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#1410600 - 03/03/2017 18:46 Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24686
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 4:45 pm ACST on Friday 03 March 2017
Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Watch issued for Croker Island to Cape Fourcroy

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.

Watch Zone
Croker Island to Cape Fourcroy.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Low at 3:30 pm ACST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 30 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 85 kilometres of 7.9 degrees South 132.8 degrees East, estimated to be 360 kilometres north of Croker Island and 545 kilometres north northeast of Darwin.

Movement: west at 11 kilometres per hour.

A Tropical Low is slowly developing in the Arafura Sea. The low is expected to move towards the south or southwest during the weekend and may form into a tropical cyclone to the north of the Tiwi Islands on Sunday.

Hazards:
GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop over coastal and island communities between Croker Island on Cobourg Peninsula and Cape Fourcroy on the Tiwi Islands during Sunday.

Recommended Action:
NTES advises communities under Watch:

- Finalise your emergency kit preparations;

- Clear your premises of potential wind borne missiles;

- Commence home shelter preparations, or decide NOW where you will shelter;

- If your present accommodation is not to code, or you re unsure, you should arrange to shelter with friends, family or in a public shelter or strong building;

- Do not move to shelter until advised by local authorities.

Further advice on cyclone emergencies is available at www.securent.nt.gov.au

Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm ACST Friday 03 March.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
February 2017 total - 67.2mm (283mm)
March 2017 total - 172.2mm (197mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 503.0mm (1107mm)

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#1410602 - 03/03/2017 18:53 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6335
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
....and at the exact opposite end of Aus another "cyclone" might be spawned off NSW tomorrow morning?

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#1410619 - 03/03/2017 19:39 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Petros]
JimmyGray Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/08/2008
Posts: 1569
Loc: Palmerston NT
Originally Posted By: Petros
....and at the exact opposite end of Aus another "cyclone" might be spawned off NSW tomorrow morning?

And probably looks better on sat map TBH

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#1410639 - 03/03/2017 22:20 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Thijs Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 18/12/2008
Posts: 13
Loc: Darwin
Some good storm activity in Darwin at the moment!


Balcony Chase by Thijs Bors, on Flickr
_________________________

Cheers, Thijs

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#1410645 - 03/03/2017 22:53 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Willoughby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/05/2003
Posts: 986
Loc: Darwin NT
Haha fancy seeing you on WZ Thijs!! Great shot one shot!!!

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#1410649 - 03/03/2017 23:09 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2347
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Nice one Thijs!
_________________________
US Storm Chasing 2016

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#1410655 - 04/03/2017 01:07 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 42
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Yeah loveing the electrical storms after 2 days of oppressive humidity, the calm before the storm?Locally there is a big difference between ec and gfs. Not sure which I prefer as I work for local govt in parks and I am not looking forward to spending 3 months on a chainsaw and feeding a woodchiper.But I am a severe weather sicko like the rest of us.

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#1410656 - 04/03/2017 01:11 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
JimmyGray Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/08/2008
Posts: 1569
Loc: Palmerston NT
Latest advice ... has become slow moving

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued at 10:43 pm ACST on Friday 03 March 2017
Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Watch issued for Croker Island to Cape Fourcroy
Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.
Watch Zone
Croker Island to Cape Fourcroy.
Cancelled Zone
None.
Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 pm ACST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 35 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 85 kilometres of 8.1 degrees South 132.6 degrees East, estimated to be 340 kilometres north of Croker Island and 515 kilometres north northeast of Darwin.
Movement: slow moving.

A Tropical Low is slowly developing in the Arafura Sea. The low is expected to move towards the south or southwest during the weekend and may form into a tropical cyclone near the Tiwi Islands on Sunday.
Hazards:
GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop over coastal and island communities between Croker Island, near the Cobourg Peninsula, and Cape Fourcroy on the Tiwi Islands during Sunday.

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#1410696 - 04/03/2017 12:43 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
JimmyGray Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/08/2008
Posts: 1569
Loc: Palmerston NT
Calm before the storm here... very souply outside tho.
Latest advice is we now have a warning and Darwin is now under a watch

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued at 11:07 am ACST on Saturday 04 March 2017
Headline:
Cyclone Warrning issued for the Tiwi Islands, Watch extended to WA border, includes Darwin.
Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Croker Island to Cape Fourcroy.
Watch Zone
Point Stuart to WA/NT Border, including Darwin and Wadeye.
Cancelled Zone
None.
Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 am ACST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 45 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 9.5 degrees South 132.6 degrees East, estimated to be 300 kilometres northeast of Milikapiti and 375 kilometres north northeast of Darwin.
Movement: south at 12 kilometres per hour.

