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#1408903 - 20/02/2017 18:17 Vic - a brief return to warm weather 26-28/2/17 - the "last hurrah" for 2016/17 Summer warm days?"
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6391
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
It looks like me may get a warm day in Vic this coming Wednesday, then return to coolish (by February standards) weather till next Sunday onwards??

Dont know yet how warm, but surmising circa 34-37C in Vic's southern sector???

Could next weeks warm day (or two?) be the warmest/equal warmest we reach for the remainder of this summer/autumn season?

.....just a conversation starter, post your own guesses up! - nothing wrong with a bit of speculation eh?



....ooops, first time I've noticed a IMGUR site busy notice like this, tried to re-do the attachment - so hope the image "comes good" by itself later!?


Edited by Petros (20/02/2017 18:21)

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#1408942 - 20/02/2017 21:56 Re: Vic - a brief return to warm weather 26-28/2/17 - the "last hurrah" for 2016/17 Summer warm days?" [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2190
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Thanks petros no storm chasing for us for long while yet.

Warm air-mass returning to Northern Victoria tomorrow to stay warm to hot until most days of GFS chart update.

For South of divide rages real warmth to hot likely this Wednesday and next week Tuesday, Wednesday.
as other days will be average 20c to 25c.

If keep clear days then Melbourne City Building heats up to give warmth too.

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#1409040 - 21/02/2017 18:29 Re: Vic - a brief return to warm weather 26-28/2/17 - the "last hurrah" for 2016/17 Summer warm days?" [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6391
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Re potential air-mass temps into next week, this is GFS's latest guess:



..... all the purple hot areas inland Aus have disappeared over the past days, and look to remain the same into March!

I think I speak for us all in that the chances of a searing NW'ly extremely hot event for Vic is now looking very unlikely for the remainder of this summer???

We can look forward to, and enjoy, "Indian Summers" through March/April hopefully smile

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#1409063 - 21/02/2017 20:28 Re: Vic - a brief return to warm weather 26-28/2/17 - the "last hurrah" for 2016/17 Summer warm days?" [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5676
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Originally Posted By: Petros
Re potential air-mass temps into next week, this is GFS's latest guess:



..... all the purple hot areas inland Aus have disappeared over the past days, and look to remain the same into March!

I think I speak for us all in that the chances of a searing NW'ly extremely hot event for Vic is now looking very unlikely for the remainder of this summer???

We can look forward to, and enjoy, "Indian Summers" through March/April hopefully smile


Hope you're right Petros! Still, wouldn't quite rule out a stray 40C reading (or close to it) for the Mallee region between now about about mid-March.

I just hope we get a few stormy days tossed in before the end of April. smile

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#1409096 - 22/02/2017 07:35 Re: Vic - a brief return to warm weather 26-28/2/17 - the "last hurrah" for 2016/17 Summer warm days?" [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5676
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 14.8C, currently around 16C and sunny, apart from some high cirrus clouds moving down from the northwest. Much warmer than this time yesterday! smile

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#1409125 - 22/02/2017 12:42 Re: Vic - a brief return to warm weather 26-28/2/17 - the "last hurrah" for 2016/17 Summer warm days?" [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2190
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Lovey 30c at 12pm and was cool of 11.1c overnight.

Thanks "Indian Summers"

Our Easterly dip High Pressure still continue with troughs to make SW winds weaken and NW winds don't last either is good.

But not in this tread yet is heatwave is looming after March 3rd from Half of West Australia too early yet.

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#1409150 - 22/02/2017 18:51 Re: Vic - a brief return to warm weather 26-28/2/17 - the "last hurrah" for 2016/17 Summer warm days?" [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6391
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
After 28C Mon/34 C Tues mooted by GFS next week, it now extends the warm spell to include Wednesday:

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#1409155 - 22/02/2017 19:44 Re: Vic - a brief return to warm weather 26-28/2/17 - the "last hurrah" for 2016/17 Summer warm days?" [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5676
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Nice! Bring it on! Yay!! smile

Reached a nice hot 34.4C here in Belgrave, and at the last check it was still around 29C. Wunderbar! grin

The hot Sun was offset by a fresh, cooling northerly breeze while I was in the City. Still a bit breezy atm, with high cirrus clouds.

Despite the TFB, the rain we had recently has been more than enough to halt the bushfire risk in my area. smile

The cool change appears to be sluggish over Western Victoria, so I can look forward to a balmy evening here in Melbourne. smile

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#1409162 - 22/02/2017 20:23 Re: Vic - a brief return to warm weather 26-28/2/17 - the "last hurrah" for 2016/17 Summer warm days?" [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2190
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Reached at 34c 5pm light winds

Now warm at 8pm of 30c stable no winds.

Dry cool change overnight help easy sleep.




