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#1409449 - 25/02/2017 09:45 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 348
Loc: Broome, WA
Models starting to suggest a Kimberley coast hugger in a week or so.

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#1409503 - 25/02/2017 18:29 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7794
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Cheers for the 'Heads Up' Sepo. I forget to even check the models these days due to repeated disappointments. Looks like this one might have some potential especially with EC getting on board.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1409513 - 25/02/2017 19:50 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 348
Loc: Broome, WA
No worries. By the way have you checked out roebuck plains? Magic out there at the moment with water flowing over the road at 4 points. Wildlife is amazing - fish swimming across the road at some sections... another good top up from a low / cyclone will keep that water / life going for months! Try it at night also and play dodge the frog - there aremlyteralky thousands on the road....

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#1409564 - 26/02/2017 02:25 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7794
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Yeah I probably head out there a couple times a week for a look. Storm magnet that place. Hopefully all the frogs eat the mozzie larvae. I remember a few years ago when it flooded there were some baby barra swimming around the waterways. Epic storm tonight. Fingers crossed for some TC action sometime soon. If not a glance along the coast and drop 250mm with a bit of wind would be good. Have to work as well so hard to have both.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1409614 - 26/02/2017 14:23 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome

GFS looking for TC status around the 8th Mach if all lines up .

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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1409966 - 28/02/2017 13:19 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome

Models lining up with this one forming nicely off the coast .

Hopefully Blanche will be born.

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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1410088 - 28/02/2017 23:47 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7794
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Going on the accuracy of the models this season I interpret that map as a 987hp elongated stretched out trough with a sheared convection area located 450kms to its West drifting no where in particular but I could be wrong. haha
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1410089 - 01/03/2017 01:00 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome


Yes I know what your saying Pops ...bound to change a few times before this time next week .The models slowed down the formation of the low in the last few days.

Have to live in hope though cause not much else happening anywhere.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1411756 - 11/03/2017 22:27 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 45
Loc: Jingili Darwin
2 weeks out gfs and ec on windy TV are showing an Intersting scenario especially gfs.Something to keep an eye on even though it"s a long way out.

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#1411763 - 11/03/2017 22:51 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 348
Loc: Broome, WA
A long way out and about the Last chance for the season I reckon darwindix but at least something to look at.....

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#1411770 - 11/03/2017 23:47 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome


Yes saw that they are saying a CAT4 somewhere between Karratha and Exmouth.

Have to wait and see.

Be good to finish the season up with a biggy.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1412051 - 13/03/2017 17:37 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome

Oh No! Latest run of models have downgraded TC in W.A due to dry air hanging around off the coast... cry
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1412346 - 14/03/2017 18:39 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome

Models in a bit more of an agreement today as to a tropical low forming off the North Kimberley/NT coast within the next 8days.

Lots of disagreement as to what happens after that though .

Depends on how favourable the conditions are towards the West Kimberley as to what happens ...too much dry air could push the system to the West.

But if all goes well and a good circulation starts then could be up to Cat 3 appearing off the Kimberley/Pilbara coast within 10 days.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1412393 - 14/03/2017 21:39 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
MarkMark Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/01/2006
Posts: 41
Loc: Port Hedland
I hope so desieboy we need a good old soaking in the pilbara. I hope to wake up tommorrow with models all on board with this one.

The banana benders will hate us though.

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#1412545 - 15/03/2017 14:08 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome


Yes Mark fingers crossed on this one. Be good to Pilbara get some soaking widespread rain that's for sure.


According to the models all will be revealed by weekend still up in the air(pun) atm..

Definitely a low forming off the NT coast but as to its circulation intensity and direction is still dependant on certain factors lining up.

Either it will be at least a Cat3 off the Pilbara coast or it will be a intensifying low well to the West.

Seems to all depend on the amount of dry air flowing around the Kimberley coastline in about 4 days time .
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1412604 - 15/03/2017 18:08 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 348
Loc: Broome, WA
EC looks like it's doing as you suggested Des... decent strength at this stage as well. Where are you Popeye?

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#1412664 - 15/03/2017 23:51 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome

Yes Sepo Pops has been missing in action ....hope you hasn't fallen out of his kayak and swimming to shore. frown

When this one gets going it will be shaping up quickly .

If it happens..
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1412758 - 16/03/2017 15:25 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 45
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Access and GFS has the system crossing next Friday or Saturday in the same area.GFS as a coastal hugger and Access trajectory is further offshore then curving back in .EC not on it.

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#1412777 - 16/03/2017 17:02 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome


At the moment the difference between the models as far as intensity and formation of a TC goes is that GFS and Access have got mosture feeding in from the north east intetestifying the system and steering it towards the West then South West.

The EC on he other hand has a more dry air scenario with the winds coming from the south east and killing off any chance of the low gathering strength after it leaves the NT coastline.

Only time will tell...
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1412788 - 16/03/2017 17:57 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7794
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
What's been going on? I hear a cyclone is on the cards. I reckon this one will pump. Hang on to your hats WA and get ready for the ride maybe the best system of the season which is not hard to achieve. Fingers crossed.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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