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#1410571 - 03/03/2017 16:48 Autumn Forecast & Climate Outlook (Eastern Australia)
Scott Hansen Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/11/2015
Posts: 76
Loc: Aspley, Queensland
I had been forecasting a very good chance of an early Autumn break commencing in the first week of Autumn, and that an above average Autumn was most likely to evolve.

Well now with the aid of the latest SST maps and the BOM’s latest info, together with the most up to date understanding of the present climate drivers, I now forecast there is almost no chance of an early autumn break this year.

All was looking good for Autumn rain, up until early February, when a large upwelling of cool SST commenced along the NT and WA Coastal regions, This cool SST is one of the first negative rain forces that often precedes the development of El Nino conditions later in the year. These cooler sea surface conditions very effectively diminished the tropical cyclones in late January and to this day no pacific cyclones have made it to the Qld coast line this season, leaving 90% of Qld still drought declared, and very dry in northern NSW.

On the brighter side of things the lunar and planetary forces are now building in strength, and will reach peak strength for this year, close to the New moon period in early May. So this early and late May May period, now represents the most likely time for the heaviest rain events to sweep across the MDB regions and eastern Australia, for this year.

But given the present overall conditions, I now have to inform you all, that my forecast is now for, only about 50 to 60% of average Autumn rainfall with most of it falling in early and late May, if it falls at all!! Keep in mind; it is the southern air tides pushing in under the warmer more humid northern air streams, that will be the driving forces for most Autumn rain events . The sea surfaces to the west and south are now too cool to support any decent low pressure systems or strong cold fronts.

I am now expecting the El Nino condition to steadily grow in strength as the year progresses, and with the Antarctic sea ice presently at record low levels, and due to start the most rapid growth cycle ever recorded, it now appears to me that Winter and early Spring will also be much dryer than you would like it to be. 

I have been watching and reading up on the Jet stream phenomena of the last two winters, for it was the central position and the strength of those jet streams that helped to make the last 2 winters, deliver above average rainfall to much of Eastern Australia. The central Indian Ocean was also very warm for most of the last year, together with rapidly rising Upper Atmosphere moisture levels. But both of these positive climate drivers are now in rapid decline.

The Upper Atmosphere Moisture Levels seem to rise in response to strong El Nino events and sun spot cycle peaks, with about a 12 month delay. Hence with both of these natural force reachingpeak strength during 2014-15 we observed a peak in upper Atmosphere Moisture mid 2016 similar to the levels not seen since 1998, when a similarly strong El Nino event was in decline.

Since mid 2016 a massive dive in upper Atmosphere Moisture has commenced, it will now be very interesting to see when it again starts to rise. I expect it will be a few months after the peak of this now developing El Nino anomaly. I interpret dryer times in the pipe line, for at least another two years, as things presently stand.

SEA ICE EXTREMES

These have been a focus of my studies for some time, and I believe understanding them is very important to anybody trying to track and predict the weather cycles.

The sea ice extremes have been rapidly building during the last 20 years. It is my understanding, strengthening ENSO cycles is one of the drivers for these massive fluctuations that have been occurring with peaks about 4.6 years apart. These extremes are so large now that they are becoming a dominating driver of our climate during recent years.

With this in mind, if these reliable repeating trends of the last 38 years are projected forward, we are now ready to observe the greatest growth of sea ice, in one season (March to October 2017 ) and new record highs about 20% higher than the records set during 2013/14/15.

During the 2015/16 period Antarctic sea ice crashed from a 38 year high to a 38 year low, losing twice as much sea ice in one down cycle than has ever been recorded before, this followed straight on after the most sea ice ever grown, in one up cycle. During the next five years the effects of the weakest solar cycle for 200 years will be dominating our climate; it is therefore most likely that global sea ice extremes will again break new records for the most ice grown in one up cycle. The overall effect will most likely cause the most rapid cooling of the global temperature, ever to be recorded.

This present Lowest Global Sea Ice cycle was enhanced by the most recent strong El Nino, that produced a record warm year globally, and our best growing season for many decades here in Australia. The next record breaking rise in the sea ice cycle will most likely help to produce the driest and coolest period for many decades, Maybe the coolest and driest run of seasons endured for two hundred years.
    
