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#1408921 - 20/02/2017 20:22 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2063
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Wednesday is looking interesting forecast wise with winds about 35-50km/h forecast for the Lower South East with a nice warm day in the mix not to hot or cold about 30 degrees and next week looks to be quite warm as well but as we all know SA weather changes in the blink of an eye

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#1408960 - 21/02/2017 05:02 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
hi RS, yer gunna be an early 30 for you if it gets there at
all, there's a weak gusty W-SW change coming through the S.E.
quadrant of S.A.
the timing of the change is critical to max temps, most times
when fronts come through they lay on an angle that closely
coincides adelaide with the S.E.S.A in relation to timing
but this one is running pretty much vertical from iron triangle
south which means the S.E.S.A gets the change a fair bit later
than adelaide. only above the iron triangle does the trough
line start to lay back to the NW.
EP will have the change go through before sunrise.
Adelaide appears to be in for the change around 9am'ish and
the change for the gulf areas will be quite sharp with winds
going from N to W in a short space of time.
for you around 12pm'sh and the change will be more gradual
going from NNE/NbE to NW/WNW over about 3hrs.
once the change comes through temps will gradually drop and
end up around the mid to low 20s later in the arvo.
there will be some associated cloud but no rain at all is
forecast so even though temps are not high and DPs will go
up as winds swing to the west because of the gusty nature
of the change and no rain i think it will still be a high
fire danger day.

TH
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#1408963 - 21/02/2017 07:48 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
willitrainagain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 513
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
currently 5.6 degrees here at my place. Not bad for february

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#1409038 - 21/02/2017 18:22 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
lookit all that beautiful lightning going off on the
approaching front and associated low south of S.E.W.A.,
and to think all we're going to get out of it is a visit
from our good and familiar friend jack schitt.

TH
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#1409085 - 21/02/2017 22:45 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: ThD Ht]
Galaxyman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2016
Posts: 194
Loc: Renmark
Originally Posted By: ThD Ht
lookit all that beautiful lightning going off on the
approaching front and associated low south of S.E.W.A.,
and to think all we're going to get out of it is a visit
from our good and familiar friend jack schitt.

TH


lol yeah that lightning is about as useful as a bottle shop 100km away when you don't have a car. I never cease to be amazed at how often giant agglomerations of lightning pop up at our latitudes in the Tasman and to the West. Failwhale

At least there is some summer to be enjoyed in the forecast, but it's all a scam, short lived with southerly attack this week and yet another catastrophic antarctic polar annihilation by March 2 on ACCESS.

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#1409104 - 22/02/2017 08:59 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
*jr* Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/01/2011
Posts: 78
Good Morning!


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#1409105 - 22/02/2017 09:00 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1563
Loc: Bridgewater
alien invasion!!

great photo

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#1409115 - 22/02/2017 10:12 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17462
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Stunning stuff there JR.

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#1409123 - 22/02/2017 11:58 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
JohnC Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2011
Posts: 154
Loc: Adelaide, South Australia
Hot wind on the way

Quote:
For people in the
Mount Lofty Ranges and parts of the
Mid North districts.

Issued at 10:24 am Wednesday, 22 February 2017.
Strong and gusty northwest to westerly winds may briefly reach 40-65 km/h with gusts to around 80-95 km/h in the warning area over the next few hours as a vigorous front moves through. These winds may cause localised damage.
Locations which may be affected include Strathalbyn, Victor Harbor, Eudunda and parts of the Mount Lofty Ranges.
Winds of 50-60 km/h with gusts to 95 km/h have been recorded at Hindmarsh Island.
_________________________
http://jcroucher.com/weather/

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#1409126 - 22/02/2017 12:46 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17462
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
gone already for the city - Sw change in.
warning is for the ranges.

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#1409127 - 22/02/2017 12:52 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2063
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Very warm and windy here at the moment in Kalangadoo we have passed the forecast temp of 30 degrees currently sitting at 32.8 with a relative humidity of 10% the winds at between 15 and 20 km/h with occasional gusts at ground level of up to 30 km/h although it would be stronger if i had my sensors much higher than where they are stationed which is something i may look at doing later in the year


Edited by rstewart84 (22/02/2017 12:52)

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#1409181 - 23/02/2017 02:27 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
certainly was a sharp change,
DPs went from 0.5 to 15.6 in around an hour,
wind swing from nnw to w in under ten mins.
not bad for a dry argument,
jack didn't disappoint either.

TH
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#1409193 - 23/02/2017 09:35 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: ThD Ht]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2063
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
I downloaded the data from my weather station yesterday arvo/early Thunda then configured it to start from 0900 Wednesday morning till 18:30 and bugger me whoever fed mother nature baked beans must have given her extra spicy chili flavored ones as its a wonder my anemometer sensor is still in tact

At 12:40pm the sensors clocked a wind gust of 42.8 km/h from the SW with the dp being in the negatives and at around 2:30-3:00 another gust at 40.3 km/h was also recorded bearing in mind these are ground speeds with an average speed being about 29-30 km/h

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#1409266 - 23/02/2017 19:02 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
that seems strange RS, once the wind swung the DPs should have
been sky high, also sw at 12:40 is wierd too, you didn't mean nw
did you?
according to mt.gambier aws winds swung from nnw to w between
2 and 3 pm, w briefly until swinging back northward a bit.
there shouldn't have been any sw contingent associated with
the passage of the initial front.

