Page 1 of 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 >
Topic Options
#1412608 - 15/03/2017 18:19 Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017??
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6309
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
The current GFS run is mooting a cut-off low to influence Vic during next week.

A cold SM air surge into coastal SE WA over the weekend looks to be trapped/cut-off in the upper bight by a rapidly extending high pressure ridge over S WA later in the weekend coming. This cold pool is progged to travel over to Vic over coming days and perhaps trigger a cut-off low system over Vic next Tue-Fri??

Worth watching IMO:


Top
#1412625 - 15/03/2017 19:47 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 867
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Thanks for the tread Petros 😀

I'll take those charts and run away right
Now thanks!! Lol

That's showing 20-40mm for my area
I'll gladly except

Top
#1412631 - 15/03/2017 20:07 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1378
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Looked at EC and GFS 16 day this morning, GFS looked good and EC is now onboard with about 44mm next week.

However, this rain may/may not fall/not fall or appear/not appear as is the habit of early exciting
forecasts......

cool

Be incredibly handy around here, let 'er rip huey!!!
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March - 49mm to 0900 30th.

Top
#1412686 - 16/03/2017 10:13 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: samboz]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 157
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
44mm on EC??? What location are you getting your forecasts for?
_________________________
Long term forecaster
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au
Just ask, I'm more than happy to provide.

Top
#1412705 - 16/03/2017 11:55 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1378
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
G'day Snowy, must reiterate that this far out its in the realms of fiction as far as I'm concerned.........

However it does give some support to other models so maybe shouldn't be dismissed out of hand.

I'll believe it when it's in the gauge.

https://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Victoria/Boisdale/long.html

Matlock looking OK, just don't bank on it grin

https://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Victoria/Matlock/long.html

Light rain here as I type, the major part of the front hasn't got here yet.


Edited by samboz (16/03/2017 11:59)
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March - 49mm to 0900 30th.

Top
#1412720 - 16/03/2017 12:46 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Weather_Viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 248
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
2.3mm this morning here in Tarneit, storms this arvo would be icing on the cake.

My Wunderground forecast for my locality is stating 16mm for Monday, 13mm for Tuesday... I'd be happy with that grin
Looks like it's back to Summer again next weekend though... Could be warmish for the F1 race!
_________________________
Wunderground

Top
#1412757 - 16/03/2017 15:24 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1099
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
Yet again, another fail!
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

Top
#1412779 - 16/03/2017 17:15 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 867
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yeah no measurable rain here either, just a few
Spits that half wet the ground if that!!

Really getting desperate here now like
A lot of others!

Made the mistake of getting to excited this
Morning seeing that rain band coming through
Melb and heading straight for us, but it disiniagrated
Before Warragul !!

Top
#1412786 - 16/03/2017 17:42 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1378
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Didn't wet the bottom of the gauge, cooled down though and some gusty S/W winds with the front.
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March - 49mm to 0900 30th.

Top
#1412799 - 16/03/2017 18:36 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6309
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest GFS for this thread - still mooting dampness for Vic next week:


Top
#1412814 - 16/03/2017 19:26 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5532
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Hi gang! I'm back in Melbourne, having returned from Canberra on Tuesday night. smile

It dipped to 15.2C here in Belgrave last Friday morning, reaching 21.3C before I switched the weather station off around 9:30am prior to leaving for NSW/ACT.

Yesterday it ranged from 20.5C to 36.7C. A hot, dry, mostly sunny day with increasing high cloud and a bit of a breeze at times. Only other things worth mentioning was a "halo" around the Sun, and a small bushfire to our southwest in the Lysterfield Park area.

As for today, I missed what I heard was a beautiful sunrise! Bummer. frown

But we had a nice burst of heavy rain this morning, with 2.1mm collected in the 24 hours to 9am. The most we've had this month, not much but better than none! Peak rainfall rate was 6.9mm/hr btw. smile

Sadly no thunderstorms. frown

It was breezy at times, until the change hit around lunchtime. Following the rainband, we had some sunny periods. Then a hideous low overcast swept in and kept the temperature in check; no further rain though, and it's been cool and calm! Blue sky have been making a few brief appearances over the last half an hour. poke

Today's "high" was 26.8C at about 1am (so a hot night), and the "low" was 19.8C just after 9am. It edged back towards 22C after the rainband, but this overcast and the associated cooler air has kept the temperature below 20C from lunchtime onwards, and it's been gradually dropping... but oh so gradually! Only around 18C atm. Weird weather! crazy


Edited by aussiestormfreak (16/03/2017 19:27)

Top
#1412823 - 16/03/2017 19:56 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: samboz]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 157
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: samboz
G'day Snowy, must reiterate that this far out its in the realms of fiction as far as I'm concerned.........

However it does give some support to other models so maybe shouldn't be dismissed out of hand.

I'll believe it when it's in the gauge.

https://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Victoria/Boisdale/long.html

Matlock looking OK, just don't bank on it grin

https://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Victoria/Matlock/long.html

Light rain here as I type, the major part of the front hasn't got here yet.

G'day to you too samboz
Sorry I'm looking at the EC ensembles. You are right about the lack of confidence, I just can't see totals that high. Cheers
_________________________
Long term forecaster
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au
Just ask, I'm more than happy to provide.

Top
#1412826 - 16/03/2017 20:07 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1378
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
They change so often Snowy!! - a check of the Boisdale/Matlock sites at 1155hrs today would have been relevant to the post figures at that time.

Hence - "must reiterate that this far out its in the realms of fiction as far as I'm concerned........"

The rainfall figures are much less now, that at 1155hrs today on EC.
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March - 49mm to 0900 30th.

Top
#1412927 - 17/03/2017 12:18 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5532
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 12.2C, currently around 19C and sunny. smile

I forgot to mention that I collected an additional 1mm of rain just after 9am yesterday. smile

Top
#1412950 - 17/03/2017 15:36 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2140
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Its worry as its El Nio WATCH means that there is approximately a 50% chance of El Nio developing in 2017, which is about twice the normal likelihood by BOM..

Lovey warm 30c and nice cool overnight.

