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#1410219 - 01/03/2017 18:49 Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ?
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1437
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
The approaching yes/no rain event may/may not drop/not happen with rain over the next five days/or so.

If it is happening the rain might be somewhere between 4mm and 28mm. - according to our local BOM forecast.

That's narrowing it down by the experts with huge resources, for tyros here the ants are building little sand mounds between the pavers and we had black cockies in a tree last week and a Goanna walking across the lawn looking thirsty, I kid you not.

grin

ACCESS looks good over Sat & Sunday, maybe 20mm in it.

ACCESS shows - an E.C.L. 1008hPa begins to form off the south NSW coast, just above the Vic border, late on Sunday night and appears to be a cut off low later Monday morning deepening to 1004hPa as it moves offshore and N the remainder of Monday and Tuesday next.

GFS this arvo doesn't show anywhere in Vic with better than 5mm.

EC reckons about 6.5mm for the event.

Whatever rainfall occurs will be gratefully rec'd as will be the cool low/mid 20's weather after tomorrows low 30C.
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April 40mm to 0900 26th.

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#1410228 - 01/03/2017 19:41 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1437
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Thirsty Goanna at home -

_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April 40mm to 0900 26th.

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#1410260 - 01/03/2017 22:37 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1437
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
This was the forecast two days ago.

Originally Posted By: samboz
Getting a little excited........... grin

When you see models like this........ grin grin



_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April 40mm to 0900 26th.

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#1410281 - 02/03/2017 08:17 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1437
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
WZ's SALE forecast for the next week -

THUR FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
Chance of Rain 90% 90% 70% 80% 50% 30% 30%
Rain Amount 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm

This mornings WATL for SALE with 1-5mm for FRI only, no other rain this far west.

This mornings local BOM forecast for home, N of Sale still has us at 4mm->29mm with the highest chance of rain at 70%
on Friday with 4mm->20mm.

ACCESS still showing promises for each day, Fri thru' to Sun.

EC - 4mm for the entire event.

No wonder expert weather forecasters and beginner observers alike are unable to call this event grin
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April 40mm to 0900 26th.

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#1410293 - 02/03/2017 09:23 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5614
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Forecast for Melbourne only has a slight chance of showers or maybe drizzle over the next few days. poke

If we get any rainfall from this "event" I'll be happy. My area was spoilt big time during the "no-thread" cold outbreak on February 19th/20th, with nearly 70mm clocked up! crazy

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#1410373 - 02/03/2017 17:14 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1437
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Terrific to hear that asf, thought at the time how good it was for your locale!

Our turn will come and every day is one closer, todays BOM forecast for here lightening off for the "event" re tomorrows possible rainfall.

Had about 0.1mm overnight, generations of frogs never seen rain - grin
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April 40mm to 0900 26th.

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#1410398 - 02/03/2017 18:52 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6334
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Thanks for starting this "professionally disclaimed" thread Samboz! smile - and loved that goanna photo! smile

As observed (mainly in the Vic upcoming weather thread) - this event (if there is one) (here I go disclaiming too!!! wink ) has been turning models inside-out over the past 5+ days.

.....but it is about to happen! .... well something is about to happen, somewhere in SE Aus, which is why we should always debate the model outcomes, even 5+ days out! Dosent matter what the end outcome is.

That said, this present MSLP reading would excite any SE Aus "ECL watcher" - ESPECIALLY if they knew the time of year was March:



Whatever the outcome, with the present synoptics, all jaded old weather observers would understand why the models kept a potential rainfall event "up their sleeves"!





Edited by Petros (02/03/2017 18:54)

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#1410416 - 02/03/2017 19:53 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6334
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest AccG run continues the divergence between it an GFS over coming days for SE Vic.

GFS remains rain-stingy - but AccG moots the possibility of some handy rain for Gippsland:



Like GFS, EC reckons "nup" for SE Vic too for this thread.

....best to keep up to date with the SatIR loops to interpret for yourself as to whats likely to occur from hereonin IMO...


Edited by Petros (02/03/2017 19:56)

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#1410420 - 02/03/2017 20:12 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 878
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Think u guys out east will have the best
Chance of getting anything remotely worth
While??? Like your saying Petros, a hard
Cookie to pick this next 4 days or so.
We are now needing a good drink over
This way but I'm feeling like the further west
U are the less probability of any worth while
Rain ?

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#1410422 - 02/03/2017 20:16 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6059
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Decent looking convection in the NE, can see it from here.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1410425 - 02/03/2017 20:21 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 878
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Read an article the other day, and the
Bom stating that it will be a very dry and hot
March!! leading to possibly some bad fire days!!

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#1410433 - 02/03/2017 21:14 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 539
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Most likely is decent rain only in far east of East Gippsland and perhaps far east of the NE. But, of course ... we shall see.

Your comments, Petros, are spot on - we're here on this forum for interest, for learning and for the sharing of ideas.

