Page 12 of 23 < 1 2 ... 10 11 12 13 14 ... 22 23 >
Topic Options
#1410233 - 01/03/2017 20:06 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 220
Originally Posted By: Mick10
great summary there Mangrove. As we all know, March is the most favoured month for tropical cyclones in the Coral Sea, there is obviously still a big window for something to develop. i will do some research and find out when the last cyclone was that brought the first system in march. will be interesting to match up with rainfall records for that year compared to this year.


Yep. Just thinking that the Internet, modelling development / learnings and super computing capacity is far greater now than ever before - especially when one considers that back in the 90s (from memory), the Pentium was the biggest think for Personal Computing. It wasn't much before that - maybe 10 to 15 years prior, that the Commodore 64 was all the rage.

Theoretically, machine learning algorithms and the methodologies which underpin the various techniques and models in todays' world, means that the BOM and other monitoring / reporting agencies have had some significant challenges in the past 20 or so years. Having an abundance of data and heaven knows how many datasets across many many Databases is challenging in itself. And with that, new information identified within the insights that they're learning along the way, means that we have access to some of the best available data since ever before.

Data transfer is much easier now too. This has overcome some of the inter / intra-Agency challenges associated with building more globally-based models / forecasts.

Just thought I could some value to the discussion. Would be really interesting to see what could be uncovered with some of the datasets in todays world (and well done on the initiative Mick 10). I like it.

Top
#1410548 - 03/03/2017 13:35 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
Did your research bring anything up.
_________________________
Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

Top
#1411054 - 06/03/2017 09:53 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
KBO Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/01/2015
Posts: 105
Loc: Cairns
Well Guys, I do believe every day forward from today is a new record for the Coral Sea.
There has been some seasons when no TCs have crossed the QLD coast, But there has always been a TC somewhere in the Coral Sea by now...

Top
#1411059 - 06/03/2017 10:13 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: KBO]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5120
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Originally Posted By: KBO
Well Guys, I do believe every day forward from today is a new record for the Coral Sea.
There has been some seasons when no TCs have crossed the QLD coast, But there has always been a TC somewhere in the Coral Sea by now...


Quite incredible isn't it. Quite incredible

Top
#1411060 - 06/03/2017 10:24 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7344
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
A complete joke is what it is.

Top
#1411093 - 06/03/2017 17:22 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25337
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
I didnt get much time on weekend the yeats i went thru failed to bring up a season. Complete records only go back to 70s
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
November 2018 total - 25.0mm (58mm)
December 2018 total - 107.4mm (125mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 984.8mm (1107mm)

Top
#1411257 - 07/03/2017 21:05 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25337
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
EC and BOM hinting at a low forming off the Townsville on thursday, no intensification at all but might enhance rainfall, already seen Townsville forecast increased from 5mm up to 35mm.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
November 2018 total - 25.0mm (58mm)
December 2018 total - 107.4mm (125mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 984.8mm (1107mm)

Top
#1411262 - 07/03/2017 21:35 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25337
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
guess i should post this as i think its the first time the CS has had anything above 'very low' all season

ropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Tuesday 7 March 2017
for the period until midnight EST Friday 10 March 2017.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

There are currently no significant lows in the Coral Sea. A minority of computer model guidance develops a transient low off the southern tropical coast on Thursday, however the likelihood of this system developing into a tropical cyclone is considered low.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Wednesday:Very Low
Thursday:Low
Friday:Low
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
November 2018 total - 25.0mm (58mm)
December 2018 total - 107.4mm (125mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 984.8mm (1107mm)

Top
#1411323 - 08/03/2017 13:00 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 457
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: Mick10
I didnt get much time on weekend the yeats i went thru failed to bring up a season. Complete records only go back to 70s

http://www.australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/index.html
Scroll down to Historical Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Top
#1411333 - 08/03/2017 13:59 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
KBO Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/01/2015
Posts: 105
Loc: Cairns
Nice link Red Watch,

Having a quick scroll through from 1906/07 until 2016/17, it appears that there has been a TC in the Coral Sea every year to date.
The latest start for the Coral Sea appears to be in 1935 24th May..

Top
#1411341 - 08/03/2017 15:20 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 457
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Didn't we have only Tatiana in the coral sea last year which made it to cat 2 only.


