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#1411369 - 08/03/2017 17:29 VIC: Low & Trough - Humid & Unsettled With Showers & Thunderstorms - March 9-15 2017
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5676
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
G'day gang! Bula. smile

Thought a new thread was needed for what seems to be shaping up to be an eventful 2017 Labour Day Long Weekend for Victoria, so without further ado here we go... wink

The models and charts have been jumping around a fair bit lately, but now they're starting to fall more-or-less in line for the upcoming seven day period.

The latest forecasts have a low pressure trough starting to form over Central Australia, partly in response to Ex-Tropical Cyclone Blanche. The trough will swing down from the northwest into Southeastern Australia in coming days, reaching Western Victoria by Saturday. Moisture will be pumped into the system from the South Pacific due to a large high extending over the Tasman Sea through Tassie towards the Bight, aided by the ECL that's been affecting the East Coast for much of the past week or so.

Unsure about rainfall totals, but Ventusky and BSCH have potentially unstable conditions on the cards this long weekend! smile

For tomorrow:

Fine and mostly sunny apart from morning fog over Gippsland, and high cloud over the Southwest. Generally warm to hot with light to moderate northerly winds tending southerly in the arvo. Forecast tops of 32C for Melbourne, and 35C for Mildura.

For Friday:

Morning fog in the south, early drizzle in the Southwest, and isolated afternoon showers about the Eastern Ranges. Otherwise a fine, warm to hot and mostly sunny day with light winds tending southerly during the day. Forecast tops of 24C for Melbourne, and 35C for Mildura.

For Saturday:

Cloud increasing with showers (maybe thunderstorms?) developing over Western and Central districts, tending to rain over the Southwest; dry apart from isolated showers in the East. Mild to warm in the South, hot in the North. Light winds tending southerly from the West during the day. Forecast tops of 27C for Melbourne, and 34C for Mildura.

For Sunday:

Cloudy with rain areas and thunderstorms across all districts, contracting eastwards later in the day. Mild to warm, with light winds in the East, fresh southwest/southerly winds elsewhere. Forecast tops of 21C for Melbourne, and 27C for Mildura.

Looking forward to this event, even though I'll be away in Canberra (not Corryong) over the weekend! Have a great one gang! wink

Aussiestormfreak

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#1411381 - 08/03/2017 18:42 Re: VIC: Low & Trough - Humid & Unsettled With Showers & Thunderstorms - March 9-15 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6391
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Well done ASF.

Looks to be a slow moving "closed" low pressure system to arrive into Vic next Sat night and to influence our weather till at least next Thursday???:



This will be very interesting for all us to watch evolve (whatever evolves) - at this stage not a huge rain event, ....but with the consensus of AccG, surely the charts (above) puts an end to a late bush fire event for Vic for summer 2016/2017?

Bring it on!

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#1411392 - 08/03/2017 19:50 Re: VIC: Low & Trough - Humid & Unsettled With Showers & Thunderstorms - March 9-15 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5676
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Cheers Samboz! smile

Yes, could easily influence Victoria's weather for virtually ALL of next week! And both ACCESS and GFS have a potentially major winter storm swinging our way late next week as well, so it'll be interesting to see if that can be factored into the equation. smile

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#1411401 - 08/03/2017 20:56 Re: VIC: Low & Trough - Humid & Unsettled With Showers & Thunderstorms - March 9-15 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5676
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Oops! Sorry Samboz, I meant Petros. blush

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#1411403 - 08/03/2017 21:02 Re: VIC: Low & Trough - Humid & Unsettled With Showers & Thunderstorms - March 9-15 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1524
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Thanks asf, I have my teeth !!
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April-40mm. May-12mm. June-11mm to 0900 24th.

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#1411440 - 09/03/2017 09:51 Re: VIC: Low & Trough - Humid & Unsettled With Showers & Thunderstorms - March 9-15 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5676
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 13.8C, currently around 23C and sunny. smile

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#1411467 - 09/03/2017 13:34 Re: VIC: Low & Trough - Humid & Unsettled With Showers & Thunderstorms - March 9-15 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2190
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Wonderful its a change for Storm-chasers to go out have some fun by this weekend and need rain for March.

The next system looks interesting if will be cold polar or slip away too early on GFS Chart.

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#1411469 - 09/03/2017 13:52 Re: VIC: Low & Trough - Humid & Unsettled With Showers & Thunderstorms - March 9-15 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2190
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
But https://www.windytv.com updated to March 18th seem next week Southern Ocean lows is slipping away still bring warm to hot to SE Australia.

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#1411482 - 09/03/2017 16:34 Re: VIC: Low & Trough - Humid & Unsettled With Showers & Thunderstorms - March 9-15 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Weather_Viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 251
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
My weather station reported 35.2C today out in Tarneit, not to sure if my station is over reading slightly?

