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#1410747 - 04/03/2017 18:03 SA - Low Pressure Trough with Showers and Storms March 6th - 10th
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1573
Loc: Uleybury
It has been pegged for a few days now so it deserves its own forum.

What we have is a broad area of low pressure that is to develop over the next day or two and start to move into SA.

Trough will move in on Tuesday and push SW and looks to be one of best day for storms across central parts of SA, more so NE quadrant.
LI's to be -2 widespread with areas down to -4 in areas.
TT bwtween 51-54, peaks of 55-58.
Areas of 300-500CAPE with areas of 600. I'd expect some decent sized storms West of Morgan and around Burra areas Tuesday.

Wednesday seems to be favoring the ranges for the arvo so something to watch out for.

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#1410785 - 04/03/2017 20:50 Re: SA - Low Pressure Trough with Showers and Storms March 6th - 10th [Re: StormCapture]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6735
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
The HGHTs show the potential for the [upper] trough [albeit looking mild] to develop behind the NSW activity [from the west]. My inclination is it's going to be wet around the 7th-8th, maybe into 9th [if lucky]. The ridge could well stop the trough from moving a lot.

I agree about Morgan and Burra smile .

Edit: My blue, upper, and maybe surface with northern low (Bureau).


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (04/03/2017 20:57)
_________________________
Only the most naive gamblers bet against physics, and only the most irresponsible bet with their grandchildrens resources.

-- William H. Calvin.

[A quote about abrupt weather pattern changes occurring within decades.]

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#1410793 - 04/03/2017 21:11 Re: SA - Low Pressure Trough with Showers and Storms March 6th - 10th [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3839
Loc: Reynella
well stuff my chooks, if it ain't the 'l retrograde trough
finally making an appearance and with a nice little upper low
and associated coldpool thrown in for good measure which is
why tots are so good.
what you on about naz?, last i remember you was goin'on about
a "drought"
the ridge is cradeling the trough and preventing southern
penetration but helping the retrograde to the west.
pwats of around 30 are perfect for hardcore development
with little to no cap at the beginning they should go up easy
and early for tues. and wed. but they will be relativly low
topped with a rock solid concrete inversion starting at
30thou'
certainly looking good for the mid north again as usual,
being midweek as is pretty much always the case,(even though
the ratio is 5:2 it seems more like 10:1), going to be the usual
non event for me, all i'll be able to do is run to the end of my
chain and bark.
models vary as to how far south and east this will go, access
showing the most atm. just have to keep snacking on each model
run to see if adelaide is in for a chance.
i put it at about 50:50 atm, anyone else is welcome to shove
some other odds up me as to adelaids chances.
cmon Tek, chuck your hat in the ring.

TH
_________________________
it doesn't matter if you're 7 years old or 70 years old, a world leader or a lowly battler,
respect can only ever be earned, it can never be commanded.
TH - 1980s

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#1410797 - 04/03/2017 21:24 Re: SA - Low Pressure Trough with Showers and Storms March 6th - 10th [Re: ThD Ht]
Max Record Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/04/2009
Posts: 1655
Loc: Adelaide
Originally Posted By: ThD Ht

certainly looking good for the mid north again as usual,
being midweek as is pretty much always the case,(even though
the ratio is 5:2 it seems more like 10:1), going to be the usual
non event for me, all i'll be able to do is run to the end of my
chain and bark.


I love your way with words smile
_________________________
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2012: 426.8mm
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2009: 459.2mm
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#1410816 - 04/03/2017 23:17 Re: SA - Low Pressure Trough with Showers and Storms March 6th - 10th [Re: ThD Ht]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6735
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: ThD Ht
what you on about naz?, last i remember you was goin'on about
a "drought"

Yes, I was referring to dry conditions...proper dry conditions, which I thought might be coming...if this event gives more than 20 mm, over a reasonable area, several sites (not just isolated), I might rethink that.

For now I'm just going to observe and wait.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (04/03/2017 23:24)
_________________________
Only the most naive gamblers bet against physics, and only the most irresponsible bet with their grandchildrens resources.

-- William H. Calvin.

[A quote about abrupt weather pattern changes occurring within decades.]

