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#1410219 - 01/03/2017 18:49 Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ?
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1378
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
The approaching yes/no rain event may/may not drop/not happen with rain over the next five days/or so.

If it is happening the rain might be somewhere between 4mm and 28mm. - according to our local BOM forecast.

That's narrowing it down by the experts with huge resources, for tyros here the ants are building little sand mounds between the pavers and we had black cockies in a tree last week and a Goanna walking across the lawn looking thirsty, I kid you not.

grin

ACCESS looks good over Sat & Sunday, maybe 20mm in it.

ACCESS shows - an E.C.L. 1008hPa begins to form off the south NSW coast, just above the Vic border, late on Sunday night and appears to be a cut off low later Monday morning deepening to 1004hPa as it moves offshore and N the remainder of Monday and Tuesday next.

GFS this arvo doesn't show anywhere in Vic with better than 5mm.

EC reckons about 6.5mm for the event.

Whatever rainfall occurs will be gratefully rec'd as will be the cool low/mid 20's weather after tomorrows low 30C.
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March - 49mm to 0900 30th.

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#1410228 - 01/03/2017 19:41 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1378
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Thirsty Goanna at home -

_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March - 49mm to 0900 30th.

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#1410260 - 01/03/2017 22:37 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1378
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
This was the forecast two days ago.

Originally Posted By: samboz
Getting a little excited........... grin

When you see models like this........ grin grin



_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March - 49mm to 0900 30th.

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#1410281 - 02/03/2017 08:17 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1378
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
WZ's SALE forecast for the next week -

THUR FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
Chance of Rain 90% 90% 70% 80% 50% 30% 30%
Rain Amount 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm

This mornings WATL for SALE with 1-5mm for FRI only, no other rain this far west.

This mornings local BOM forecast for home, N of Sale still has us at 4mm->29mm with the highest chance of rain at 70%
on Friday with 4mm->20mm.

ACCESS still showing promises for each day, Fri thru' to Sun.

EC - 4mm for the entire event.

No wonder expert weather forecasters and beginner observers alike are unable to call this event grin
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March - 49mm to 0900 30th.

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#1410293 - 02/03/2017 09:23 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5532
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Forecast for Melbourne only has a slight chance of showers or maybe drizzle over the next few days. poke

If we get any rainfall from this "event" I'll be happy. My area was spoilt big time during the "no-thread" cold outbreak on February 19th/20th, with nearly 70mm clocked up! crazy

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#1410373 - 02/03/2017 17:14 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1378
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Terrific to hear that asf, thought at the time how good it was for your locale!

Our turn will come and every day is one closer, todays BOM forecast for here lightening off for the "event" re tomorrows possible rainfall.

Had about 0.1mm overnight, generations of frogs never seen rain - grin
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March - 49mm to 0900 30th.

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#1410398 - 02/03/2017 18:52 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6309
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Thanks for starting this "professionally disclaimed" thread Samboz! smile - and loved that goanna photo! smile

As observed (mainly in the Vic upcoming weather thread) - this event (if there is one) (here I go disclaiming too!!! wink ) has been turning models inside-out over the past 5+ days.

.....but it is about to happen! .... well something is about to happen, somewhere in SE Aus, which is why we should always debate the model outcomes, even 5+ days out! Dosent matter what the end outcome is.

That said, this present MSLP reading would excite any SE Aus "ECL watcher" - ESPECIALLY if they knew the time of year was March:



Whatever the outcome, with the present synoptics, all jaded old weather observers would understand why the models kept a potential rainfall event "up their sleeves"!





Edited by Petros (02/03/2017 18:54)

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#1410416 - 02/03/2017 19:53 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6309
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest AccG run continues the divergence between it an GFS over coming days for SE Vic.

GFS remains rain-stingy - but AccG moots the possibility of some handy rain for Gippsland:



Like GFS, EC reckons "nup" for SE Vic too for this thread.

....best to keep up to date with the SatIR loops to interpret for yourself as to whats likely to occur from hereonin IMO...


Edited by Petros (02/03/2017 19:56)

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#1410420 - 02/03/2017 20:12 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 867
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Think u guys out east will have the best
Chance of getting anything remotely worth
While??? Like your saying Petros, a hard
Cookie to pick this next 4 days or so.
We are now needing a good drink over
This way but I'm feeling like the further west
U are the less probability of any worth while
Rain ?

