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#1411316 - 08/03/2017 12:32 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4681
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Hi Ken, love your posts, but I am really curious about your comment that long term weather forecasting is basically a 50-50 lottery chance.
No, I never said it was a "50/50" lottery, I said it's a lottery in the context of your post where you said that "Folks around here just want to know when its gona rain, not a damn percentage chance lottery. If one asks for a lottery, one goes to a bloody casino!" i.e. the sheer complexity of weather means that at longer ranges, it's rarely as black and white as saying "yes, it's going to rain". Some situations are going to be much more likely than others hence the percentages. That's just the way the weather's always worked and will continue to work. There's a big difference between a 50/50 lottery and a lottery in which some situations are heavily loaded towards a particular scenario and some aren't.

Quote:
I just cant get my head around that, primarily we are being force fed by certain people who want to pull all this money out of our pockets because the 'weather' will be a lot warmer/hotter, wetter in places drier in others etc.in 10 or 20 years time. I think that we are being sold a raw prawn(without white spot hopefully) with all this forecasting business.
I don't know if the mods will let this next comment through, I give to you an alternative fact, are you aware that over 50% of this planets heat emanates from the molten core which is basically a giant nuclear reactor? Yes, the core is radioactive and very, very hot & all that leaching heat may be starting affecting the weather, warming oceans etc. Any need for me to explain the consequences of massive volcanic eruptions?
Who said you were being force fed? Those are your words, not anyone else's. *You* decide whether you want to be force fed or not. Reality is an uncaring, unfeeling thing. It doesn't care whether or not "certain people want to pull money out of our pockets" or any other perceived motive for that matter. It is what it is.

You said weather in inverted commas but I'm not sure why because climate is just the longer term average of day to day weather. It doesn't mean the weather on every single day will reflect overall climatic trends. Many areas around the world are virtually guaranteed to see significant changes in the future and many of these changes have already been observed in recent decades in a BIG way. I posted maps of these earlier in this thread but I don't know if you saw them.

Quote:
are you aware that over 50% of this planets heat emanates from the molten core which is basically a giant nuclear reactor? Yes, the core is radioactive and very, very hot & all that leaching heat may be starting affecting the weather, warming oceans etc. Any need for me to explain the consequences of massive volcanic eruptions?
There's always been many different influences on our climate and there always will be in the future. But yet again, this is where context is everything. Just because a certain factor has an influence on our climate, it doesn't mean it has an equally big influence as all other factors. Some influences are big, some are small. In recent times, especially the last few decades, these influences have been dwarfed by the manmade influence (proven by the enormous amount of evidence including not only the most basic laws of physics/chemistry but also of things like forensic analysis of carbon isotope ratios).
We've also been through the whole volcanic influence thing on here before.

So instead of me repeating the same thing over and over on here, here's some info:

https://skepticalscience.com/underground-temperatures-control-climate.htm
https://skepticalscience.com/volcanoes-and-global-warming.htm
https://skepticalscience.com/coming-out-of-ice-age-volcanoes.htm

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#1411329 - 08/03/2017 13:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1291
Loc: Australia
Speaking of forecasting, I had a hunch the sky would light up this morning thanks to the ex-tropical cyclone cloud marching across the continent and making it's way to the east coast. Skippy Sky and BSCH are great tools for forecasting clouds, although like any forecast, is not 100%.
This one from this morning on the Gold Coast.

Sunrise Paradise by Glen Anderson, on Flickr

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#1411334 - 08/03/2017 14:16 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2383
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Agree with your summary and input Ken and also Seabreeze. To me weather is what it is and it will do what it wants when it wants. I also understands people's frustration. I enjoyed the old days when people were satisfied with a forecast of 2 days ahead. But that is just me.

Awesome shot Gleno71.
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VK4FCDM (Amateur radio call sign)

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#1411354 - 08/03/2017 16:29 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4361
Loc: Brisbane
Love all of your forecast posts Ken and will always be a big fan, but I thought climate change references were supposed to be kept out of these forums.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1411357 - 08/03/2017 16:37 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4681
Thanks Locke. But I've come to the point where I don't really care anymore. If someone raises it or an aspect of it (like before), then I'll comment on it or if it has any relevancy to the thread. As long as it doesn't drown out the main topic of this thread.
I can fully understand the idea behind avoiding the topic on these forums but at the same time, if this is what the world's come to where you can't even try to address misconceptions about it for fear of starting an out of control argument, I don't want any part of it.

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#1411362 - 08/03/2017 16:58 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 613
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Thank goodness for that now lets get back to observing the up and coming weather.Dont buy into it anymore Ken just do what ya do best mate everyone loves ya for that !

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#1411378 - 08/03/2017 18:27 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: TWEEDSTORM]
one drop Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/04/2014
Posts: 22
Loc: maryborough
Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
Thank goodness for that now lets get back to observing the up and coming weather.Dont buy into it anymore Ken just do what ya do best mate everyone loves ya for that !


hi all.
long time lurker here (2008 or so, long before i joined)

i love this forum for the range of opinions on a range of matters.
i've been reading lots of handy info and opinions on here for several years now and i hope this issue does not cause the loss of any more valuable members of this forum.
folks, please respect each others opinion more.

from what i've seen on here, i doubt anyone here actually wants "dumbed down" or "more basic" forecasts!
i, like i'm sure many of you do, pay weatherzone for access to more and varied information than the BOM easily provide. (they also provide percentage chance of rain)
roll out the changes and the same voices will find something else to complain about.

lets all look forward to the next widespread rain event that see's the river/sea in our backyard!
i just hope the knowledgeable folks are still around on here.

i'd love to mention names but seriously, the beauty of this forum is that almost everyone on here has something useful to say at one stage or another.

so seriously, you are all cool and your opinions and observations are extremely useful.
this crap weather has a lot of us frustrated. differences of opinion are fine, but stating opinion as fact and openly stirring the pot for questionable reasons just leads to more frustration.

sorry guys, it's not how i imagined my first post to go.