These Antarctic sea ice graphs highlight that the extremes are increasing especially the drop from the beginning of 2015 to early this year, which was associated with our best growing season in living memory.

The extreme high sea surface temperature of the Indian Ocean is one of the reasons why the Antarctic sea ice levels crashed downward during the last 18 months, this very warm SST helped to lift our autumn and winter rainfall of 2015/16, the next update of Antartic Sea Ice graph will be very informative as to how much rain we should expect later this year.

The main driving forces of the recent very moist jet streams are all in rapid decline presently.

The very cool sea’s presently around most of Australia’s north, west, and southern coastal regions are a big negative force for this year’s growing season, together with a warming eastern Pacific. This is not a good new SST map.

The jet stream position has been very stable and consistent since late Spring, ONLY after these jet streams have moved to the northern side of the high pressure ridge, can we expect a rise in the rainfall trends. 

The upper levels of the Pacific equatorial regions are now warming again, as is typical after each La Nina cycle has run its course.
I expect this warming trend will now continue for the next 2 years and help to bring on another drying trend in our climate cycle, as has been typical after most previous La Nina affected years. After 1983, after 1989, after 1992, after 1998, after 2011, after 2016?

For many years now I have been watching all the various climate driver, have their effect on our climate and weather, year by year, and it is now my understanding that this year, will be the lead in year, to a 3 to 5 year dry period, (maybe as long as ten years) as we have always endured at the weaker end of the lunar cycle, every 18.6 years and to a greater degree every 37.2 years. So you can count forward 18.6 years from 2002, or count forward 37.2 from 1982 which currently holds the record for the driest year on record, in the MDB region and parts of Eastern Australia, either way all the signs are pointing to many years ahead of us with less rain than you would wish for.

It is also my belief that this naturally dry part of the climate cycle is going to be made dryer this time by the presently developing solar minimum cycle, this reducing force has been helping to reduce average rainfall since the 1980’s. The solar experts are predicting further reductions in solar forcing of our climate for another 30 years. As we move from extreme high solar cycles (1940 to 1980) to extreme low solar cycles (2005 to 2045) which all fits in with the long term trends of Antarctic sea ice extremes.

So now that you have been supplied with the best info that I can find, it is up to you now to make the most out of this very challenging year ahead. frown
_________________________
Scott Hansen
http://predictweather.net/blog

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#1410622 - 03/03/2017 19:56 Re: Autumn Forecast & Climate Outlook (Eastern Australia) [Re: Scott Hansen]
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1065
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
Wow Scott incredibly interesting post and if accurate would certainly put egg on the face of the hysterical Left who points to the record low ice levels of Antarctica recently as proof of man-made climate change lol

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#1410695 - 04/03/2017 12:33 Re: Autumn Forecast & Climate Outlook (Eastern Australia) [Re: Scott Hansen]
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1065
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
Scott you might be able to answer this one - how can low sunspot cycles be directly linked to such events like 'the little ice age'' when the little ice age started many years before the Maunder Minimum event even begun?

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#1410710 - 04/03/2017 13:59 Re: Autumn Forecast & Climate Outlook (Eastern Australia) [Re: pete28]
Scott Hansen Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/11/2015
Posts: 76
Loc: Aspley, Queensland
Originally Posted By: pete28
Scott you might be able to answer this one - how can low sunspot cycles be directly linked to such events like 'the little ice age'' when the little ice age started many years before the Maunder Minimum event even begun?


Hi pete28,

Long episodes of low solar activity were seen during the Maunder Minimum between 1645 and 1715 and the ‘Dalton Minimum’ from 1790 to 1830.

Both periods coincided with colder-than-normal global temperatures earning the title from scientists of “Little Ice Age.”

During the period 1645–1715, in the middle of the Little Ice Age, there was a period of low solar activity known as the Maunder Minimum. The physical link between low sunspot activity and cooling temperatures has not been established, but the coincidence of the Maunder Minimum with the deepest trough of the Little Ice Age is suggestive of such a connection.

