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#1409909 - 28/02/2017 05:45 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3849
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
1-2 months doth not a drought make.
pretty much what bom have been saying for the last month or so
anyway although they are more conservative in as much as a
drier than average autumn and increased moisture levels and
rainfall over the eastcoast.
makes for the possibility of a retrograde low but more likely
one of my favs. a trough and associated heat,moisture and
thunderstorms but they're as rare as rocking horse poop and
pretty much pie in the sky atm.
some models are showing some moisture retrograding from vic
mid next week looks to be shallow penetration into s.a. at
this stage but another one to keep an eye on.
ec's sniffing at an interesting scenario atm for the weekending
after this with hardcore heat (40+) and a significant follow
up front and associated rainband.
tbh for this time of year that is a very bog standard normal
scenario that heralds the end of summer and sets us up for
the long slippery slide into winter.
change on the weekend is looking to be another dry argument.
there might not be much going on atm but things are certainly
not boring, for me anyway.

TH
_________________________
it doesn't matter if you're 7 years old or 70 years old, a world leader or a lowly battler,
respect can only ever be earned, it can never be commanded.
TH - 1980s

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#1409936 - 28/02/2017 10:52 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: ThD Ht]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 459
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Originally Posted By: ThD Ht

makes for the possibility of a retrograde low but more likely
one of my favs. a trough and associated heat,moisture and
thunderstorms but they're as rare as rocking horse poop and
pretty much pie in the sky atm.
some models are showing some moisture retrograding from vic
mid next week looks to be shallow penetration into s.a. at
this stage but another one to keep an eye on.
ec's sniffing at an interesting scenario atm for the weekending
after this with hardcore heat (40+) and a significant follow
up front and associated rainband.
tbh for this time of year that is a very bog standard normal
scenario that heralds the end of summer and sets us up for
the long slippery slide into winter.


TH



Bring on either of those scenarios my friend, actually can I have both? lol
I love nothing better than a retrograding Low/Trough followed by a burst of heat with a strong cold cold front.Awesome stuff grin
_________________________
I hate it when somebody comes
to your front door and puts their finger
over the peephole . . . so to get around
that I've got eleven peepholes.
Elliot Goblet

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#1409974 - 28/02/2017 14:02 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 459
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Nice convection on the ranges behind here gone up last couple of hours, interesting to watch....
_________________________
I hate it when somebody comes
to your front door and puts their finger
over the peephole . . . so to get around
that I've got eleven peepholes.
Elliot Goblet

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#1410011 - 28/02/2017 18:01 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3849
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
yer you're not kidding Je, it'll come eventually.
there's some nice snap,crackle and pop out there for sure,
one look at that stuff and you'd think it's going to go ape.
visible sat looks nuts, lets one see and Analise coastal
wind profiles and how they work. how there's sea breeze on
ep and bugger all down in the s.e.
managed to crack exactly 36 so far down here in the
suthnburbs,it's 5 o'clock so i think that's about it
on this one.
still, i no complain, 2 over the forecast and tomorrow's
bin upgraded, booyah, bring it on. everything goes pear
shaped after that though. all below 35.

TH
_________________________
it doesn't matter if you're 7 years old or 70 years old, a world leader or a lowly battler,
respect can only ever be earned, it can never be commanded.
TH - 1980s

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#1410015 - 28/02/2017 18:16 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: ThD Ht]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6741
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: ThD Ht
1-2 months doth not a drought make.

It might not make the definition itself, on a technically-accurate gobs-mackingly detailed way...but it's good enough for dry conditions to me!!!


Edited by teckert (28/02/2017 19:08)

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#1410031 - 28/02/2017 19:11 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17415
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
yer certainly looks like a dry autumn/winter thats for sure. Holding onto the hope (and suggestions) that a La Nina follow to come afterwards...

Meanwhile, some light showers over some parts this arvo, and in fact, a decent storm or two currently over central EP.... Should see bit of the same over next 2 days as well... In the end models last week pretty much were spot on with the instability present (see my post from the 23rd feb!)

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#1410084 - 28/02/2017 23:24 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Galaxyman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2016
Posts: 181
Loc: Renmark
Sensational effort by Adelaide with their 27.5C overnight low. Hilariously, down at Murray Bridge the low was 13C.

Nice balmy evening, 31.0C in Adelaide, 28.9C on my PWS, yet only 22.6C at Renmark Airport and 20.5C in Loxton! I'm only 10km from the airport in town next to the river. That's crazy.

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#1410093 - 01/03/2017 03:54 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: teckert]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3849
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
Originally Posted By: teckert
yer certainly looks like a dry autumn/winter thats for sure. Holding onto the hope (and suggestions) that a La Nina follow to come afterwards...


just looking at the graph general trend since 1970 seems to
indicate the next 5 years will be mostly in the -ve however
local short term spiking can have the soi in the +ve for any
amount of time during the period of general -ve trend, so
unfortunately its a flip of the coin as to which way it will
go for the next twelve months, one would think that after
such a strong -ve and currently hovering on the fence it
will spike into the +ve.
having said that i think this quote from bom says it a lot
better and is far more informed.

The El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. However, recent changes in both the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere, and climate model outlooks surveyed by the Bureau, suggest the likelihood of El Nio forming in 2017 has risen. As a result, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook status has been upgraded to El Nio WATCH, meaning the likelihood of El Nio forming in 2017 is approximately 50%.

All atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO are currently within neutral thresholds. However, sea surface temperatures have been increasing in the eastern Pacific Ocean and are now warmer than average for the first time since June 2016, while the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has been trending downwards.

