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#1411657 - 10/03/2017 22:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4741
In other news, looks like it should gradually keep getting a bit cooler here next month but probably not as cool as it should be for much of it.

Below are the latest results from 7 of the models calibrated to past forecasts vs observations (doesn't distinguish between whether overnight min temps or daytime max temps will be warmer than normal, or both):



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#1411658 - 10/03/2017 22:24 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6665
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Squeako_88
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Starting to see a southward moving trend for this ECL on EC and Access-G this evening.


Looks like the stronger the low the further south it will go, by tonights runs. GFS on the 00 run had more of a coastal trough with most rainfall around the Capricornia/Wide Bay region. It has shifted a slightly south though on the 06z.

The fun and games of model watching continues. smile


I can only see it shifting south from here...we almost always tend to miss out on the big ECL events this far north.

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#1411663 - 10/03/2017 23:39 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Mega]
Stormwithin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/12/2016
Posts: 134
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: Squeako_88
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Starting to see a southward moving trend for this ECL on EC and Access-G this evening.


Looks like the stronger the low the further south it will go, by tonights runs. GFS on the 00 run had more of a coastal trough with most rainfall around the Capricornia/Wide Bay region. It has shifted a slightly south though on the 06z.

The fun and games of model watching continues. smile


I can only see it shifting south from here...we almost always tend to miss out on the big ECL events this far north.


Best not to count your chickens before they hatch! 1st of May 2015 was a pretty big ECL here in Morayfield.....

Updated WATL:

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#1411664 - 10/03/2017 23:40 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Stormwithin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/12/2016
Posts: 134
Once again Ken....YASSS 😍😍😂😂

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#1411665 - 11/03/2017 00:02 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Stormwithin]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6665
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Stormwithin
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: Squeako_88
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Starting to see a southward moving trend for this ECL on EC and Access-G this evening.


Looks like the stronger the low the further south it will go, by tonights runs. GFS on the 00 run had more of a coastal trough with most rainfall around the Capricornia/Wide Bay region. It has shifted a slightly south though on the 06z.

The fun and games of model watching continues. smile


I can only see it shifting south from here...we almost always tend to miss out on the big ECL events this far north.


Best not to count your chickens before they hatch! 1st of May 2015 was a pretty big ECL here in Morayfield.....



Morayfield is a long way from Maryborough. poke

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#1411671 - 11/03/2017 07:47 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 2956
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Are waters not warm enough up that way to support a warm core?

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#1411676 - 11/03/2017 08:55 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4348
Loc: Wynnum
As an indication of continuing dry weather locally, many Jacaranda trees are flowering again in the Wynnum-Manly area - one in the Manly shopping centre and another on Whites Road close to full bloom.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2017-Jan107.6(158),Feb24.4(149),Mar410.2(123),Apr8.8(98),May32.2(101),Jun91.4(75),Jul16.6(57),Aug6.4(45),Sep4.2(33),Oct217.4(93),Nov121.4,(109),Dec42.8(131)YTD1083.6(1174),

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#1411679 - 11/03/2017 09:19 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Stormwalker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/11/2013
Posts: 63
Already WATL is pushing further East with the heavy rains. I expect this will be a repeat of last time where all the rain falls in the ocean.

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#1411681 - 11/03/2017 09:35 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1468
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Yeah too far out for me to get excited. Models as stormy said pushing it further east with no impact. But this can change in the next 2 days ( I say that in hope ) but at the moment i would say 30% chance of that smile
_________________________
If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1411685 - 11/03/2017 10:33 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Mega]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 411
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: Squeako_88
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Starting to see a southward moving trend for this ECL on EC and Access-G this evening.


Looks like the stronger the low the further south it will go, by tonights runs. GFS on the 00 run had more of a coastal trough with most rainfall around the Capricornia/Wide Bay region. It has shifted a slightly south though on the 06z.

The fun and games of model watching continues. smile


I can only see it shifting south from here...we almost always tend to miss out on the big ECL events this far north.


Well the models going away from any dominant low except for access and more coastal troughing. Which will be better for more widespread showers/rain then concentrated in a small area. The positioning of the upper low being more to the NW looks like in a good area to drag in moisture from the the coral sea onto the coast.
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Records are MEANT to be broken.

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#1411695 - 11/03/2017 12:05 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Taylsy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2007
Posts: 1230
Loc: Pacific Pines, Gold Coast
I have started a new thread for this period of unsettled weather => click here
_________________________
Between the bush and the beach.
2017 YTD: 885 mm; 2016: 812 mm; 2015: 1,932 mm; 2014: 943 mm; 2013: 1,501 mm; 2012 1,682 mm; 2011 1,032 mm; 2010 2,151 mm; 2009 1,447 mm.

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#1411734 - 11/03/2017 20:14 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1468
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
The BOM forecast policy ensures they can never get it wrong again. For tomorrow:

Brisbane:
Partly cloudy. Possible rainfall: 0 mm Chance of any rain: 20%

Throw 20% at the end to capture anything that might fall smile
_________________________
If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1411735 - 11/03/2017 20:26 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6665
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I agree, that forecast makes no sense.

How can you have a 20% chance of rainfall then go on to say the rainfall if it were to occur, would equate to 0mm? It rained didn't it? Unless they mean a trace?

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#1411736 - 11/03/2017 20:36 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1468
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
I won't even go on about what they say on the right hand side of the forecast. But i think that is part of the 20% Arse covering, pardon my french
_________________________
If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1411738 - 11/03/2017 20:46 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4741
Would you rather not know about any small but realistic chance of a shower or storm at all then?
I know I would.

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#1411739 - 11/03/2017 20:47 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6665
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
But wouldn't a shower or storm likely carry with it, rainfall? That forecast just says 0.0mm...if that 20% chance of rain WAS to happen.

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#1411741 - 11/03/2017 21:17 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Stormwithin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/12/2016
Posts: 134
Seriously, this has gone on too long! 80% chance there won't be rain, 20% chance there will. So chances are pretty high of getting 0mm. Now I know they teach percentages at school....so did you all skip class??


Edited by Stormwithin (11/03/2017 21:17)

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#1411743 - 11/03/2017 21:20 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Stormwithin]
Bone Dry Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2017
Posts: 81
Loc: Wolvi
The point is;

80% no rain is the dominant forecast.

For those who need the rain for more than a green lawn, that's what we need to see.
_________________________
Guaranteed weather forecast for tonight: Dark.

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#1411744 - 11/03/2017 21:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Stormwithin]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6665
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Stormwithin
Seriously, this has gone on too long! 80% chance there won't be rain, 20% chance there will. So chances are pretty high of getting 0mm. Now I know they teach percentages at school....so did you all skip class??


Missed the point. If that 20% chance of rainfall was to happen, how the hell could it drop 0mm, like it says on that forecast?

"Possible rainfall: 0 mm".

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#1411745 - 11/03/2017 21:30 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Mega]
wet sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/10/2015
Posts: 628
Loc: NENSW-Wet Subtropics
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: Stormwithin
Seriously, this has gone on too long! 80% chance there won't be rain, 20% chance there will. So chances are pretty high of getting 0mm. Now I know they teach percentages at school....so did you all skip class??


Missed the point. If that 20% chance of rainfall was to happen, how the hell could it drop 0mm, like it says on that forecast?

"Possible rainfall: 0 mm".


20% chance of any rain
less than 50% chance of 0mm
less than 25% chance of 0mm.

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