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#1413280 - 19/03/2017 00:07 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5764
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a nice hot, dry, sunny 32.5C here in Belgrave yesterday (Saturday). Perfect! grin

Had a cooling breeze to make conditions a little more comfortable, but otherwise a great one for being outside, especially in Menzies Creek and Emerald around lunchtime. smile

Still lovely outside, currently around 20C with virtually no wind. smile

Loving Melbourne's latest forecast!! A sight for sore eyes, a dream come true... well almost! I'll believe it when I see it actually happen, since we haven't really had a major rain/storm event here since the cold blast last February. The extended hot, dry spells before the cold outbreak worked to our advantage, as the "bay effect" was kinda on steroids lol. smile

Forecast for Melbourne...

Sunday:

16-32C - Sunny

Sunny. Winds northwest to northeasterly 10 to 20 km/h becoming light in the middle of the day then becoming south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the late afternoon.

Monday:

20-28C - Humid. Showers. Possible storms.

Humid. Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. The chance of thunderstorms with possible heavy falls. Light winds becoming north to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the early afternoon.

Possible rainfall: 4-15mm

Tuesday:

20-25C - Humid. Showers. Possible storms.

Humid. Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. The chance of thunderstorms. Heavy falls possible. Light winds becoming south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the evening.

Possible rainfall: 5-20mm


To avoid getting my hopes up, I'm guessing I'll collect a mere 5-10mm, but I'll be very happy if I am proven wrong and get as much as double or even triple that range (or more). Send 'er down, Hughie! And bring the storm action too please, I want to get the adrenaline pumping, and the camera busy!! =D




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#1413310 - 19/03/2017 08:37 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1763
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Conflicting models as usual, going with ACCESS best rains for north Gippsland likely to be late Tuesday into Wednesday, not confident of good falls although GFS this morn. shows us good for 25mm, EC similiar.

With <40mm for the year rain will be handy.

The cooler air with the rain will linger till the end of next week (ACCESS) as we settle gracefully (hoping) into some beautiful settled APRIL weather.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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#1413328 - 19/03/2017 10:03 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5764
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 16.3C, currently around 25C and sunny. smile

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#1413369 - 19/03/2017 13:13 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Gabby Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/03/2002
Posts: 2845
Loc: Yarrawonga/Mulwala on the Murr...
Originally Posted By: Petros
Looking back 3 days ago to the thread start, the actual conditions now continue to support the chance of decent rain for areas of Vic into next week.

We have plenty of moisture plumming into Aus interior heading west from NSW's coastal rain event presently underway, the cold air IS heading up into SW WA as GFS predicted all those days ago:

Current SatIR:


Current BOM MSLP:


....and what GFS currently thinks is a possible outcome into next week:


The chances of "bringing some of that rain down from NSW" still look possible next week IMO.








Thanks Petros Good to see some discussion and guidance on the topic of this thread which is the expected rain and possible thunderstorms Monday to Wednesday. Fingers are crossed for this to eventuate as rain is now much needed up this way.

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#1413419 - 19/03/2017 16:38 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 994
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Hot today 33c atm!!

Really craving some wet stuff to fall
Our way and for all of Victoria hopefully
Over the next few days??

Gfs looks ok on this arvo run😀
Hard to pick these type of events?!

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#1413473 - 19/03/2017 20:14 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6104
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
BUMP! Really impressive rain event possible. multi day event which is the best bit even if just getting a bit each day. Going to be quite heavy totals somewhere in central 3rd of the state and then lingering showers out east afterwards. Excited after a month to date total of 3.7mm
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Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1413484 - 19/03/2017 20:57 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 304
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
For Melbourne Area Sunday-Thursday
GFS 30-50mm
GEM 10-20 mm East, 20-40mm West
EC 25-40mm
WATL (Combination of models) 20-45mm

