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#1409196 - 23/02/2017 10:23 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
greg.l Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
If you live on the inland side of the ranges you just have to accept that you will miss out on this coastal stuff. Sometimes you might get lucky and cop a storm or two but otherwise you just have to make sure you have enough water in your dams and tough it out. Spring rain is the most important, if you get a good spring youcan count your blessings.
That still doesn't make it fun getting through the hot dry spells, with no knowing when it will end. It is dry as ... anything out here, makes me nervous about fires. The kangaroos will be moving down to the roadsides again soon, should keep the panekbeaters busy.

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#1409198 - 23/02/2017 10:34 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Rob G Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/07/2003
Posts: 636
Loc: Porters Retreat NSW
Well Im right on top the GDR here at 1260m. Weve had little in the way of showers from the Tasman Sea this summer because of persistent stable high pressure ridging up the NSW coast. This ridging brings moisture laden E to SE winds and showers on the coastal fringe to perhaps 70km inland, but beyond that (where we are) the air stream turns NE: too stable and warm for showers. Also affecting us is the blocking effect of the Blue Mountains and Kanangra Boyd (both east of the GDR).

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#1409206 - 23/02/2017 11:38 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9497
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Yes GR - it does indeed work both ways.

My poor mum could never wrap her head around the fact that when it was pouring at The Entrance it was often dry out here and Vice Versa. smile

We had stack of rain in winter and that really gave the plant world a huge lift, tree/shrub growth around me was clearly greater than most years and we had almost exuberant growth.

It's all struggling terribly now. I notice 100 year old elms and oaks with burnt off leaves around the joint for instance. Clearly well established but struggling all the same.

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#1409208 - 23/02/2017 11:59 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
greg.l Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
In this weather deciduous trees can start to go dormant in preparation for autumn and shed some leaves in order to reduce evaporation. It looks a bit ugly but usually the trees will survive, though some may die. My creek is full of willow leaves, the willows have already shed most of their leaves. It spoils the autumn colours a bit but helps the trees to survive.
It is very good weather at the moment for vineyards, if they don't have too much water stress. The reputation of areas like Orange, Canberra and Young for good wine has been improving lately, we keep getting these good vintages.

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#1409210 - 23/02/2017 12:10 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
slotmachine Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/11/2007
Posts: 196
Loc: Newcastle
West of the GDR just gets a lot less rain.

600mm annually at Bathurst, 1200mm at obs hill

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#1409211 - 23/02/2017 12:15 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9497
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Yes trees in survival mode now.

Greg - not a fan of noble rot? smile

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#1409217 - 23/02/2017 13:08 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Rob G Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/07/2003
Posts: 636
Loc: Porters Retreat NSW
BoM's latest rain and temperature outlook has been published for autumn: outlook

It looks like more of the same - warm and dry. Will be a tough winter this year if this prediction is correct.

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#1409218 - 23/02/2017 13:11 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9497
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Not a fun outlook there Rob.

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#1409223 - 23/02/2017 13:25 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3269
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Looks like Eaterlies as far as the eye can see after tomorrow. The trouble with Easterlies, everyone gets what they don't want.

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#1409224 - 23/02/2017 13:32 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: GringosRain]
orangeroughy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2012
Posts: 640
Loc: Orange, NSW
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
remember it works both ways. It pissed down all winter on and west of the ranges and we got very little here due to the GDR.

I know its drying off everywhere, but I think that wet winter put central and SW NSW and the ranges in good stead for this hot summer.



The latest BoM soil water estimates for February show below average subsoil moisture for large parts of these regions so it looks like the bank account has been well and truly drawn down.
_________________________
NW Orange NSW 860m asl

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#1409225 - 23/02/2017 13:33 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5816
Loc: Wollongong NSW
What an awful run of weather coming up from tomorrow. I thought we may get lucky enough to escape week long spells of onshore winds for the whole summer. Today is the last pleasant day of summer 2017. Not overly warm though here, in fact a bit cold on the beach.


Edited by Wave Rider (23/02/2017 13:34)
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1409226 - 23/02/2017 13:37 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Rob G]
orangeroughy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2012
Posts: 640
Loc: Orange, NSW
Originally Posted By: Rob G
Well Im right on top the GDR here at 1260m. Weve had little in the way of showers from the Tasman Sea this summer because of persistent stable high pressure ridging up the NSW coast. This ridging brings moisture laden E to SE winds and showers on the coastal fringe to perhaps 70km inland, but beyond that (where we are) the air stream turns NE: too stable and warm for showers. Also affecting us is the blocking effect of the Blue Mountains and Kanangra Boyd (both east of the GDR).


During the recent severe Jan-Feb heatwaves, the prolonged, stationary mid level high pressure ridge that was deemed largely responsible was neatly parked over the NSW Central Ranges-Tablelands-Slopes-Plains. We were right in the bullseye. There is a map showing this in the BoM's recent Special Climate Statement on the event.
_________________________
NW Orange NSW 860m asl

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#1409228 - 23/02/2017 13:44 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: orangeroughy]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1260
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Originally Posted By: orangeroughy
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
remember it works both ways. It pissed down all winter on and west of the ranges and we got very little here due to the GDR.