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#1411380 - 08/03/2017 18:33 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 854
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
That's "mostly fine" one drop. Teeheehee!!!

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#1411385 - 08/03/2017 19:11 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1121
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
Whats everyones thoughts on the possibility of rain/storms from Sunday onwards? Looks like another east coast trough with the heaviest rain in coastal NSW mid next week but still decent falls up into QLD. Even WATL showing a widespread 25-50mm over most of SEQ for next week.

Ps. Awesome photo as always Gleno and nice first post one drop!


Edited by LightningGus (08/03/2017 19:13)
_________________________
2016 Rainfall: 604mm
2017 Rainfall: 565mm ytd

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#1411391 - 08/03/2017 19:48 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
pabloako Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/03/2007
Posts: 1618
Loc: Ocean View, Queensland
Wow.. Stunning photo Gleno
_________________________
Ocean View, QLD. (Alt. 412m)

GFS + Long Range - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/GFS
Satellite Images - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/Satellite

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#1411396 - 08/03/2017 20:28 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 854
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Hi everyone from west coast nz north island. Liking forward to receiving the low in the coming days. Next one looks all nsw again....

Awesome work Gleno!

Not sure if people know... but the brisbane wave bouy has been upgraded with a few new parameters.
Some solid swell out wide today.

https://www.qld.gov.au/environment/coasts-waterways/beach/waves-sites/brisbane/

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#1411411 - 08/03/2017 22:45 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10204
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Breezy during the day with a couple of light sprinkles in the afternoon (not enough to register), however from sunset onwards there's been occasional showers here moving up from the S/SSW. 8.4mm since 9am.

Lord Howe Island getting a good wind from the low sitting about the northern Tasman Sea. From the current SWW for the island:
Quote:
Wind gusts between 90 km/h (48 knots) and 104 km/h (56 knots) have been recorded throughout Wednesday at Lord Howe Windy Point AWS. On Tuesday, a wind gust of 117 km/h (63 knots) was recorded at approximately 7:15pm AEDT at Lord Howe Windy Point AWS.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDN28504.txt


BTW, welcome to the forum One Drop. smile
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
November 2017 Rainfall: 90.2mm (Nov Avg. 115.9mm) // November 2017 Raindays: 17 (Nov Avg. 11.7 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1458.0mm (Yearly Avg. 1491.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 145 (Yearly Avg. 137.4 raindays)

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#1411417 - 09/03/2017 01:12 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Delta-T Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 28
Loc: Peachester
Since January the 27th (40 days) Brisbane has had only one day below 30C. With at least 7 more to come.

Kind of over it.

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#1411422 - 09/03/2017 06:37 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
one drop Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/04/2014
Posts: 22
Loc: maryborough
Thanks guys. smile
i hope i can add some useful info and observations going forward.

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#1411430 - 09/03/2017 08:39 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 401
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Next week showers storms look like a similar to last week setup with an upper low meandering around NE NSW. Hit and Miss showers and storms with localised heavier falls for SE QLD. The shear looks a little bit better than last week though.
_________________________
Records are MEANT to be broken.

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#1411451 - 09/03/2017 11:15 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Bello Weather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/07/2012
Posts: 358
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Some time off but starting to see the signs of a potentially decent event across at least NE NSW. Rain totals for the next two weeks from the latest GFS run (18z) looking like this:



Ongoing onshore flow across NE NSW and SE QLD with above average SSTs combined with upper systems coming across from time to time enhancing the rain and showers. Totals increasing with each run, EC has been more on again off again for spot locations, but that is not surprising this far out, still showing the potential that is out there with good falls across our region. Sure it will firm up in the next couple of days, getting close to being thread-worthy...
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www.bellingenweather.org

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#1411455 - 09/03/2017 12:18 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1609
Loc: Kingaroy
I've noticed the average daily use for water in SEQ has jumped to nearly 200 litres and the total dam capacity is down to 70% and dropping.c

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#1411463 - 09/03/2017 13:00 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2755
Loc: Buderim
There's been a bit of chopping and changing with the models on whether a high pressure will establish well south, or well north once the current low in the Tasman sea pushes off. Current runs are back to pushing the high south which is a good sign for some better rain, especially for coastal parts, but a couple days ago it was if anything even worse than what we have seen in the last month or three.

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#1411477 - 09/03/2017 15:11 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6621
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I can see most of the rainfall shifting further and further south into NSW leaving us with nothing again. I hope I am wrong of course. GFS spewing out 50mm this far north in that chart is extremely generous if you ask me.

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#1411480 - 09/03/2017 15:43 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Bello Weather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/07/2012
Posts: 358
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Latest GFS run actually moves the band north again, but that is neither here now there...what we can see is that there will be a decent combo of onshore winds, high SSTs and upper cold pool somewhere around SE Qld, NE NSW, impossible at this time to know who will get how much, but looks like there will be some good falls around.
What is interesting for me is the persistence of the pattern - lasts for a good week or so, giving more than one area a chance to get some good falls. I reckon many of us could be smiling in a couple of weeks smile
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www.bellingenweather.org

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