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#1409448 - 25/02/2017 09:44 Re: Vic - a brief return to warm weather 26-28/2/17 - the "last hurrah" for 2016/17 Summer warm days?" [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5791
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 9.1C, currently around 15C and partly cloudy. smile

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#1409472 - 25/02/2017 13:18 Re: Vic - a brief return to warm weather 26-28/2/17 - the "last hurrah" for 2016/17 Summer warm days?" [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2264
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
I agree, we can get Warm to Hot in March or April if lucky until the Sun move away thats when the heatwave in Outback weaken and cold night increasing.

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#1409498 - 25/02/2017 18:05 Re: Vic - a brief return to warm weather 26-28/2/17 - the "last hurrah" for 2016/17 Summer warm days?" [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 597
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
The drizzly day forecast for this area did not eventuate. Cloud 6/8 in morning cleared gradually to about 3/8 by late afternoon. Clouded up around 5pm then looking like drizzle a possibility but nothing so far. Mild with little wind. Several days of sun on the way.


Edited by ThunderBob (25/02/2017 18:05)

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#1409499 - 25/02/2017 18:06 Re: Vic - a brief return to warm weather 26-28/2/17 - the "last hurrah" for 2016/17 Summer warm days?" [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6548
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
....but March isn't Summer!

Yep we can get hot weather in March. Anybody betting that we will experience any?

GFS for next week still looks to be warm (but not "hot" by locational standards for this time of the year):




....and at this stage no significantly wet change to follow this spell.

A dryish Autumn looms? - better tips on this are available on the ESNO thread.

A heavily overcast day here with persistent SE'ly breeze, 21C atm, I recorded 24C max (which might have been the temp when I reset my gauge last evening).


Edited by Petros (25/02/2017 18:08)

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#1409508 - 25/02/2017 18:45 Re: Vic - a brief return to warm weather 26-28/2/17 - the "last hurrah" for 2016/17 Summer warm days?" [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 597
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
If someone gave me decent odds, I might bet on a "last hurrah" in mid-March - not that's there's anything particularly in the models to suggest it (looking, eg, at extended GFS.

I'm not a "tropical watcher" (and certainly have no skill) but the tropics do look to have gone very quiet and indications seem to be for them to stay that way. So, without a significant shift in the south, I wouldn't be expecting rain of any consequence in the near future.

What, Petros, would be necessary to set up an ECL situation at this time of year?

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#1409520 - 25/02/2017 21:07 Re: Vic - a brief return to warm weather 26-28/2/17 - the "last hurrah" for 2016/17 Summer warm days?" [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5791
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Err yes you're right Petros, yes March ISN'T summer. March is autumn. Sorry for the confusion, I should've mentioned the 2016/2017 warm season in general, not summer specifically, my bad. blush

Reached a warm, mostly sunny top of 25.0C here in Belgrave. Perfect weather for being down in Box Hill and later in Glen Waverley, except for a rather coolish breeze from the south. smile

Last time I checked it was around 17.0C. A cool night ahead, but looking forward to the warmer weather ahead! smile

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#1409582 - 26/02/2017 09:05 Re: Vic - a brief return to warm weather 26-28/2/17 - the "last hurrah" for 2016/17 Summer warm days?" [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5791
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 11.1C, currently around 18C and sunny! smile

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#1409584 - 26/02/2017 09:21 Re: Vic - a brief return to warm weather 26-28/2/17 - the "last hurrah" for 2016/17 Summer warm days?" [Re: Petros]
exKNMI Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 09/02/2014
Posts: 2
For us oldies, Petros, the Autumn Equinox will always happen around the 21st of March, whether meteorologists like the "neatness" of the 1st of the month or not. So for me, when day and night are of equal length - at the end of Summer - it is Autumn. Can't fool the sun OR the moon :-D

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#1409589 - 26/02/2017 10:04 Re: Vic - a brief return to warm weather 26-28/2/17 - the "last hurrah" for 2016/17 Summer warm days?" [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1803
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Good point exKNMI, this summer period has certainly been odd in our bit of Gippsland compared to other years, very low rainfall and some wind, but can't remember a 40C or above day.

Unless of course a hot one hit when we were in Marlo/Hobart during Jan.

Very dry here, bgr all rain in the last 3 months and everything has dried off again after the handy 17mm a few weeks back. 20C no wind and blue skies here atm.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-18mm to 0900 20th.

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#1409618 - 26/02/2017 14:54 Re: Vic - a brief return to warm weather 26-28/2/17 - the "last hurrah" for 2016/17 Summer warm days?" [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5791
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Lovely hot day here in Belgrave, although the Sun has a sting to it lol. smile

At the last check it was around 31C. Good thing I opted NOT to wear a windcheater down in Dandenong this morning, totally unnecessary! wink

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#1409648 - 26/02/2017 18:28 Re: Vic - a brief return to warm weather 26-28/2/17 - the "last hurrah" for 2016/17 Summer warm days?" [Re: ThunderBob]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6548
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: ThunderBob


What, Petros, would be necessary to set up an ECL situation at this time of year?


