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#1408249 - 18/02/2017 00:11 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7765
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Originally Posted By: Mick10
large chunks of our states drought declared farmers disagree


Half the images of QLD in drought look like a good season in WA. I have no doubt it has been dry over there and the farmers are doing it tough but what do they expect farming in Australia and on marginal land..... I guess they have to take the good with the bad years.
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#1408252 - 18/02/2017 01:42 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Hopefull Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 993
Loc: Burpengary QLD
What is marginal land? Is all of SEQLD marginal land ?

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#1408253 - 18/02/2017 02:16 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8281
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Yeah because flooded WA needs it more aye Popeye

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#1408254 - 18/02/2017 02:26 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7765
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Yeah bring it on. Most towns in the Pilbara barley average 180mm a year and yet all we hear about in QLD is people having a sook about only getting 290 or 350 or 500mm compared to the averages of 500 700 1100mm and call drought drought drought. Even the Victorians when they had an epic drought seemed to deal with it and move along. I know that is harsh but like I said its Australia. Take in the words of the National Anthem 'droughts and flooding rains' its part and parcel of the continent drought. If SE QLD only got half their average for a year or two well they need to suck it up and deal with it. Also if they are farming cattle in inland Central/Nth QLD where its dry marginal land, you have to expect drought.
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#1408255 - 18/02/2017 02:36 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7765
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
30 kms inland of Tropical Broome in November last year before the first rains.

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#1408256 - 18/02/2017 02:44 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7765
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Anyway wonder if this one will even get to TC status? Follow the trend of promising but then gets shredded by shear or something and fizzles.
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#1408257 - 18/02/2017 02:44 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
tsunami Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 985
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Have another whisky popeye and relax. Different areas have different rainfall its all realitive to the area
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#1408258 - 18/02/2017 02:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
tsunami Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 985
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Nice picture popeye
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#1408260 - 18/02/2017 02:59 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7765
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Haha. You can tell it's a quiet year when I have to resort to having a go at qlders. Well thinking about that I do that quite often haha. Cheers and yep putting the last red wine away just now.
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#1408261 - 18/02/2017 04:09 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
tsunami Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 985
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Gotta have a bit of rivalry as qld is allways in front
For instance 1st to see the sun
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#1408269 - 18/02/2017 08:09 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4844
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
looks like a dogs breakfast on radar frown. Really hope it gets back over water

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#1408270 - 18/02/2017 08:13 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Dawgggg Offline
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Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23510
Loc: Townsville
[censored] house system.
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#1408275 - 18/02/2017 08:51 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1557
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the S Wes...
Nice photo Popeye,Yeah it looks to be dying out in the gulf.
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#1408283 - 18/02/2017 09:49 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Popeye]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23510
Loc: Townsville
Originally Posted By: Popeye
Originally Posted By: Mick10
large chunks of our states drought declared farmers disagree


Half the images of QLD in drought look like a good season in WA. I have no doubt it has been dry over there and the farmers are doing it tough but what do they expect farming in Australia and on marginal land..... I guess they have to take the good with the bad years.


Easy to sit back and say that after a good wet season after a few wines.

Tell the farmers that and you would get shot lol

Marginal land runs the beef industry in Australia lol



Edited by Dawgggg (18/02/2017 09:49)
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#1408284 - 18/02/2017 09:56 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
bbowen Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/03/2011
Posts: 113
Cmon all lets get back on topic, or at least get the ruler out. Geez.

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#1408285 - 18/02/2017 10:07 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23510
Loc: Townsville
Lets get the ruler out.

Will be more interesting than Pops lame trolling lol

He used to be witty. Your slippin pops.


Edited by Dawgggg (18/02/2017 10:08)
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#1408286 - 18/02/2017 10:09 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4352
As with most systems in the Gulf (or anywhere near land for that matter), the uncertainty about its future intensity and track is often high since the area is surrounded on three sides by land. Just a tiny shift in its position can mean the difference between the system staying a low or rapidly becoming an intense TC.

The Bureau's current technical bulletin sums it up well:

REMARKS:
The tropical low has moved westwards after crossing the coast in the southern
Gulf of Carpentaria, remaining over land. The low level centre appears to have
become exposed on the northern side of intermittent convection.

Dvorak analysis is unavailable due to the system moving over land.

CIMSS satellite winds indicate that the system lies in an environment favourable
for development with low vertical wind shear and dual outflow channels evident.
Sea surface temperatures are sufficiently warm at 30 degrees around the southern
Gulf of Carpentaria waters. As a result, it is anticipated that the system may
form into a tropical cyclone if it moves back over water and that it could reach
category 2 intensity later on Sunday, but this will be highly dependent on the
system taking a track over water during the next 24 to 48 hours.

The recent movement of the system has been westwards, due to a middle level
ridge building to the south. As the mid level steering turns more southeasterly
the system is expect to turn towards the northwest before curving towards the
northeast later today today or Sunday when an amplifying upper trough from the
southwest breaks down the steering influence, resulting in a recurving of the
system towards the east later in the weekend.


The 1st image below shows the spread of potential intensity of the system among some of the models (NOTE that the intensity scale is based on the hurricane scale so TS = Cat 1 in Australia).

2nd and 3rd images show the spread of potential tracks among some of the models and also ensembles.

The 4th image shows the probabilities of TC formation during the 48 hours until 10pm Sunday EST based on several TC ingredients analysed by satellite and what's actually happened in the past i.e. the percentage of times in the past when a system's developed into a TC given the current ingredients:









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#1408289 - 18/02/2017 10:20 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1493
Loc: Kingaroy
Why is everything that forms in the gulf always going west these days? Surely we have to get a south east moving system soon.

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#1408292 - 18/02/2017 10:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ronfishes Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2013
Posts: 3184
Loc: Gordonvale
Pretty sure Burketown just scored highest Feb 24hr total.
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2016-2017 wet season: 1317.8mm
YTD: 1266.6mm

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#1408301 - 18/02/2017 11:40 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Rhubarb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2011
Posts: 749
Loc: West End, Townsville, QLD
Good explanation Ken!

This is the latest from JTWC .. a very confused system frown

WTPS21 PGTW 171830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161821ZFEB2017//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 161830). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 138.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR
17.0S 137.7E, APPROXIMATELY 85 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MORNINGTON
ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 171702Z MHS NOAA-19 89GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT WEAKENING
CORE CONVECTION OVER AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDING EVIDENT IN MOST RECENT ANIMATED
RADAR LOOP FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND AIRPORT RADAR. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH DIFFLUENT
OUTFLOW LIGHT (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER, AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF THE SYSTEM IS INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT. MODEL
GUIDANCE DEPICTS QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON
DETERIORATED CONDITIONS AS THE SYSTEM MOVED OVER LAND, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM. THIS CANCELS REF A.//
NNNN
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Rhubarb
Slightly damp!!

Rainfall
2017: May 19th: 46mm
2017: May 18th: 113 mm Whopee ..................
2017: May 17th: 22 mm
2017: To date: 642.5 mm
2016: 1,660 mm
2015: 430.5 mm

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