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#1411040 - 06/03/2017 05:58 Re: SA - Low Pressure Trough with Showers and Storms March 6th - 10th [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3839
Loc: Reynella
'more' than 20mm,.....really?
so a general rain of less than 20mm, say 19mm would still be
classed as your definition of a "drought" or which has now
become "dry conditions".
there's plenty of cockys out there that would be screaming
for drought and dry conditions under that definition.
and if "more 20mm over a reasonable area, several sites (not
just isolated)" 'might' cause you to rethink that, how much
would it take over a reasonable area, several sites (not
just isolated) to cause you to 'definitely' rethink that?

this area of rain and storms is evaporating north with each
run, damn indian giving models.
never mind, not like that's never happened before.
the drought continues.
weekend is looking half decent atm. have to see how that one
pans out

btw thanks for your comment MR.

TH
_________________________
it doesn't matter if you're 7 years old or 70 years old, a world leader or a lowly battler,
respect can only ever be earned, it can never be commanded.
TH - 1980s

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#1411095 - 06/03/2017 18:02 Re: SA - Low Pressure Trough with Showers and Storms March 6th - 10th [Re: StormCapture]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6735
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: ThD Ht
'more' than 20mm,.....really?
so a general rain of less than 20mm, say 19mm would still be
classed as your definition of a "drought" or which has now
become "dry conditions".

I can ignore definitions in this discussion, statistics and so on and focus purely on factual observations (right now) and what I see out the window. Thats my feeling. I see mostly clear blue sky out the window (looking north), and very little wind. Maybe slightly humid with about 23 C.

I'm not going to argue over this stuff!


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (06/03/2017 18:11)
_________________________
Only the most naive gamblers bet against physics, and only the most irresponsible bet with their grandchildrens resources.

-- William H. Calvin.

[A quote about abrupt weather pattern changes occurring within decades.]

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#1411096 - 06/03/2017 18:12 Re: SA - Low Pressure Trough with Showers and Storms March 6th - 10th [Re: Max Record]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1367
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Originally Posted By: Max Record
Originally Posted By: ThD Ht

..................all i'll be able to do is run to the end of my
chain and bark.


I love your way with words smile


Should be a bush story teller grin
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March - 33mm to 0900 25th.

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#1411124 - 06/03/2017 20:16 Re: SA - Low Pressure Trough with Showers and Storms March 6th - 10th [Re: StormCapture]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17410
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
yes please - enough of the semantics and definitions.

As for tomorrow - looks ok over the mid north. If I was free i'd head to the Spalding/Crystal Brook area but could well see a few showers/storms as far sth as Clare-Eudunda. Best storms however looks to be Flinders and eastern border areas north of the Riverland.
(and this is more of a hunch then anything - just keep an eye overnight tonight on the mid level cloud developing out east and pushing in - could see an odd spot in central areas overnight.)

I'm thinking wednesday actually looks the best for something over the Adelaide Hills. Prob also still some over the MN, EP, and Mallee as well.

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#1411171 - 07/03/2017 09:57 Re: SA - Low Pressure Trough with Showers and Storms March 6th - 10th [Re: StormCapture]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17410
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
few storms sparking off in Upper MN early this morning. Should continue through the day and extend southwards as far as about Eudunda and north into Flinders with convection. Northern parts of the Riverland might also just get something.

(edit: actually it wouldnt surprise me to see a bit of convection on the nth hills here and Barossa this arvo - might be just enough to get a weak cell going)


Edited by teckert (07/03/2017 10:04)

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#1411186 - 07/03/2017 11:25 Re: SA - Low Pressure Trough with Showers and Storms March 6th - 10th [Re: teckert]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17410
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Originally Posted By: teckert


(edit: actually it wouldnt surprise me to see a bit of convection on the nth hills here and Barossa this arvo - might be just enough to get a weak cell going)


Sure enough.... BOM just updated Adelaide forecast...
Afternoon cloud. Slight (20%) chance of a shower and possible thunderstorm, mainly about the hills and northern suburbs this afternoon and early evening.

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#1411250 - 07/03/2017 20:01 Re: SA - Low Pressure Trough with Showers and Storms March 6th - 10th [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3839
Loc: Reynella
sorry samboz, if you havn't already seen it i meant to tell
you i addressed your comment in the day to day thread rather
than here.

bit of a wimper today, might get better tomorrow.

TH
_________________________
it doesn't matter if you're 7 years old or 70 years old, a world leader or a lowly battler,
respect can only ever be earned, it can never be commanded.
TH - 1980s

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#1411258 - 07/03/2017 21:05 Re: SA - Low Pressure Trough with Showers and Storms March 6th - 10th [Re: StormCapture]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1573
Loc: Uleybury
Headed to Spalding / Jamestown area today to see what would eventuate. Not much for quite awhile as most cu was battling through the cap. Sat on the outskirts of Spalding for a while before heading NW as cells started to fire up.

