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#1411584 - 10/03/2017 10:59 SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1649
Loc: Uleybury
With the charts agreeing on a complex low pressure system to develop out west and move across the central parts of SA over the weekend.

EC keen for the wrap round and giving us around 30mm for the event.
OCF at 17mm
GFS around 10mm
I'd be happy with 15mm average.

Thunderstorms to be a feature, really of when at this stage as maps say more Sunday but should see some activity later tomorrow (Saturday) before more of the stormy action to be in the eastern parts of the state by Sunday. Should see something within the Adelaide area otherwise would need to head out to catch a piece of the action.

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#1411635 - 10/03/2017 20:22 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
what awesome timing for a change, or should i say something different.
system coming through tomorrow and sunday with monday a
holiday.
things have upgraded nicely.
get a good drink from this lot.
a quick look at gfs shows for rain the s.e. fairs best on
sat and adelaide gets it sunday for a good part of the whole
day.
storms on sat best for lower ep, ki and f. peninsular.
this low is shallow barely getting above 800hpa, steering
winds 700-500 are a lunatic 50+Kts.
if whatever goes up doesn't get sliced and diced will be
turbocharged and on a mission.
for sunday cloud charts show all low level cloud and moisture,
very little middle and a bit of high level cloud.
best pwats are 30mm which under normal circumstances is not
a lot but is misleading in this instance because a lot of it
is concentrated below 800hpa
the bottom line is sunday is looking to be a low level stratus
type rain event with possible embedded rumbles.
actually from what i'm seeing it doesn't look to be chasable.

TH
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#1411643 - 10/03/2017 21:30 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1615
Loc: Bridgewater
hmm, 10-20mm would be nice but i'm not feeling it.

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#1411650 - 10/03/2017 21:54 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
definatley more chance for that up there, the possible 20mm is
for adelaide so the hills is possible x 2 = probable.
with the models in such high agreeance i'd be really taken
aback if you got less than 10 mm.

TH
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#1411662 - 10/03/2017 23:27 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 596
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
I'll clean out the rain-gauge :-)

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#1411667 - 11/03/2017 01:19 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
amen Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/10/2006
Posts: 4
Loc: Robertstown, South Australia
What would anyone estimate in rain falling @ Robertstown 5381 on Sunday - 12/3/17 as we have a lawn bowls tournament commencing @ 1:00 pm?


Edited by amen (11/03/2017 01:23)

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#1411668 - 11/03/2017 05:20 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
that's a hard one to call, models have you on the edge of
bugger all, there's a chance of nothing.
if you got anything be very surprising if you got more than 2mm.
should be a bit windy, winds starting from the west swinging
to the sw as the day goes on.
prog. for cloudcover has backed off a bit, looking at cloudy with sunny breaks.
that's what i see anyway. have a good day.
would appreciate your feedback on how it went after the event please.

prestorm coming across southern ep now heading straight for
southern yp, f. peninsular & ki.
and look at it go, 85kmh.

TH
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#1411670 - 11/03/2017 07:09 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1615
Loc: Bridgewater
im feeling it now!
mainly cause i can see something on the radar, haha

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#1411672 - 11/03/2017 08:06 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
hi RS, the low is progged to go right over you which from
many years of experience tells me that is not a good place
to be for anything significant or exciting as far as weather
goes. on the very odd occasion the centre of a low will deliver
some very nice goods but more often not. gfs has the low with
some good depth now which makes a bit more sense and an upper
cold pool swinging over the low on sunday to give good
instability some models have the coldpool more north than
others. the l.s.e. is on the bottom edge of things, as it
swings up and over the low. southern ep, yp and everything south
and east of pt. wakefield is up for a possible something tomorrow.

more cells firing in the bight and out west now, if they are
going off this soon be interesting to see what a bit of
sunlight can do.

TH
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#1411673 - 11/03/2017 08:19 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
jeeze, just stuck my head out the door, got some crazy scattered
low level fracto stratus doing wierd movements forming and then
getting torn apart in all directions like it's in a blender.
also a few dribbles of rain falling.
main cloudbase looking really good and around 9 maybe 10thou'.

TH
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#1411691 - 11/03/2017 11:41 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: amen]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17531
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Originally Posted By: amen
What would anyone estimate in rain falling @ Robertstown 5381 on Sunday - 12/3/17 as we have a lawn bowls tournament commencing @ 1:00 pm?


Yer I reckon TH is about right. Looks to be on the edge of the heavier stuff so just depends if that gets further north than expected. 2mm would be my guess for you but probably falling around that lunch to early arvo time slot. Won't take much movement north to give you triple that though....

