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#1411584 - 10/03/2017 10:59 SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1619
Loc: Uleybury
With the charts agreeing on a complex low pressure system to develop out west and move across the central parts of SA over the weekend.

EC keen for the wrap round and giving us around 30mm for the event.
OCF at 17mm
GFS around 10mm
I'd be happy with 15mm average.

Thunderstorms to be a feature, really of when at this stage as maps say more Sunday but should see some activity later tomorrow (Saturday) before more of the stormy action to be in the eastern parts of the state by Sunday. Should see something within the Adelaide area otherwise would need to head out to catch a piece of the action.

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#1411635 - 10/03/2017 20:22 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
what awesome timing for a change, or should i say something different.
system coming through tomorrow and sunday with monday a
holiday.
things have upgraded nicely.
get a good drink from this lot.
a quick look at gfs shows for rain the s.e. fairs best on
sat and adelaide gets it sunday for a good part of the whole
day.
storms on sat best for lower ep, ki and f. peninsular.
this low is shallow barely getting above 800hpa, steering
winds 700-500 are a lunatic 50+Kts.
if whatever goes up doesn't get sliced and diced will be
turbocharged and on a mission.
for sunday cloud charts show all low level cloud and moisture,
very little middle and a bit of high level cloud.
best pwats are 30mm which under normal circumstances is not
a lot but is misleading in this instance because a lot of it
is concentrated below 800hpa
the bottom line is sunday is looking to be a low level stratus
type rain event with possible embedded rumbles.
actually from what i'm seeing it doesn't look to be chasable.

TH
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#1411643 - 10/03/2017 21:30 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1540
Loc: Bridgewater
hmm, 10-20mm would be nice but i'm not feeling it.

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#1411650 - 10/03/2017 21:54 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
definatley more chance for that up there, the possible 20mm is
for adelaide so the hills is possible x 2 = probable.
with the models in such high agreeance i'd be really taken
aback if you got less than 10 mm.

TH
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#1411662 - 10/03/2017 23:27 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 500
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
I'll clean out the rain-gauge :-)

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#1411667 - 11/03/2017 01:19 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
amen Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/10/2006
Posts: 4
Loc: Robertstown, South Australia
What would anyone estimate in rain falling @ Robertstown 5381 on Sunday - 12/3/17 as we have a lawn bowls tournament commencing @ 1:00 pm?


Edited by amen (11/03/2017 01:23)

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#1411668 - 11/03/2017 05:20 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
that's a hard one to call, models have you on the edge of
bugger all, there's a chance of nothing.
if you got anything be very surprising if you got more than 2mm.
should be a bit windy, winds starting from the west swinging
to the sw as the day goes on.
prog. for cloudcover has backed off a bit, looking at cloudy with sunny breaks.
that's what i see anyway. have a good day.
would appreciate your feedback on how it went after the event please.

prestorm coming across southern ep now heading straight for
southern yp, f. peninsular & ki.
and look at it go, 85kmh.

TH
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#1411670 - 11/03/2017 07:09 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1540
Loc: Bridgewater
im feeling it now!
mainly cause i can see something on the radar, haha

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#1411672 - 11/03/2017 08:06 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
hi RS, the low is progged to go right over you which from
many years of experience tells me that is not a good place
to be for anything significant or exciting as far as weather
goes. on the very odd occasion the centre of a low will deliver
some very nice goods but more often not. gfs has the low with
some good depth now which makes a bit more sense and an upper
cold pool swinging over the low on sunday to give good
instability some models have the coldpool more north than
others. the l.s.e. is on the bottom edge of things, as it
swings up and over the low. southern ep, yp and everything south
and east of pt. wakefield is up for a possible something tomorrow.

more cells firing in the bight and out west now, if they are
going off this soon be interesting to see what a bit of
sunlight can do.