Note the similarity of Solar Cycle 24 to Solar Cycle 5 which is associated with the Dalton Minimum. It maybe a little too early to compare similarities with Solar Cycles 5 and 6, leading the planet into another mini ice age, like that during the Dalton Minimum. Or whether this minimum will combine with a lower Solar Cycle 25 which could lead to a 30-year cooling period producing another Little Ice Age, like that during the Maunder Minimum.
_________________________
Scott Hansen
http://predictweather.net/blog

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#1410713 - 04/03/2017 14:18 Re: Autumn Forecast & Climate Outlook (Eastern Australia) [Re: Scott Hansen]
Scott Hansen Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/11/2015
Posts: 76
Loc: Aspley, Queensland
Originally Posted By: Scott Hansen
Originally Posted By: pete28
Scott you might be able to answer this one - how can low sunspot cycles be directly linked to such events like 'the little ice age'' when the little ice age started many years before the Maunder Minimum event even begun?


Hi pete28,

Long episodes of low solar activity were seen during the Maunder Minimum between 1645 and 1715 and the ‘Dalton Minimum’ from 1790 to 1830.

Both periods coincided with colder-than-normal global temperatures earning the title from scientists of “Little Ice Age.”

During the period 1645–1715, in the middle of the Little Ice Age, there was a period of low solar activity known as the Maunder Minimum. The physical link between low sunspot activity and cooling temperatures has not been established, but the coincidence of the Maunder Minimum with the deepest trough of the Little Ice Age is suggestive of such a connection.

Note the similarity of Solar Cycle 24 to Solar Cycle 5 which is associated with the Dalton Minimum. It maybe a little too early to compare similarities with Solar Cycles 5 and 6, leading the planet into another mini ice age, like that during the Dalton Minimum. Or whether this minimum will combine with a lower Solar Cycle 25 which could lead to a 30-year cooling period producing another Little Ice Age, like that during the Maunder Minimum.


THREE DECADES OF SOLAR HIBERNATION TO BE ENDURED
For the last few years I have been researching Solar Minimum Cycles and their impacts on global climate. Almost everything I have read points to a very quiet hibernating sun going forward for the next three decades.
An increasing number of scientists have written books on this subject, including John Casey who wrote “Cold Sun” (Trafford Publishing, 2011) which I read recently.
Unlike most other books written about climate change, this book very clearly warns the reader of a long and dangerous period of global cooling bought on by the Bicentennial Solar Minimum Cycle, Casey and many others now predict a rapid return to the very cool climate of the early 1800’s. Casey’s fundamental message warns us of a future devastating worldwide economic collapse and famine.

FUTURE IMPACTS OF THE BICENTENNIAL SOLAR MINIMUM CYCLE
Considering the interplay with the lunar cycle, and all the other known natural climate drivers, I forecast that rapid global cooling will become the dominant climate change trend after early 2017, coinciding with the return to extremely low levels of solar radiation after the present very weak Sun Spot Cycle has faded away in 2017.
Casey’s research supports my own research in that this type of “deep solar hibernation” occurs on average once every 206 years and brings on secondary events such as, massive volcanic eruptions, large earth-quakes and resultant Little Ice Age periods. The Maunder Minimum (1645 -1715) and the Dalton Minimum (1790 -1830) are the last examples of the recurring solar hibernation periods.

SOLAR HIBERNATION ALSO TO BRING ON THE NEXT MEGA-DROUGHT
Finally, as a direct result of reducing solar radiation rates over the last three decades and the predicted continuation of this phenomenon for the next three decades, I forecast Australia’s Top End drought will continue on for many more years - slowly spreading south until the whole of Australia is impacted by the longest and driest mega-drought since the early 1800’s.
These future climate conditions will be similar to those that were prevalent around the time Captain Cook stood on this wide brown land and large trees were growing in the bottoms of our deepest lakes.
_________________________
Scott Hansen
http://predictweather.net/blog

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#1410714 - 04/03/2017 14:19 Re: Autumn Forecast & Climate Outlook (Eastern Australia) [Re: Scott Hansen]
Scott Hansen Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/11/2015
Posts: 76
Loc: Aspley, Queensland
AN INTENSE CLIMATE SWING IS ABOUT TO IMPACT

We are witnessing the combination of low solar radiation levels, rapid seasonal growth in Antarctic sea ice, anomalies of cool Sea Surface Temperatures (SST’s) to the north, west, and south of Australia, as well as a developing El Nino.
These factors will make it very unlikely for any major rain events to develop in SE Australia.

