#1413280 - 19/03/2017 00:07
Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017??
[Re: Petros]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6006
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
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Reached a nice hot, dry, sunny 32.5°C here in Belgrave yesterday (Saturday). Perfect!  Had a cooling breeze to make conditions a little more comfortable, but otherwise a great one for being outside, especially in Menzies Creek and Emerald around lunchtime.  Still lovely outside, currently around 20°C with virtually no wind.  Loving Melbourne's latest forecast!! A sight for sore eyes, a dream come true... well almost! I'll believe it when I see it actually happen, since we haven't really had a major rain/storm event here since the cold blast last February. The extended hot, dry spells before the cold outbreak worked to our advantage, as the "bay effect" was kinda on steroids lol.  Forecast for Melbourne... Sunday: 16-32°C - Sunny Sunny. Winds northwest to northeasterly 10 to 20 km/h becoming light in the middle of the day then becoming south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the late afternoon. Monday: 20-28°C - Humid. Showers. Possible storms. Humid. Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. The chance of thunderstorms with possible heavy falls. Light winds becoming north to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the early afternoon. Possible rainfall: 4-15mm Tuesday: 20-25°C - Humid. Showers. Possible storms. Humid. Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. The chance of thunderstorms. Heavy falls possible. Light winds becoming south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the evening. Possible rainfall: 5-20mm To avoid getting my hopes up, I'm guessing I'll collect a mere 5-10mm, but I'll be very happy if I am proven wrong and get as much as double or even triple that range (or more). Send 'er down, Hughie! And bring the storm action too please, I want to get the adrenaline pumping, and the camera busy!! =D
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#1413310 - 19/03/2017 08:37
Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017??
[Re: Petros]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1939
Loc: Sale, NthGippsland, S/E VIC
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Conflicting models as usual, going with ACCESS best rains for north Gippsland likely to be late Tuesday into Wednesday, not confident of good falls although GFS this morn. shows us good for 25mm, EC similiar.
With <40mm for the year rain will be handy.
The cooler air with the rain will linger till the end of next week (ACCESS) as we settle gracefully (hoping) into some beautiful settled APRIL weather.
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2018 RAINFALL. JAN 53.4MM FEB 14MM MARCH 18MM APRIL- 7mm
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#1413369 - 19/03/2017 13:13
Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017??
[Re: Petros]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 23/03/2002
Posts: 2851
Loc: Yarrawonga/Mulwala on the Murr...
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Looking back 3 days ago to the thread start, the actual conditions now continue to support the chance of decent rain for areas of Vic into next week. We have plenty of moisture plumming into Aus interior heading west from NSW's coastal rain event presently underway, the cold air IS heading up into SW WA as GFS predicted all those days ago: Current SatIR:
Current BOM MSLP:
....and what GFS currently thinks is a possible outcome into next week:
The chances of "bringing some of that rain down from NSW" still look possible next week IMO. Thanks Petros Good to see some discussion and guidance on the topic of this thread which is the expected rain and possible thunderstorms Monday to Wednesday. Fingers are crossed for this to eventuate as rain is now much needed up this way.
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#1413419 - 19/03/2017 16:38
Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017??
[Re: Petros]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1236
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
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Hot today 33c atm!!
Really craving some wet stuff to fall Our way and for all of Victoria hopefully Over the next few days??
Gfs looks ok on this arvo run😀 Hard to pick these type of events?!
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#1413484 - 19/03/2017 20:57
Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017??
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 317
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
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For Melbourne Area Sunday-Thursday GFS 30-50mm GEM 10-20 mm East, 20-40mm West EC 25-40mm WATL (Combination of models) 20-45mm
Looks better for the west on most models. My guess for the Melbourne AWS in this period would be approx 25mm. Overall, gonna be a great soaker for Melbourne and most of Victoria. Mostly dry in Far East Gippsland and the Far North West.
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#1413489 - 19/03/2017 21:26
Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017??
[Re: Petros]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6006
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
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Reached a hot, dry, hazy but sunny 36.4°C here in Belgrave this arvo, with a nice breeze once again. A balmy, calm night atm, currently around 24°C.  The models and charts are now finally falling more-or-less in-line for hopefully an EPIC rain event and storm outbreak across Victoria! The trough is shifting south from Queensland into NSW/ACT on satellite, so I'd expect showers and thunderstorms to start developing across the Northern Plains and Northeast early tomorrow morning and then spread southwards as the day progresses!  BSCH GFS wants to deliver as much as 50mm of rain across much of Melbourne over the coming three days! Wow!!! =D Hope this link works... http://stormcast.com.au/raincast.html?ops=gfs:2017031900:0:72:vic:nul
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#1413495 - 19/03/2017 22:57
Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017??
[Re: Petros]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
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Lovely late summer for Victoria and humidity next some rain we needed it, no cold blast yet.
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#1413501 - 20/03/2017 06:47
Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017??
[Re: Petros]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1139
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
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Looking at the radar it is coming in behind that force field. Force field always picks up anything coming from West to Northwest as it is placed in Laverton
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)
Top 11 Storms in chronological order.
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#1413522 - 20/03/2017 08:47
Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017??
[Re: Petros]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1939
Loc: Sale, NthGippsland, S/E VIC
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BOM says for home - "Possible rainfall: 6 to 20 mm Chance of any rain: 95%"
Hoping we get some, don't see 95% quoted to often !!
Looking at ACCESS this morning we might do better than the 1mm>2mm Met Officer report from East Sale RAAF on local ABC this morning.
Good to see central NSW getting some good rain.
Calm, dark cloud, no rain here at the mo', radar has showers close by and closing on Maffra from the N.
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2018 RAINFALL. JAN 53.4MM FEB 14MM MARCH 18MM APRIL- 7mm
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#1413524 - 20/03/2017 09:02
Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017??
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 20/12/2012
Posts: 193
Loc: AscotVale, Inner NW Melb
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just started raining here in 'bay effect' central. light and steady. stay all day please.
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#1413525 - 20/03/2017 09:18
Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017??
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 14/11/2011
Posts: 339
Loc: Goulburn NSW
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Finally some precipitation, drizzle then fine rain, feels strange for end March warm humid and northerly moisture. Had to laugh when the band of rain I've been watching from the north since around 6am started splitting and heading west of town ... grateful for small mercies.
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DVC
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#1413532 - 20/03/2017 09:26
Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017??
[Re: Petros]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1139
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
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The forecast I got sent to my phone from the weatherzone app promised Thunderstorm today and tomorrow! Ot did provide a lot of comic relief, I haven't laughed so much in a while.
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)
Top 11 Storms in chronological order.
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#1413538 - 20/03/2017 09:48
Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017??
[Re: Petros]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
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3mm this morning and clear in North as clouds heading down to Melbourne areas...
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