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#1409262 - 23/02/2017 18:42 March 2017 Weather Report - Brisbane & SE Queensland
Scott Hansen Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/11/2015
Posts: 76
Loc: Aspley, Queensland
Hi Group,

I am going to post a new monthly weather report to this forum starting March 2017 for Brisbane & SE Qld, with hopefully better strike rate from my new algorithm system based upon past weather cycles and I'm straying more away from my past astrometeorology methods for the time being.
Let me know what you all think!

March 2017 Weather Report

Brisbane & SE Queensland, Qld


1st: Variable cloudiness with showers. (79% chance rain). Mostly cloudy with a couple of showers at night. (74% chance rain). SE winds @ 11-30 km/h.
22C - 27C. Storm Risk: 29%, 16 mm, Hours of Rain: 8.5 hours

2nd: Hazy sunshine and humid with a shower in spots . (40% chance rain). Overcast and humid with a shower at night. (58% chance rain). SE winds @ 9-28 km/h.
22C 28C. Storm Risk: 29%, 3 mm, Hours of Rain: 3.5 hours

3rd: Cloudy and humid with showers. (70% chance rain). Mostly cloudy and humid with a brief shower or two at night. (62% chance rain). ESE winds @ 7-24 km/h.
23C 30C. Storm Risk: 20%, 13 mm, Hours of Rain: 5 hours

4th: Humid; thunderstorms in the morning followed by a shower or thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon. (75% chance rain). Humid; a thunderstorm in spots in the evening followed by occasional rain and a thunderstorm late night. (56% chance rain). ESE winds @ 7-22 km/h.
23C 29C. Storm Risk: 40%, 18 mm, Hours of Rain: 6 hours

5th: Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a stray thunderstorm; humid. (41% chance rain). Partly cloudy and humid with widely separated thunderstorms at night. (41% chance rain). SE-ESE winds @ 7-24 km/h.
22C 30C. Storm Risk: 60%, 5 mm, Hours of Rain: 3 hours

6th: Mainly cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm around. (56% chance rain). Patchy clouds at night. (13% chance rain). SSE winds @ 17-41 km/h.
22C 29C. Storm Risk: 40%, 3 mm, Hours of Rain: 2 hours

7th: Considerable cloudiness. (3% chance rain). Partly cloudy night. (2% chance rain). SE winds @ 11-33 km/h.
20C 28C. Storm Risk: 15%, 0 mm, Hours of Rain: 0 Hours

8th: Mostly cloudy with a shower in places. (41% chance rain). Mostly cloudy. (1% chance rain). SE winds @ 11-33 km/h.
19C 28C. Storm Risk: 20%, 1 mm, Hours of Rain: 1 hours

9th: Mostly cloudy and humid with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm, mainly later. (10% chance rain). Mainly clear night. (10% chance rain). NNE winds @ 7-24 km/h.
22C 28C. Storm Risk: 1%, 0 mm, Hours of Rain: 0 hours

10th: Partly sunny. (20% chance rain). Mostly cloudy night. (25% chance rain). N-NNE winds @ 7-26 km/h.
22C 29C. Storm Risk: 10%, 0 mm, Hours of Rain: 0 Hours

11th: Mostly cloudy and humid; an afternoon shower or thunderstorm in the area. (40% chance rain). Cloudy and humid with a shower or thunderstorm around at night (55% chance rain). NW-E winds @ 6-18 km/h.
22ーC - 30C. Storm Risk: 48%, 4 mm, Hours Of Rain: 2.5 hours

12th: Less humid with clouds and sun. (25% chance rain). Mostly cloudy and humid with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm, mainly later at night. (64% chance rain). WNW-SE winds @ 7-17 km/h.
22C 30C. Storm Risk: 52%, 8 mm, Hours of Rain: 2.5 hours

13th: A couple of showers and a thunderstorm in the morning; otherwise, humid with plenty of clouds. (60% chance rain). Plenty of clouds at night. (25% chance rain). SE-ESE winds @ 13-28 km/h.
22C 30C. Storm Risk: 55%, 2 mm, Hours of Rain: 2 hours

14th: Mostly cloudy and less humid. (15% chance rain). Mostly cloudy night. (15% chance rain). E-NE winds @ 9-24 km/h.
22C 28C. Storm Risk: 13%, 0 mm, Hours of Rain: 0 hours

15th: Considerable cloudiness with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm, mainly later; humid. (61% chance rain). Partly cloudy and humid night. (20% chance rain). SSE-NW winds @ 2-7 km/h
22C 28C. Storm Risk: 41%, 5 mm, Hours of Rain: 2.5 hours