Top
#1413028 - 17/03/2017 20:57 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5532
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a lovely, warm 26.5C here in Belgrave today, with virtually clear skies and plenty of sunshine! A nice, cooling breeze to take the heat out of the Sun btw. smile

Gonna be another chilly night, currently around 18C.

Top
#1413094 - 18/03/2017 10:32 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5532
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 10.9C, currently around 20C and sunny. smile


Edited by aussiestormfreak (18/03/2017 10:39)

Top
#1413104 - 18/03/2017 11:05 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 157
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
On EC, current totals in the Melbourne Area are about 50mm, with some areas in the west of Melbourne receiving up to 80mm.

Western Victoria averages around 20-30mm and Eastern Victoria, particularly in the ranges, receives 30-50mm.
_________________________
Long term forecaster
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au
Just ask, I'm more than happy to provide.

Top
#1413128 - 18/03/2017 13:23 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2140
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Snowy Hibbo, I hope so good rains in coming days.

Top
#1413194 - 18/03/2017 18:15 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6309
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Looking back 3 days ago to the thread start, the actual conditions now continue to support the chance of decent rain for areas of Vic into next week.

We have plenty of moisture plumming into Aus interior heading west from NSW's coastal rain event presently underway, the cold air IS heading up into SW WA as GFS predicted all those days ago:

Current SatIR:


Current BOM MSLP:


....and what GFS currently thinks is a possible outcome into next week:


The chances of "bringing some of that rain down from NSW" still look possible next week IMO.









Edited by Petros (18/03/2017 18:16)

Top
#1413280 - 19/03/2017 00:07 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5532
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a nice hot, dry, sunny 32.5C here in Belgrave yesterday (Saturday). Perfect! grin

Had a cooling breeze to make conditions a little more comfortable, but otherwise a great one for being outside, especially in Menzies Creek and Emerald around lunchtime. smile

Still lovely outside, currently around 20C with virtually no wind. smile

Loving Melbourne's latest forecast!! A sight for sore eyes, a dream come true... well almost! I'll believe it when I see it actually happen, since we haven't really had a major rain/storm event here since the cold blast last February. The extended hot, dry spells before the cold outbreak worked to our advantage, as the "bay effect" was kinda on steroids lol. smile

Forecast for Melbourne...

Sunday:

16-32C - Sunny

Sunny. Winds northwest to northeasterly 10 to 20 km/h becoming light in the middle of the day then becoming south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the late afternoon.

Monday:

20-28C - Humid. Showers. Possible storms.

Humid. Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. The chance of thunderstorms with possible heavy falls. Light winds becoming north to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the early afternoon.

Possible rainfall: 4-15mm

Tuesday:

20-25C - Humid. Showers. Possible storms.

Humid. Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. The chance of thunderstorms. Heavy falls possible. Light winds becoming south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the evening.

Possible rainfall: 5-20mm


To avoid getting my hopes up, I'm guessing I'll collect a mere 5-10mm, but I'll be very happy if I am proven wrong and get as much as double or even triple that range (or more). Send 'er down, Hughie! And bring the storm action too please, I want to get the adrenaline pumping, and the camera busy!! =D




Top
#1413310 - 19/03/2017 08:37 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1378
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Conflicting models as usual, going with ACCESS best rains for north Gippsland likely to be late Tuesday into Wednesday, not confident of good falls although GFS this morn. shows us good for 25mm, EC similiar.

With <40mm for the year rain will be handy.

The cooler air with the rain will linger till the end of next week (ACCESS) as we settle gracefully (hoping) into some beautiful settled APRIL weather.
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March - 49mm to 0900 30th.

Top
#1413328 - 19/03/2017 10:03 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5532
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 16.3C, currently around 25C and sunny. smile

Top
#1413369 - 19/03/2017 13:13 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Gabby Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/03/2002
Posts: 2845
Loc: Yarrawonga/Mulwala on the Murr...
Originally Posted By: Petros
Looking back 3 days ago to the thread start, the actual conditions now continue to support the chance of decent rain for areas of Vic into next week.

We have plenty of moisture plumming into Aus interior heading west from NSW's coastal rain event presently underway, the cold air IS heading up into SW WA as GFS predicted all those days ago:

Current SatIR:


Current BOM MSLP:


....and what GFS currently thinks is a possible outcome into next week:


The chances of "bringing some of that rain down from NSW" still look possible next week IMO.








Thanks Petros Good to see some discussion and guidance on the topic of this thread which is the expected rain and possible thunderstorms Monday to Wednesday. Fingers are crossed for this to eventuate as rain is now much needed up this way.

Top
#1413419 - 19/03/2017 16:38 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 867
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Hot today 33c atm!!

Really craving some wet stuff to fall
Our way and for all of Victoria hopefully
Over the next few days??

Gfs looks ok on this arvo run😀
Hard to pick these type of events?!

Top
#1413473 - 19/03/2017 20:14 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6039
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
BUMP! Really impressive rain event possible. multi day event which is the best bit even if just getting a bit each day. Going to be quite heavy totals somewhere in central 3rd of the state and then lingering showers out east afterwards. Excited after a month to date total of 3.7mm
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1413484 - 19/03/2017 20:57 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 157
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
For Melbourne Area Sunday-Thursday
GFS 30-50mm
GEM 10-20 mm East, 20-40mm West
EC 25-40mm
WATL (Combination of models) 20-45mm

Looks better for the west on most models. My guess for the Melbourne AWS in this period would be approx 25mm. Overall, gonna be a great soaker for Melbourne and most of Victoria. Mostly dry in Far East Gippsland and the Far North West.
_________________________
Long term forecaster
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au
Just ask, I'm more than happy to provide.

