yer certainly looks like a dry autumn/winter thats for sure. Holding onto the hope (and suggestions) that a La Nina follow to come afterwards...
just looking at the graph general trend since 1970 seems to
indicate the next 5 years will be mostly in the -ve however
local short term spiking can have the soi in the +ve for any
amount of time during the period of general -ve trend, so
unfortunately its a flip of the coin as to which way it will
go for the next twelve months, one would think that after
such a strong -ve and currently hovering on the fence it
will spike into the +ve.
having said that i think this quote from bom says it a lot
better and is far more informed.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. However, recent changes in both the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere, and climate model outlooks surveyed by the Bureau, suggest the likelihood of El Niño forming in 2017 has risen. As a result, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook status has been upgraded to El Niño WATCH, meaning the likelihood of El Niño forming in 2017 is approximately 50%.
All atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO are currently within neutral thresholds. However, sea surface temperatures have been increasing in the eastern Pacific Ocean and are now warmer than average for the first time since June 2016, while the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has been trending downwards.
Seven of eight international models surveyed by the Bureau indicate steady warming in the central tropical Pacific Ocean over the next six months. Six models suggest El Niño thresholds may be reached by July 2017. However, some caution must be taken at this time of year, with lower model accuracy through the autumn months compared to other times of the year.
El Niño is often associated with below average winter–spring rainfall over eastern Australia and warmer than average winter–spring maximum temperatures over the southern half of Australia.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has little influence on Australia from December to April. Current outlooks suggest a neutral IOD may persist until the end of autumn.
so as things stand were in neutral on two of the three fronts
which is why were on a dryer than average watch. we've still
got those polar pulses up out sleeve speaking of which EC is
starting to get carried away with itself for weekend the 10th.
gfs has something happening a couple of days later.
they both still got us getting a late next week swish of heat