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#1410899 - 05/03/2017 12:39 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
Finally made it


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#1410901 - 05/03/2017 12:41 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4840
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Yay. Now lets all cross our fingers that it intensifies to the point where it can be seen as a real cyclone. I won't even be jealous that it won't belong to QLD.

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#1410904 - 05/03/2017 12:46 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
An excerpt from the technical bulletin 1957 UTC 04/03/2017

IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1957 UTC 04/03/2017
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 20U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 11.0S
Longitude: 131.0E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [218 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 997 hPa

REMARKS:
The system centre is currently difficult to locate. Position based largely on surface observations over the Tiwi Islands and surrounding area, satellite imagery and persistance in past motion. Satellite imagery during the last 3-6 hours has shown renewed bursts of convection close to the low level circulation centre [LLCC], as well as some very strong convection that originated over the Northern Territory during yesterday afternoon and moved across the Timor Sea, however this failed to wrap into the system.

Dvorak intensity at 12Z is based on MET=2.5 using a D trend [no adjustment to MET made] as DT was not clear cut - a weak curved band of 0.35 wrap yeilded DT 2.0. System intensity is set at 30 knots. ADT CI=2.8.

Recent motion has been to the SSW at 6-8 knots. Forecast motion is for the low to continue to the SW during the next few days under the steering influence of a mid level ridge to the northeast and another to the southwest. NWP is in fair agreement with the forecast track, with the system crossing the north Kimberley coast Monday evening.

The low is located south of the upper ridge, which is providing excellent outflow from the NW to SW to S quadrants. CIMSS indicates the low is still under the influence of moderate to high 15-25 knots E wind shear. However during the last 24 hours the low has developed at the standard rate, indicating the outflow is offsetting any negative effects from the shear. The low is forecast to reach TC intensity in the next 6-12 hours, assuming the disruptive influence of passing across the Tiwi Islands does not limit development.

As the low moves SW and fully under the upper ridge, the system is forecast to develop at the standard rate, reaching category 2 intensity at andfall over the Kimberley. A faster intensification rate cannot be ruled out.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
[b][/b]

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#1410905 - 05/03/2017 12:48 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
gecko Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2007
Posts: 408
Loc: Coconut Grove, Darwin, NT.
Intense drizzle here now and a strong breeze....


Edited by gecko (05/03/2017 12:49)

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#1410909 - 05/03/2017 13:07 Re: Tropical Low (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
Looks like the authorities are erring on the side of caution. Darwin buses are ceasing operations from midday. Ferries have ceased operations. Three cyclone shelters are open but only for homeless people and itinerants. And of course they're recommending people cancel any boating activities they might have planned. Airport is still open.

The main rain seems to be moving away from Darwin towards the south west. Point Fawcett ended up with 384 mm up to 9:00AM today. Considering it didn't start until 4:00PM that makes it a 17 hour period.

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#1410912 - 05/03/2017 13:17 Re: Tropical Low (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
gecko Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2007
Posts: 408
Loc: Coconut Grove, Darwin, NT.
Originally Posted By: tropicbreeze

The main rain seems to be moving away from Darwin towards the south west.

Yeah,could be a fairly minor rainfall event for us.

Still hoping forsome nice squall lines this afternoon and evening, but not holding my breath.

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#1410929 - 05/03/2017 14:26 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3104
Loc: Broome

Moving nicely to the South West and some good circulation happening on latest run.

All we need now is for it to keep feeding nicely and stay out of the high sheer and its game on.


_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1410930 - 05/03/2017 14:30 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3104
Loc: Broome

TC Blanche score one for the NT.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Blanche at 9:30 am ACST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 11.9 degrees South, 130.3 degrees East , 85 kilometres northwest of Darwin and 275 kilometres north northeast of Wadeye .
Movement: southwest at 12 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Blanch has formed just south of the Tiwi Islands. The system is expected to continue tracking to the southwest and intensify further, crossing the north Kimberley coast later on Monday as a Category 2 system.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1410938 - 05/03/2017 15:40 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3104
Loc: Broome

Steering taken it to the south west atm.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Blanche at 12:30 pm ACST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 12.0 degrees South, 130.0 degrees East , 105 kilometres west northwest of Darwin and 255 kilometres north northeast of Wadeye .
Movement: southwest at 14 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Blanch is south of the Tiwi Islands and is expected to continue tracking to the southwest, parallel to the coast, and intensify further, crossing the north Kimberley coast later on Monday as a Category 2 system
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1410939 - 05/03/2017 15:41 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 42
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Darwin 200 k radar starting to show a bit more structure.

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#1410957 - 05/03/2017 16:55 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
gecko Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2007
Posts: 408
Loc: Coconut Grove, Darwin, NT.
On radar the eye is just 140km from Darwin, and just a nice breeze (max gust so far - 46km/h) - such a small TC. We'd be getting a hammering if it were a decent sized system.

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#1410959 - 05/03/2017 17:08 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8279
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Blanche aye? Made in France? laugh

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#1410975 - 05/03/2017 18:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3104
Loc: Broome



Going a bit more to WSW now.

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1411010 - 05/03/2017 20:49 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
pabloako Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/03/2007
Posts: 1593
Loc: Ocean View, Queensland
Here are a couple of timelapse of satellite images, which show the formation quite well. They update every 30 minutes.

http://www.oceanviewweather.com.au/Satellite/HimawariSatellite-Pilbara.asp

http://www.oceanviewweather.com.au/Satellite/HimawariSatellite-GOC.asp
_________________________
Ocean View, QLD. (Alt. 398m)

GFS + Long Range - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/GFS
Satellite Images - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/Satellite

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#1411031 - 05/03/2017 23:23 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Blanched Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/12/2009
Posts: 138
Loc: Karratha, WA
Well they named a Cyclone after me lol. Hopefully we get something from it in Karratha smile

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#1411048 - 06/03/2017 08:29 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4840
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
From the look of it on radar I am amazed it is still a cyclone.
mmm.Maybe not that bad but certainly not impressive


Edited by Brett Guy (06/03/2017 08:33)

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#1411076 - 06/03/2017 13:49 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Max744 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/11/2002
Posts: 1515
Loc: Kingsgrove NSW. Cooks Gap NS...
Blanche appears to be making landfall close to Revely Island, near the mouth of the Berkely River at the moment.


Edited by Max744 (06/03/2017 13:58)

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#1411082 - 06/03/2017 15:08 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3104
Loc: Broome

Yes not a defined eye on this one but still intensifying as it works its way towards the coast .Has a good circulation centre just probably won't have time to intensify enough before making landfall.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1411083 - 06/03/2017 15:21 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3104
Loc: Broome

See a good bit of circulation happening here as she gets close to making landfall.

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1411084 - 06/03/2017 15:29 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3104
Loc: Broome

Latest track map shows it crossing atm.

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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