TH
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#1411673 - 11/03/2017 08:19 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
jeeze, just stuck my head out the door, got some crazy scattered
low level fracto stratus doing wierd movements forming and then
getting torn apart in all directions like it's in a blender.
also a few dribbles of rain falling.
main cloudbase looking really good and around 9 maybe 10thou'.

TH
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#1411691 - 11/03/2017 11:41 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: amen]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17456
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Originally Posted By: amen
What would anyone estimate in rain falling @ Robertstown 5381 on Sunday - 12/3/17 as we have a lawn bowls tournament commencing @ 1:00 pm?


Yer I reckon TH is about right. Looks to be on the edge of the heavier stuff so just depends if that gets further north than expected. 2mm would be my guess for you but probably falling around that lunch to early arvo time slot. Won't take much movement north to give you triple that though....

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#1411703 - 11/03/2017 14:53 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6842
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Time to test out a new rain gauge I think smile .
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*Kindness is our ally.

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#1411709 - 11/03/2017 16:50 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Pooley72 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/01/2017
Posts: 31
Loc: Seacliff Park
Few sparks over Western KI at the moment. Heading for the Southeast it would appear.
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#1411714 - 11/03/2017 17:34 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
it's all just smoke and mirrors, or is that fog reflecting off
the water. what a dogs breakfast, ki's the hot spot today,
nothing but a virgafest here and pretty much most elsewhere by
the looks.
with mild temps, overcast conditions, mediocre RH and light to
bugger all wind the total fire ban here is giving me that warm
and fuzzy wtf feeling.
interesting to note at 1am this morning at a temp of 25 the
DP was -3.4/ RH15%, now that's pretty full on for daytime but
at 1am.......i feel another warm and fuzzy flush.

yer your right Teck, because of being on the edge won't take
much to tip either way and have to keep remembering models
are not hard and fast simply a guide to likley possibilities
with the emphasis on 'possibilities'.

TH
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#1411717 - 11/03/2017 17:57 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
for those interested looking at sat there appears to be 2
lows, the obvvious one in the middle of the bight and the
other less obvious south of ki and west of mt. gambier which
near the current batch of sparks there. it also has it's own
little bit of warparound.

TH
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#1411730 - 11/03/2017 19:42 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
liz Offline
Wind Speed Queen

Registered: 02/12/2001
Posts: 1892
Loc: Near Victor Harbor S.A.
"Muffled" thunder - light rain

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#1411740 - 11/03/2017 21:13 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17456
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
just scored a bullseye with a cell moving thru.... one muffled rumble on its approach but teemed down for a bit - should be a couple mm's from it.

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#1411750 - 11/03/2017 22:00 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
got a very short bout of heavyish rain here, barely see it
at the bottom of the guage.
hope this wraparound and upper old pool can deliver some goods.

TH
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#1411779 - 12/03/2017 05:06 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
it seems the 'blob' that has developed down south is the one
to rise to the occasion so to speak, it's basically an
embedded second cold front. it is going to fall off a bit as
it approaches, orographic lift will enhance the works for the
ranges.
absolutely positively definable maybe a possible slight chance
of a rumble. as the front passes winds will swing quickly
from Awsw to Assw sometime around lunch early arvo.
penetration will be shallow and things will fall in a heap
fairly quickly as it moves inland and any rain will disappear
fairly quickly as there is no significant moisture for it to
snack on once it leaves the ocean.



compared to what we've gotten used to this is going to feel
like a blast of winter, but don't be fooled, got another bit
of a half hearted butt roaster coming up on wed. by the looks.
better make the most of that one, could very well be our last
hurrah for summer.

TH
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#1411798 - 12/03/2017 10:18 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17456
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Recorded 4.5mm to 9am and just now another 4.5mm in just 2 mins from a torrential dumper.

Upper trough just coming over now, forcing these cells up with the colder air. Should form a few storms over eastern areas this arvo.
Surface trough comes over afterwards which should give us a period of rain.

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