Top
#1413489 - 19/03/2017 21:26 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5532
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a hot, dry, hazy but sunny 36.4C here in Belgrave this arvo, with a nice breeze once again. A balmy, calm night atm, currently around 24C. smile

The models and charts are now finally falling more-or-less in-line for hopefully an EPIC rain event and storm outbreak across Victoria! The trough is shifting south from Queensland into NSW/ACT on satellite, so I'd expect showers and thunderstorms to start developing across the Northern Plains and Northeast early tomorrow morning and then spread southwards as the day progresses! smile

BSCH GFS wants to deliver as much as 50mm of rain across much of Melbourne over the coming three days! Wow!!! =D

Hope this link works...

http://stormcast.com.au/raincast.html?ops=gfs:2017031900:0:72:vic:nul

Top
#1413495 - 19/03/2017 22:57 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2140
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Lovely late summer for Victoria and humidity next some rain we needed it, no cold blast yet.

Top
#1413501 - 20/03/2017 06:47 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1099
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
Looking at the radar it is coming in behind that force field. Force field always picks up anything coming from West to Northwest as it is placed in Laverton
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

Top
#1413507 - 20/03/2017 07:30 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5532
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 19.9C, currently around 23C. Humid and cloudy. First round of stormy weather is about to arrive from the north, so no wonder it's still dark outside! smile

Top
#1413513 - 20/03/2017 08:02 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6039
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
LOL, frustrating start. Twenty drops or so here, band becoming quite heavy to my south so have missed this lot. Slow moving too so going to really get some event totals kicked off solidly in a few places
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1413522 - 20/03/2017 08:47 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1378
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
BOM says for home - "Possible rainfall: 6 to 20 mm Chance of any rain: 95%"

Hoping we get some, don't see 95% quoted to often !!

Looking at ACCESS this morning we might do better than the 1mm>2mm Met Officer report from East Sale RAAF on local ABC this morning.

Good to see central NSW getting some good rain.

Calm, dark cloud, no rain here at the mo', radar has showers close by and closing on Maffra from the N.
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March - 49mm to 0900 30th.

Top
#1413524 - 20/03/2017 09:02 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
vjknight Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2012
Posts: 180
Loc: AscotVale, Inner NW Melb
just started raining here in 'bay effect' central.
light and steady. stay all day please.

Top
#1413525 - 20/03/2017 09:18 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
DVC Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/11/2011
Posts: 269
Loc: Abbotsford, Victoria
Finally some precipitation, drizzle then fine rain, feels strange for end March warm humid and northerly moisture. Had to laugh when the band of rain I've been watching from the north since around 6am started splitting and heading west of town ... grateful for small mercies.
_________________________
DVC

Top
#1413532 - 20/03/2017 09:26 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1099
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
The forecast I got sent to my phone from the weatherzone app promised Thunderstorm today and tomorrow! Ot did provide a lot of comic relief, I haven't laughed so much in a while.
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

Top
#1413538 - 20/03/2017 09:48 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2140
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
3mm this morning and clear in North as clouds heading down to Melbourne areas...

Top
#1413556 - 20/03/2017 11:49 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6039
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
We have cracked a mm, just watching the visible satellite for any signs of life over northern VIC.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1413571 - 20/03/2017 13:20 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6039
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
25/20 with cu everywhere. Now please let it be lifted sufficiently to add to my 1.4mm.

Melbourne sounding not updated on BOM site when others have - was keen to see but I guess with rain at the time of the sounding probably not that good a reading anyway. One right now would be interesting.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1413580 - 20/03/2017 13:56 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Gabby Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/03/2002
Posts: 2845
Loc: Yarrawonga/Mulwala on the Murr...
Black cloud all around, small amounts of instability can be seen on BoM radar. No rain yet. DP 18.8 and RH 47%

Top
#1413581 - 20/03/2017 14:06 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 639
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Heaps of Cu on the visible Sat loop... hope it can break the cap. It seriously feels like Darwin outside in the CBD right now, be shame if all this moisture went to waste.

Top
#1413583 - 20/03/2017 14:08 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1378
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Nice big wet stormy cell heading south from Mt Hotham where it dropped 1/2" after midday.

The W. side of it might get out to the Crooked River fire as it goes S, and just as good, continue on to here.
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March - 49mm to 0900 30th.

Top
#1413586 - 20/03/2017 14:18 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
vjknight Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2012
Posts: 180
Loc: AscotVale, Inner NW Melb
https://www.facebook.com/theaustralianweatherforum/posts/1446088898788076

The Australian Weather Forum added 3 new photos.
19 hrs

**SIGNIFICANT VICTORIAN RAIN EVENT**

Victoria will experience a significant rain event beginning from tonight and tomorrow, and stretching through until Wednesday.

An influx of tropical moisture from the north, coupled with interactions from a low pressure trough will result in widespread areas of rain and even thunderstorms to develop from the north overnight before spreading south across most of Victoria Monday morning and afternoon.

There is the potential for severe thunderstorms to develop and result in large hailstones and flash flooding, however this is more likely if we see clearance in the clouds to allow for maximum convective potential (essentially heat related lift).

The process generally repeats itself on Tuesday, with the best of the falls across southern districts, before it finally begins to move away late in the day and during Wednesday, although showers will remain.

Totals for the period are likely to be quite significant. Highest falls are likely to be around central districts of Victoria, with amounts potentially reaching up to 50mm, which will be locally higher up to 75-100mm with thunderstorms. Elsewhere across the state (away from the far west and northwest), general falls to 25-50mm are anticipated, again locally higher with storms, while the far west and northwest should see around 5-15mm.

Remember to keep an eye on weather warnings via the Bureau of Meteorology and to keep up to date with analysis on our weather forum and of course our Twitter and Facebook pages.

Don't also forget to keep us updated on what's happening by posting on our page and sending through all your photos to be put up!

Top
#1413599 - 20/03/2017 14:51 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6039
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Starting to get pretty active along border and in the high country. Some magnif congestus around here. 27/17.6 = very impressive latter March obs.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1413627 - 20/03/2017 16:04 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6039
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Thunder to my south, complex around Melton to Ballan actually growing toward the north and my locale. Looks like this a few moments ago, through the junk there is a pretty impressive cu nim.



_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1413641 - 20/03/2017 16:46 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2140
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Good photos and hope no sea breeze tonight to kill storms.