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#1410422 - 02/03/2017 20:16 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6039
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Decent looking convection in the NE, can see it from here.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1410425 - 02/03/2017 20:21 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 867
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Read an article the other day, and the
Bom stating that it will be a very dry and hot
March!! leading to possibly some bad fire days!!

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#1410433 - 02/03/2017 21:14 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 534
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Most likely is decent rain only in far east of East Gippsland and perhaps far east of the NE. But, of course ... we shall see.

Your comments, Petros, are spot on - we're here on this forum for interest, for learning and for the sharing of ideas.

Yes, Doogasnow, the seasonal outlook is for a drier and warmer than average autumn which will build, in much of Gippsland, on a relatively dry 3 months.

I might not be on the forum too much in the next 2 weeks ... but I'll be watching and reading.

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#1410434 - 02/03/2017 21:22 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2140
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
The East is lucky ones and West bone and dry..

What stable hot weather for over a week and cool nights from South breeze to North..

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#1410505 - 03/03/2017 10:11 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5532
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Lol cheers Samboz! But I don't want to be greedy, everyone else across Victoria, from Gippsland to the Mallee and from the Southwest Coast to the Northeast, deserves a drink. Unfortunately that's up to the weather lol. smile

After yesterday's chilly, foggy start, we had a hot, mostly sunny top of 31.5C here in Belgrave. smile

I was out in Camberwell and later in Hawthorn and Kew yesterday arvo. Great weather, with the hot sun offset but a cooling breeze, although it was hazy and admittedly humid, and the fog that had been affecting Melbourne still hadn't quite burnt off!

From my viewpoint, there was still plenty of low cloud blowing in from Port Phillip, Western Port and Bass Strait. The tops of the tallest skyscrapers in the City (including the Eureka and Rialto towers) could be seen poking up into the clouds at times. Meanwhile, the northeastern half of the Melbourne metropolitan area where I was stayed almost cloud-free. smile

A bit of convection could be seen bubbling away over the ranges to the northeast while I was in Ringwood around 4pmish, but I can't confirm if showers or thunderstorms resulted from that activity.

It became overcast around sunset last night, and still cloudy but not foggy here. Overnight low of 16.9C, at the last check it was around 19C.

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#1410507 - 03/03/2017 10:21 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1378
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Couple of small showers this morning, nothing in them to speak of @ <1mm.

ACCESS has the E.C.L. 1004hPa very nicely formed up just North of Mallacoota by 0500hrs Sunday next, with the rain mass just South of the 1004 low.

The low is then shown to move off to the N/E.

It will be interesting if this ECL coriolis effect can rotate some rain for us further E in Vic. BOM isn't talking that up at this stage but given the volatility of the event......?


_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March - 49mm to 0900 30th.

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#1410523 - 03/03/2017 10:53 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1378
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Very good modelling of coriolis effect re the E.C.L. here -

https://www.windytv.com/?2017-03-04-18,-37.840,147.876,6
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March - 49mm to 0900 30th.

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#1410597 - 03/03/2017 18:37 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6309
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
You should be reporting for the BOM Samboz! wink re the title "ECL?" - AccessR agrees with your prescience and spawns the pip of an ECL to form off SE NSW as early as tomorrow morning!:



BOM commentary on Merimbula forecast(? - cant recall where I read that only 5 mins ago!) expects that the low may initially track South, against AccR's prog's. Time will tell these things when they form at this location at this time of the year can be wild little (tight isobars) beasts. ....or fizzle out and rapidly spin off eastwards.

GFS and EC have little interest in this system becoming significant.

For my 2 bob's, this system was "strirred up" by the tip of a passing long wave trough last night that grazed Tassie and is now near NZ, nothing unusual.

But significantly, the moisture for this event is derived from the NE due to warm SE NSW ocean temps and an established coastal trough.

My experience with GFS in these situations is that it's best skill is interpreting outcomes at this time of the year from setups where the moisture source is a result of a NW cloud band emanating from WA.

Time will tell, watch and be entertained.

For the Vic WZ forum folk, Petros will be sacrificing a Pambula beach sun-baking holiday, instead for (potentially) wind and rain reporting duties at Pambula from tomorrow on for a few days. frown

....at least Samboz provided enough warning for me to renew the tyres on the car before we tackle those potential conditions.