A tropical low is developing in the Arafura Sea and may form into a tropical cyclone near the Tiwi Islands early on Sunday. The system is expected to track in a southwesterly direction and move closer to Darwin during Sunday. The cyclone may intensify further during Sunday night or Monday as it move towards the south or southwest across the Timor Sea. The tropical cyclone may cross the north Kimberley coast later on Monday.
Hazards:
GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may develop between Croker Island and Cape Fourcroy early on Sunday.

GALES may extend south between Point Stuart and the NT/WA border, including Darwin and Wadeye later on Sunday and Monday.

A STORM TIDE between Croker Island and Cape Fourcroy may occur as the cyclone centre crosses the coast on Sunday morning. Tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Point Stuart and the NT/WA border on Sunday and Monday. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

HEAVY RAIN and SQUALLS are likely to develop over the Tiwi and Croker Islands and Cobourg Peninsula later today, extending to the northwest Top End during

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#1410698 - 04/03/2017 13:00 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ronfishes Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2013
Posts: 3137
Loc: Gordonvale
Latest map:

_________________________
MTD: 124.6mm
2016-2017 wet season: 1316.4mm
YTD: 1199.8mm

Opinion is not fact.

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#1410699 - 04/03/2017 13:01 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 42
Loc: Jingili Darwin
EC showing disorganised structure before hitting jb gulf,GFS still to the west of Darwin,but ramping up in the Timor sea.I'm actually going with boms track map but thinking it will go a bit more south before turning sw.Gut feeling is straight over Darwin as a high cat 1.

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#1410748 - 04/03/2017 18:13 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
gecko Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2007
Posts: 408
Loc: Coconut Grove, Darwin, NT.
Latest map has it jigging to the west and now missing Darwin.......but they are pretty unpredictble in the Arafura sea, so best to be prepared. Always a chance that we'll find it on our doorstep at 6am tomorrow.

Was getting my gas bottle filled up this arvo, and they said there'd been no rush today. Hope everyone is ready just in case.


Edited by gecko (04/03/2017 18:14)

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#1410753 - 04/03/2017 18:48 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 42
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Yeah never trust your gut when youv'e drunk stout and eaten oysters the night before. But you're right gecko ,best to be prepared.

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#1410763 - 04/03/2017 19:30 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 125
Loc: Noonamah
Looks like Vertical Wind Shear is around 20 - 25 kts. Coming closer to Darwin it's more likely to increase, further out a bit but not much less. Of course closer to Darwin there'll be more land interaction. I think the odds are not favouring it but it's going to be short lived anyway so nothing much either way.

My generator is all fueled up and ready to go. Gas bottle's not topped up but enough for any cooking needed.

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#1410786 - 04/03/2017 20:51 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: darwindix]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1727
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: darwindix
Yeah never trust your gut when youv'e drunk stout and eaten oysters the night before. But you're right gecko ,best to be prepared.


Sorry to see that things have been hard for you lately Dwndix, hopefully this one just provides some nice weather and maybe gives Rapid Creek a good flushing and the old Marrara keeps the drinks cold.

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#1410801 - 04/03/2017 21:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
El Jefe Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2003
Posts: 940
Loc: Parap, NT
Latest Advice:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDD20150.html
Track map out a bit later frown
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDD65011.shtml

Coordinates say the low has moved due south, but the advice is still saying SW. Fun times in D town! smile

Next incoming line looks like a ripper!!!! grin Woot Woot!!


Edited by El Jefe (04/03/2017 22:05)

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#1410819 - 05/03/2017 00:31 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
El Jefe Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2003
Posts: 940
Loc: Parap, NT
2300 ACST Update:

IDD20150
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8

Issued at 10:48 pm ACST [9:18 pm AWST] on Saturday 04 March 2017

Headline:

Cyclone Warning covers coastal areas of northwest Top End, including Darwin and Tiwi Islands.

Areas Affected:

Warning Zone

Daly River Mouth to Point Stuart and Croker Island to Cape Fourcroy.