16th: Less humid with intervals of clouds and sunshine. (5% chance rain). Partly cloudy night. (5% chance rain). SSE-SE winds @ 13-32 km/h
22C 27C. Storm Risk: 0%, 0 mm, Hours of Rain: 0 hours

17th: Mostly sunny. (0% chance rain). Clear to partly cloudy night. (0% chance rain). SW-S winds @ 7-20 km/h.
22C 27C. Storm Risk: 0%, 0 mm, Hours of Rain: 0 hours

18th: Partly sunny. (0% chance rain). Increasing cloudiness at night. (0% chance rain). SSW-SE winds @ 9-26 km/h.
22C 29C. Storm Risk: 2%, 0 mm, Hours Of Rain: 0 hours

19th: Clouds giving way to some sun. (0% chance rain). Increasing cloudiness at night. (0% chance rain). S-SE winds @ 13-22 km/h.
21C 29C. Storm Risk: 7%, 0 mm, Hours of Rain: 0 hours

20th: Clouds giving way to some sun. (0% chance rain). Partly cloudy night. (0% chance rain). SE winds @ 9-32 km/h.
22C 29C. Storm Risk: 4%, 0 mm, Hours of Rain: 0 hours

21st: Partly sunny. (0% chance rain). Mainly clear night. (0% chance rain). SSE-NNE winds @ 6-18 km/h.
22C 29C. Storm Risk: 4%, 0 mm, Hours of Rain: 0 hours

22nd: Mostly sunny. (0% chance of rain). Mostly cloudy night. (5% chance of rain). NNE winds 6-24 km/h.
21C 29C. Storm Risk: 5%, 0 mm, Hours Of Rain: 0 hours

23rd: Sunshine. (0% chance of rain). Mainly clear night. (0% chance of rain). SSW-SE winds 11-24 km/h.
19C 29C. Storm Risk: 0%, 0 mm, Hours of Rain: 0 hours

24th: Mostly sunny. (0% chance of rain). Clear night. (0% chance of rain). ESE-SE winds 13-18 km/h.
19C - 29C. Storm Risk: 0%, 0 mm, Hours of Rain: 0 hours

25th: Mostly sunny. (0% chance rain). Mostly clear night. (0% chance rain). SE winds @ 18-35 km/h.
19C 27C. Storm Risk: 0%, 0 mm, Hours of Rain: 0 Hours

26th: Intervals of clouds and sunshine. (15% chance rain). Mainly cloudy with a touch of rain at night. (57% chance rain). SE-SSE winds @ 18-33 km/h.
20C 27C. Storm Risk: 0%, 1 mm, Hours of Rain: 2 Hours

27th: Considerable cloudiness with a shower. (58% chance rain). Considerable cloudiness with a touch of rain at night. (64% chance rain). SSE winds @ 9-18 km/h.
21C 27C. Storm Risk: 20%, 8 mm, Hours Of Rain: 5.5 hours

28th: Cloudy with a touch of rain. (56% chance rain). Mostly cloudy night. (25% chance rain). SSE-SE winds @ 7-15 km/h.
21C 26C. Storm Risk: 0%, 1 mm, Hours Of Rain: 1.5 hours

29th: Cloudy with showers. (66% chance rain). Cloudy with a touch of rain at night. (58% chance rain). SE winds @ 18-32 km/h.
20C 27C. Storm Risk: 20%, 7 mm, Hours of rain: 4.5 hours

30th: Mostly cloudy. (10% chance rain). Partly cloudy night. (0% chance rain). SE winds @ 17-30 km/h.
20C 26C. Storm Risk: 0%, 0 mm, Hours of rain: 0 hours

31st: Clouds and sunshine. (10% chance rain). Partly cloudy with a shower in places at night. (41% chance rain). SE winds @ 17-32 km/h.
20C 27C. Storm Risk: 20%, 1 mm, Hours of rain: 1 hours

Regards, Scott Hansen
_________________________
Scott Hansen
http://predictweather.net/blog

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#1410335 - 02/03/2017 14:28 Re: March 2017 Weather Report - Brisbane & SE Queensland [Re: Scott Hansen]
Scott Hansen Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/11/2015
Posts: 76
Loc: Aspley, Queensland
Hi, Just a quick update for the result on the 1st March, 2017.

For the 1st, i consider it an accurate forecast. As there was variable cloudiness and some general showers over the region. At night, there was some cloudiness and some isolated showers continued.
The storm risk i had at 29% and there were some isolated storms in the region especially inland.
The wind direction and wind speed was in the direction i said.
The only thing I have to note is the temperature, it was warmer than I thought. The temperature reached 30C when I only predicted 27C.