Edited by Petros (03/03/2017 18:46)

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#1410614 - 03/03/2017 19:29 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 867
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Could be an interesting trip up around
That Pambula area Petros! Lol
I reckon that's about the area all the rain will
Be for this event!!
Just can't see a little if any at all rain
Getting to were we are?? Hope I'm wrong
Tho, models all seem to keep the good rain
To Far East?

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#1410627 - 03/03/2017 20:56 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: ThunderBob]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1378
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
We'll press on in your absence TB, as for the senior cit., heading East on new tyres, hopefully he gets drenched and points the rain this way.... grin
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March - 49mm to 0900 30th.

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#1410629 - 03/03/2017 21:09 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5532
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Enjoy the NSW South Coast Petros, in spite of the possibly lousy weather ahead. smile

Reached a nice and hot 30.3C here in Belgrave today. Took until about 11am for the Sun to really come out, but once it did the weather was absolutely gorgeous! Skies were partly cloudy until mid-afternoon, and all day we had a fresh, cooling, gusty east/southeasterly breeze. smile

At the last check it was around 20C.

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#1410634 - 03/03/2017 21:20 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1378
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Oh gee, forgot our 0.4mm today and maybe 25C'ish.

Calm most of the day.

ACCESS not giving any hope at all for further rain from this
non event.

Originally Posted By: Petros

Time will tell, watch and be entertained.


Waiting, waiting........... grin
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March - 49mm to 0900 30th.

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#1410666 - 04/03/2017 08:46 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6039
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
More convection to the distant NE yesterday pm and even a failed attempt at showers trying to develop over Macedon Ranges. Models and unstable sky suggest half chance this arvo
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1410682 - 04/03/2017 11:12 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5532
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 14.1C, currently around 22C and sunny. smile

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#1410702 - 04/03/2017 13:03 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6039
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Lovely cu field around me
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1410703 - 04/03/2017 13:07 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: Ruckle]
Weather_Viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 248
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
Originally Posted By: Ruckle
Lovely cu field around me


Can see it in the distance from my kitchen window here in Tarneit Ruckle. Some big towers by the looks of it.
_________________________
Wunderground

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#1410708 - 04/03/2017 13:33 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5532
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Yeah I can see the buildup to my northwest, but only just. Looks impressive! smile

Currently around 31C here in Belgrave. Apart from the convection off to the northwest, it's a clear, hot, sunny day with a cooling breeze. smile

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#1410717 - 04/03/2017 14:39 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1099
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
Look at the visible satellite! Certainly looks like a barrier forming to the north along the Metro border! 😳
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

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#1410718 - 04/03/2017 14:40 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1099
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
The title of this thread is "rain event 2-7th of March" I haven't seen any rain! All sun since then! 😂
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

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#1410723 - 04/03/2017 15:23 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6039
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Thunder! Sun out and it has drifted north a little with seabreeze boundary.

Eastern edge of complex immediately to my north, to close to get a photo of the anvil to the left of this congestus



Edit: more thunder
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1410729 - 04/03/2017 16:25 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6039
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Quite a lot of rumbles to my NW, nice arvo
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1410730 - 04/03/2017 16:26 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1099
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
Seabreeze Boundary! It is just another term for HAARP forcefield 😳
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

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#1410733 - 04/03/2017 17:01 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6039
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Just to my north but tragically heading northward. So close and yet so far.



_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1410738 - 04/03/2017 17:07 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2140
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
More cells shooting up around Bendigo seem heat mix rise humidity cool uppers from South East is growing fast falling rain.
Can see fat cell in South..

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#1410740 - 04/03/2017 17:21 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6309
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
A showery trip from Cabbage Tree to Eden, dry here at Pambula, only 20C with fresh SSE'ly atm. Thinking about searching for a jumper. Heavily overcast to the north - where Bega has had more than 2 inches of rain since 9am!

Surface closed Low is now analysed off circa Sydney, despite it supposedly tracking S for 12 hours or so, not expected to impact Pambula much according to BOM analysis.

There has been heaps of rain here in Pambula over the past 2 days though!

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#1410744 - 04/03/2017 17:48 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1099
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
The radar is giving more evidence of a shield/forcefield or a Seabreeze boundary as people want to call it
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

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#1410751 - 04/03/2017 18:40 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2140
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Had heavy 1mm rain its slow moving Cell.
Very rare to get get Thunderstorms from South direction of Woodend To Bendigo and felt cool winds from South as very common in winter as usually dries out.

