Reached a nice hot, dry, sunny 32.5°C here in Belgrave yesterday (Saturday). Perfect!

Had a cooling breeze to make conditions a little more comfortable, but otherwise a great one for being outside, especially in Menzies Creek and Emerald around lunchtime.

Still lovely outside, currently around 20°C with virtually no wind.

Loving Melbourne's latest forecast!! A sight for sore eyes, a dream come true... well almost! I'll believe it when I see it actually happen, since we haven't really had a major rain/storm event here since the cold blast last February. The extended hot, dry spells before the cold outbreak worked to our advantage, as the "bay effect" was kinda on steroids lol.

Forecast for Melbourne...

Sunday:

16-32°C - Sunny

Sunny. Winds northwest to northeasterly 10 to 20 km/h becoming light in the middle of the day then becoming south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the late afternoon.

Monday:

20-28°C - Humid. Showers. Possible storms.

Humid. Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. The chance of thunderstorms with possible heavy falls. Light winds becoming north to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the early afternoon.

Possible rainfall: 4-15mm

Tuesday:

20-25°C - Humid. Showers. Possible storms.

Humid. Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. The chance of thunderstorms. Heavy falls possible. Light winds becoming south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the evening.

Possible rainfall: 5-20mm


To avoid getting my hopes up, I'm guessing I'll collect a mere 5-10mm, but I'll be very happy if I am proven wrong and get as much as double or even triple that range (or more). Send 'er down, Hughie! And bring the storm action too please, I want to get the adrenaline pumping, and the camera busy!! =D

Conflicting models as usual, going with ACCESS best rains for north Gippsland likely to be late Tuesday into Wednesday, not confident of good falls although GFS this morn. shows us good for 25mm, EC similiar.

With <40mm for the year rain will be handy.

The cooler air with the rain will linger till the end of next week (ACCESS) as we settle gracefully (hoping) into some beautiful settled APRIL weather.

Overnight low of 16.3°C, currently around 25°C and sunny.

Thanks Petros Good to see some discussion and guidance on the topic of this thread which is the expected rain and possible thunderstorms Monday to Wednesday. Fingers are crossed for this to eventuate as rain is now much needed up this way.

Hot today 33c atm!!

Really craving some wet stuff to fall
Our way and for all of Victoria hopefully
Over the next few days??

Gfs looks ok on this arvo run😀
Hard to pick these type of events?!

BUMP! Really impressive rain event possible. multi day event which is the best bit even if just getting a bit each day. Going to be quite heavy totals somewhere in central 3rd of the state and then lingering showers out east afterwards. Excited after a month to date total of 3.7mm

For Melbourne Area Sunday-Thursday
GFS 30-50mm
GEM 10-20 mm East, 20-40mm West
EC 25-40mm
WATL (Combination of models) 20-45mm

Looks better for the west on most models. My guess for the Melbourne AWS in this period would be approx 25mm. Overall, gonna be a great soaker for Melbourne and most of Victoria. Mostly dry in Far East Gippsland and the Far North West.

Reached a hot, dry, hazy but sunny 36.4°C here in Belgrave this arvo, with a nice breeze once again. A balmy, calm night atm, currently around 24°C.

The models and charts are now finally falling more-or-less in-line for hopefully an EPIC rain event and storm outbreak across Victoria! The trough is shifting south from Queensland into NSW/ACT on satellite, so I'd expect showers and thunderstorms to start developing across the Northern Plains and Northeast early tomorrow morning and then spread southwards as the day progresses!

BSCH GFS wants to deliver as much as 50mm of rain across much of Melbourne over the coming three days! Wow!!! =D

Hope this link works...

http://stormcast.com.au/raincast.html?ops=gfs:2017031900:0:72:vic:nul

Lovely late summer for Victoria and humidity next some rain we needed it, no cold blast yet.

Looking at the radar it is coming in behind that force field. Force field always picks up anything coming from West to Northwest as it is placed in Laverton

Overnight low of 19.9°C, currently around 23°C. Humid and cloudy. First round of stormy weather is about to arrive from the north, so no wonder it's still dark outside!

LOL, frustrating start. Twenty drops or so here, band becoming quite heavy to my south so have missed this lot. Slow moving too so going to really get some event totals kicked off solidly in a few places

BOM says for home - "Possible rainfall: 6 to 20 mm Chance of any rain: 95%"

Hoping we get some, don't see 95% quoted to often !!

Looking at ACCESS this morning we might do better than the 1mm>2mm Met Officer report from East Sale RAAF on local ABC this morning.

Good to see central NSW getting some good rain.

Calm, dark cloud, no rain here at the mo', radar has showers close by and closing on Maffra from the N.

just started raining here in 'bay effect' central.
light and steady. stay all day please.

Finally some precipitation, drizzle then fine rain, feels strange for end March warm humid and northerly moisture. Had to laugh when the band of rain I've been watching from the north since around 6am started splitting and heading west of town ... grateful for small mercies.

The forecast I got sent to my phone from the weatherzone app promised Thunderstorm today and tomorrow! Ot did provide a lot of comic relief, I haven't laughed so much in a while.

3mm this morning and clear in North as clouds heading down to Melbourne areas...

We have cracked a mm, just watching the visible satellite for any signs of life over northern VIC.

25/20 with cu everywhere. Now please let it be lifted sufficiently to add to my 1.4mm.

Melbourne sounding not updated on BOM site when others have - was keen to see but I guess with rain at the time of the sounding probably not that good a reading anyway. One right now would be interesting.

Black cloud all around, small amounts of instability can be seen on BoM radar. No rain yet. DP 18.8 and RH 47%