THE AUTUMN FORECAST

The first surges of the southern air tides will generally fail to stimulate rain during March. The best chance of an Autumn break is during early April and early May.
A developing El Nino cycle is forecast to impact the Winter-Spring period. Most of Qld will remain drought declared (presently 90%). Below-average rain for inland NSW, northern Vic and most of SA during Winter-Spring. Both southern and eastern coastal regions will receive very good Autumn rainfall totals, mainly due to the rain-enhancing forces of the southern air tides. Best rains close to the next four “new moon” periods.

RECORD SEA ICE FLUCTUATIONS … THE PREDICTABLE EFFECTS OF THE RECENT ENSO CYCLES

My research reveals that one of the strongest drivers of the recent positive rain events in Australia was the record loss of Antarctic sea ice. This melt commenced late in 2015 due to the warmth and moisture from the last
El Nino anomaly being injected into the upper atmosphere, which has now completed its transfer into the Polar Regions, suddenly causing the largest drop in global sea-ice for 40 years. Thus, Antarctic sea ice fell from the record highs of 2015, down to new record lows during recent months (a fall of 3.5 million sq km). Such extremes, so close together, are unprecedented. Such fluctuations are clearly increasing - absolutely regardless of IPCC climate models.
For 2017, I forecast that the “sea ice growth cycle” (March-Oct), will be setting another record high for “the most sea ice grown in one season.” This is in line with the combined influences of the 18.6 year lunar cycle and the Bicentennial Solar Minimum sunspot cycle.
This next surge in ice growth is predicted to increase through until Spring 2019 - easily smashing the records of 2015. Consequently a large drying force will be applied to our climate trends for the next 3 to 5 years.
_________________________
Scott Hansen
http://predictweather.net/blog

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#1410781 - 04/03/2017 20:28 Re: Autumn Forecast & Climate Outlook (Eastern Australia) [Re: Scott Hansen]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 222
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Solar Minimum might decrease global temperatures a bit, it certainly won't induce a rapid cooling of global temperatures. It might cause a La Niña off the back of this possible El Niño.

BOM forecasts below average rainfall for the Southern two thirds of Australia. Is this what you are forecasting?
_________________________
Long term forecaster
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au
Just ask, I'm more than happy to provide.

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#1410829 - 05/03/2017 06:12 Re: Autumn Forecast & Climate Outlook (Eastern Australia) [Re: Scott Hansen]
Scott Hansen Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/11/2015
Posts: 76
Loc: Aspley, Queensland
Originally Posted By: Scott Hansen
For many years now I have been watching all the various climate driver, have their effect on our climate and weather, year by year, and it is now my understanding that this year, will be the lead in year, to a 3 to 5 year dry period, (maybe as long as ten years) as we have always endured at the weaker end of the lunar cycle, every 18.6 years and to a greater degree every 37.2 years. So you can count forward 18.6 years from 2002, or count forward 37.2 from 1982 which currently holds the record for the driest year on record, in the MDB region and parts of Eastern Australia, either way all the signs are pointing to many years ahead of us with less rain than you would wish for,


Hi Group,

It is simple, just x 365.25 x 18.6 = 6793.65 or 365.25 x 37.2 = 13587.3 or 6793.65 x 2 + 13587.3
It is all tide in to the lunar declination cycle and the monsoon cycle, the best rains are produced in eastern Australia when the northeast air tides are reaching peak force in the most active monsoon period, hence the wettest years are most likely to be 37.2 years apart with the driest years following that wettest year approximately 9.3 year after. Hence you get fairly consistent extremes of climate in eastern Australia 2020 dry Jan 2011 wet 1982 dry 1973 wet 1945.1 dry 1935.8 wet .
You also develop smaller extremes 18.6 years after these main event as 2002 dry 1992 wet 1967 dry 1954/5/6 wet
Let me know how reliable you find these years to be close to the extremes of our climate cycles.
Generally a La Nina lift will occur each 4 to 5 years and small drought type years usually develop in between each La Nina influenced year.
As was 2013/14 dryer and then better rains early in 2015 but the spring was very dry then the 2016 La Nina year best season for many decades.