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#1410754 - 04/03/2017 18:50 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2140
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Bendigo is in middle of wind-shear crash that blew up the cells is in East is Easterly upper wind and West is SW direction upper winds..
Can see it visable..
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/austeast/movies/gmswv/gmswv_loop.html

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#1410809 - 04/03/2017 22:51 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
gleno01 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2010
Posts: 87
Loc: Shepparton
had a ripper of a thunderstorm, very isolated heavy rain 11.2 mm, nice and handy
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check out my you tube channel gleno2008

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#1410847 - 05/03/2017 08:57 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1378
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Thanks for the pics Ruckle, it was happening up there!

Handy rain gleno, send some down here....it is lightly misting/heavy verga and the paths are wet, barely registering in the gauge though.

Looking at ACCESS just now it was interesting to see the LOW hanging around between us and NZ for the next 6 days.

No rain to speak of with ACCESS & GFS but some monsoonal activity up north that might send something our way.
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March - 49mm to 0900 30th.

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#1410848 - 05/03/2017 08:58 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5532
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a hot, sunny 34.0C in Belgrave yesterday. smile

Skies were cloudfree, except for the showers and thunderstorms over the Macedon Ranges to the northwest, and for high cloud to the northeast from the low off the East Coast.

As for today...

Overnight low of 16.4C, at the last check it was around 18C. Left home for Dandenong about 20 minutes ago in fog and heavy drizzle (no rain recorded in my gauge though). The drizzle isn't being picked up on the Melbourne radar.

The weather here in Dandenong is improving, with the showers clearing, and we're getting glimpses of blue sky here and there! smile

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#1410879 - 05/03/2017 10:24 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1099
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
Lovely photos there. Still haven't had more than some mizzle. Just barely wet that car!
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

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#1410891 - 05/03/2017 11:43 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1378
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
The satellite is interesting -

http://satview.bom.gov.au/

Click on the bottom right icon, (beside the triangle) for a narrative. it won't let me copy/paste but indicates surface trough and low pressure system (E.C.L.) in a moist easterly air stream while a moist south easterly air stream is producing low cloud over B/Strait & Southern Vic.

(Edit - Infra red & Zehr is good)

Currently actually raining here, with almost nil wind,must be up to a magnificient 3mm for this thread event now........the low pressure coriolis effect seems to be getting into gear, well that's my wild a*se guess with b/all expertise grin


Edited by samboz (05/03/2017 11:44)
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March - 49mm to 0900 30th.

Top
#1410893 - 05/03/2017 12:05 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Weather_Viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 248
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
Very muggy out there, thankfully not hot enough to make it uncomfortable.
This weather is very reminiscent of Northern NSW, Coffs Harbour for example when they get those moist humid winds off the Pacific.
_________________________
Wunderground

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#1410902 - 05/03/2017 12:44 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1378
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Ditto here an hour & half ago when the cloud gapped long enough for some sun to belt in, very warm/humid until this bit of rain wandered thru', still coming down at a light->medium rate, 4+mm now, or roughly 11% of this years rainfall !

The radar is showing some chance of more laugh
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March - 49mm to 0900 30th.

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#1410914 - 05/03/2017 13:33 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 867
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Nice samboz 😀 At least your getting something
Out there.

I'm sitting at the window waiting waiting
For something to happen!!!

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#1410916 - 05/03/2017 13:52 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1378
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Cleared now Dooga', but 6.5mm (for the event) in the gauge now.

Radar shows we are still in a S/E air flow, the satellite is showing uppers in the opposite direction.

S/W of Darwin winding up........
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March - 49mm to 0900 30th.

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#1410961 - 05/03/2017 17:22 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6309
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Venture into Maffra Samboz! - I hear it got circa 25mm rain overnight! - and Sale stuff-all!

Only a brief heavy shower at 9am today to report from Pambula. 23C mostly overcast with fresh southerly.

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#1410972 - 05/03/2017 18:22 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5532
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a warm, humid top of 28.6C here in Belgrave. Thankfully, despite the hot sunshine there was a fresh, gusty southeasterly to cool things off. Kinda felt like a pleasant summer's day in Merimbula! smile

Been hazy and partly cloudy at times too, with the clouds looking kinda bubbly around mid-afternoon, as if a shower and/or thunderstorm might develop. But nothing came of it. frown

Currently around 23C.

