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#1411402 - 08/03/2017 20:59 Upper Trough, Storms and Possible ECL 13-20 March 2017
Floodhunta Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/11/2002
Posts: 618
Loc: Bowral asl 690m
Hi all, thought I'd kick start the conversation on this. The models are slowly aligning, and at the SES we are already taking an interest in what might occur.
This one looks more interesting than last week's weak ECL, with a stronger and better defined upper low and warm seas that should kick start a decent system.
At the moment Coffs to Batemans Bay seem to be in the frame, no doubt the location of worst impact will tighten up in coming days as the models come to grips.
Let the prognostications begin!


Edited by Seabreeze (21/03/2017 14:25)
Edit Reason: extended to 20th to cover missing day

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#1411405 - 08/03/2017 21:21 Re: Upper Trough, Storms and Possible ECL 13-20 March 2017 [Re: Floodhunta]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5866
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Be interesting to watch this event unfold across NSW/ACT over coming days, especially as I'm going to be in Canberra over the Victorian Labour Day Weekend. I've put in a special order for some ripper storms lol. wink

Edit: hope the impact of the anticipated ECL won't be too damaging, especially along the coast. frown


Edited by aussiestormfreak (08/03/2017 21:23)

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#1411410 - 08/03/2017 22:39 Re: Upper Trough, Storms and Possible ECL 13-20 March 2017 [Re: Floodhunta]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6485
Come on give us a really good ECL. We need a bit of weather excitement!! grin
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1411449 - 09/03/2017 11:09 Re: Upper Trough, Storms and Possible ECL 13-20 March 2017 [Re: Floodhunta]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2722
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
12Z EC has zero excitement factor and has gone from healthy looking falls to not much at all, this also reflects in OCF.

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#1411535 - 09/03/2017 21:15 Re: Upper Trough, Storms and Possible ECL 13-20 March 2017 [Re: Floodhunta]
Floodhunta Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/11/2002
Posts: 618
Loc: Bowral asl 690m
BoM now advising ECL unlikely and troughing again the go. Still wet but not as bad as was evident a few runs ago.

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#1411604 - 10/03/2017 15:44 Re: Upper Trough, Storms and Possible ECL 13-20 March 2017 [Re: Floodhunta]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1348
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
I have never seen a weather system dissolve so quickly when the models were in relative alignment. Was really looking forward to it and was good timing on the back of the last event. Happy to get some sun in the meantime though as the cloudy weather and no rain southerly setup is fairly good for nothing. Wonder if it could turn back as quickly as it disappeared? Ants still think something is on, but not looking great from the last model runs....

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#1411626 - 10/03/2017 19:27 Re: Upper Trough, Storms and Possible ECL 13-20 March 2017 [Re: Floodhunta]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1469
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=wzcountry&lc=aus&mt=accessg&mc=mslp&mso=0&mh=240&focus=mh

It looks good above GringosRain,but things will change like always when it gets closer.
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#1411669 - 11/03/2017 06:54 Re: Upper Trough, Storms and Possible ECL 13-20 March 2017 [Re: Floodhunta]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1553
Loc: Orange, NSW
Gorgeous sunrise this morning - I guess that means we're in for some rain smile
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Wunderground | davidm.com.au

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#1411693 - 11/03/2017 11:46 Re: Upper Trough, Storms and Possible ECL 13-20 March 2017 [Re: davidm]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5866
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Originally Posted By: davidm
Gorgeous sunrise this morning - I guess that means we're in for some rain smile


Wish I could say the same about a "gorgeous sunrise" lol. poke

I'm in Canberra atm, having arrived from Melbourne yesterday evening. My family and I left home at 9:30am, reaching the Capital around 6:30pm, stopping along the way at Yea and Wangaratta in Victoria, and Tarcutta in NSW; we crossed the Murray River at Albury/Wodonga just after 2:30pm btw. Full road trip report for yesterday to come later. smile

No beautiful sunrise this morning when I went down to Regatta Point on the shores of Lake Burley Griffin to see the start of the 2017 Canberra Balloon Spectacular on the lawns of Old Parliament House, keeping up-to-date on Facebook. In fact, the event itself didn't get off the ground! A number of hot air balloons got themselves inflated but that was that. The whole Capital was enveloped in heavy fog, with mist blowing off the lake, and a chilly easterly wind! eek crazy

The fog lifted around 9:30am, and now it's a gloriously warm, mostly sunny day with some high cloud and a nice breeze! Dipped to 9.1C at the airport last night, currently around 20C. Going for a top of 29C this arvo. Hoping to see some showers and thunderstorms about the Brindabella Ranges and NSW Snowy Mountains later! smile

Hoping tomorrow I'll have a better chance at seeing the balloons taking off! smile


Edited by aussiestormfreak (11/03/2017 11:48)

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#1411707 - 11/03/2017 16:06 Re: Upper Trough, Storms and Possible ECL 13-20 March 2017 [Re: Floodhunta]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
I hope incessant troughing isnt a feature of the rest of this month and beyond. Drags too much warmth to the coast and stufs up getting beefy fronts.

