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#1412608 - 15/03/2017 18:19 Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017??
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6369
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
The current GFS run is mooting a cut-off low to influence Vic during next week.

A cold SM air surge into coastal SE WA over the weekend looks to be trapped/cut-off in the upper bight by a rapidly extending high pressure ridge over S WA later in the weekend coming. This cold pool is progged to travel over to Vic over coming days and perhaps trigger a cut-off low system over Vic next Tue-Fri??

Worth watching IMO:


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#1412625 - 15/03/2017 19:47 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 895
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Thanks for the tread Petros 😀

I'll take those charts and run away right
Now thanks!! Lol

That's showing 20-40mm for my area
I'll gladly except

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#1412631 - 15/03/2017 20:07 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1484
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Looked at EC and GFS 16 day this morning, GFS looked good and EC is now onboard with about 44mm next week.

However, this rain may/may not fall/not fall or appear/not appear as is the habit of early exciting
forecasts......

cool

Be incredibly handy around here, let 'er rip huey!!!
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April-40mm. May-9mm to 0900 29th.

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#1412686 - 16/03/2017 10:13 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: samboz]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 263
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
44mm on EC??? What location are you getting your forecasts for?
_________________________
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http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au
Just ask, I'm more than happy to provide.

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#1412705 - 16/03/2017 11:55 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1484
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
G'day Snowy, must reiterate that this far out its in the realms of fiction as far as I'm concerned.........

However it does give some support to other models so maybe shouldn't be dismissed out of hand.

I'll believe it when it's in the gauge.

https://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Victoria/Boisdale/long.html

Matlock looking OK, just don't bank on it grin

https://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Victoria/Matlock/long.html

Light rain here as I type, the major part of the front hasn't got here yet.


Edited by samboz (16/03/2017 11:59)
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April-40mm. May-9mm to 0900 29th.

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#1412720 - 16/03/2017 12:46 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Weather_Viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 249
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
2.3mm this morning here in Tarneit, storms this arvo would be icing on the cake.

My Wunderground forecast for my locality is stating 16mm for Monday, 13mm for Tuesday... I'd be happy with that grin
Looks like it's back to Summer again next weekend though... Could be warmish for the F1 race!
_________________________
Wunderground

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#1412757 - 16/03/2017 15:24 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1103
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
Yet again, another fail!
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

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#1412779 - 16/03/2017 17:15 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 895
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yeah no measurable rain here either, just a few
Spits that half wet the ground if that!!

Really getting desperate here now like
A lot of others!

Made the mistake of getting to excited this
Morning seeing that rain band coming through
Melb and heading straight for us, but it disiniagrated
Before Warragul !!

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#1412786 - 16/03/2017 17:42 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1484
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Didn't wet the bottom of the gauge, cooled down though and some gusty S/W winds with the front.
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April-40mm. May-9mm to 0900 29th.

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#1412799 - 16/03/2017 18:36 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6369
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest GFS for this thread - still mooting dampness for Vic next week:


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#1412814 - 16/03/2017 19:26 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5647
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Hi gang! I'm back in Melbourne, having returned from Canberra on Tuesday night. smile

It dipped to 15.2C here in Belgrave last Friday morning, reaching 21.3C before I switched the weather station off around 9:30am prior to leaving for NSW/ACT.

Yesterday it ranged from 20.5C to 36.7C. A hot, dry, mostly sunny day with increasing high cloud and a bit of a breeze at times. Only other things worth mentioning was a "halo" around the Sun, and a small bushfire to our southwest in the Lysterfield Park area.

As for today, I missed what I heard was a beautiful sunrise! Bummer. frown

But we had a nice burst of heavy rain this morning, with 2.1mm collected in the 24 hours to 9am. The most we've had this month, not much but better than none! Peak rainfall rate was 6.9mm/hr btw. smile

Sadly no thunderstorms. frown

It was breezy at times, until the change hit around lunchtime. Following the rainband, we had some sunny periods. Then a hideous low overcast swept in and kept the temperature in check; no further rain though, and it's been cool and calm! Blue sky have been making a few brief appearances over the last half an hour. poke

Today's "high" was 26.8C at about 1am (so a hot night), and the "low" was 19.8C just after 9am. It edged back towards 22C after the rainband, but this overcast and the associated cooler air has kept the temperature below 20C from lunchtime onwards, and it's been gradually dropping... but oh so gradually! Only around 18C atm. Weird weather! crazy


Edited by aussiestormfreak (16/03/2017 19:27)

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#1412823 - 16/03/2017 19:56 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: samboz]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 263
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: samboz
G'day Snowy, must reiterate that this far out its in the realms of fiction as far as I'm concerned.........

However it does give some support to other models so maybe shouldn't be dismissed out of hand.

I'll believe it when it's in the gauge.

https://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Victoria/Boisdale/long.html

Matlock looking OK, just don't bank on it grin

https://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Victoria/Matlock/long.html

Light rain here as I type, the major part of the front hasn't got here yet.

G'day to you too samboz
Sorry I'm looking at the EC ensembles. You are right about the lack of confidence, I just can't see totals that high. Cheers
_________________________
Long term forecaster
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au
Just ask, I'm more than happy to provide.

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#1412826 - 16/03/2017 20:07 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1484
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
They change so often Snowy!! - a check of the Boisdale/Matlock sites at 1155hrs today would have been relevant to the post figures at that time.

Hence - "must reiterate that this far out its in the realms of fiction as far as I'm concerned........"

The rainfall figures are much less now, that at 1155hrs today on EC.
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April-40mm. May-9mm to 0900 29th.

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#1412927 - 17/03/2017 12:18 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5647
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 12.2C, currently around 19C and sunny. smile

I forgot to mention that I collected an additional 1mm of rain just after 9am yesterday. smile

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#1412950 - 17/03/2017 15:36 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2178
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Its worry as its El Nio WATCH means that there is approximately a 50% chance of El Nio developing in 2017, which is about twice the normal likelihood by BOM..

Lovey warm 30c and nice cool overnight.

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#1413028 - 17/03/2017 20:57 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5647
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a lovely, warm 26.5C here in Belgrave today, with virtually clear skies and plenty of sunshine! A nice, cooling breeze to take the heat out of the Sun btw. smile

Gonna be another chilly night, currently around 18C.

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#1413094 - 18/03/2017 10:32 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5647
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 10.9C, currently around 20C and sunny. smile


Edited by aussiestormfreak (18/03/2017 10:39)

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#1413104 - 18/03/2017 11:05 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 263
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
On EC, current totals in the Melbourne Area are about 50mm, with some areas in the west of Melbourne receiving up to 80mm.

Western Victoria averages around 20-30mm and Eastern Victoria, particularly in the ranges, receives 30-50mm.
_________________________
Long term forecaster
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au
Just ask, I'm more than happy to provide.

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#1413128 - 18/03/2017 13:23 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2178
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Snowy Hibbo, I hope so good rains in coming days.

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#1413194 - 18/03/2017 18:15 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6369
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Looking back 3 days ago to the thread start, the actual conditions now continue to support the chance of decent rain for areas of Vic into next week.

We have plenty of moisture plumming into Aus interior heading west from NSW's coastal rain event presently underway, the cold air IS heading up into SW WA as GFS predicted all those days ago:

Current SatIR:


Current BOM MSLP:


....and what GFS currently thinks is a possible outcome into next week:


The chances of "bringing some of that rain down from NSW" still look possible next week IMO.









Edited by Petros (18/03/2017 18:16)

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