Looked like they were gonna miss so started heading home before new cells developed to the east of where I was so pulled into a side street off Pt Wakefield Rd A1 and watched a rapid developing cell that dumped a bit of rain on top. I'd say around 4-5mm in around 10 minutes, massive drops, plenty of thunder but couldn't see any of the few CGs recorded even through was watching it when they occurred on the tracker.

Not bad for 602km on 1 tank for a small car.

Hopefully tomorrow brings better favours but not holding my breath with how some of the charts look.

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#1411272 - 07/03/2017 23:25 Re: SA - Low Pressure Trough with Showers and Storms March 6th - 10th [Re: StormCapture]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2026
Loc: Clare, SA
Yeah very average day but was expecting that, only PWATS of 25mm, struggletown with the lack of moisture and overall instability and nearly complete lack of shear.

Didn't plan on chasing but a decent enough base got up north of Clare and I followed it to Koolunga, couldn't help myself. Reasonable single cell pulse put out a very brief rainfoot as it dumped and some reasonably heavy rain. Nicely discrete given near perfect clear skies to the south and east. Koolunga was quite wet, hard to guess but probably 10-15mm or so. Some fairly wet paddocks around.

Loving that the last couple of storm days have been quite local!

A few images.
The cell glaciating and beginning to precipitate.


Bulk of the rain starting to fall.




Main street of Koolunga with a bit of water.
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#1411273 - 07/03/2017 23:26 Re: SA - Low Pressure Trough with Showers and Storms March 6th - 10th [Re: StormCapture]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17410
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
reports of 15-30 mm around Koolunga...


ooooh nice pics Mark!


Edited by teckert (07/03/2017 23:26)

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#1411287 - 08/03/2017 08:28 Re: SA - Low Pressure Trough with Showers and Storms March 6th - 10th [Re: StormCapture]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17410
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
probably a similar scenario today again... maybe even less!
Isolated storms in the Mid North, Flinders, and north of the Riverland.

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#1411299 - 08/03/2017 09:39 Re: SA - Low Pressure Trough with Showers and Storms March 6th - 10th [Re: StormCapture]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1573
Loc: Uleybury
Good shots Mark, I saw that cell when I was on the Goyder heading to Crystal Brook.

Would have liked to be under that core with the WX Station to record the rainfall and rain rate. I'll get my images up later today.

Next day of interest is Friday-Saturday. Hope not Friday as I'll be in Town for the Fringe so might chuck the camera in the bag with me, not sure to drive or train it into the city.

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#1411321 - 08/03/2017 12:55 Re: SA - Low Pressure Trough with Showers and Storms March 6th - 10th [Re: StormCapture]
Helen Offline
Moderator

Registered: 07/11/2001
Posts: 9631
Loc: Mid North, SA
10mm recorded in Jamestown yesterday. Sat and watch the lightning tracker with interest as Peterborough got hammered and then further east into no-man's-land. What a shame I had to be in the big smoke, but there was some real nice cloud porn on the way home. Grateful there were no strikes within coo-ee of our house with the dogs locked inside due to the heat.

Cloud is building quicker today. Not holding my breath on anything eventuating close to home, but further north might be interesting. smile
_________________________
2017 YTD - 67.8mm Yearly Average - 403mm
Jan - 32.8mm (10mm) / Feb - 35.0mm (10mm) / Mar - - (15mm) / Apr - - (31mm)
May - - (46mm) / June - - (51mm) / July - - (59mm) / Aug - - (54mm)
Sept - - (48mm) / Oct - - (38mm) / Nov - - (23mm) / Dec - - (18mm)
Total 2016 - 637.2mm



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#1411342 - 08/03/2017 15:21 Re: SA - Low Pressure Trough with Showers and Storms March 6th - 10th [Re: StormCapture]
Pooley72 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/01/2017
Posts: 23
Loc: Seacliff Park
Nice build-up of convective cloud over the Adelaide Hills at the moment...
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#1411348 - 08/03/2017 16:08 Re: SA - Low Pressure Trough with Showers and Storms March 6th - 10th [Re: StormCapture]
jack63 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/02/2010
Posts: 263
Loc: Mt Barker, Adelaide Hills
We have lots of cloud building over us in Mt Barker, will it come to anything?

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