Top
#1413651 - 20/03/2017 17:12 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6039
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Ripping cooling SE wind here now, lots of thunder from new cell to my SE. Could be good as creates more boundaries but its cooling things down (though DP holding around 19)

Cell to SE was a ripper, so close and yet so far

_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1413654 - 20/03/2017 17:13 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1099
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
Great photos! Looking at the radar, just reinforces my idea and gives creedence to it! There are storms to the west travelling south and storms in the east travelling south as well, both are skirting the middle
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

Top
#1413663 - 20/03/2017 17:48 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 639
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Feels like the humidity has dropped off significantly in the CBD since lunchtime.

Seabreeze could act as the forcefield frown clear skies overhead.

Top
#1413664 - 20/03/2017 17:50 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1099
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
I was around the Woodend Macedon area on Saturday and now they have storms. Radar showing storms to the north of me! I'm wondering when they'll die
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

Top
#1413665 - 20/03/2017 17:55 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2140
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Had very heavy thick drops as slow weakin cell dumped 2mm and dropped to 26c.

Top
#1413667 - 20/03/2017 18:01 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Weather_Viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 248
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
I think the seabreeze will kill most of Melbourne's chances frown
_________________________
Wunderground

Top
#1413677 - 20/03/2017 18:23 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
BlueyZarsoff Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/07/2015
Posts: 89
Loc: Fountain Lakes (Sth East Melb)
Forcefield is in effect for S/E burbs :-)

Top
#1413696 - 20/03/2017 19:05 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6039
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Rumbling away to the north now and pretty dark. Hope to get some rain out of this. Wind still SSE but weakening. 20.3/17.5 at 579m, no moisture issues for this line!
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1413702 - 20/03/2017 19:19 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1099
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
The radar 64km is showing a a lot of action around Kinglake. Just waiting for the HAARP to neutralise it!
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

Top
#1413704 - 20/03/2017 19:21 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6309
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Great photo's Ruckle smile ....tells 1,000 words.

Had a lovely 3mm warm/humid/tropical-like rain here this morning to start whatever we might or might not get (refer to Samboz for the full official dental disclaimer). Warm mild calm 24C here at present with an amazing smoke-enhanced sunset, and dark looking cloud up on the mountains.

.....look at what is looming down from the North from so many of us atm!! :0


Top
#1413706 - 20/03/2017 19:23 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 867
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Great photos ruckle 😀

Finally we opened the rainfall bank
Account for this month today with 2mm!!

I can't hold my excitement and expectation
Back for this event now, surely we are good
For at least an inch????? Lol
Really holding out for this one!! Gutters
Are clean and ready to catch a deluge!!🤔

Top
#1413714 - 20/03/2017 19:48 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
gleno01 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2010
Posts: 87
Loc: Shepparton
great start the event here got a nice 9mm fairly quick,very isolated though
_________________________
check out my you tube channel gleno2008

Top
#1413715 - 20/03/2017 19:48 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
gleno01 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2010
Posts: 87
Loc: Shepparton
nice strom front heading southbound
_________________________
check out my you tube channel gleno2008

Top
#1413717 - 20/03/2017 19:51 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6039
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
You would think so except for the gaps in it, one of which is going over my house...
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1413720 - 20/03/2017 20:07 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
gleno01 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2010
Posts: 87
Loc: Shepparton
that would be annoying Ruckle, that normally happpens in shepparton when the hail guns go off, although we have been lucky this month with a 11 mm down pour and a 9mm down pour tonight so far, nothing amassing compared to other places up north like coffs harbour incredible stuff. fingers crossed for later for mor action
_________________________
check out my you tube channel gleno2008

Top
#1413721 - 20/03/2017 20:07 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1378
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Mt Hotham A/Port, 16mm in 20 minutes, that'd be OK here -----

Very exciting here this morning, the bottom of the gauge got wet enough to turn the dust in the bottom to mud, as usual the Usurpers@RoyalMaffraGolfCourse.com.au robbed us off the showers passing thru'.......typical..... grin


Edited by samboz (20/03/2017 20:08)
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March - 49mm to 0900 30th.

Top
#1413726 - 20/03/2017 20:25 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: samboz]
Hunter1890 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/10/2012
Posts: 53
Loc: Ivanhoe/Waratah Bay VIC
Looks like the storm to the NE of the CBD of Melbourne is running out of steam... cloud top temps decreasing, and slowing down due to the GDR. Bugger. Hope tomorrow goes off, the rain is desperately needed now. Apparently 50 odd mm of rain in Yea in quick time with flash flooding.

Top
#1413731 - 20/03/2017 20:36 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
vjknight Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2012
Posts: 180
Loc: AscotVale, Inner NW Melb
OMG i am seeing lightning. havent seen lightning for close to two years. heard it, saw distant cloud flashes, but no CC or CG til just now.

Top
#1413734 - 20/03/2017 20:41 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: vjknight]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 639
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Originally Posted By: vjknight
OMG i am seeing lightning. havent seen lightning for close to two years. heard it, saw distant cloud flashes, but no CC or CG til just now.


Yup can finally see the odd flash! smile

Shame it's not as frequent as it was before on radar. Only saw 2 flashes in about 5 minutes of staring North, but the city lights may be washing out some of the ones at the back of the storm.

Top
#1413735 - 20/03/2017 20:41 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1099
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
I saw a few CC Crawlers which have been good but underwhelming. As it has reached Whittlesea it has lost it's puff
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

Top
#1413737 - 20/03/2017 20:58 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Remy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/02/2015
Posts: 195
Loc: Mulgrave (SE Suburbs), Melbour...
It's still trying though

Top
#1413738 - 20/03/2017 20:58 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1378
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Contain that excitement F'man, always tomorrow cool
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March - 49mm to 0900 30th.

Top
#1413739 - 20/03/2017 21:00 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 157
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
I just heard a faint thunder strike in the Box Hill area. Looking at the radar 5-10mm for us maybe
_________________________
Long term forecaster
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au
Just ask, I'm more than happy to provide.