Looks better for the west on most models. My guess for the Melbourne AWS in this period would be approx 25mm. Overall, gonna be a great soaker for Melbourne and most of Victoria. Mostly dry in Far East Gippsland and the Far North West.
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#1413489 - 19/03/2017 21:26 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5764
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a hot, dry, hazy but sunny 36.4C here in Belgrave this arvo, with a nice breeze once again. A balmy, calm night atm, currently around 24C. smile

The models and charts are now finally falling more-or-less in-line for hopefully an EPIC rain event and storm outbreak across Victoria! The trough is shifting south from Queensland into NSW/ACT on satellite, so I'd expect showers and thunderstorms to start developing across the Northern Plains and Northeast early tomorrow morning and then spread southwards as the day progresses! smile

BSCH GFS wants to deliver as much as 50mm of rain across much of Melbourne over the coming three days! Wow!!! =D

Hope this link works...

http://stormcast.com.au/raincast.html?ops=gfs:2017031900:0:72:vic:nul

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#1413495 - 19/03/2017 22:57 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2247
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Lovely late summer for Victoria and humidity next some rain we needed it, no cold blast yet.

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#1413501 - 20/03/2017 06:47 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1105
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
Looking at the radar it is coming in behind that force field. Force field always picks up anything coming from West to Northwest as it is placed in Laverton
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26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

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#1413507 - 20/03/2017 07:30 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5764
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 19.9C, currently around 23C. Humid and cloudy. First round of stormy weather is about to arrive from the north, so no wonder it's still dark outside! smile

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#1413513 - 20/03/2017 08:02 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6104
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
LOL, frustrating start. Twenty drops or so here, band becoming quite heavy to my south so have missed this lot. Slow moving too so going to really get some event totals kicked off solidly in a few places
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Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1413522 - 20/03/2017 08:47 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1763
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
BOM says for home - "Possible rainfall: 6 to 20 mm Chance of any rain: 95%"

Hoping we get some, don't see 95% quoted to often !!

Looking at ACCESS this morning we might do better than the 1mm>2mm Met Officer report from East Sale RAAF on local ABC this morning.

Good to see central NSW getting some good rain.

Calm, dark cloud, no rain here at the mo', radar has showers close by and closing on Maffra from the N.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept22.5mmto0800 17/9.(YTD <200mm)

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#1413524 - 20/03/2017 09:02 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
vjknight Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2012
Posts: 182
Loc: AscotVale, Inner NW Melb
just started raining here in 'bay effect' central.
light and steady. stay all day please.

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#1413525 - 20/03/2017 09:18 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
DVC Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/11/2011
Posts: 269
Loc: Abbotsford, Victoria
Finally some precipitation, drizzle then fine rain, feels strange for end March warm humid and northerly moisture. Had to laugh when the band of rain I've been watching from the north since around 6am started splitting and heading west of town ... grateful for small mercies.
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#1413532 - 20/03/2017 09:26 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1105
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
The forecast I got sent to my phone from the weatherzone app promised Thunderstorm today and tomorrow! Ot did provide a lot of comic relief, I haven't laughed so much in a while.
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

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#1413538 - 20/03/2017 09:48 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2247
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
3mm this morning and clear in North as clouds heading down to Melbourne areas...

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#1413556 - 20/03/2017 11:49 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6104
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
We have cracked a mm, just watching the visible satellite for any signs of life over northern VIC.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1413571 - 20/03/2017 13:20 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6104
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
25/20 with cu everywhere. Now please let it be lifted sufficiently to add to my 1.4mm.

Melbourne sounding not updated on BOM site when others have - was keen to see but I guess with rain at the time of the sounding probably not that good a reading anyway. One right now would be interesting.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1413580 - 20/03/2017 13:56 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Gabby Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/03/2002
Posts: 2845
Loc: Yarrawonga/Mulwala on the Murr...
Black cloud all around, small amounts of instability can be seen on BoM radar. No rain yet. DP 18.8 and RH 47%

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