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#1410098 - 01/03/2017 07:17 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low & onshore showers / scattered storms 25 February to 5 March 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1087
Loc: Toowoomba
In fact the synoptic and satellite(the band of cloud offshore right up through the coral sea) looks like a classic autumn/winter ECL event where the low developes too far south and gives us endless SW'ers.

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#1410102 - 01/03/2017 08:18 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low & onshore showers / scattered storms 25 February to 5 March 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2757
Loc: Buderim
Maroochydore forecast is still for showers, 70% chance of rain, 2-10mm range and still nothing. And still looks like everything is to the south.

Yesterday storms developed on the ranges during the day, but with zero sheer near the center of the upper level low they stayed on the range. Perhaps with increased sheer as the upper low moves south we might get something today.

Or perhaps the forecast will be wrong yet again. The cloud band seems to be generally further out to sea today as well as concentrated to the south.

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#1410114 - 01/03/2017 09:03 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low & onshore showers / scattered storms 25 February to 5 March 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2904
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
.5mm from last nights offering.

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#1410117 - 01/03/2017 09:15 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low & onshore showers / scattered storms 25 February to 5 March 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
pabloako Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/03/2007
Posts: 1619
Loc: Ocean View, Queensland
Not a drop here year and the cattle farms around here are starting to have the grasses die off and my lawn is looking like straw. My dream of 20-40mm over the last few days has evaporated. I will just go with the probability of a shower is 50:50 and then I won't be disappointed.
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#1410123 - 01/03/2017 09:28 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low & onshore showers / scattered storms 25 February to 5 March 2017 [Re: NotsohopefulPete]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1292
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Hopefull
Looking at ec all I see is the coastal trough developing into a Tasman low that just wanders around. I thought that after such a hot and dry summer this event might be something. With the probable total failure of anything from the tropics I wonder how bad, dry wise, things will get. We took a drive to Warwick Monday to see ny auntie and came back yesterday. The Warwick area looked ok even some green but most of the areas on this side of the range is soooo dry, depressing actually. Of course the exception to all this is the Northern rivers.


I love the Warwick area, I went out there back in January for the sunflowers. It's green in places there due to a lot of storms out that way.. I think

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#1410124 - 01/03/2017 09:30 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low & onshore showers / scattered storms 25 February to 5 March 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
wetdreams Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/10/2010
Posts: 69
Loc: Mooloolah Valley QLD
Originally Posted By: Seabreeze
Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
To forecast 70 or 80 percent chance of 5 to 30 mm and 95 percent of the area get absolutely zip is just wrong. One can not justify such a forecast by eluding to an isolated location that receives 20mm. Creates frustration and lack of confidence. Maybe the confusing forecast mode needs to change especially for simple types such as myself.( Maths teacher)
If you're referring to BOM's forecasts, using tomorrow's current Brisbane forecast as an example:
'Chance of any rain: 70%' = 70% chance of receiving more than 0.2mm
'Possible rainfall: 4 to 15mm' = 50% chance of receiving 4mm or more, and a 25% chance of receiving 15mm or more.
It doesn't mean 70% chance of 4 to 15mm.
http://media.bom.gov.au/social/blog/209/right-as-rain-how-to-interpret-the-daily-rainfall-forecast/


This needs to communicated much clearer for the average punter.
If you look at today's official forecast for the sunshine coast, it clearly says;
Max 29, Shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 2-10mm
Chance of any rain: 70%

There is no other way to read that then to say we should expect a high chance of getting 2-10mm of rain today. There's nothing in this forecast page to indicate there is a sliding scale and we should really only expect 0.2mm or less.

It seams the BoM is a bit like our mate in the US; they have a communication problem and it's leading to lots of frustration out in the general public.... crazy
_________________________
Going to sleep with heavy rain on a tin roof always makes for ‘wetdreams’….

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#1410125 - 01/03/2017 09:36 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low & onshore showers / scattered storms 25 February to 5 March 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4683
I can see how it can be misinterpreted but at the same time, if you read it literally, it makes sense.

Chance of ANY measurable rain is 70%. If it does rain, then amounts around 2-10mm are possible.

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#1410126 - 01/03/2017 09:40 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low & onshore showers / scattered storms 25 February to 5 March 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1292
Loc: Australia
I don't want to be critical on the forecasts, but both HSC and SBS have copped a hammering from "some" of there followers as people may have thought the rain would be more widespread.

The thing is, Brisbane have had forecasts in the past that resemble the current forecast, and the rain was more widespread.

When Brisbane issue a forecast, is it for Brisbane City area or the whole Metro area?

It's a strange setup, never I seen onshore winds so deep yet lack of constant showers which is normally the case (well at least for the GC area)

Yet there have been times where we have had onshore winds with no upper support , yet its been cloudy and rainy all day with no sunshine in sight.

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#1410127 - 01/03/2017 09:44 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low & onshore showers / scattered storms 25 February to 5 March 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1087
Loc: Toowoomba
Yes, Gleno71, that area did well from the last storm event. One thing I was reminded of is how cold the SE's are there. My wife loved it but I like it a lot warmer. As other much more knowledgeable people have explained, it was probably the MAYBE unexpectedly bad positioning of the upper low that has caused the disappointment.


