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#1410138 - 01/03/2017 10:25 Top End NT Wet Season - March 2017
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12547
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Discussion continues.
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#1410197 - 01/03/2017 16:44 Re: Top End NT Wet Season - March 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
Pity the wet season doesn't. But, maybe this weekend.

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#1410200 - 01/03/2017 16:57 Re: Top End NT Wet Season - March 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
JimmyGray Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/08/2008
Posts: 1579
Loc: Palmerston NT
Yep sounds like its coming back with interest wink

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#1410683 - 04/03/2017 11:14 Re: Top End NT Wet Season - March 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
Jacci Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/04/2008
Posts: 674
Loc: Top End, Storm Capital of Aus ...
One from last night's light show over Darwin. Taken from East Arm.. smile

East Arm Light Show by Jacci Ingham, on Flickr
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#1410687 - 04/03/2017 11:34 Re: Top End NT Wet Season - March 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2356
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Nice one Jacci! It went right off for a period there that's for sure.
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#1412169 - 14/03/2017 08:38 Re: Top End NT Wet Season - March 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
Looks like BOM is expecting us to be under a monsoon trough by the weekend. Also the possibility of a low developing in it. However, there's a big question mark over the strength of either.

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#1412539 - 15/03/2017 13:24 Re: Top End NT Wet Season - March 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
Weekly Tropical Climate Note
14 March 2017

Monsoon trough to return to northern Australia
International weather models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology are forecasting a monsoon trough to redevelop to the north of Australia in the coming week. Models are predicting a wind surge from the northern hemisphere will cross the equator and feed into a weak trough which currently extends from near the north coast of the Northern Territory across to northern Queensland and into the Coral Sea (see chart here).

This would increase rainfall over parts of the southern Maritime Continent and far northern Australia. While some models predict the monsoon trough will move over land, others suggest it will develop over water, raising the risk of tropical cyclone development in the Australian region from this weekend. Historically, the month of March sees the highest frequency of tropical cyclones in the Australian region.

Madden-Julian Oscillation becomes weak
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has weakened in recent days. After moving eastwards across the Indian Ocean at moderate to strong levels, it became weak as it moved into the far western Maritime Continent.

Most international climate models predict the MJO will remain weak or indiscernible in the coming fortnight, and so is not likely to be a contributing factor to Australian rainfall. Similar to several previous monsoon bursts across Australia’s northern tropics this wet season, tropical influences other than the MJO are expected to have a stronger influence on the development of monsoon activity across northern Australia for the next two weeks.

El Niño WATCH in place
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) currently remains neutral. However, recent changes in both the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere, and climate model outlooks surveyed by the Bureau, suggest the likelihood of El Niño forming in 2017 has risen. The Bureau's ENSO Outlook status is now at El Niño WATCH. This means the likelihood of El Niño forming in 2017 is approximately 50% (twice the climatological average).

For northern Australia, overnight temperatures are typically cooler than usual during the dry season months of May to September in El Niño years.

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#1412621 - 15/03/2017 19:19 Re: Top End NT Wet Season - March 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING - DARWIN CITY
and OUTER DARWIN

for DAMAGING WINDS
For people in the Palmerston and parts of the Bynoe, Cox Peninsula, Litchfield and Darwin areas.

Issued at 5:36 pm Wednesday, 15 March 2017.

The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 5:30 pm, potential severe thunderstorms were detected on the weather radar near Humpty Doo, Acacia Hills, Lambells Lagoon and the Adelaide River to the southeast of Darwin. They are forecast to affect Berry Springs, Noonamah, Howard Springs and Livingstone by 6:00 pm and Palmerston and Middle Arm by 6:30 pm.

Damaging winds are likely.

The Northern Territory Emergency Service advises that people should:
* secure loose outside objects
* ensure pets and animals are safe
* avoid remaining in the open when storms threaten
* pull over if it is raining heavily and you cannot see, park with your hazard lights on until the rain clears
* avoid driving into water of unknown depth and current
* for emergency help in floods, storms and cyclones, contact the NTES on 132 500. For more safety tips visit www.securent.nt.gov.au

The next warning is due to be issued by 6:40 pm.

Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 214. The Bureau and Northern Territory Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.


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#1412881 - 17/03/2017 04:26 Re: Top End NT Wet Season - March 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2356
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Another severe-warned one through town earlier, nothing too dramatic in terms of winds etc locally but it certainly made a racket on its way past.


Vibrant
by Orebound Images, on Flickr
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#1412973 - 17/03/2017 17:01 Re: Top End NT Wet Season - March 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
Here we go again:


IDD20044
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Northern Territory

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING for DAMAGING WINDS


For people in the Daly, Arnhem and parts of the Carpentaria and Gregory districts.

Issued at 3:11 pm Friday, 17 March 2017.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Darwin, Katherine, Palmerston, Jabiru, Wadeye, Nauiyu, Batchelor, Adelaide River and Pine Creek.


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#1414080 - 21/03/2017 23:52 Re: Top End NT Wet Season - March 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
gecko Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2007
Posts: 408
Loc: Coconut Grove, Darwin, NT.
Interesting rotation on radar - centre seems to be just SE of Darwin. Forecasts suggest nothing expected to come of it, all the action will be to east and west.

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#1414105 - 22/03/2017 08:26 Re: Top End NT Wet Season - March 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
We've got a real Clayton's monsoon on now and GFS shows swirls or eddies developing in it. But I think that's about all they'll be. The MJO is pretty well indiscernible and there's nothing else suggesting any ramping up of the season.

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