Watch Zone

Kuri Bay to Daly River Mouth

Cancelled Zone
None.
Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 pm ACST [8:00 pm AWST]:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 45 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 85 kilometres of 10.4 degrees South 131.4 degrees East, estimated to be 140 kilometres northeast of Milikapiti and 230 kilometres north northeast of Darwin.
Movement: southwest at 12 kilometres per hour.
A tropical low in the Timor Sea is slowly intensifying and may form into a tropical cyclone near the Tiwi Islands early on Sunday. The system is expected to continue tracking to the southwest and may pass close to Darwin during Sunday. The cyclone may intensify further during Sunday night or Monday before crossing the north Kimberley coast later on Monday as a Category 2 system.
Hazards:
GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may develop between Croker Island and Cape Fourcroy early on Sunday, and extend south between Point Stuart and Daly River Mouth, including Darwin, during Sunday.
GALES may extend further south between Daly River Mouth and the NT/WA border, including Wadeye later on Sunday and Monday. GALES may extend west between NT/WA border to Kuri Bay during Monday.
A STORM TIDE between Croker Island and Cape Fourcroy may occur as the cyclone centre crosses the coast on Sunday morning. Tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.
Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Point Stuart in the NT and Kuri Bay in WA on Sunday and Monday. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.
HEAVY RAIN and SQUALLS are likely to develop over the Tiwi and Croker Islands and Cobourg Peninsula tonight, extending to the western Top End during Sunday and to the Kimberley region on Sunday night or Monday.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS are possible in squally showers and storms across the northwest Top End during the next day or two even if the low does not reach cyclone intensity.
Recommended Action:
NTES advises residents from Cape Fourcroy to Croker Island and Point Stuart to Daly River Mouth, including Darwin
- Your emergency kit should now be complete and ready;
- Finalise home shelter preparations, or know now where you will shelter;
- Do not move to shelter until advised by local authorities
Communities under Watch:
- Finalise your emergency kit preparations;
- Clear your premises of potential wind borne missiles;
- Commence home shelter preparations, or decide NOW where you will shelter;
- If your present accommodation is not to code, or you re unsure, you should arrange to shelter with friends, family or in a public shelter or strong building;
- Do not move to shelter until advised by local authorities.
DFES advises residents in the Watch zone between WA/NT border to Kuri Bay in WA:
-You should prepare your home inside and out
-Keep up to date with the development of the cyclone
Further advice on cyclone emergencies is available at www.securent.nt.gov.au
Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am ACST Sunday 05 March [12:30 am AWST Sunday 05 March].


Edited by El Jefe (05/03/2017 00:33)

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#1410846 - 05/03/2017 08:54 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 125
Loc: Noonamah
It's looking a bit disorganised but Vertical Wind Shear seems to be easing. Also looks like it's tracking more directly over Darwin.

Point Fawcett has had 343.4mm since 9:00AM yesterday (22 hours). Really stands out amongst all the other weather station recordings. Around here Noonamah AWS 29.6mm and my gauge 25.2mm.

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#1410856 - 05/03/2017 09:35 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 42
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Darwin radar 200 k looking interesting.

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#1410858 - 05/03/2017 09:40 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ronfishes Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2013
Posts: 3137
Loc: Gordonvale
Is this the first decent low to be viewed on the doppler?
_________________________
MTD: 124.6mm
2016-2017 wet season: 1316.4mm
YTD: 1199.8mm

Opinion is not fact.

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#1410899 - 05/03/2017 12:39 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 125
Loc: Noonamah
Finally made it


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#1410901 - 05/03/2017 12:41 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4835
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Yay. Now lets all cross our fingers that it intensifies to the point where it can be seen as a real cyclone. I won't even be jealous that it won't belong to QLD.

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#1410904 - 05/03/2017 12:46 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 125
Loc: Noonamah
An excerpt from the technical bulletin 1957 UTC 04/03/2017

IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1957 UTC 04/03/2017
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 20U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 11.0S
Longitude: 131.0E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [218 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 997 hPa

REMARKS:
The system centre is currently difficult to locate. Position based largely on surface observations over the Tiwi Islands and surrounding area, satellite imagery and persistance in past motion. Satellite imagery during the last 3-6 hours has shown renewed bursts of convection close to the low level circulation centre [LLCC], as well as some very strong convection that originated over the Northern Territory during yesterday afternoon and moved across the Timor Sea, however this failed to wrap into the system.