Top
#1413755 - 20/03/2017 22:20 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Remy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/02/2015
Posts: 195
Loc: Mulgrave (SE Suburbs), Melbour...
Aaaaaaaaand it's gone

Top
#1413766 - 20/03/2017 23:14 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Alexia Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/12/2002
Posts: 558
Loc: Corryong
We have had 40mm rain in the last 2hours.Only had 29mm rain since the end of January so this is really amazing.

Top
#1413772 - 20/03/2017 23:39 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5532
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Hi all! Reached a hot, sweaty 31.5C here in Belgrave today. It felt like a steam bath while I was at work in Boronia, but thank goodness for air conditioning, despite those insane dew points! smile

We had a couple of hours of rain this morning, at times heavy. Collected 1.1mm here at home as the rainband swept through.

The skies began clearing towards midday, with convective towers flaring as the afternoon progressed. The first storms I saw were off to the west when I knocked off around 3:45pm, over the Melton/Baccus Marsh region. But a few more cells were towering over the Yarra Ranges; the tops of these cells were just visible over the ridge of Mount Dandenong from my workplace! smile

During the 45 minute drive home, the storm cells over Melbourne's west matured and then eventually died. Meanwhile, three cells were in various stages of their life cycle to the northeast: one in the middle was developing, one to the right was decaying, and one to the left was hitting maturity. smile

Around 5:30pm, my focused turned to the line of storms approaching from the north. Lots of huge cumulonimbus erupting all along the northern horizon as it moved towards Melbourne. The anvil looked gorgeous at sunset, around 7:30pm, by which time the cells within the storm front that were to my due north were over Kinglake, and looking intense on radar! smile

By nightfall we had lightning flashes to our north, starting at 8pm! Our first distant rumble of thunder followed at 8:22pm!! grin

Then we had nothing but darkness and silence that lasted for what felt an eternity. I felt the show was over already. frown

But around 10 minutes later, the thunder and lightning started up again, lasting for a good 45 minutes as the storm edged southwards! At the peak of the display, the lightning was occurring on average about once or twice a minute. It was mostly sheet flashes, and generally very faint, but at 8:57pm I saw two potentially dangerous CG lightning strikes (most likely in the direction of Mount Dandenong), and I caught them on camera! Yeah baby!! =D

The thunder sounded like distant earthquake tremors btw. smile

We had a little bit of rain at about 9:30pm as the storm's leading edge moved in, but the storm quickly dissolved and soon vanished completely. frown

A calm, humid night outside, currently around 22C. Next wave of heavy rain and storms brewing over the Northern Plains and should hopefully reach us overnight. Really need a thorough soaking, or else we risk ending March with barely 5-10mm of rain. frown

Top
#1413805 - 21/03/2017 08:17 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6039
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Great stuff Alexia. Only 3.6mm further here in my portion of Woodend since yesterday morning so event total 5.0mm which lags behind nearby locales quite significantly. The storm in the evening was so close with its heavy core but we only got a few drops and most of the arvo I was on the photogenic but dry side of storms. Still got today and tomorrow to play out yet. Low cloud ceiling with cirro and altocumulus above it in the breaks and 18.5/17.5 with ENE breeze so anything possible still.

SW corner of the state about to be very wet.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1413812 - 21/03/2017 09:05 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Alexia]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1378
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Originally Posted By: Alexia
We have had 40mm rain in the last 2hours.Only had 29mm rain since the end of January so this is really amazing.


Very nice Alexia and still warm enough to get some grass growing before Winter, a perfect Autumn Break in the circumstances.
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March - 49mm to 0900 30th.

Top
#1413841 - 21/03/2017 10:56 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 639
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
So very grey, but very dry (considering the forecast) in the metro area. What's everyone's thoughts and feelings about development this afternoon.

There is weather still developing up North and also now some nice looking storms on the VIC / SA Border heading East.

Top
#1413847 - 21/03/2017 11:42 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6039
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Loaded atmosphere, some pretty heavy falls if you are right under a cell. In addition to the deluge happening in the SW atm general lift producing stuff and possibly a line of convergence forming where the low circulation hits the south bound clouds?Roughly Swan Hill to Ballarat?
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1413852 - 21/03/2017 11:58 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 830
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
upto 30mm in heavy rain going since 6am, looking like we could push 50mm.
_________________________
Located in South West Victoria
My PWS (in Portland, Vic) http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IVICTORI427

Top
#1413859 - 21/03/2017 12:55 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2140
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Looks like uppers in West will start push East bring heavy rain and storms is chance..

Very Muddy of 26c of light N/NE wind.

Top
#1413861 - 21/03/2017 12:58 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6039
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
LOL been raining on the mountain for 10 minutes, not a single drop here. Sun just came out.

Yep CA, that's the line I was referring to an hour or so ago its looking promising. Has some clear air in front of it as well.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1413862 - 21/03/2017 13:00 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
liberator Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/11/2010
Posts: 280
Loc: Kyabram
28 mm overnight (by the local AWS) - most confined to one downpour after midnight. Sat outside for half an hour watching the storm approach but just couldn't stay awake to watch it roll in. Hit the sack and then BOOM - of course, but I couldn't drag myself out of bed to enjoy. Yet to check my home gauge to see what we got compared to the AWS,

Top
#1413869 - 21/03/2017 13:34 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2140
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Very dark in West and North West and thunder cell Anvil shear is East direction very slow and next one far as Nhill is chance too.

Top
#1413872 - 21/03/2017 13:48 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 639
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Getting dark an ominous in the Eastern suburbs. Looks like we will get some of the heavy stuff we have been wishing for.

Top
#1413877 - 21/03/2017 14:19 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: balmz]
Hunter1890 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/10/2012
Posts: 53
Loc: Ivanhoe/Waratah Bay VIC
15mm in 10 minutes here. Bulk of it probably coming in about 3 minutes of complete whiteout. Still extremely humid and more favourable conditions this arvo and evening.

Top
#1413886 - 21/03/2017 14:48 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Remy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/02/2015
Posts: 195
Loc: Mulgrave (SE Suburbs), Melbour...
Holy hell I did not expect this.

