I had been forecasting a very good chance of an early Autumn break commencing in the first week of Autumn, and that an above average Autumn was most likely to evolve.
Well now with the aid of the latest SST maps and the BOM’s latest info, together with the most up to date understanding of the present climate drivers, I now forecast there is almost no chance of an early autumn break this year.
All was looking good for Autumn rain, up until early February, when a large upwelling of cool SST commenced along the NT and WA Coastal regions, This cool SST is one of the first negative rain forces that often precedes the development of El Nino conditions later in the year. These cooler sea surface conditions very effectively diminished the tropical cyclones in late January and to this day no pacific cyclones have made it to the Qld coast line this season, leaving 90% of Qld still drought declared, and very dry in northern NSW.
On the brighter side of things the lunar and planetary forces are now building in strength, and will reach peak strength for this year, close to the New moon period in early May. So this early and late May May period, now represents the most likely time for the heaviest rain events to sweep across the MDB regions and eastern Australia, for this year.
But given the present overall conditions, I now have to inform you all, that my forecast is now for, only about 50 to 60% of average Autumn rainfall with most of it falling in early and late May, if it falls at all!! Keep in mind; it is the southern air tides pushing in under the warmer more humid northern air streams, that will be the driving forces for most Autumn rain events . The sea surfaces to the west and south are now too cool to support any decent low pressure systems or strong cold fronts.
I am now expecting the El Nino condition to steadily grow in strength as the year progresses, and with the Antarctic sea ice presently at record low levels, and due to start the most rapid growth cycle ever recorded, it now appears to me that Winter and early Spring will also be much dryer than you would like it to be.
I have been watching and reading up on the Jet stream phenomena of the last two winters, for it was the central position and the strength of those jet streams that helped to make the last 2 winters, deliver above average rainfall to much of Eastern Australia. The central Indian Ocean was also very warm for most of the last year, together with rapidly rising Upper Atmosphere moisture levels. But both of these positive climate drivers are now in rapid decline.
The Upper Atmosphere Moisture Levels seem to rise in response to strong El Nino events and sun spot cycle peaks, with about a 12 month delay. Hence with both of these natural force reachingpeak strength during 2014-15 we observed a peak in upper Atmosphere Moisture mid 2016 similar to the levels not seen since 1998, when a similarly strong El Nino event was in decline.
Since mid 2016 a massive dive in upper Atmosphere Moisture has commenced, it will now be very interesting to see when it again starts to rise. I expect it will be a few months after the peak of this now developing El Nino anomaly. I interpret dryer times in the pipe line, for at least another two years, as things presently stand.
SEA ICE EXTREMES
These have been a focus of my studies for some time, and I believe understanding them is very important to anybody trying to track and predict the weather cycles.
The sea ice extremes have been rapidly building during the last 20 years. It is my understanding, strengthening ENSO cycles is one of the drivers for these massive fluctuations that have been occurring with peaks about 4.6 years apart. These extremes are so large now that they are becoming a dominating driver of our climate during recent years.
With this in mind, if these reliable repeating trends of the last 38 years are projected forward, we are now ready to observe the greatest growth of sea ice, in one season (March to October 2017 ) and new record highs about 20% higher than the records set during 2013/14/15.
During the 2015/16 period Antarctic sea ice crashed from a 38 year high to a 38 year low, losing twice as much sea ice in one down cycle than has ever been recorded before, this followed straight on after the most sea ice ever grown, in one up cycle. During the next five years the effects of the weakest solar cycle for 200 years will be dominating our climate; it is therefore most likely that global sea ice extremes will again break new records for the most ice grown in one up cycle. The overall effect will most likely cause the most rapid cooling of the global temperature, ever to be recorded.
This present Lowest Global Sea Ice cycle was enhanced by the most recent strong El Nino, that produced a record warm year globally, and our best growing season for many decades here in Australia. The next record breaking rise in the sea ice cycle will most likely help to produce the driest and coolest period for many decades, Maybe the coolest and driest run of seasons endured for two hundred years.
These Antarctic sea ice graphs highlight that the extremes are increasing especially the drop from the beginning of 2015 to early this year, which was associated with our best growing season in living memory.
The extreme high sea surface temperature of the Indian Ocean is one of the reasons why the Antarctic sea ice levels crashed downward during the last 18 months, this very warm SST helped to lift our autumn and winter rainfall of 2015/16, the next update of Antartic Sea Ice graph will be very informative as to how much rain we should expect later this year.
The main driving forces of the recent very moist jet streams are all in rapid decline presently.
The very cool sea’s presently around most of Australia’s north, west, and southern coastal regions are a big negative force for this year’s growing season, together with a warming eastern Pacific. This is not a good new SST map.
The jet stream position has been very stable and consistent since late Spring, ONLY after these jet streams have moved to the northern side of the high pressure ridge, can we expect a rise in the rainfall trends.
The upper levels of the Pacific equatorial regions are now warming again, as is typical after each La Nina cycle has run its course.
I expect this warming trend will now continue for the next 2 years and help to bring on another drying trend in our climate cycle, as has been typical after most previous La Nina affected years. After 1983, after 1989, after 1992, after 1998, after 2011, after 2016? For many years now I have been watching all the various climate driver, have their effect on our climate and weather, year by year, and it is now my understanding that this year, will be the lead in year, to a 3 to 5 year dry period, (maybe as long as ten years) as we have always endured at the weaker end of the lunar cycle, every 18.6 years and to a greater degree every 37.2 years. So you can count forward 18.6 years from 2002, or count forward 37.2 from 1982 which currently holds the record for the driest year on record, in the MDB region and parts of Eastern Australia, either way all the signs are pointing to many years ahead of us with less rain than you would wish for.
It is also my belief that this naturally dry part of the climate cycle is going to be made dryer this time by the presently developing solar minimum cycle, this reducing force has been helping to reduce average rainfall since the 1980’s. The solar experts are predicting further reductions in solar forcing of our climate for another 30 years. As we move from extreme high solar cycles (1940 to 1980) to extreme low solar cycles (2005 to 2045) which all fits in with the long term trends of Antarctic sea ice extremes.
So now that you have been supplied with the best info that I can find, it is up to you now to make the most out of this very challenging year ahead.