Edited by chasers addict (22/02/2017 20:23)

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#1409171 - 22/02/2017 22:00 Re: Vic - a brief return to warm weather 26-28/2/17 - the "last hurrah" for 2016/17 Summer warm days?" [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5676
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Getting noticeably cooler here in Belgrave, around 25C at the last check. The change is moving into Melbourne's west now, and should cross into our side of the Bay in around an hour or so. smile

No storms or at least heavy rainfall with it sadly. But hoping we get at least a couple of showers in the morning to moisten the place up a tad more. smile

Edit: actually it's getting warmer! Around 26C right now, but it doesn't quite feel it though with this breeze.


Edited by aussiestormfreak (22/02/2017 22:04)

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#1409180 - 22/02/2017 23:44 Re: Vic - a brief return to warm weather 26-28/2/17 - the "last hurrah" for 2016/17 Summer warm days?" [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5676
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
The cool change moved in around 20 minutes ago. We had a very late temperature spike beforehand, peaking at 28.6C at 11:18pm! eek crazy

Still around 24C atm, so the change is fairly weak. poke

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#1409184 - 23/02/2017 07:36 Re: Vic - a brief return to warm weather 26-28/2/17 - the "last hurrah" for 2016/17 Summer warm days?" [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5676
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 14.5C, currently around 15C, calm and sunny. smile

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#1409257 - 23/02/2017 18:21 Re: Vic - a brief return to warm weather 26-28/2/17 - the "last hurrah" for 2016/17 Summer warm days?" [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6391
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Didnt notice any cool change here last night, woke to 16.9C and a sunny 30C day recorded here today smile

Latest GFS run continues to show a last "extreme heat Hurrah" for SE Aus is now looking unlikely:



Most BOM reports are for a dry period to come, so fires will still flare, but hopefully in manageable weather conditions for the remainder of this Vic fire season?


Edited by Petros (23/02/2017 18:28)

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#1409286 - 23/02/2017 22:08 Re: Vic - a brief return to warm weather 26-28/2/17 - the "last hurrah" for 2016/17 Summer warm days?" [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5676
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
It wasn't a "proper" cool change Petros, sure the temperature did cool down nicely in my neck of the woods after the late-evening spike, but today was only a few notches cooler than yesterday. poke

Reached a warm, mostly sunny 28.8C here in Belgrave today. Pity I was again stuck indoors in the City for the most part, but I got to enjoy a pleasant evening outdoors, before it got too cold after 8:30pm. Currently around 17C. smile

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#1409325 - 24/02/2017 11:14 Re: Vic - a brief return to warm weather 26-28/2/17 - the "last hurrah" for 2016/17 Summer warm days?" [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5676
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 14.0C, currently around 18C and overcast.


Edited by aussiestormfreak (24/02/2017 11:16)

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#1409326 - 24/02/2017 11:45 Re: Vic - a brief return to warm weather 26-28/2/17 - the "last hurrah" for 2016/17 Summer warm days?" [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 539
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Overcast. Calm. Some early fine drizzle but not enough to stop dust on the road.

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#1409376 - 24/02/2017 17:16 Re: Vic - a brief return to warm weather 26-28/2/17 - the "last hurrah" for 2016/17 Summer warm days?" [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5676
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a top of only 21.2C here in Belgrave today. Apart from a short-lived warm-up when the Sun briefly broke through around mid-afternoon, it's been coolish and cloudy all day. Currently around 18C. Almost no wind, and no rain whatsoever. poke

Looking forward to the much warmer summerlike weather to come from Sunday onwards! At least it won't be too hot (or too cold either lol). wink

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#1409392 - 24/02/2017 19:27 Re: Vic - a brief return to warm weather 26-28/2/17 - the "last hurrah" for 2016/17 Summer warm days?" [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6391
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
This last warm period for the 2016/17 summer looks to be prolonged, but modest, going by latest GFS run:


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#1409400 - 24/02/2017 20:18 Re: Vic - a brief return to warm weather 26-28/2/17 - the "last hurrah" for 2016/17 Summer warm days?" [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2190
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Peteros, Aussie is coming late Cooking pan so South Victoria is on edge of pan

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#1409427 - 25/02/2017 00:24 Re: Vic - a brief return to warm weather 26-28/2/17 - the "last hurrah" for 2016/17 Summer warm days?" [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5676
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
I wouldn't necessarily call it the last warm period for the 2016/2017 summer season. We can get hot spells/heatwaves well into March, and the occasional one in April, with a few last final warm spells in May before winter sets in. smile

Since my last post we've had a tad more excitement weatherwise. But if you call a few glimpses of blue sky around dinnertime and a few light showers and drizzle around 10pm "excitement", then that's all I got. poke

Otherwise, a calm, coolish and mostly cloudy evening, with temperatures around 17-18C while I was down in Wantirna South and later Endeavour Hills with my family and friends. It stayed dry, except for those light sprinkles of rain I mentioned while in Endeavour Hills around 10pmish. smile

Back home here in Belgrave it's around 14C. smile

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