Dvorak intensity at 12Z is based on MET=2.5 using a D trend [no adjustment to MET made] as DT was not clear cut - a weak curved band of 0.35 wrap yeilded DT 2.0. System intensity is set at 30 knots. ADT CI=2.8.

Recent motion has been to the SSW at 6-8 knots. Forecast motion is for the low to continue to the SW during the next few days under the steering influence of a mid level ridge to the northeast and another to the southwest. NWP is in fair agreement with the forecast track, with the system crossing the north Kimberley coast Monday evening.

The low is located south of the upper ridge, which is providing excellent outflow from the NW to SW to S quadrants. CIMSS indicates the low is still under the influence of moderate to high 15-25 knots E wind shear. However during the last 24 hours the low has developed at the standard rate, indicating the outflow is offsetting any negative effects from the shear. The low is forecast to reach TC intensity in the next 6-12 hours, assuming the disruptive influence of passing across the Tiwi Islands does not limit development.

As the low moves SW and fully under the upper ridge, the system is forecast to develop at the standard rate, reaching category 2 intensity at andfall over the Kimberley. A faster intensification rate cannot be ruled out.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
[b][/b]

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#1410905 - 05/03/2017 12:48 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
gecko Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2007
Posts: 408
Loc: Coconut Grove, Darwin, NT.
Intense drizzle here now and a strong breeze....


Edited by gecko (05/03/2017 12:49)

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#1410909 - 05/03/2017 13:07 Re: Tropical Low (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 125
Loc: Noonamah
Looks like the authorities are erring on the side of caution. Darwin buses are ceasing operations from midday. Ferries have ceased operations. Three cyclone shelters are open but only for homeless people and itinerants. And of course they're recommending people cancel any boating activities they might have planned. Airport is still open.

The main rain seems to be moving away from Darwin towards the south west. Point Fawcett ended up with 384 mm up to 9:00AM today. Considering it didn't start until 4:00PM that makes it a 17 hour period.

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#1410912 - 05/03/2017 13:17 Re: Tropical Low (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
gecko Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2007
Posts: 408
Loc: Coconut Grove, Darwin, NT.
Originally Posted By: tropicbreeze

The main rain seems to be moving away from Darwin towards the south west.

Yeah,could be a fairly minor rainfall event for us.

Still hoping forsome nice squall lines this afternoon and evening, but not holding my breath.

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#1410929 - 05/03/2017 14:26 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3059
Loc: Broome

Moving nicely to the South West and some good circulation happening on latest run.

All we need now is for it to keep feeding nicely and stay out of the high sheer and its game on.


_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1410930 - 05/03/2017 14:30 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3059
Loc: Broome

TC Blanche score one for the NT.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Blanche at 9:30 am ACST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 11.9 degrees South, 130.3 degrees East , 85 kilometres northwest of Darwin and 275 kilometres north northeast of Wadeye .
Movement: southwest at 12 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Blanch has formed just south of the Tiwi Islands. The system is expected to continue tracking to the southwest and intensify further, crossing the north Kimberley coast later on Monday as a Category 2 system.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1410938 - 05/03/2017 15:40 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3059
Loc: Broome

Steering taken it to the south west atm.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Blanche at 12:30 pm ACST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 12.0 degrees South, 130.0 degrees East , 105 kilometres west northwest of Darwin and 255 kilometres north northeast of Wadeye .
Movement: southwest at 14 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Blanch is south of the Tiwi Islands and is expected to continue tracking to the southwest, parallel to the coast, and intensify further, crossing the north Kimberley coast later on Monday as a Category 2 system
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1410939 - 05/03/2017 15:41 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 42
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Darwin 200 k radar starting to show a bit more structure.

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#1410957 - 05/03/2017 16:55 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
gecko Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2007
Posts: 408
Loc: Coconut Grove, Darwin, NT.
On radar the eye is just 140km from Darwin, and just a nice breeze (max gust so far - 46km/h) - such a small TC. We'd be getting a hammering if it were a decent sized system.

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#1410959 - 05/03/2017 17:08 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8279
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Blanche aye? Made in France? laugh

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#1410975 - 05/03/2017 18:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3059
Loc: Broome



Going a bit more to WSW now.