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#1411703 - 11/03/2017 14:53 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7214
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Time to test out a new rain gauge I think smile .
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Wood for the trees.

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#1411709 - 11/03/2017 16:50 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Pooley72 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/01/2017
Posts: 38
Loc: Seacliff Park
Few sparks over Western KI at the moment. Heading for the Southeast it would appear.
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Dec:
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#1411714 - 11/03/2017 17:34 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
it's all just smoke and mirrors, or is that fog reflecting off
the water. what a dogs breakfast, ki's the hot spot today,
nothing but a virgafest here and pretty much most elsewhere by
the looks.
with mild temps, overcast conditions, mediocre RH and light to
bugger all wind the total fire ban here is giving me that warm
and fuzzy wtf feeling.
interesting to note at 1am this morning at a temp of 25 the
DP was -3.4/ RH15%, now that's pretty full on for daytime but
at 1am.......i feel another warm and fuzzy flush.

yer your right Teck, because of being on the edge won't take
much to tip either way and have to keep remembering models
are not hard and fast simply a guide to likley possibilities
with the emphasis on 'possibilities'.

TH
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#1411717 - 11/03/2017 17:57 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
for those interested looking at sat there appears to be 2
lows, the obvvious one in the middle of the bight and the
other less obvious south of ki and west of mt. gambier which
near the current batch of sparks there. it also has it's own
little bit of warparound.

TH
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#1411730 - 11/03/2017 19:42 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
liz Offline
Wind Speed Queen

Registered: 02/12/2001
Posts: 1902
Loc: Near Victor Harbor S.A.
"Muffled" thunder - light rain

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#1411740 - 11/03/2017 21:13 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17531
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
just scored a bullseye with a cell moving thru.... one muffled rumble on its approach but teemed down for a bit - should be a couple mm's from it.

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#1411750 - 11/03/2017 22:00 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
got a very short bout of heavyish rain here, barely see it
at the bottom of the guage.
hope this wraparound and upper old pool can deliver some goods.

TH
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#1411779 - 12/03/2017 05:06 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
it seems the 'blob' that has developed down south is the one
to rise to the occasion so to speak, it's basically an
embedded second cold front. it is going to fall off a bit as
it approaches, orographic lift will enhance the works for the
ranges.
absolutely positively definable maybe a possible slight chance
of a rumble. as the front passes winds will swing quickly
from Awsw to Assw sometime around lunch early arvo.
penetration will be shallow and things will fall in a heap
fairly quickly as it moves inland and any rain will disappear
fairly quickly as there is no significant moisture for it to
snack on once it leaves the ocean.



compared to what we've gotten used to this is going to feel
like a blast of winter, but don't be fooled, got another bit
of a half hearted butt roaster coming up on wed. by the looks.
better make the most of that one, could very well be our last
hurrah for summer.

TH
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#1411798 - 12/03/2017 10:18 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17531
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Recorded 4.5mm to 9am and just now another 4.5mm in just 2 mins from a torrential dumper.

Upper trough just coming over now, forcing these cells up with the colder air. Should form a few storms over eastern areas this arvo.
Surface trough comes over afterwards which should give us a period of rain.

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#1411819 - 12/03/2017 11:56 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7214
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
7.7 mm since midnight (11:25 am), 0.2 mm to midnight. Maximum rain rate of 4.5 mm/hr today smile in short bursts . Gutters overflowing.
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Wood for the trees.

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#1411825 - 12/03/2017 12:42 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Gone mental east of the ranges, bolts everywhere!!
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"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

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#1411829 - 12/03/2017 12:57 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: amen]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7214
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: amen
What would anyone estimate in rain falling @ Robertstown 5381 on Sunday - 12/3/17 as we have a lawn bowls tournament commencing @ 1:00 pm?



Your latitude and longitude are about:
-33.98 south
+139.08 east right?!

If you can put up with maybe 0.5-1 mm from here till later (today), may be ok, no guarantee though (it won't be more). Hope all goes well anyhow smile .

Edit: think this post may be too late. Oh well.

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#1411832 - 12/03/2017 13:18 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Nice storm looking SE from Noarlunga Beach at midday.