So based on this, can anybody tell me (the time frame) when the next season rains or dryness is expected ahead of time? It is worthy of study based on past yearly and monthly cycles! So, anybody can know in advance of what I have put to you above.

Regards, Scott H


Edited by Scott Hansen (05/03/2017 06:21)
_________________________
Scott Hansen
http://predictweather.net/blog

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#1410854 - 05/03/2017 09:20 Re: Autumn Forecast & Climate Outlook (Eastern Australia) [Re: Scott Hansen]
Scott Hansen Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/11/2015
Posts: 76
Loc: Aspley, Queensland
Originally Posted By: Scott Hansen

So based on this, can anybody tell me (the time frame) when the next season rains or dryness is expected ahead of time? It is worthy of study based on past yearly and monthly cycles! So, anybody can know in advance of what I have put to you above.


I have provided the past 3 years weather from the Esk Post Office which from 2014, 2015 & 2016 has had below average rainfall. I wanted to see what rainfall was going to be over the dams.

Below you will see by looking at the previous 9.3, 18.6 & 37.2 years we add up and find the estimate predicted rainfall for a given year , is it going to be below average, average, or above average.

2016 -

9.3 years = 1 Oct 2006 (+12 months):

21.0 + 114.8 + 136.0 + 32.3 + 28.7 + 75.2 + 14.2 + 25.1 + 97.0 + 0.0 + 97.6 + 39.6 = 681.5

18.6 years = 1 Jul 1997 (+12 months):

15.4 + 7.2 + 41.7 + 116.4 + 75.9 + 48.0 + 75.3 + 84.1 + 17.0 + 169.3 + 93.5 + 14.2 = 758

37.2 years = 1 Nov 1978 (+12 months):

87.0 + 73.0 + 187.0 + 66.0 + 79.0 + 30.0 + 7.4 + 105.4 + 35.0 + 3.0 + 9.2 + 26.8 = 708.8

681.5 + 758 + 708.8 = 2050.7
2148.3 / 3 = 716.1

Predicted Rainfall: 716.1mm (Below Avg)

Annual Total for 2016: 607.8mm (Below Avg)

Yearly Average: 923.9mm

-------------------------------------------

2015 -

9.3 years = 1 Oct 2005 (+12 months):

194.6 + 95.4 + 72.7 + 78.2 + 59.1 + 37.7 + 33.4 + 5.8 + 24.7 + 31.7 + 40.5 + 64.9 = 738.7

18.6 years = 1 Jul 1996 (+12 months):

34.8 + 32.0 + 65.6 + 66.8 + 82.4 + 139.1 + 39.5 + 90.2 + 20.6 + 49.7 + 60.0 + 36.6 = 717.3

37.2 years = 1 Nov 1977 (+12 months):

69.0 + 51.0 + 90.8 + 53.2 + 179.0 + 83.0 + 40.6 + 33.2 + 49.0 + 72.4 + 105.4 + 24.4 = 851.0

738.7 + 717.3 + 851.0 = 2307.0
2307.0 / 3 = 769.0

Predicted Rainfall: 769.0mm (Below Avg)

Annual Total for 2015 = 794.9 (Below Avg)

Yearly Average: 923.9mm

--------------------------------------------

2014 -

9.3 years = 1 Oct 2004 (+12 months):

26.1 + 93.0 + 128.2 + 126.2 + 7.8 + 32.0 + 26.5 + 33.8 + 78.4 + 2.2 + 6.0 + 24.5 = 584.7

18.6 years = 1 Jul 1995 (+12 months):

9.2 + 8.6 + 32.0 + 39.5 + 206.3 + 153.3 + 150.2 + 52.4 + 17.2 + 20.0 + 375.0 + 17.1 = 1080.8

37.2 years = 1 Nov 1976 (+12 months):