Thanks, Scott
_________________________
Scott Hansen
http://predictweather.net/blog

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#1410567 - 03/03/2017 16:10 Re: March 2017 Weather Report - Brisbane & SE Queensland [Re: Scott Hansen]
Scott Hansen Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/11/2015
Posts: 76
Loc: Aspley, Queensland
Here's the result what I forecasted for the 2nd March:

2nd: Hazy sunshine and humid with a shower in spots . (40% chance rain). Overcast and humid with a shower at night. (58% chance rain). SE winds @ 9-28 km/h.
22C 28C. Storm Risk: 29%, 3 mm, Hours of Rain: 3.5 hours

Again, another fairly accurate forecast as there was more general showers popping up over the region. I included the storm risk at 29% with more general storms to the inland ranges. Minimum temperature reached the predicted 22C but the temperature about was 2C hotter than I forecasted.
The past 2 days of this month, I have considered a fairly accurate description of the weather that has accurred. Do u agree?
_________________________
Scott Hansen
http://predictweather.net/blog

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#1410677 - 04/03/2017 09:53 Re: March 2017 Weather Report - Brisbane & SE Queensland [Re: Scott Hansen]
Scott Hansen Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/11/2015
Posts: 76
Loc: Aspley, Queensland
Here's the result for what I predicted for the 3rd Marc, 2017:

3rd: Cloudy and humid with showers. (70% chance rain). Mostly cloudy and humid with a brief shower or two at night. (62% chance rain). ESE winds @ 7-24 km/h.
23C 30C. Storm Risk: 20%, 13 mm, Hours of Rain: 5 hours

Again another great start to the monthly predictions so far. There was some cloudiness with some showers over the region. The night was mostly cloudy with a shower in spots. A storm risk of 20% localised over the SE. The wind direction was from the SSE as forecasted & wind strength was within the forecasted strength. Temperature reached 31C, i has predicted 30C. The minimum teperature was 21C, 2C cooler then forecasted.
_________________________
Scott Hansen
http://predictweather.net/blog

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#1410731 - 04/03/2017 16:40 Re: March 2017 Weather Report - Brisbane & SE Queensland [Re: Scott Hansen]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6729
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: Scott Hansen
Do u agree?

I think it would be great if one could respond to feedback, or at least acknowledge it.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (04/03/2017 16:42)
_________________________
Only the most naive gamblers bet against physics, and only the most irresponsible bet with their grandchildrens resources.

-- William H. Calvin.

[A quote about abrupt weather pattern changes occurring within decades.]

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#1410735 - 04/03/2017 17:02 Re: March 2017 Weather Report - Brisbane & SE Queensland [Re: Scott Hansen]
ozone doug Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1509
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the S Wes...
Ok lol I am a bit out of range i would think ,But had humid day 1mm rain.
_________________________

Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch50 and ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.

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#1410806 - 04/03/2017 22:11 Re: March 2017 Weather Report - Brisbane & SE Queensland [Re: Scott Hansen]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 116
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Scott Hansen
Do u agree?

But that's in the 10 day forecast range. I'm more interested in the 15 days beyond period. That's when your predictions won't always be correct.
_________________________
Long term forecaster
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au

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#1410818 - 05/03/2017 00:24 Re: March 2017 Weather Report - Brisbane & SE Queensland [Re: Scott Hansen]
BIG T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 831
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Feb was a massive fail.

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#1410908 - 05/03/2017 13:02 Re: March 2017 Weather Report - Brisbane & SE Queensland [Re: Scott Hansen]
Scott Hansen Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/11/2015
Posts: 76
Loc: Aspley, Queensland
Originally Posted By: Scott Hansen
4th: Humid; thunderstorms in the morning followed by a shower or thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon. (75% chance rain). Humid; a thunderstorm in spots in the evening followed by occasional rain and a thunderstorm late night. (56% chance rain). ESE winds @ 7-22 km/h.
23C 29C. Storm Risk: 40%, 18 mm, Hours of Rain: 6 hours


Result:

It was a humid day. There were no possible thunderstorm in the morning. We did have some shower/slight storm activity in certain spots in the afternoon. Also, we did have shower and slight storm activity towards evening which did eventuate into occassional rain bands move through during last night. I did have a 40% storm risk.

Minimum temperature was right with 23C but the temperature was warmer than I said, it reached 31C in Brisbane where I had 29C.
Wind direction was from the ESE to NNE and the wind speed was within the range i forecasted.

Another accurate daily forecast and a good start to the month.
Regards, Scott H
_________________________
Scott Hansen
http://predictweather.net/blog

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