Edited by Hopefull (01/03/2017 09:49)

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#1410128 - 01/03/2017 09:48 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low & onshore showers / scattered storms 25 February to 5 March 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1292
Loc: Australia
Anyhow speaking of showers, I caught this nice structure that gave heavy rain south of the Tweed yesterday afternoon.
DSC_5743 by Glen Anderson, on Flickr

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#1410129 - 01/03/2017 09:50 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low & onshore showers / scattered storms 25 February to 5 March 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 854
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
I'm a novice but find that in the "good" seasons upgrades occur and forecast rainfall is met if not exceeded, whereas in times like now it works the other way and good potentials fail to eventuate.

Kens map gave it a chance of going either way, but the "less than expected" outcome is disappointing but not unexpected.

see what happens today... I'd love one of those showers over here!

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#1410130 - 01/03/2017 09:54 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low & onshore showers / scattered storms 25 February to 5 March 2017 [Re: Blowin']
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1292
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Blowin'
I'm a novice but find that in the "good" seasons upgrades occur and forecast rainfall is met if not exceeded, whereas in times like now it works the other way and good potentials fail to eventuate.

Kens map gave it a chance of going either way, but the "less than expected" outcome is disappointing but not unexpected.

see what happens today... I'd love one of those showers over here!


Very true, as Ken has explained, some areas got very decent totals, I think he posted a rainfall map a few pages back.

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#1410131 - 01/03/2017 09:55 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low & onshore showers / scattered storms 25 February to 5 March 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 854
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Yes, I guess by "expected" I meant the publics expectations for widespread rain- wether it was misguided or not.


Edited by Blowin' (01/03/2017 09:55)

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#1410140 - 01/03/2017 10:26 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low & onshore showers / scattered storms 25 February to 5 March 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1087
Loc: Toowoomba
Interesting where this discussion is going. Despite what people may think it is only because I have keenly observed major events and tried to remember them and listened to the Bureau since the sixties that I have any confidence to even post. Were dummies like myself and the public foolish to believe that this was going to be a fairly widespread rain event that included the SE QLD part of the thread. I do understand what has happened and there is still hope of something despite the disappointment so far.


Edited by Hopefull (01/03/2017 10:28)

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#1410142 - 01/03/2017 10:35 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low & onshore showers / scattered storms 25 February to 5 March 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 778
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Yes Gleno and Hopefull, in spite of how hot this summer has been, we have been doing alright in the rain department. We had nearly 120mm in Jan. Not as impresssive in Feb. with 55mm. Other areas around here have faired much better. Others area a bit drier.
Over the past few days, areas east of Allora and the Clifton area have had decent falls. Not in town here however. Just a few drops.
The sunflowers are gorgeous and the SE winds can bite at times.
All in all, the change of seasons we experience out here are enjoyable.


Edited by Warwick Eye2Sky (01/03/2017 10:36)
_________________________
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#1410145 - 01/03/2017 10:53 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low & onshore showers / scattered storms 25 February to 5 March 2017 [Re: Warwick Eye2Sky]
Lewis Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2011
Posts: 311
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
I can agree with a lot of people here in that the BOM forecast has left a bit to be desired. Aside from a very brief shower in the early hours of Monday morning and three drops last night around 6pm, we've had zero here. I'd held off on watering the lawn expecting 20-30mm+, to get 0mm is frustrating.

If the BOM had described the showers as 'patchy', people would take the forecast more seriously when they wake up and find a clear, sunny day.
_________________________
Donut hole V2.0.

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#1410146 - 01/03/2017 11:14 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low & onshore showers / scattered storms 25 February to 5 March 2017 [Re: Lewis]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4683
Originally Posted By: Lewis
If the BOM had described the showers as 'patchy', people would take the forecast more seriously when they wake up and find a clear, sunny day.

Showers by their very definition, are patchy, hence the distinction made between "showers" and "rain areas" in forecasts. Saying patchy showers is a bit like saying big large hail.
The forecasts have mainly been going for showers rather than steady rain.

But personally, I prefer adding a descriptive term like spotty or hit and miss when coverage is going to be marginal.

This forecast output using runs from last Saturday appear to be holding up reasonably well... so far at least anyway:




Edited by Ken Kato (01/03/2017 11:16)
Edit Reason: added stuff

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#1410149 - 01/03/2017 11:44 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low & onshore showers / scattered storms 25 February to 5 March 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Stormwithin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/12/2016
Posts: 123
I refer you to Squeako's original post, starting this thread.

So....patchy showers and isolated storms is how the cookie crumbled here folks.

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#1410150 - 01/03/2017 11:49 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low & onshore showers / scattered storms 25 February to 5 March 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2757
Loc: Buderim
That shows 30% chance of Maroochydore getting to 25mm over 7 days, which seems a reasonable reflection of what seems to be happening. But close to the same time the BOM forecast for Maroochydore was something like Sun 5-10, Mon 15-30, Tue 10-20, We to Sat 2-10. Other forecasts haven't been as bullish.

I've always interpreted showers as being short in time period, but potentially widespread in extent, for instance a line of showers developing in the morning impacting 90% of the coast with a few gaps, but less than 10 minutes of rain in any spot. So a term like 'patchy', meaning neither widespread in extent or time would not be redundant. The BOM used to use isolated showers in their forecast, as far as I could tell for that very purpose.

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#1410152 - 01/03/2017 12:02 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low & onshore showers / scattered storms 25 February to 5 March 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4361
Loc: Brisbane
The Cambridge dictionary definition of showers is:

a short period of rain or snow

I find it hard to envisage a situation where showers are occurring where there isn't a likelihood that some areas would receive little or no rainfall.

It wasn't hard looking at the current set up to realize that some areas would miss out on rainfall altogether whilst other areas would accumulate reasonable totals.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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