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#1410976 - 05/03/2017 18:50 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1378
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Would be possible for Maffra P, saw considerable dark area to our S, head right for Maffra.

Been overcast and very little wind, saw 22C and still 21C now.
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March - 49mm to 0900 30th.

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#1411063 - 06/03/2017 10:57 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6309
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Pambula. 23C mostly overcast with fresh southerly.

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#1411069 - 06/03/2017 12:11 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1378
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
That southern cyclone almost got here P., the 6.5mm was still very handy of course. While we have a chance of a shower here today it won't be much, the odd light rain mass showing on the radar coming in from the ENE.

Days getting much shorter with daylight about 1.5hrs later so less time for the day to heat up.

My weather corres. in N/E Maffra fringe reported 15.5mm and was pretty happy with that!

21.5C and calm, lovely day here.
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March - 49mm to 0900 30th.

Top
#1411072 - 06/03/2017 12:37 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1378
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Originally Posted By: samboz
coming in from the ENE.


Wrong, coming in from S/E, looked different on the radar earlier blush
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March - 49mm to 0900 30th.

Top
#1411098 - 06/03/2017 18:24 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Weather_Viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 248
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
Latest ACCESS models have decided to ramp up the heat for this weekend, contrary to the cooler conditions forecast by BOM this afternoon.

Definitely an Indian Summer!
_________________________
Wunderground

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#1411117 - 06/03/2017 20:01 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6309
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Cold southerly drizzle looks likely to settle in here! Jumpers on.

....ooops - here being Pambula.


Edited by Petros (06/03/2017 20:02)

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#1411120 - 06/03/2017 20:08 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 867
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Easterly is blowing again with a sunny
Top of 25c up here today.
Still no rain and dosent look like there will
Be now until the weekend??😨

Petros - unlucky mate to get away only
To have rainy drizzly conditions, it's usually
Picture perfect up around Merimbula/ Pambula.
Here hopping it clears up soon so u can
Enjoy the rest of your trip.

We are heading to twofold bay near Eden
For Easter period, so hopefully we get a good
Patch of weather then??

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#1411121 - 06/03/2017 20:10 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6309
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Geez Samboz -when you predict an "ECL?" - you dont muck around! :

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#1411131 - 06/03/2017 20:56 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1378
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March - 49mm to 0900 30th.

Top
#1411140 - 06/03/2017 22:55 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5532
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 13.6C, reached a warm, sunny 27.5C here in Belgrave today. Right now it's around 17C. smile

A continuation of the perfect "Indian Summer" we've had lately! It dawned a tad chilly, with a bit of dew that needed wiping off the car before I left for work at 7:30am. Plenty of low cloud racing northwest across Melbourne as I drove down to Boronia (brushing against the tops of the Dandenong Ranges, including the summit of Mount Dandenong), accompanied by a fresh southeasterly that's been blowing all day. Also noted a bit of morning fog in the Yarra Valley. smile

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#1411307 - 08/03/2017 10:30 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2140
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Looks like just average warm Autumn days and starting cool to cold nights and SW change is coming more to kill Easterly dip High pressure and Heave wave is sightly the end for Northern Country.

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#1411356 - 08/03/2017 16:31 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5532
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 12.0C, reached a top of 32.0C here in Belgrave this arvo. The mercury didn't mess around, managing a full 20C temperature spread today! After yet another rather chilly morning, it was a hot, dry, mostly sunny afternoon, offset somewhat by the continuing easterly breeze. smile

Certainly felt toasty while I was down in Boronia earlier this arvo. poke

Currently around 31C.

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#1411370 - 08/03/2017 17:34 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Weather_Viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 248
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
Reached a top of 32.2 here in Tarneit according to my PWS. More of the same tomorrow, Summer is still holding on wink
_________________________
Wunderground

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#1411379 - 08/03/2017 18:29 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6309
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
A pleasant 26C here, mostly sunny with a late easterly sea breeze.

Re the Samboz "ECL?" - the bloody thing is still hanging around at in Tasman!



I name it "Southern cyclone Samboz".

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#1411386 - 08/03/2017 19:34 Re: Rain event, Thursday 2nd - Tuesday 7th March, 2017, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1378
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
or

"The approaching yes/no rain event may/may not drop/not happen with rain over the next five days/or so"

Hope you didn't leave your false teeth in Pambula mate.... grin laugh
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March - 49mm to 0900 30th.

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