Seven of eight international models surveyed by the Bureau indicate steady warming in the central tropical Pacific Ocean over the next six months. Six models suggest El Nio thresholds may be reached by July 2017. However, some caution must be taken at this time of year, with lower model accuracy through the autumn months compared to other times of the year.

El Nio is often associated with below average winterspring rainfall over eastern Australia and warmer than average winterspring maximum temperatures over the southern half of Australia.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has little influence on Australia from December to April. Current outlooks suggest a neutral IOD may persist until the end of autumn.

so as things stand were in neutral on two of the three fronts
which is why were on a dryer than average watch. we've still
got those polar pulses up out sleeve speaking of which EC is
starting to get carried away with itself for weekend the 10th.
gfs has something happening a couple of days later.
they both still got us getting a late next week swish of heat
as well.

TH
_________________________
it doesn't matter if you're 7 years old or 70 years old, a world leader or a lowly battler,
respect can only ever be earned, it can never be commanded.
TH - 1980s

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#1410106 - 01/03/2017 08:34 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17415
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Should be some half decent showers/odd storm over EP later today. Maybe also a couple showers over Mid North, but reforming & extending over the Mid North more extensively tomorrow.
Wouldnt surprise me tomorrow if there is even a couple showers over Barossa and nth burbs & hills.

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#1410226 - 01/03/2017 19:26 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17415
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Been some very impressive and lightning active storms on central and nth EP today.
Models still suggesting chance tomorrow in Mid North and Barossa, so chance I might even chk them out if I can.

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#1410271 - 02/03/2017 05:04 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3849
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
storms yesterday were the result of a mid level trough
through central EP forced by a southerly enhanced seabreeze.
forecast soundings for EP yesterday were good and conducive
to storm development with marginal but at least some lfc and
minimal cap. today for where you're talking is far
more marginal and really it's looking to be western or sw
mid north the area between pt wakefield - pt broughton, lfc on
soundings is on par or less than lapse rate and it that's not
enough cap is crap and the small midlevel trough yesterday has
become a mid level ridge over EP. reallife situation is going
to have to deviate significantly from what i'm reading on the
model for anything significant to happen which is certainly not
unheard of but as it stands an interesting one to watch from
the armchair. might be a good structure fest though.

TH
_________________________
it doesn't matter if you're 7 years old or 70 years old, a world leader or a lowly battler,
respect can only ever be earned, it can never be commanded.
TH - 1980s

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#1410284 - 02/03/2017 08:49 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17415
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Are you just looking at GFS? Or are you also checking out CMC/EC/ACCESS?

Yes it's fairly marginal and the trough is weakening, but should be showers/storms across anywhere north of about Wudinna-Bordertown, but best spot most likely upper Mid North.

Btw it's a surface trough not mid level. Its been meandering across central SA since Monday.

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#1410341 - 02/03/2017 14:54 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17415
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
I'm currently just nth of the Williamstown storm. Putting out occasional cc's.

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#1410344 - 02/03/2017 15:09 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1511
Loc: Bridgewater

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#1410357 - 02/03/2017 16:23 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
DJFO81 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 26
Loc: Ballarat, VIC
Thunder in Hillbank

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#1410365 - 02/03/2017 16:55 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Werner K Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/11/2011
Posts: 439
Loc: Flinders Park, SA
Nice mushroom cloud visible to my NE from Kilburn. Very impressive looking!

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#1410367 - 02/03/2017 16:58 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
JohnC Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2011
Posts: 151
Loc: Adelaide, South Australia
A friend in Craigmore just said it's hailing at his house. o.0
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http://jcroucher.com/weather/

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#1410369 - 02/03/2017 17:05 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3849
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
yer you nailed it Tek,good stuff, no need to rub me nose in it.
walked out of work looking to the south and bugger all,
looked to the north and nearly had a cow.
biggest, best looking atmospheric tesla coil i've seen in
years, i thought this morning when i last posted with 25 pwats
if it does blow the cap with some decent lfc it should be clean
and explosive.
i only had time to look at bsch gfs.
there will be millions of pics of that, the news weather
should be rolling in it.
that thing should be hailing golf balls.
what an absolute ball tearer.

TH
_________________________
it doesn't matter if you're 7 years old or 70 years old, a world leader or a lowly battler,
respect can only ever be earned, it can never be commanded.
TH - 1980s

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#1410380 - 02/03/2017 17:46 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Pooley72 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/01/2017
Posts: 26
Loc: Seacliff Park
[img]http://https://www.dropbox.com/s/gvo59iux42q1hxd/IMAG0320.jpg?dl=0[/img]

I took this picture of the cell at about 15:30 near Flinders Medical Centre. The photo doesn't really do it justice.
_________________________
My PWS: www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=INOARLUN2

Jan: 52.2mm
Feb: 32.8mm
Mar: 20.9mm
Apr:
May:
Jun:
Jul:
Aug
Sep:
Oct:
Nov:
Dec:

2017: 107.9mm

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#1410389 - 02/03/2017 18:19 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Pooley72]
Pooley72 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/01/2017
Posts: 26
Loc: Seacliff Park

Originally Posted By: Pooley72

I took this picture of the cell at about 15:30 near Flinders Medical Centre. The photo doesn't really do it justice.


hmmm, let's try that again...

_________________________
My PWS: www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=INOARLUN2

Jan: 52.2mm
Feb: 32.8mm
Mar: 20.9mm
Apr:
May:
Jun:
Jul:
Aug
Sep:
Oct:
Nov:
Dec:

2017: 107.9mm

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