TB - I bet you know more about these than I do given your age and location wink

Anyhow, to share my own experience (so what I write here is my own interpretation only, based on observations I've recorded since the early '80's, for GIPPSLAND (only)):

There's two creators:

1. From an Easterly Dip. Only possible during summer/early March - created by a prolonged heat low over NSW/QLD that has persisted for many days. The low pressure system "sags down" over Vic, and with moist NE'ly infeed coming in from a warm ocean off Sydney, sets off rainfall in SE Vic - including the possibility of a ECL off SE NSW.

In fact the above scenario is a low possibility of developing into the week after next going by GFS this arvo (rain at Merimbula):



2. The other, most typical as I'm sure your aware, is the cut-off low. This can happen at any time of the year. Typically preceded when the AusSatIR shows a thick NW cloud band steaming into Vic all the way from circa Pt Headland in WA. If the arrival of this "moisture band" is in place when a cold air "cold change" system streams into Vic from the SW heading NE, this can leave a localised low pressure system over SE Vic, even though the initiating system has swept by us to NZ.

Its these (No.2) systems that make our (N Gippy) long term rainfall stats "flat" for every month of year (our rainfall is non seasonal). For N Gippy, it basically doesn't rain, or we get deluged by an ECL!



Today we had a fresh SSE'ly and mild sunny day (after a "jumper-on" evening last night) 26C.

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#1409649 - 26/02/2017 18:39 Re: Vic - a brief return to warm weather 26-28/2/17 - the "last hurrah" for 2016/17 Summer warm days?" [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5791
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a top of 32.0C here in Belgrave in the end, nice and hot and sunny, with a cooling breeze. Currently around 26C. And similar weather coming up for the next week! Yay!! =D

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#1409769 - 27/02/2017 12:10 Re: Vic - a brief return to warm weather 26-28/2/17 - the "last hurrah" for 2016/17 Summer warm days?" [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2264
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Easterly Dip been doing it for most of January then February short SW/W cool winds the now back to Easterly Dip.

East and South of Victoria get isolated showers and rest of West Half dry to Hot.

No storm-chasing for us for another week as East Victoria is chance

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#1409796 - 27/02/2017 16:37 Re: Vic - a brief return to warm weather 26-28/2/17 - the "last hurrah" for 2016/17 Summer warm days?" [Re: Petros]
Weather_Viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 260
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
According to my PWS it hit 35.3C here in Tarneit, outer southwestern suburbs of Melbourne. Definitely warmer than forecast, tomorrow looks to be the same if not warmer in my opinion.
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#1409801 - 27/02/2017 17:12 Re: Vic - a brief return to warm weather 26-28/2/17 - the "last hurrah" for 2016/17 Summer warm days?" [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 597
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Thanks Petros. Sorry I didn't respond quicker - was looking at the wrong thread. Unfortunately me age hasn't necessarily made me wiser.

again, thanks for the effort with the scenarios.

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#1409805 - 27/02/2017 17:29 Re: Vic - a brief return to warm weather 26-28/2/17 - the "last hurrah" for 2016/17 Summer warm days?" [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1803
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Led you astray tb, apols, started to look ahead to what may happen o/s this threads parameters.

It reached 28C (so far) today, slight breeze and blue skies.





Edited by samboz (27/02/2017 17:37)
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-18mm to 0900 20th.

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#1409809 - 27/02/2017 17:33 Re: Vic - a brief return to warm weather 26-28/2/17 - the "last hurrah" for 2016/17 Summer warm days?" [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5791
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a hot 36.9C on my thermometer here at home in Belgrave today... but I doubt it actually got THAT hot! Sure was toasty, but more likely to have been around 33-34C. poke

Overnight low of 14.4C btw. A cool morning when I left for work at 7:30am, just comfortable enough to walk around without needing pants or a windcheater, even though some cars (not including mine lol) had dew on them. smile

Looked hazy at times, especially towards the north and west (particularly this morning on my way to Boronia), but otherwise a hot, dry, mostly sunny day with a slight cooling breeze. smile

At the last check it was around 33C. Looking like another balmy evening, and then another hot day tomorrow. wink


Edited by aussiestormfreak (27/02/2017 17:36)

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#1409812 - 27/02/2017 17:49 Re: Vic - a brief return to warm weather 26-28/2/17 - the "last hurrah" for 2016/17 Summer warm days?" [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6548
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
A cool foggy 13C morning cleared to a fine mild 29.6C here with a nice seabreeze.

BBQ conditions!

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#1409903 - 27/02/2017 23:22 Re: Vic - a brief return to warm weather 26-28/2/17 - the "last hurrah" for 2016/17 Summer warm days?" [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2264
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Looks very interesting as I surprised that Low pressure trough will burst heavy rain with East flow tropical all along SE QLD to East/SE Victoria for rest of next week.

Thunderstorms would more likely inland mixing with heat.

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#1410019 - 28/02/2017 18:31 Re: Vic - a brief return to warm weather 26-28/2/17 - the "last hurrah" for 2016/17 Summer warm days?" [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6548
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
A cool foggy 14.5 C morning cleared to a fine mild 34C here with a nice (late) seabreeze.

BBQ conditions (again)! - I think I'll "crack a can"

We escaped another devastating summer!! Dams still healthy, tame fire season (with apologies to those who did get impacted by fire), paddocks have still got (albiet burnable) dried grass on them, and no searing 4 day hot events with 40++ temps and howling NW'ly winds ahead of gusty SW'ly changes. smile smile

Bring on the Indian summers! - I'm sure the majority of us enjoy those!

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