Edited by Red Watch (08/03/2017 15:20)

Top
#1411365 - 08/03/2017 17:11 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
I don't think we will see one at all this year in the coral sea. That being said. The latest sea temp forecast shows the sea temps increasing still.
_________________________
Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

Top
#1411389 - 08/03/2017 19:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: rainthisway]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 220
Originally Posted By: rainthisway
I don't think we will see one at all this year in the coral sea. That being said. The latest sea temp forecast shows the sea temps increasing still.


Totally agree. Have been watching it like a hawk, and there's been some movement in the past 2 to 3 weeks.

Interestingly, the European Model is suggestive of a nice Low up the Cape next weekend and into the Gulf. The 7 day SST modelling shows temp increases up the Cape and into the Gulf as well.

I wonder if we could somehow get Ken in on the conversation re the latest historical Cyclones to enter the Coral Sea from BOM records.

Thanks KBO too, for it's interesting to learn of a TC in May.

Top
#1411395 - 08/03/2017 20:28 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5576
Blair Trewin is probably the best person to answer that MangroveJack since I can't recall when the latest one on record was.

There were one or two TC's out near the northeastern Coral Sea close to midyear recently (the Brisbane TCWC actually had to be activated well outside the official season) which was pretty amazing but I can't remember off-hand the exact month it was (so whether you could call that a late finish or an early start to the season is open to debate).

My understanding is that the further back in time you look at records of TC's in the era before satellites and stricter reporting/classifying methods, the less reliable the records tend to be. Also, some east coast lows were called cyclones which then gave people the impression that they were non-hybrid tropical cyclones.

EC is currently suggesting a belt of vorticity developing across the Coral Sea towards the end of this week and weekend along which one or more small circulations try to spin up. Whenever there's a stretched out belt of vorticity like that, any number of circulations can try to spin up anywhere along it, not necessarily in the exact spots that models put them.

Whether >34kt of sustained wind can wrap more than halfway around any of their centres for long enough to satisfy TC criteria or whether they just stay as weak small lows (or even just a trough) is open to a bit of debate but below is the EC wind map for Fri afternoon anyway:



Top
#1411424 - 09/03/2017 06:57 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Pan Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 10/03/2013
Posts: 30
Loc: Daintree
Thank you Ken, I don't read much here anymore as it seems to me that it is a group of people who lust for a cyclone, most I suspect have never experienced a serious one. A rain event yes bring it on a major cyclone only brings heart ache for humans and "animals" ops humans are animals. But you bring a balanced view so thank you.

Top
#1411425 - 09/03/2017 06:58 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
BrisWeatherNerd Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/07/2012
Posts: 938
Loc: Weather Nerd Central, Everton ...
In 2011-2012 'season' there was a cyclone, unnamed but the records I have accessed indicate it reached Category 1, for a system in the northern Coral Sea that lasted from 27th June to 1st July, 2012.

There was another one, also in the northern Coral Sea and South Pacific region, Raquel, from 24th June to 5th July, 2015.

Cyclones in June/July don't appear frequently but they are certainly not unheard of, although I doubt there would be any that make it very far south or to the coast. Cyclones through April and May, however, are fairly frequent.
_________________________
Sick of waiting for rain in Townsville: moved to Brisbane. And then it rains in Townsville. Oh the sweet irony.



Top
#1411456 - 09/03/2017 12:29 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
I'm still tipping for zero cyclones. As much as I want a cat 1 or 2. It ain't gonna happen.
_________________________
Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

Top
#1411481 - 09/03/2017 16:27 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
No tropical cyclones are expected during the outlook period.



Transient lows may occur in the northern Coral Sea, but conditions are generally unfavourable for tropical cyclone development.


This is the story of the season.
_________________________
Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

Top
#1411485 - 09/03/2017 17:13 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25337
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Weather Situation
A trough over the northwestern Coral Sea will weaken during the remainder of today and Friday. A trough lies through northern Townsville waters and will likely shift northwards through north Queensland waters during Friday and the weekend. A weak low pressure system lies on the trough over offshore Townsville waters and this should shift eastwards into the Coral Sea from Friday though there is some uncertainty associated with the development and movement of this low.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
November 2018 total - 25.0mm (58mm)
December 2018 total - 107.4mm (125mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 984.8mm (1107mm)

Top
#1411498 - 09/03/2017 18:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
That what causing this wonderful rainful.
_________________________
Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

Top
Page 12 of 23 < 1 2 ... 10 11 12 13 14 ... 22 23 >


Who's Online
2 registered (Antarctic Whaler, 1 invisible), 76 Guests and 3 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Clayton
Forum Stats
29700 Members
32 Forums
24026 Topics
1506311 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image