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#1411711 - 11/03/2017 17:25 Re: Upper Trough, Storms and Possible ECL 13-20 March 2017 [Re: Floodhunta]
Homer Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5327
Loc: Dural
Predicted rainfall totals have gone up a little bit in the latest forecast.
What a gorgeous autumnal day today was.
Warm in the sun. Not too humid. A few clouds.
Just perfect.

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#1411712 - 11/03/2017 17:27 Re: Upper Trough, Storms and Possible ECL 13-20 March 2017 [Re: Knot]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6485
Originally Posted By: Knot
I hope incessant troughing isnt a feature of the rest of this month and beyond. Drags too much warmth to the coast and stufs up getting beefy fronts.


I would like it if it was associated with common thunderstorms, and they are possible next week, so hopefully that eventuates. Agree that it's time for a solid cold front though.

Totally agree Homer, perfect day and it was extremely autumnal. The same weather with some clouds as well. I was stoked when I woke up to sunshine this morning, made my day before I even got out of bed. smile

PS: Shouldn't we be posting in the DTD thread?


Edited by Wave Rider (11/03/2017 17:30)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1411753 - 11/03/2017 22:06 Re: Upper Trough, Storms and Possible ECL 13-20 March 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider


PS: Shouldn't we be posting in the DTD thread?


I'm still internally dislocated by moving that I thought today was the 13th he he

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#1411797 - 12/03/2017 10:15 Re: Upper Trough, Storms and Possible ECL 13-20 March 2017 [Re: Floodhunta]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1553
Loc: Orange, NSW
Looks like the event will open with a bang tomorrow smile

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Wunderground | davidm.com.au

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#1411801 - 12/03/2017 10:42 Re: Upper Trough, Storms and Possible ECL 13-20 March 2017 [Re: Floodhunta]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3667
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
This 15 day forecast for Sydney indicates a sunny day today, the warm and and stormy for a couple of days, then Easterlies, rain, showers and mild temperatures forever:

Weather.com Sydney

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#1411806 - 12/03/2017 11:06 Re: Upper Trough, Storms and Possible ECL 13-20 March 2017 [Re: Floodhunta]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2722
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Tomorrow winds are NE right up to the 500hpa level, so any storms that do develop will travel in a NE-SW direction if I'm not mistaken, so for the coastal areas are they expecting the storms to develop offshore and then move in off the ocean?


Edited by CoastalStorm22 (12/03/2017 11:08)

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#1411878 - 12/03/2017 16:48 Re: Upper Trough, Storms and Possible ECL 13-20 March 2017 [Re: Floodhunta]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8351
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
One for the BoM forecasting humor page:

Sydney
Tuesday 14 March
Storms. Possible storm.

laugh

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#1411880 - 12/03/2017 17:09 Re: Upper Trough, Storms and Possible ECL 13-20 March 2017 [Re: Floodhunta]
Sidney Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 292
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
25-70mm for tuesday. thats a massive range

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#1411881 - 12/03/2017 17:25 Re: Upper Trough, Storms and Possible ECL 13-20 March 2017 [Re: Floodhunta]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5866
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Hi gang! My report for yesterday from here in Canberra. smile

Canberra International Airport
Low: 9.1C High: 30.1C Rainfall: 0mm

Tuggerangong
Low: 8.4C High: 29.6C Rainfall: 0mm

Mount Ginini
Low: 9.6C High: 20.2C Rainfall: 0mm

As stated in my last post, it was a chilly, foggy start to yesterday. A pity the Canberra Balloon Spectacular got cancelled. frown

I forgot to mention that there was just the very, VERY odd light spit of rain yesterday morning.

But once the fog lifted around 9:30am, my family and I were left with a hot, dry, mostly sunny day with a cooling breeze. Perfect for going into the City and later to the Australian War Memorial. smile

And despite the wind out on Lake Burley Griffin, the evening was very pleasant for being in the Parliamentary Triangle for 2017 Enlightenment Canberra! Plenty of stars and a bright, near-full moon. smile

In spite of the forecasts, the nearest shower and thunderstorm activity to Canberra yesterday was over the NSW Snowy Mountains and the Monaro Plains/Southern Tablelands region (including Dalgety and Bombala) way off to the south last night, having started out in the Victorian High Country and then dying out over the South Coast. poke


Edited by aussiestormfreak (12/03/2017 17:28)

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#1411887 - 12/03/2017 18:26 Re: Upper Trough, Storms and Possible ECL 13-20 March 2017 [Re: Floodhunta]
Thundersnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/06/2007
Posts: 214
Loc: Tamworth, NSW 440m
I am looking forward to a bit of thunder, rain and probably hail tomorrow afternoon. Should be fun!

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