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1411010 - 05/03/2017 20:49 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
pabloako Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/03/2007
Posts: 1592
Loc: Ocean View, Queensland
Here are a couple of timelapse of satellite images, which show the formation quite well. They update every 30 minutes.

http://www.oceanviewweather.com.au/Satellite/HimawariSatellite-Pilbara.asp

http://www.oceanviewweather.com.au/Satellite/HimawariSatellite-GOC.asp
_________________________
Ocean View, QLD. (Alt. 398m)

GFS + Long Range - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/GFS
Satellite Images - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/Satellite

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#1411031 - 05/03/2017 23:23 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Blanched Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/12/2009
Posts: 138
Loc: Karratha, WA
Well they named a Cyclone after me lol. Hopefully we get something from it in Karratha smile

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#1411048 - 06/03/2017 08:29 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4835
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
From the look of it on radar I am amazed it is still a cyclone.
mmm.Maybe not that bad but certainly not impressive


Edited by Brett Guy (06/03/2017 08:33)

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#1411076 - 06/03/2017 13:49 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Max744 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/11/2002
Posts: 1512
Loc: Kingsgrove NSW. Cooks Gap NS...
Blanche appears to be making landfall close to Revely Island, near the mouth of the Berkely River at the moment.


Edited by Max744 (06/03/2017 13:58)

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#1411082 - 06/03/2017 15:08 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3059
Loc: Broome

Yes not a defined eye on this one but still intensifying as it works its way towards the coast .Has a good circulation centre just probably won't have time to intensify enough before making landfall.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1411083 - 06/03/2017 15:21 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3059
Loc: Broome

See a good bit of circulation happening here as she gets close to making landfall.

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1411084 - 06/03/2017 15:29 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3059
Loc: Broome

Latest track map shows it crossing atm.

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1411104 - 06/03/2017 18:55 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 125
Loc: Noonamah
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0727 UTC 06/03/2017
Name: Tropical Cyclone Blanche
Identifier: 20U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 14.9S
Longitude: 127.4E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [216 deg]
Speed of Movement: 10 knots [19 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: N/A
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 06/1200: 15.4S 127.0E: 040 [080]: 030 [055]: 988
+12: 06/1800: 15.8S 126.5E: 055 [100]: 025 [045]: 993
+18: 07/0000: 16.3S 125.9E: 065 [125]: 020 [035]: 997
+24: 07/0600: 16.8S 125.1E: 080 [145]: 020 [035]: 1000
+36: 07/1800: 17.0S 123.8E: 100 [185]: 020 [035]: 1002
+48: 08/0600: 17.3S 122.7E: 120 [220]: 020 [035]: 1001
+60: 08/1800: 17.5S 121.5E: 140 [255]: 020 [035]: 1001
+72: 09/0600: 17.9S 120.7E: 155 [290]: 020 [035]: 1001
+96: 10/0600: 19.2S 119.3E: 200 [370]: 020 [035]: 1003
+120: 11/0600: 20.6S 119.1E: 290 [535]: 020 [035]: 1003
REMARKS:
LLCC evident on radar, continuing to track inland after crossing the coast at
03Z today.

Dvorak analysis unavailable due to system being located over land.

Recent motion has been to the SW at 10 knots. NWP guidance shows system becoming
increasingly sheared from this evening as the middle-level circulation moves
southwest more rapidly than the LLCC. Although the LLCC is expected to track
west towards the coast again mid-week, the shear and the influence of dry air
are expected to prevent redevelopment.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 06/1400 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

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#1411147 - 07/03/2017 00:04 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3059
Loc: Broome


Sat pic shows nice cloud mass earlier on today .

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1411148 - 07/03/2017 00:07 Re: Tropical Cyclone Blanche (96S) Arafura Sea - March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3059
Loc: Broome


TC Blanche gone but can still make a reappearance ...if all goes well ..not that likely though .Lots of dry air off the coast if she crosses back to the Kimberley coast near Cape Leveque.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Blanche at 5:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 15.4 degrees South, 127.2 degrees East , 100 kilometres west of Wyndham and 135 kilometres south southeast of Kalumburu .
Movement: south southwest at 20 kilometres per hour .

The cyclone has weakened into a tropical depression. The ex-tropical cyclone is expected to continue moving inland over the Kimberley.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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