast now, but ithe real change will be in Sydney by mid morning. It seems to have more puff than recent changes, so I don't thimk tomorrow will be a 'hot Southerly' day like we've had reccently, at least not after mid morning in Sydney.


I think you are on the mark Steve.

Also wanted to say I enjoy reading your posts.
_________________________
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#1408244 - 17/02/2017 22:28 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1466
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
So another sneaky southerly before the real deal arrives.

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#1408250 - 18/02/2017 00:12 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Knot]
Muggy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/02/2014
Posts: 116
Loc: Gosford, Central Coast, NSW
Originally Posted By: Knot
Still action around Gosford.


lost internet in this storm although a lot tamer than the one we had earlier. Heard reports of widespread power outages across the central coast. No trains between Gosford and Morriset for a while due to lightning strikes affecting signals etc. Been a wiild arvo/night and possibly more action tomorrow!

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#1408251 - 18/02/2017 01:35 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8277
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Today is bordering on very dangerous storm-wise, very unstable, strong jet, strong shear and turning at 900hpa - it's a recipe for something significant. Storms should start firing early and persist through the day, perhaps turning into an MCS later on as the trough deepens and potentially spins into an ECL (as per earlier model runs).

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#1408259 - 18/02/2017 02:58 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5289
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Encountered a heavy shower on the way back form town tonight,after a lit night. poke poke
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 13

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th

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#1408262 - 18/02/2017 04:20 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
poida84 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/04/2002
Posts: 589
Loc: buxton,wollondilly
Buxton NSW 2:48am this morning not much to say just very sudden and quick good thing dogs hate storms wake me up otherwise would not heard since hard of hearing and all grin

Narure's Fury by petar belobrajdic, on Flickr

Narure's Fury by petar belobrajdic, on Flickr

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#1408266 - 18/02/2017 07:41 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 201
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Not too sure why BoM lowered the chance to 80% and removed severe from the forecast. Today looks to be worse than yesterday.

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#1408271 - 18/02/2017 08:27 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3085
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Petar - thank you.

Poida - great captures

------

The Southerly arrived in Sydney at around 6:30AM - sunrise. It's fairly weak. It feels more like a sea breeze, but I expect that it will freshen later.

The BOM has really backed off rainfall totals for Sydney - now only 4 - 9 mm for today and tomorrow.

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#1408277 - 18/02/2017 08:57 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Muggy]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1522
Loc: Orange, NSW
Originally Posted By: Muggy
lost internet in this storm although a lot tamer than the one we had earlier. Heard reports of widespread power outages across the central coast. No trains between Gosford and Morriset for a while due to lightning strikes affecting signals etc. Been a wiild arvo/night and possibly more action tomorrow!



Lightning up there looks to have caused a couple of fires near Mangrove Dam - apparently look to have been burning for some time, so must have started last night but not spotted until the morning.
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#1408278 - 18/02/2017 08:59 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
DerekHV Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 628
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
11.8mm in total for the last 24 hours, still better than nothing.
Looking at another 36'er again today, here's hoping that will be the last such temp or above this season. (although there is a chance we may still get this in March, quite easily).


Edited by DerekHV (18/02/2017 09:00)

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#1408281 - 18/02/2017 09:17 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
greg.l Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
Another warm morning here, I don't think there's much chance of rain today.
My grapes are ripening well, time to put out the bird netting. My European plums ripened so well they got to 26 brix, so sweet the fruit flies can't get into them - too much osmotic pressure. The fruit flies are well into the apples, but I still should be able to make some cider.

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#1408282 - 18/02/2017 09:25 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Muggy]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1466
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Originally Posted By: Muggy
No trains between Gosford and Morriset for a while due to lightning strikes affecting signals etc. Been a wiild arvo/night and possibly more action tomorrow!


I was sheltering directly opposite Wyong station when a bolt that probably caused it struck just to the north of station. It was a seriously nasty bolt, although there were many other bolts north and south of the station. I know storms can cause inconvenience, damage and even loss of life which are all regrettable. But to feel the hairs on your arms standing up (cant stand up on my head as I havent got any he he he) with all the charged air and smell tha ozone is exhilirating.

So is this weak pathetic puff from the south that reached Sydney this morning but has not reached here 3 hours later, the expected one?

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#1408290 - 18/02/2017 10:20 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 425
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Hunter coastal forecast doesn't even have a southerly at all today. It does look to have stalled on central coast.

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#1408291 - 18/02/2017 10:29 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3085
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
It's quite a weak Southerly, like the last couple. There's no sign of a 'real Southerly' on the South Coast, winds are mostly around 10 knots. I expect that winds will gradually freshen here and scud cloud will build up, again like the last couple of changes.

The change, such as it is, seems to be a bit North of Norah Head. It will gradually crawl Northwards.

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#1408293 - 18/02/2017 10:44 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
DerekHV Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 628
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Originally Posted By: Steve777
It's quite a weak Southerly, like the last couple. There's no sign of a 'real Southerly' on the South Coast, winds are mostly around 10 knots. I expect that winds will gradually freshen here and scud cloud will build up, again like the last couple of changes.

The change, such as it is, seems to be a bit North of Norah Head. It will gradually crawl Northwards.



Is the same weak Southerly that stops Sydney OH from ever breaking it's February record? (while every other one is being destroyed in Feb 2004 and Feb this year)

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