24mm so far and highest rain rate was 167mm/hr about 5 minutes ago, still at a consistent 100mm/hr

Top
#1413888 - 21/03/2017 14:54 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2140
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
The cell front looks like W/NW wind change dumped 4mm and then shifted back N/NE wind still humid.

Top
#1413890 - 21/03/2017 15:07 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Jilly Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/05/2007
Posts: 177
Loc: Warrnambool
WOW!! Absolutely chucked it down while I was in the pool. 47 glorious mls. This is a game changer for us.

Top
#1413892 - 21/03/2017 15:09 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6039
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
25.6mm at Bendigo AWS in 30 minutes. Meanwhile sun out again here and not even a drop so far today.24/19 atm. Visible satellite is really something atm, lots going on out there. Real interesting few hours coming up.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1413901 - 21/03/2017 15:48 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2140
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
YES Ruckle I live south Bendigo only 4mm and North is 26mm hope more from West give me more.

Top
#1413903 - 21/03/2017 15:48 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Weather_Viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 248
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
I'm at work in the city, but according to my weather station at home in Tarneit we got a decent drop. 16.5mm in the heavy cells that formed around Werribee and surrounds. Total for today 19.3mm and more on the way by the looks of it.
_________________________
Wunderground

Top
#1413910 - 21/03/2017 15:59 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 639
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Just a quick one, anyone else having problems with their main WZ account suddenly? It's logged me off and is telling me authentication failed - email address not found"

So it's like my account has been deleted completely. Weird. I've raised a ticket but wanted to see if anyone else had a sudden issue.

Top
#1413915 - 21/03/2017 16:02 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 639
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Never mind, it is widespread. So not just me.

Anyway! Nice line of heavy rain moving in from the West now which should hopefully bring more further falls.

Had a nice quick downpour estimate about 8mm or so in 15 or so minutes with some nice thunder and lightning to go with grin

Top
#1413924 - 21/03/2017 16:19 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
BlueyZarsoff Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/07/2015
Posts: 89
Loc: Fountain Lakes (Sth East Melb)
Very pleasing 31mm so far here Narre poke

Top
#1413931 - 21/03/2017 16:34 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: BlueyZarsoff]
Hunter1890 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/10/2012
Posts: 53
Loc: Ivanhoe/Waratah Bay VIC
Viewbank (my local BoM station) has a dew point of 24.3!! That is absurd for this time of year! Seeing some amazing congestus development overhead. Only takes a few minutes of sun to set them off!


Edited by Hunter1890 (21/03/2017 16:34)

Top
#1413942 - 21/03/2017 16:55 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: BlueyZarsoff]
vjknight Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2012
Posts: 180
Loc: AscotVale, Inner NW Melb
Originally Posted By: BlueyZarsoff
Forcefield is in effect for S/E burbs :-)


seriously - where is the forcefield is the S/E ?

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV60901/IDV60901.95866.shtml

0.2mm

Top
#1413944 - 21/03/2017 16:58 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: balmz]
TC Daniel Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 19/11/2013
Posts: 31
Loc: Wantirna South, VIC
Yes I did to. Feel your pain mad
_________________________
Daniel Hayward

Top
#1413947 - 21/03/2017 17:01 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 867
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
No sun and only 1mm of rain out were
I am in Gippsland!! Dam easterly still
Blowing!
Hope some of the rain still makes it out this
Way tonight

Top
#1413950 - 21/03/2017 17:11 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 157
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
12.6mm at the Melbourne AWS for the past rainfall event. A massive storm slammed right over Box Hill about 2:30pm, it dumped about 10mm in half an hour. Lights went out briefly at children's school.

One more rain band, affecting Melbourne around 6pm. Hopefully that clears the muggy crap.
_________________________
Long term forecaster
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au
Just ask, I'm more than happy to provide.

Top
#1413955 - 21/03/2017 17:25 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
malteaser Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/01/2007
Posts: 78
Loc: Torquay and Geelong
absolutely chucking it down here in Geelong. Unreal, best rain in months, looks like it will be over very shortly however.

Top
#1413956 - 21/03/2017 17:30 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 534
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Only a few half-hearted attempts at rain here, overnight and today. Very pleasing to see the good totals over SW and Central. Jilly, Warrnambol now showing 49mm!!

Top
#1413958 - 21/03/2017 17:34 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: vjknight]
BlueyZarsoff Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/07/2015
Posts: 89
Loc: Fountain Lakes (Sth East Melb)
Pelting down again... Forcefield is penetrated poke

Top
#1413968 - 21/03/2017 18:03 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5532
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Hey gang! smile

Nice to have a bit more excitement today as opposed to yesterday. The temperature here in Belgrave has ranged between 18.8C and 26.9C today. Peak heat index reading was 28C, and we had dew points up to 23C. poke

Mostly cloudy and very yucky with little wind, with plenty of instability and low cloud (especially over the Dandenong Ranges), and some good convection as the day progressed.

I was at work in Boronia today; a few showers passed over during the morning, and then we had some sunshine at lunchtime. Then it got very dark after 1:30pm as a 20-30 minute thunderstorm swept down from the north; I noted a bit of a shelfie off to the northwest (over Ringwood, Croydon, and Warrandyte) before the storm hit at 2pm. Although I didn't see any lightning before or even during the storm, I counted no less than five rumbles of thunder. There was also a bit of wind, and plenty of heavy rain! smile

Another couple of showers followed behind the storm, and I ended up driving through some sprinkling sun showers on the way home around 4pm. I did manage to see the top of the storms over Melbourne's west, but my immediate focus was again towards the north as another heavy shower/thunderstorm approached the Dandenongs. smile

I arrived home just before 4:30pm, with the Sun still out. It then got as dark as dusk just before 5pm, and then the next thing we know a 20-minute downpour arrives, turning our driveway into a river. No thunder or lightning, and very little if any wind, but the rain was TORRENTIAL! Peak rainfall rate was 140mm/hr! =D

The worst of the storm is over, and the rain should stop in about 5-10 minutes or so, but hopefully we'll get some more action this evening. That activity over towards the City looks juicy, just as long as it holds together and takes aim at my area! smile

Thanks to some overnight rain, we had an additional 1.1mm in my gauge when I woke up this morning, so 2.2mm in total by the time I left for work. Then we had another 7.3mm in the gauge when I returned home.

