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#1407862 - 15/02/2017 21:05 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1058
Loc: Warwick, QLD
A little better here with a total of almost 165mm since Dec. 1 2016. 9.5mm today. expecting 10-20mm on Sun. That would be nice. We were actually 35mm above normal for Jan. Very isolated however as some areas around here were not so lucky.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1407886 - 16/02/2017 07:42 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1188
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
So are we not talking about the current possibility of upcoming rain so we dont jinx it? Forecasts looking quite nice this morning, cooler temps and possible rain from Sat.
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Jimbour rain: 2018-382, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6, May-9.5, June-21.5, July-2, Aug-8.5, Sept- 17, Oct-202.5

2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1407887 - 16/02/2017 07:47 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Lani]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5458
Originally Posted By: Lani
So are we not talking about the current possibility of upcoming rain so we dont jinx it? Forecasts looking quite nice this morning, cooler temps and possible rain from Sat.

There's actually already been a fair bit of discussion about that on the previous page. I also posted a graph.

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#1407894 - 16/02/2017 08:55 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Stormwalker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/11/2013
Posts: 77
I'll be cleaning my gutters just in case. Which means no rain. poke

I can probably counter that by putting the sprinklers on though.

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#1407973 - 16/02/2017 18:12 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1188
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
Lol Ken, I saw your graph (love those pretty piccies) but only a couple of others have really commented. Though I've noted the Yr forecast has backed off this arvo while Elders forecast is saying possible rain 6 out of the next 7 days. The BSCH has backed of this arvo too but I can hope. Looks much cooler next week regardless! Is that high in the Tasman blocking the lows coming down?? (Or am I way off)
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2018-382, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6, May-9.5, June-21.5, July-2, Aug-8.5, Sept- 17, Oct-202.5

2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1407974 - 16/02/2017 18:19 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3265
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Looks to be a bit of a trough system through central Qld looks to stay perched for a little bit and then moves east. The graph picks up on it well over the forecast period. The big question is if its in the form of widespread rain or hit or miss thunderstorms. Havnt looked to closely yet as I think the previous page has summed it up well.

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#1408070 - 17/02/2017 09:27 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1822
Loc: Kingaroy
What we need is a trough to catch a low or cyclone in the gulf and send it down this way.

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#1408121 - 17/02/2017 13:40 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1188
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
I should have clarified the High I was looking at was on the BOM weather maps next Wednesday while there appears to be two lows up North and in the coral sea and was wondering if those Highs down South are the ones that seem to block our rain at times?
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2018-382, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6, May-9.5, June-21.5, July-2, Aug-8.5, Sept- 17, Oct-202.5

2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1408146 - 17/02/2017 15:37 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3343
Loc: Buderim
Sunday seems to have some moderate storm potential, but a more northerly NW set up than I can recall seeing, so curious to see how it plays out. And worried that the normal theme of storms struggling to get much north of Brisbane will be even worse under such steering.

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#1408156 - 17/02/2017 15:58 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5458
All good Lani smile

Sunday's still looks interesting to me with the stronger shear Mike but as is often the case, there's a few questions to be answered e.g. where the leading edge of the cloud band and precip is going to be by Sun morning (the later, the better), the coastal component of the change becoming less defined by the time it gets here, whether the thing is going to turn into a thundery rain band or whether there's going to be a number of severe cells.
Still looks as though some places could get a big dump of rainfall and should still be storms in the region regardless of cloud cover/precip amounts.

EC still has decent instability around. Although I don't usually look at EC CAPE since it tends to have undesirable characteristics due to the way it's calculated, here's an EC CAPE + winds for Sun afternoon anyway below (you can see some outflow boundaries starting to develop in the winds on that map due to the storms):



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#1408189 - 17/02/2017 17:50 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3551
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Very colourful map Ken, CHEERS.
Is that why we suddenly have a BOM forecast of 20-50mm for Sunday? Looking good.

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#1408190 - 17/02/2017 17:54 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2214
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
BOM has upped the forecast rain and added the gusty/severe storms possible which is good.

Unfortunately I think that with the NW'ly steering severe storms that form in the earlier phase will slide right on by inland. Those of us on the coast are probably going to have to wait until the rain band moves coastal. I'd also rather be inland or south of Brisbane on the day.

Would be nice to see hail as a threat. We haven't had any hailstorms in SEQ this year I don't think but I'm guessing heavy rain and strong winds will be the main action once again.

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#1408191 - 17/02/2017 17:56 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3551
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
No hail thank you, but bucketloads of rain instead please.

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#1408199 - 17/02/2017 18:42 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
signalman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2010
Posts: 93
Loc: Warwick (Qld)
Yes indeed Elf and hope it extends a bit westward to the Downs. Maybe a little tonight with approaching fairly minor storm activity currently heading east out of the Maranoa/Western Downs. Just revisited Warwick data for the Summer. Since 1 Dec last year to today Warwick has experienced 60 days above 30C of which 28 days above 35C, two of those being over 40C and constituting consecutive day extreme maximums for Warwick of 42.2C and 42C on 11/12 Feb. As of today Warwick has had 21 consecutive days above 30C. From 31 Dec to today we have had 11 days above 35C. On the rainfall side of things for Summer - Dec total 34.8mm ; Jan total 119mm and Feb so far 13.4mm although a lot of Warwick itself may have received only a mm or so. Lucky Eye2Sky in West Warwick reported 9.5mm. So - we need rain desperately plus some moderation in what has been no doubt the hottest Summer ever for Warwick and the Southern Downs. Will be looking with great interest at BOM summary comments for Summer for not only here in Warwick but I guess all of Southern and South-Western Queensland. It wont paint a pretty picture unless things turn around quickly.

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#1408221 - 17/02/2017 20:11 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7260
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Both EC & GFS have next to nothing for us lol

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#1408228 - 17/02/2017 20:58 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Mega]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2214
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Mega
Both EC & GFS have next to nothing for us lol


Probably the worst possible setup for you. Northern edge of the trough and strong NW'ly steering. Let us know if you get a single rain drop.

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#1408229 - 17/02/2017 21:08 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3265
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Looks a descent set up though, nice shear profile a bit straight line but I assume the surface will be NE'ly.

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#1408232 - 17/02/2017 21:17 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Nature's Fury]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7260
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Originally Posted By: Mega
Both EC & GFS have next to nothing for us lol


Probably the worst possible setup for you. Northern edge of the trough and strong NW'ly steering. Let us know if you get a single rain drop.


Oh don't worry I will! poke EC has a heavy band of thunderstorms moving through Brisbane and the southern Sunshine Coast during Sunday evening. The northern part of this band is weak, almost dead, by the time it reaches the coast up here. Doesn't help that the upper trough is rapidly weakening and sliding south from Sunday evening. See this is why I never get excited over these frontal systems anymore, these models 7 days out spread rain throughout yet as it gets nearer say 3 or so days, it all disappears north of Brisbane. Worst season as far as both storms and rain goes for us, I can't remember a season as bad as this.

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#1408236 - 17/02/2017 21:38 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7260
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
And IF we don't get anything from this, we'll go close to breaking our driest February on record since there's no further rain or storm events in sight.

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#1408279 - 18/02/2017 09:14 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1822
Loc: Kingaroy
The drought map will change in a big way in April with the south east corner being drought declared along with most of southern Queensland. The water restrictions have already started in Kilkivan and Goomeri.


Edited by Chris Stumer (18/02/2017 09:16)

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