I know its drying off everywhere, but I think that wet winter put central and SW NSW and the ranges in good stead for this hot summer.



The latest BoM soil water estimates for February show below average subsoil moisture for large parts of these regions so it looks like the bank account has been well and truly drawn down.


wow well imagine how bad it would be if you didnt get that wet lead in!

I havent seen the subsoil map for around here, but I would expect it would be quite dire. Digging with the excavator and there is just dust all the way down. Little bit of moisture on the clay 6 foot down, but next to nothing. 2005/06 was the last time I saw the ground like this here, and we had to run water into the dozer rips when were building a dam because there was no moisture to bond the key or dam wall. ECL 2007, heralded the big turn.....not going to enjoy it turning back if thats what is happening.

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#1409234 - 23/02/2017 14:19 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
greg.l Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
In the central Tablelands we haven't had a dry winter since 2006, so I guess we are about due one. Like a gambler riding his luck, I hope we can get one more lucky throw this winter and our streak continues.

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#1409236 - 23/02/2017 14:28 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3269
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Just had a look at the rainfall stats for Bathurst (Agricultural) for 2016-17.

2016 wasn't a bad year for rainfall. It finished about 25% above average. In paricular, June to September were very wet with close to or more than double the average rainfall in each month. The remainder of 2016 (Oct-Dec) was slightly below average (about 20% below).

But come New Year, someone turned off the big tap in the sky. The first two months of 2017 look like finishing with about 10% of the average rainfall.

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#1409238 - 23/02/2017 14:40 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9497
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
First half of 2016 was pretty dry too. We were running well behind average until the taps were turned on in a big way in Winter.

Jan 2016 was wet but Feb 2016 had 3.6mm, and March, April & May all below average as well. March & April well below.

We basically had 3 really wet months and a couple ok the rest very dry.

It's been a crazy yo yo over the last 14 months or so.

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#1409239 - 23/02/2017 15:15 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5045
Loc: Dural
WR.......nothing wrong with having a big night out and then rambling on here - lol.

I remember this time last year, the heat lovers were complaining like hell that we were under never ending scumtherlies and were having no summer. "Where have our summers gone" was the constant cry. Well, this summer we have had a proper summer. You know, the type of summer many of us elder folk remember as kids. But the heat lovers have generally gone quiet. Why?

Meanwhile, us coldie lovers have been the ones complaining.
This couldn't really have been a better summer for the heat lovers really.

I suppose my point is that the weather will never make everyone happy. Swings and roundabouts. The weather will always be like this and there ain't nothin' any of us can do about it except enjoy it for what it is - it's variability.

So, we are going to have a week of easterlies eh? That's the best news I've heard for about two months. It's just a break from the incessant heat (like today) and no doubt we will have some warmer days ahead although they are certainly likely to become rarer.

No doubt, come June/July, the heat lovers will be back while us cold lovers will be in our element.

Personally, as a cold lover, I have quite enjoyed this summer as a good old fashioned childhood memory, except for the lack of storms.
I'm hoping for payback in winter. Just remember, each of us only have to generally put up with our weather dislikes for about two months of each year (2 months of heat and 2 months of cold). The rest of the year is rather benign and very comfortable, which I suggest is almost perfect for all of us.
Most of us live in a very desirable climate.
Finally, I always wish that everyone gets their fair share of rain. That isn't always going to be possible either......unfortunately.

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#1409243 - 23/02/2017 15:57 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3269
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Re my last post, here are the rainfall numbers for Bathurst Agricultural since the start of 2016:

Code:
Rainfall	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Annual
2016	       95.6	3.6	42.0	20.4	39.7	113.1	103.0	94.4	129.8	56.2	44.0	53.1	794.9
% mean	       141%	6%	81%	48%	96%	253%	210%	191%	275%	95%	72%	80%	125%

2017	        7.0	4.8											
% mean  	10%	8%											
													
Mean	       67.7	58.4	51.7	42.1	41.5	44.7	49.1	49.5	47.2	59.1	60.7	66.1	637.8
Median	       57.9	47.8	41.0	37.2	33.7	36.8	43.3	46.9	42.4	53.9	55.4	59.8	


A mixed bag of rainfall.

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#1409244 - 23/02/2017 16:02 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9497
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
VERY MIXED smile Over all very wet but not in a linear fashion smile

Homer - it's scary that I now think that 33 is rather pleasant - gaaawwwd!! grin Shows the "conditioning" I've had this summer smile

35 again today out here. Not too bad evillaugh

5 days of official summer left. grin

autumn will be warm though as well I reckon - sadly smile

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#1409246 - 23/02/2017 16:04 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
greg.l Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
I got 910mm for 2016 and I only live 20K away from the ag station. Usually I get the same as bathurst but last year I got some extra falls. For a fair part of the year I actually beat Sydney, but the coast always comes out on top in the end.

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