I'll have to wait a while before I can get exact figures, but it appears this latest downpour has pushed my event total to well over 30mm! Would be great if it can go even higher than that before 9am tomorrow. smile

Currently around 20C, with humidity at 92% and a dew point of 19C. poke

I encountered virtually no flooding on my way home, but the roads were quite slippery.

Edit: no force field here in Belgrave, except that it took a while to develop lol. smile

Edit: the rain has stopped now. Event total is 32.8mm, so 23.3mm collected from the downpour that's just been through. smile


Edited by aussiestormfreak (21/03/2017 18:12)

Top
#1413995 - 21/03/2017 18:59 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6039
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
5.3mm this arvo, 10.3mm for the event. Not sure about stuff out west. DP still a ridiculous 19c.
Nuff said.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1413996 - 21/03/2017 19:04 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6309
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Calm and muggy, overcast here, a heavy shower here this morning gave us another 1.25mm to add to the 3mm we got yest morning.

Would be nice to hear some rain on the roof tonight....

Top
#1413998 - 21/03/2017 19:12 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Weather_Viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 248
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
24.6mm here in Tarneit, that's good for a westie!
_________________________
Wunderground

Top
#1414019 - 21/03/2017 20:33 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 867
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Finally raining here, but radar dosent look
Anywhere near as full as it was around
Melbourne and west vic.
Hopefully radar fills out and dumps an
Inch or so

Top
#1414029 - 21/03/2017 20:47 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6039
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Amazing fog here atm.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1414030 - 21/03/2017 20:51 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2140
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Very unreal how all clouds and cells dumped rain and disappeared fast...

Had 6mm this morning to 9am
Afternoon
4mm from first cell line from NW
7mm from cell line W/SW

Most of North of Bendigo had heaviest and South missed it.

Total for March is 27.5mm out of 36mm average month.
Only need 8.5mm more is likely next cool to cold W/SW Change next week.

Top
#1414069 - 21/03/2017 22:39 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1099
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
Another fail! I hate having to go through the epic humidity without being rewarded.

I have just gone out and it is 75% clear!
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

Top
#1414075 - 21/03/2017 23:12 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5532
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Just barely missed being hit by a heavy shower around 90 minutes ago, it dodged us to the south! Very rare for showers and thunderstorms to do that here in the Belgrave area, normally we take a direct-hit or a brushing sideswipe! crazy poke

Anyway...

Good to see that storms are once again in action on the Victorian radar, even though they're currently only over the Mallee region. Hopefully something will develop closer to Melbourne overnight. smile

Anyone notice the "convergence boundary" occurring along the Surf Coast, down towards Anglesea, Torquay and Aireys Inlet? smile

Currently around 20C btw.


Edited by aussiestormfreak (21/03/2017 23:12)

Top
#1414118 - 22/03/2017 09:28 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1378
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
8mm for event, 5.5mm this morning. grin

Still having light rain, the odd heavier shower when they come thru' overhead from the W.
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March - 49mm to 0900 30th.

Top
#1414134 - 22/03/2017 10:16 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Weather_Viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 248
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
Constant drizzle this morning here in Tarneit, still raining. Over 10mm since midnight. Not showing much on the radar though.
_________________________
Wunderground

Top
#1414135 - 22/03/2017 10:17 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5532
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 16.4C, currently around 17C and cloudy.

Collected another 2.1mm of rain last night, so 32.7mm in the 24 hours to 9am and 34.9mm for the event. Nice! smile

Need only about another 10-15mm to push my monthly total to the 50mm mark or more! smile

Pity about missing out on the storms up north, I wish I was in Corryong atm. frown

Top
#1414189 - 22/03/2017 13:26 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Gabby Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/03/2002
Posts: 2845
Loc: Yarrawonga/Mulwala on the Murr...
21mm for us. No storms overhead just in the distance.

Top
#1414262 - 22/03/2017 16:37 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2140
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Uncommon see massive E/SE clouds feels like seas breezes in Northern Country.

Top
#1414267 - 22/03/2017 16:48 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1099
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
Adding more credence to a HAARP in Victoria, if you look at what is happening north of the border.
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

Top
#1414296 - 22/03/2017 18:06 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5532
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a top of only 20.7C here in Belgrave today, currently around 19C. Been cloudy all day, although the Sun broke through from 3:30pm onwards. Also windy, with a rather coolish, gusty southeasterly; the clouds were moving quite quickly too. poke


Edited by aussiestormfreak (22/03/2017 18:06)

Top
#1414317 - 22/03/2017 18:54 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6309
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Light mist from the SE on the way to work this morning turned into light easterly rain in Maffra all day! Only light spits here atm, but there was another 15.5mm in the gauge just now to take us to 19.25mm for this event smile smile

Here's the present synoptic:


....shows the possibility of further "easterly showers" into Gippsland over the next 12 hours or so as the low pressure centres in SE Aus amalgamate into one system SE of Vic tomorrow morning??

.....I'd get stabbed in the left eye by the local cockies if I claimed this event as N Gippsland's "Autumn break" right now - but if we got another 7 - 10mm tonight/tomorrow, they might not stab the blade in as deep!

[edit] - another examples of how accurate our models are getting nowadays, .....check out the above actual, with what was progged all those days ago, on the charts on the start of this thread.


Edited by Petros (22/03/2017 19:00)

Top
#1414319 - 22/03/2017 18:58 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
gleno01 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2010
Posts: 87
Loc: Shepparton
happy with 24.6 mm for the event, drove back from echuca yesterday in a crazy downpour, most cars were on the side of the road with there hazard lights on, red on the radar, only to get home and the storm fizzed out by trhe time it got to shepp, could not believe it, the whole rain band from bendigo to deniliquin dissolved away in about a hour, bit of a let down
_________________________
check out my you tube channel gleno2008

Top
#1414320 - 22/03/2017 19:01 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6039
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Mist and lots of wind today, 0.7mm so event total of 11mm. Minimum humidity since midnight 94%. Been a damp misty day.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1414329 - 22/03/2017 19:24 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1378
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Terrific day of rain, light but consistent for 1/2" in the gauge since 0900 .. excellent !!