TH
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#1409294 - 23/02/2017 23:34 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17462
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Just keep an eye on a bit of instability creeping in from the NE later next week....
Even more so the following week (second week of March)

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#1409319 - 24/02/2017 10:44 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1626
Loc: Uleybury
If the wind swung to the SW, the DP would normally go up by a few degrees within a couple minutes then stablise itself but surprising yours did not.

Bare in mind both TH and RS that the Fine offset wind vanes aren't the best for picking direction, Davis can read a NW for ages and the Fine Offset will read W or SW giving that the sensors are exactly alighted with one another. Plus going through the data it shows weird directions such as NEE SEE NWW which are terms you don't really see even though theyd be NNE ENE E etc. However it does very well when it comes to a good gale as it stays the direction it is actually blowing.

The Fine Offset anemometers can stand gusts to 180km/h while "some claim" up to 240km/h. Owning the same station layout as you 40.3 and 42.8km/h is nothing compared to what mine has recorded wink


Re: Instability, looks like its backed off a tad this update but something to look out for, be able to chase should they eventuate, would give the new set of wheels a good run

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#1409574 - 26/02/2017 03:56 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
so were finally into some sort of autumn ass blisterin' heat
blast, not surprising to see the pendulum do a proper swing
after all the suffering garbage that was delivered before
christmas which most people will have well and truly
forgotten about.
back then i was crappin' me pants thinking we were going to
have a cool mild summer with no significant heat, had one of
them a long time ago, can't remember the year but it was not
pretty.(both the season and my attitude). however it was was
interjected by one event that won't be forgotten in a hurry,
the day our stupid useless inept braindead government
allowed S.A. to be in a position to allow the weather to
come along and take the state out.
what a ball tearer that was.
then there was five weeks of tropofest for us. say no more.
and now....
things are looking cool with plenty of heat so it's time to
get up and get down, at the moment it looks like it might
hang around for a couple of weeks with the week after this
one going through the roof again, the trend and what bom
says seems to indicate plenty more after that. the thing to
look out for is will winter come with a bang or a whimper.
i think the longer and harder summer pushes into winter
territory the more chance of a bang at the end.
is someone going to start a thread on this? if 'y are 'y
better git a wriggle on, personally i'm happy to sit here
and roast me nuts off in the day to day.

TH
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#1409619 - 26/02/2017 15:08 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: ThD Ht]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2063
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Whoever begged and pleaded with Mother Nature to bring the heat back to SA didn't fall on deaf ears that's for sure Thunda as were now seeing temps that should have been cooking us alive earlier this month and whole of January with no signs of letting up either

As for being worried about winter i think Autsummer (autumnsummer)for short has old man winter firmly in a ric flair style figure 4 leg lock tapping out repeatedly meaning it will probably come and go with a whimper given the BOM trend pointing to below average rainfall for March-May although the climate indicator is still at Inactive so anything is possible

The silver lining with this extended summer for SA is that whoever goes to Clipsal this year wont have to worry about being washed away or drowned like rats in the dunny like last year when that sudden heavy rain storm swept over the circuit

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#1409665 - 26/02/2017 20:20 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
yer RS, enso is running on idle and in neutral atm.
jeeze that heat trough over western w.a. is well and truly
clamped in place, it just ain't interested in going anywhere.
i got dibs on next go after w.a. so we'll see what the trough
gods have got to say but i wouldn't be surprised if i got
told to bugger off 'os we already had our go.
ok, now about clipsal, it looks to be hot but.....
ec and gfs have a few thundery showers on saturday and clear
on sunday. now...what with the fickle nature of these inland
lows, shortwave troughs, moisture availability and being
this far out that could all evaporate or it could enhance
and ramp up, just have to keep an eye on it.
bom atm have adelaide as fine and sunny for sat.
if anything does happen next weekend it will most likley be a
brief interjection to what appears to be coming the week
after which looks to be the same as or slightly more hardcore
than this week.
they said on the news that we get to wave goodbye to summer
with a heatwave this week, somehow i don't think we'll be
waving goodbye anytime soon. as for the season break, most
cockys like anzac day as the delineator, anything before that
is early, anything after that is late. way too far away to
even sniff about speculating on that. bom are speculating
about a late break so late may early june is not unheard of.
the first real sniff of anything that looks like a break
will manifest itself at the end of the advanced 14 day
models.

TH
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#1409868 - 27/02/2017 20:47 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6893
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
I sense drought for 1, maybe 2 months frown . Might be fortunate if a Tropical Cyclone or low forms near Broome and disrupts the dynamics. The higher-pressure ridges are plundering the Bight and not seeing much deep south long-wave trough activity.

Maybe a low will meander east from Sydney... smile , maybe.
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*Kindness is our ally.

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