202.4 + 25.0 + 42.2 + 70.0 + 71.0 + 44.0 + 68.4 + 5.0 + 2.0 + 1.0 + 3.6 + 31.4 = 566.0

584.7 + 1080.8 + 566.0 = 2231.5
2231.5 / 3 = 743.8

Predicted Rainfall: 743.8mm (Below Avg)

Annual Total for 2015 = 609.0 (Below Avg)

Yearly Average: 923.9mm

Note: You can then find & work out from here how much rain you can receive a month and if it will be below or above average.
So, as i have always believed, you can predict the weather by looking at past weather cycles. What will be the weather like each season etc.
And, looking at the study above each year rainfall is somewhat similar to the 37.2 declination cycle which has the best results.

So you can start working out the rest of 2017 if you want to know what the yearly or monthly total amount your location will receive. Or 2018 and any year ahead. I may just work this out in my future post for you, so you can see this system works.

Regards, Scott H


Edited by Scott Hansen (05/03/2017 09:30)
_________________________
Scott Hansen
http://predictweather.net/blog

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#1410910 - 05/03/2017 13:12 Re: Autumn Forecast & Climate Outlook (Eastern Australia) [Re: Scott Hansen]
sparraz Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 19/03/2014
Posts: 29
Originally Posted By: Scott Hansen
AN INTENSE CLIMATE SWING IS ABOUT TO IMPACT

We are witnessing the combination of low solar radiation levels, rapid seasonal growth in Antarctic sea ice, anomalies of cool Sea Surface Temperatures (SST’s) to the north, west, and south of Australia, as well as a developing El Nino.
These factors will make it very unlikely for any major rain events to develop in SE Australia.

THE AUTUMN FORECAST

The first surges of the southern air tides will generally fail to stimulate rain during March. The best chance of an Autumn break is during early April and early May.
A developing El Nino cycle is forecast to impact the Winter-Spring period. Most of Qld will remain drought declared (presently 90%). Below-average rain for inland NSW, northern Vic and most of SA during Winter-Spring. Both southern and eastern coastal regions will receive very good Autumn rainfall totals, mainly due to the rain-enhancing forces of the southern air tides. Best rains close to the next four “new moon” periods.

RECORD SEA ICE FLUCTUATIONS … THE PREDICTABLE EFFECTS OF THE RECENT ENSO CYCLES

My research reveals that one of the strongest drivers of the recent positive rain events in Australia was the record loss of Antarctic sea ice. This melt commenced late in 2015 due to the warmth and moisture from the last
El Nino anomaly being injected into the upper atmosphere, which has now completed its transfer into the Polar Regions, suddenly causing the largest drop in global sea-ice for 40 years. Thus, Antarctic sea ice fell from the record highs of 2015, down to new record lows during recent months (a fall of 3.5 million sq km). Such extremes, so close together, are unprecedented. Such fluctuations are clearly increasing - absolutely regardless of IPCC climate models.
For 2017, I forecast that the “sea ice growth cycle” (March-Oct), will be setting another record high for “the most sea ice grown in one season.” This is in line with the combined influences of the 18.6 year lunar cycle and the Bicentennial Solar Minimum sunspot cycle.
This next surge in ice growth is predicted to increase through until Spring 2019 - easily smashing the records of 2015. Consequently a large drying force will be applied to our climate trends for the next 3 to 5 years.


Was wondering if you could explain why this post reads word for word like a recent Autumn forecast put out by Kevin Long at The Longview. Are you affiliated with him and his research?
We have been taking note of his forecasts for a little over a year now as Ian Holton retired.
Just interested in your obvious connections with him.

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#1411029 - 05/03/2017 23:08 Re: Autumn Forecast & Climate Outlook (Eastern Australia) [Re: Scott Hansen]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17432
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
This has been brought to our attention earlier today, and so Scott has been banned from the forums. Hopefully Keith might follow up in regards to Scott's website and his blatant plagarism.

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#1411033 - 05/03/2017 23:38 Re: Autumn Forecast & Climate Outlook (Eastern Australia) [Re: Scott Hansen]
sparraz Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 19/03/2014
Posts: 29
Good to hear.

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