Yes, Doogasnow, the seasonal outlook is for a drier and warmer than average autumn which will build, in much of Gippsland, on a relatively dry 3 months.

I might not be on the forum too much in the next 2 weeks ... but I'll be watching and reading.

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#1410434 - 02/03/2017 21:22 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2162
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
The East is lucky ones and West bone and dry..

What stable hot weather for over a week and cool nights from South breeze to North..

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#1410505 - 03/03/2017 10:11 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5614
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Lol cheers Samboz! But I don't want to be greedy, everyone else across Victoria, from Gippsland to the Mallee and from the Southwest Coast to the Northeast, deserves a drink. Unfortunately that's up to the weather lol. smile

After yesterday's chilly, foggy start, we had a hot, mostly sunny top of 31.5C here in Belgrave. smile

I was out in Camberwell and later in Hawthorn and Kew yesterday arvo. Great weather, with the hot sun offset but a cooling breeze, although it was hazy and admittedly humid, and the fog that had been affecting Melbourne still hadn't quite burnt off!

From my viewpoint, there was still plenty of low cloud blowing in from Port Phillip, Western Port and Bass Strait. The tops of the tallest skyscrapers in the City (including the Eureka and Rialto towers) could be seen poking up into the clouds at times. Meanwhile, the northeastern half of the Melbourne metropolitan area where I was stayed almost cloud-free. smile

A bit of convection could be seen bubbling away over the ranges to the northeast while I was in Ringwood around 4pmish, but I can't confirm if showers or thunderstorms resulted from that activity.

It became overcast around sunset last night, and still cloudy but not foggy here. Overnight low of 16.9C, at the last check it was around 19C.

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#1410507 - 03/03/2017 10:21 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1437
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Couple of small showers this morning, nothing in them to speak of @ <1mm.

ACCESS has the E.C.L. 1004hPa very nicely formed up just North of Mallacoota by 0500hrs Sunday next, with the rain mass just South of the 1004 low.

The low is then shown to move off to the N/E.

It will be interesting if this ECL coriolis effect can rotate some rain for us further E in Vic. BOM isn't talking that up at this stage but given the volatility of the event......?


_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April 40mm to 0900 26th.

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#1410523 - 03/03/2017 10:53 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1437
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Very good modelling of coriolis effect re the E.C.L. here -

https://www.windytv.com/?2017-03-04-18,-37.840,147.876,6
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April 40mm to 0900 26th.

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#1410597 - 03/03/2017 18:37 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6334
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
You should be reporting for the BOM Samboz! wink re the title "ECL?" - AccessR agrees with your prescience and spawns the pip of an ECL to form off SE NSW as early as tomorrow morning!:



BOM commentary on Merimbula forecast(? - cant recall where I read that only 5 mins ago!) expects that the low may initially track South, against AccR's prog's. Time will tell these things when they form at this location at this time of the year can be wild little (tight isobars) beasts. ....or fizzle out and rapidly spin off eastwards.

GFS and EC have little interest in this system becoming significant.

For my 2 bob's, this system was "strirred up" by the tip of a passing long wave trough last night that grazed Tassie and is now near NZ, nothing unusual.

But significantly, the moisture for this event is derived from the NE due to warm SE NSW ocean temps and an established coastal trough.

My experience with GFS in these situations is that it's best skill is interpreting outcomes at this time of the year from setups where the moisture source is a result of a NW cloud band emanating from WA.

Time will tell, watch and be entertained.

For the Vic WZ forum folk, Petros will be sacrificing a Pambula beach sun-baking holiday, instead for (potentially) wind and rain reporting duties at Pambula from tomorrow on for a few days. frown

....at least Samboz provided enough warning for me to renew the tyres on the car before we tackle those potential conditions.



Edited by Petros (03/03/2017 18:46)

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#1410614 - 03/03/2017 19:29 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 878
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Could be an interesting trip up around
That Pambula area Petros! Lol
I reckon that's about the area all the rain will
Be for this event!!
Just can't see a little if any at all rain
Getting to were we are?? Hope I'm wrong
Tho, models all seem to keep the good rain
To Far East?

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#1410627 - 03/03/2017 20:56 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: ThunderBob]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1437
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
We'll press on in your absence TB, as for the senior cit., heading East on new tyres, hopefully he gets drenched and points the rain this way.... grin
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April 40mm to 0900 26th.

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#1410629 - 03/03/2017 21:09 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5614
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Enjoy the NSW South Coast Petros, in spite of the possibly lousy weather ahead. smile

Reached a nice and hot 30.3C here in Belgrave today. Took until about 11am for the Sun to really come out, but once it did the weather was absolutely gorgeous! Skies were partly cloudy until mid-afternoon, and all day we had a fresh, cooling, gusty east/southeasterly breeze. smile

At the last check it was around 20C.

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