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#1409117 - 22/02/2017 10:40 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 301
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.

MJO POAMA Forecast is not bad for Northern Australian rainfall IMO.


Edited by Snowy Hibbo (22/02/2017 10:41)
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#1409137 - 22/02/2017 15:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Thunderstruck]
Bello Weather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/07/2012
Posts: 354
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Originally Posted By: Thunderstruck
Weakish El Nino this year then stronger La Nina next year.

TS cool

Certainly respect your opinion on this, would love to know your reasoning behind your post, if you have time.
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#1409140 - 22/02/2017 16:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 442
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Anthony Masiello sent me this Link on the Hadelly cell effect on Australia. Article from April 2014.

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#1409157 - 22/02/2017 19:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ozone doug]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2700
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Cheers Ozone Doug,
I put it out there & peoples fascination with G.W. & C.C. affecting climate & its causes is realistically miniscule compared to the damage Fukushima will do to the Pacific Rim & Global.
Sorry to put out there but I really worry about some of our international food suppliers.
Thanks funkydoo for the info, interesting stuff I need to digest.
Cheers everyone, take care.

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#1409160 - 22/02/2017 20:12 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2063
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
You maybe onto something there Mad Elf re:international food suppliers running into trouble as result of the Fukushima damage that may also include seafood as well but its another subject for a different thread

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#1409167 - 22/02/2017 21:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2700
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Ok, rstewart84, probably worthy for a different thread but there is still all this warming in the northern pacific affecting our climate that has its origins, nobody seems to know. Fukushima happened nearly 6 years ago & now we are having intense north pacific warming not to mention the radioactive fallout.
Sorry to digress from this thread, its nice to expect some rain in our part of OZ next week, its likely those nasty ridges will relax the choke on our coast somewhat in the short term.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (22/02/2017 21:10)

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#1409231 - 23/02/2017 14:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 1934
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld

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#1409252 - 23/02/2017 17:26 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2063
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
The prospect of an La Nina have pretty much gone down the dunny for all those who held onto the hope of a wet summer next year although given the climate meter is still inactive so it can swing either way during autumn although given today's update showing significant decline in rainfall for most parts of Australia and a rise in temps to above average but these things could change

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#1409253 - 23/02/2017 17:47 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: rstewart84]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2594
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Originally Posted By: rstewart84
The prospect of an La Nina have pretty much gone down the dunny for all those who held onto the hope of a wet summer next year although given the climate meter is still inactive so it can swing either way during autumn although given today's update showing significant decline in rainfall for most parts of Australia and a rise in temps to above average but these things could change


Maybe the dunny is clogged and that hope will float? poke

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#1409254 - 23/02/2017 17:48 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: RC]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2594
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Originally Posted By: RC


Hideous.

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#1409256 - 23/02/2017 17:59 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
greg.l Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
Where I live there is about a 30% chance of median rainfall with a 70% accuracy. I'm not giving up just yet that I might get some rain.

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#1409263 - 23/02/2017 18:51 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: rstewart84]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 1934
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Originally Posted By: rstewart84
Ttoday's update showing significant decline in rainfall for most parts of Australia and a rise in temps to above average but these things could change


I dunno, you can not decline much below 0 for here.

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#1409282 - 23/02/2017 21:40 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: RC]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1658
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Originally Posted By: RC
BOM rain prediction is out



You forgot to add 'take with a pinch of salt'.
If you compiled a list of Bom predictions you can probably find the opposite happened with a lot of them.

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#1409412 - 24/02/2017 21:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23525
Loc: Townsville
[censored] el nino
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#1409413 - 24/02/2017 22:28 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Knot]
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6227
Loc: Central Qld.
Originally Posted By: Knot
Originally Posted By: RC
BOM rain prediction is out



You forgot to add 'take with a pinch of salt'.
If you compiled a list of Bom predictions you can probably find the opposite happened with a lot of them.


Yes I can't remember what year it was there was an article in our paper and the BOM had said we were going to have a dry summer in the Rocky region and we had a very wet summer.

I think that was the year Oswald dumped 800mm in 2 days in our area.


Edited by Vinnie (24/02/2017 22:30)
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#1409414 - 24/02/2017 22:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Vinnie]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 387
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Originally Posted By: Vinnie
Originally Posted By: Knot
Originally Posted By: RC
BOM rain prediction is out



You forgot to add 'take with a pinch of salt'.
If you compiled a list of Bom predictions you can probably find the opposite happened with a lot of them.


Yes I can't remember what year it was there was an article in our paper and the BOM had said we were going to have a dry summer in the Rocky region and we had a very wet summer.

I think that was the year Oswald dumped 800mm in 2 days in our area.


It's amazing what 1 rogue tropical system can do whether it's in a El Nino or not. If it meanders over land for a period of time it's going to dump a lot of rain.

Tewantin recorded it's wettest day of 732mm during the 1991/1992 El nino because of a slow moving monsoonal low.
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#1409485 - 25/02/2017 14:40 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6896
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Stuff it...I'm going to call it out:

Why name a thread "Climate Driver Discussion (About X, Y and Z, and so on)" year X, when the subject is not really being discuss in its true breadth? Tell it as it is smile !

People want to have a discussion about science and that sort of stuff...then treated it as such. This is not personal. Until next time, this is about as much assistance as I'm willing to offer.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (25/02/2017 14:44)
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#1409492 - 25/02/2017 16:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Squeako_88]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17299
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: Squeako_88
Originally Posted By: Vinnie
Originally Posted By: Knot
Originally Posted By: RC
BOM rain prediction is out



You forgot to add 'take with a pinch of salt'.
If you compiled a list of Bom predictions you can probably find the opposite happened with a lot of them.


Yes I can't remember what year it was there was an article in our paper and the BOM had said we were going to have a dry summer in the Rocky region and we had a very wet summer.

I think that was the year Oswald dumped 800mm in 2 days in our area.


It's amazing what 1 rogue tropical system can do whether it's in a El Nino or not. If it meanders over land for a period of time it's going to dump a lot of rain.

Tewantin recorded it's wettest day of 732mm during the 1991/1992 El nino because of a slow moving monsoonal low.


Yes, one cyclone can certainly change things in a hurry as has been seen many times in the past.
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#1409502 - 25/02/2017 18:28 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6413
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Good morning guys, I've been reading this topic with interest for a long while now, the discussions here are very interesting & it seems to me that this summer's weather is unusual here as well as in N.Z. & there must be something that has upset the balance, in particular the water temp in the north pacific rising. I might be wrong but seems to me since 2011, after Fukushima blew up, the water temp has risen much faster. There are reports around that over 400 Tonnes of radioactive water daily are STILL leaking into the pacific, wether it is true or not I dont know but, my question is; Would that amount of radiation leaking into water over 6 years produce a water temperature rise, which is affecting our weather here, now?
People can shoot me down if you like, call me mad whatever, but its another angle on something causing our weather the way it is.
Cheers.


IMO - the energy stored at one power plant is way too small to heat an ocean!

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#1409527 - 25/02/2017 21:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 1934
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
I feel the SAM/AAO is more neutral now then negative.

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