Heavier that verga, but rarely showed as anything on the radar all day.

20.5mm for the event and still drizzling, agree P, not a full on Autumn Break but good soaking rain with little run off.....it'll do until something better comes along.

Sat. has possibilities and Monday even better.



Edited by samboz (22/03/2017 19:28)
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March - 49mm to 0900 30th.

Top
#1414330 - 22/03/2017 19:24 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
gleno01 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2010
Posts: 87
Loc: Shepparton
hey guys whats the outlook for the the next few months , l herd a nasty rumour that vic is going to be below average rainfall,
_________________________
check out my you tube channel gleno2008

Top
#1414335 - 22/03/2017 19:47 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 867
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Scrapped out 12mm so far for this event.
Hopefully another 1/2" or so early next week
And that should do nicely!
Been foggy drizzly windy day up here all
Today

Top
#1414336 - 22/03/2017 19:49 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 867
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
G'day gleno, I've heard the same thing that
We could be in elnino phase through winter??
Hopefully not

Top
#1414357 - 22/03/2017 21:02 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5532
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Originally Posted By: doogasnow
G'day gleno, I've heard the same thing that
We could be in elnino phase through winter??
Hopefully not


Here here! Unless it's a repeat of 2009/2010 I ain't gonna be happy, no sir! mad frown

Top
#1414372 - 22/03/2017 21:27 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2140
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Gleno01 and Doogasnow good question

AENSO Outlook chart was Inactive few months ago and Now is Watch..

The Cold uppers far Southern Ocean "Polar Belt" looks stronger.
So I hope WA,SA and SE Australia still wet winter frontal.

Perth has cool winter last week

Looks like very Short Summer than Devil 2015/2016 Heatwave.
My records is over 30c days
Bendigo.

November 2 days
December 10 days
January 16 Days
February 10 days
March 11 days

Nov 1st to March 22nd
49 hot days out off Cool low 20c to 29c is 93 days

We only had 3 Days of 40c
January 17th
February 9th
February 10th

its a worry if High pressure keep Easterly Dip like over summer will kill S/W "Westerly wind" flow away "slip in Tasmanian Sea.. for Victoria and NSW likely trough along Coast heavy wild weather infeed by Easterly wind..

Top
#1414419 - 23/03/2017 08:57 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: gleno01]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 157
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: gleno01
hey guys whats the outlook for the the next few months , l herd a nasty rumour that vic is going to be below average rainfall,

POAMA outloook for Winter is dry.

Low accuracy! Caution when using this outlook.
_________________________
Long term forecaster
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au
Just ask, I'm more than happy to provide.

Top
#1414422 - 23/03/2017 09:03 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 157
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.

MSLP anomaly. Same Caveats Apply to this Experimental product.
_________________________
Long term forecaster
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au
Just ask, I'm more than happy to provide.

Top
#1414425 - 23/03/2017 09:15 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1378
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
To 0900 this morning, a wonderful 24.5mm from this event with 4mm overnight when it all looked to be over on the radar.

Very handy bit of rain, for us near enough to an Autumn Break event that is to late in the year to dry off.

This morning is a dull 100% cloud calm morning and the paddocks are greening as you look at them. Radar shows clear skies but it's still misty light rain here & where ever you look outside.

With a good chance of follow up rains, as previously mentioned, and some heat ie 34C Monday next, some good growth is on the way for the mini flock of Dorpers at home.
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March - 49mm to 0900 30th.

Top
#1414434 - 23/03/2017 09:44 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5532
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 15.3C, currently around 17C and cloudy.

Collected another 1mm of rain this morning. smile

Top
#1414581 - 23/03/2017 18:44 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1378
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
1.5mm since 0900 this AM, 26mm for event and still overcast.

Had some sun during the day and high humidity with it.
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March - 49mm to 0900 30th.

Top
#1414583 - 23/03/2017 18:56 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6309
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Just poured out another 3mm from overnight showers and light rainy periods this morning, a total of 22.75mm. Fantastic, drizzle patches still about even now.

Top
#1414586 - 23/03/2017 19:06 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5532
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached 25.3C here in Belgrave today, a full 10C about the overnight low! smile

Gloriously warm and mostly sunny with a fresh southeasterly breeze. I noted some high cloud beginning to appear across the northwest horizon late this arvo btw.

Currently around 19C.

Top
#1414698 - 24/03/2017 08:22 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Alexia Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/12/2002
Posts: 558
Loc: Corryong
We had 51.5mm for this system very lucky as it did vary quite a lot around here more people had around 30 to 40mm. Can't believe how green it is already.

Top
#1414705 - 24/03/2017 08:48 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
gleno01 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2010
Posts: 87
Loc: Shepparton
thanks for your help guys, will study what you have posted chers gleno
_________________________
check out my you tube channel gleno2008

Top
#1414738 - 24/03/2017 10:25 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5532
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 12.2C, currently around 18C and partly cloudy. smile

Top
#1414962 - 24/03/2017 19:00 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6309
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Just poured out another 0.5 mm from overnight showers and light rainy periods this morning, a total of 23.25mm. smile

Top
#1416199 - 26/03/2017 19:48 Re: Vic - a potential "Autumn Break" for many regions 21-24 March 2017?? [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 534
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Very late in posting (apologies) - but I got a total of 21mm out of this event. Never had rain of any intensity but the drizzle was almost never-ending - so ended up with a very soaking 21mm.

Top
Page 1 of 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 >


Who's Online
16 registered (Aussiestormguy, Wave Rider, petethemoskeet, bip333, weatheriam, GringosRain, Colin Maitland, Multiversity, Wild Wassa, Aussea, glendale, Breezin, Willow, redbucket, 2 invisible), 305 Guests and 4 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
deb, Lukeyp, Miss PH 1963, Ootz, Rossco, swampyro
Forum Stats
29224 Members
32 Forums
23568 Topics
1447791 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image