I was at work today in the city, no idea what the conditions felt like in the outer western suburbs. Anyway this coming weekend is not adding up to much, the heat rolls on.
_________________________
Wunderground

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#1411489 - 09/03/2017 17:27 Re: VIC: Low & Trough - Humid & Unsettled With Showers & Thunderstorms - March 9-15 2017 [Re: Weather_Viewer]
Remy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/02/2015
Posts: 198
Loc: Mulgrave (SE Suburbs), Melbour...
Originally Posted By: Weather_Viewer
Anyway this coming weekend is not adding up to much, the heat rolls on.


And loving it. cool

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#1411504 - 09/03/2017 18:40 Re: VIC: Low & Trough - Humid & Unsettled With Showers & Thunderstorms - March 9-15 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6391
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Nice 28.9C here today, with no seabreeze.

Will Vic experience storms over Sat/Sun coming?

.....and is that a cyclone brewing in the charts for N QLD for next week?

.....will Samboz realise that even "jaded old weather watchers" can still retain their original teeth?

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#1411521 - 09/03/2017 20:19 Re: VIC: Low & Trough - Humid & Unsettled With Showers & Thunderstorms - March 9-15 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5676
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Lol interesting discussion going on here regarding teeth! wink

I'm keen to see what unfolds for Victoria over the coming 7-10 days, but also in Southeast NSW/ACT (and in Northeast Victoria) during this weekend. Yes I'm off to Canberra tomorrow. smile

Reached a hot, dry, mostly sunny top of 36.1C here in Belgrave today. There wasn't too much of a breeze to take the edge off the heat, but no matter. I was still able to enjoy it outside. smile

A veil of high cloud moved over Melbourne from the west around late-arvo, but it's clearing eastwards now. Looked lovely at sunset, especially with the full moon rising. smile

Currently around 24C.

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#1411529 - 09/03/2017 21:10 Re: VIC: Low & Trough - Humid & Unsettled With Showers & Thunderstorms - March 9-15 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 910
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Warm 31c up here again!! Very dry again
Around here, really hopping we get at least 10mm
Out of this weekends system?

Access g is insane for heat and wind next week lol

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#1411620 - 10/03/2017 19:05 Re: VIC: Low & Trough - Humid & Unsettled With Showers & Thunderstorms - March 9-15 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6391
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Lovely fine calm day here reached 30.8C on my gauge. Only a light/late seabreeze.

BOM predict a storm chance out this way on Sunday! - hope all other Vic regions get one too!:



Edited by Petros (10/03/2017 19:13)

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#1411639 - 10/03/2017 20:59 Re: VIC: Low & Trough - Humid & Unsettled With Showers & Thunderstorms - March 9-15 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2190
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Nice 32c Today.

its true or guess "Melbourne's warm days week has come to an end this weekend" what about next week...???

Well after good thundery rain weekend low system as from next Monday 13th to Sunday 19th will be 32-34c days for Northern Country.

I am Guessing warm air will reach south if Sea breezes weaken during day.

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#1411689 - 11/03/2017 11:04 Re: VIC: Low & Trough - Humid & Unsettled With Showers & Thunderstorms - March 9-15 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2190
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Reached to 28c at 11am

Isolated thundery at West Victoria.SA border.

Hope more development thundery later Today.

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#1411706 - 11/03/2017 16:06 Re: VIC: Low & Trough - Humid & Unsettled With Showers & Thunderstorms - March 9-15 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1104
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
It is the 11th and yet to see any showers and thunderstorms
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

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#1411719 - 11/03/2017 18:05 Re: VIC: Low & Trough - Humid & Unsettled With Showers & Thunderstorms - March 9-15 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6391
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Baro has dropped from 1014 yest to 1007 hPa now, a calm, very warm and humid day here - 31C. A light easterly briefly arrived an hour ago to cool things slightly, but now an overcast mild evening perfect for campers and BBQ's around N Gippy.

BOM still forecasting a chance of a storm here tomorrow, so hanging out for that! ...if we could pick up another 6mm+ after last weekends 22mm, the Royal Maffra Golf Club would be rapt.

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#1411721 - 11/03/2017 18:08 Re: VIC: Low & Trough - Humid & Unsettled With Showers & Thunderstorms - March 9-15 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1104
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
As is par for the course these days! The stray bit of thunder is what storms are what Thunderstorms are these days
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

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#1411723 - 11/03/2017 18:21 Re: VIC: Low & Trough - Humid & Unsettled With Showers & Thunderstorms - March 9-15 2017 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6391
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Looks like a decent storm cell has spawned out Pakenham way - heading towards Dooga's stomping ground in an hours time!??


Edited by Petros (11/03/2017 18:22)

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