_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

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#1411838 - 12/03/2017 13:48 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Pooley72 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/01/2017
Posts: 38
Loc: Seacliff Park
Well I worked until 0500 today. Was looking forward to waking up to the gentle pitter patter of steady rain but no, a whole 0.6mm as at 1315 and the radar not looking too promising. Father in law at Coonalpyn had had a whole 0.3mm so far. *Disappointed*
_________________________
My PWS: www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=INOARLUN2

Jan: 52.2mm
Feb: 32.8mm
Mar: 28.2mm
Apr: 39.6mm
May: 37.8mm
Jun: 14.4mm
Jul: 107.9mm
Aug: 74.4mm
Sep: 54.9mm
Oct: 24.9mm
Nov: 5.4mm
Dec:
2017: 472.5mm

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#1411860 - 12/03/2017 15:08 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
yer it looked good this morning down south and fragmented as it
approached, the upper coldpool and trough has sustained things
nicely through the use and mallee. penetration inland is better
than i expected too, robertstown had their first big shower around
12:30, a couple of smaller showers and about to get drilled by
another decent one, from the looks of radar if they havn't had it
already i would think they would have had well over their
predicted 2mm after this next shower.
6.4mm here so far

TH
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#1411909 - 12/03/2017 21:16 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Meh Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2016
Posts: 209
All the juicy stuff went to the north and south, only had a 30 second shower here with a couple rumbles and that's it. Look at that line crank over NSW. Another fizzer to add to the list, albeit a mild one. Failwhale fail at life

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#1411913 - 12/03/2017 21:29 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2134
Loc: Clare, SA
Anyone know of any pictures of the storms out east today? Have heard of 15mm at/near Lameroo but can't confirm. Pretty bloody lightning active for the temps, more like a wintery setup but with some relatively warm surface temps, proper hybrid coldies.

Received very little from the first lot of convective stuff up here, 1.5mm but some bloody nice coldie structure on a line to the south around midday, some wall clouds and all.

Showers and drizzle now with the SSW flow, into moderate rates at times, 5.5mm with that = 7mm total for this event. Should see a couple more mm tonight as it's still raining.
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#1411946 - 13/03/2017 05:19 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14871
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
0.6mm in total in Seaford, rather ordinary, had about 5 or 6 sharp showers but they were very short and moving quickly. Pretty disappointing, garden still needs watering, getting a bit desperate now.

TS cool

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#1411947 - 13/03/2017 05:29 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
another huge anomaly in rainfall, noarlunga aws shows 1.6mm, you
got 0.6mm total for this event and my gauge has 10.2mm in it.
that's just plain crazy crazy. i know it has to be right cos a
lot of the time i stood at the back door and watched water drip
in the gauge and go up with each shower.
oh well, my few square meters of lawn are happy anyway.

TH
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#1411962 - 13/03/2017 08:22 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17531
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
yer got lucky here as well compared to other areas nearby. Scored 17mm in total from some enormous dumpers.

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#1411972 - 13/03/2017 09:56 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 596
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
6mm in my gauge this morning.

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#1411980 - 13/03/2017 10:37 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
willitrainagain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 541
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
11mm here

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#1411995 - 13/03/2017 12:50 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1649
Loc: Uleybury
5.2mm at home, 21.8mm MTD, 137YTD

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#1411999 - 13/03/2017 12:58 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
i would imagine the ranges would have been just as hit
and miss as anywhere else.
just been having a look back radar and sat archives, it
seems the concentrated convective nature of these cells
meant they were like lasers cutting through the landscape,
what was looking like a mediocre broad area rain event
ended up with the mix of the surface trough as it went
under the upper cold pool and caused atmospheric flocculation
over here and east of the ranges, 50/50 summer and winter
put together and cooked to perfection.

TH
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#1412020 - 13/03/2017 15:30 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1615
Loc: Bridgewater
15mm here. quite happy with that

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#1412107 - 13/03/2017 21:41 Re: SA Complex Low with Upper Level trough Mar 11-13 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Weather Guru Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2008
Posts: 1641
Loc: Munno Para , Northern Suburb o...
1.8 mm here at home.
BUT
I was down south. Port Elliot to be precise.
Had no rain gauge with me so i hazzard a guess of about 3 - 6 mm grand total down there.
There was intermittent drizzle / mist etc with occasional spotted try hard showers for a lot of the weekend.
Saturday arvo and night there was even some rumbles and booms while i sat in a chair and watched the whole thing whisk away across south and east of GOOLWA.
late saturday night was 3 reasonable showers , enough to make it wet the next morning.
Today ended up being some slight misty drizzle but that was all before i left about 9 am.
driving through one light shower around MOUNT COMPASS on the way home, i was greeted with some sunshine down the WILLUNGA HILL section.
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Jan 44.1 mm
Feb 24.6 mm
Mar 3.6 mm
Apr 44.7 mm
May 39.6 mm
June 14.4 mm
July 73.5 mm
Aug 78.7 mm
Sep 38.8 mm
Oct 19 mm
Nov 21 mm
Dec
2017 YTD 402 mm
2016 571
2015 369.5
2014 460.5
2013 504
2012 417
2011 598.5
2010 553

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