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#1413188 - 18/03/2017 17:39 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: james1977]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 944
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
It's like dollar coins falling from the sky
Our tanks are at 40%, water restrictions are ready to start for all seq...
Lots riding on the next few months.

Originally Posted By: james1977
If I tell don't rain before winter there's going to be a lot of ppl hurting real bad by next summer. And it not only effects the farmers it will reflect in the price of produce as well


Edited by Blowin' (18/03/2017 17:42)

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#1413189 - 18/03/2017 18:04 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1564
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Tend to agree Tsunami.
The forecasts haven't been that good over the last couple of weeks. A lot of people have said how the forecasts said showers/rain every day for the past 2 weeks but one day out of that really produced widespread results. I reckon same for this week.
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If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1413190 - 18/03/2017 18:04 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: paulcirrus]
whethertraveller Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2011
Posts: 107
Loc: Northern Gold Coast
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
Bom are very confident about tomorrow 6 to 25 mm and cloudy, meaning overcast. This will be interesting. Where's the overcast skies comming from?
Sunday 6 to 25mm
Monday 8 to 25mm
Tuesday 4 to 15mm
Wednesday 4 to 15mm
Thursday 6 to 20mm
Friday 4 to 15mm
Saturday 2 to 10mm
So a total of 125 mm at best and 36mm at a minimum for this period.
I will look at this with interest.


Paul on 16 March at 11.30 am, I copied the BOM forecast for the Brisbane area (same for Logan area too) as it forecast rain at times, and I hadn't seen that for so long. Unfortunately the low pressure system rain has gone to northern NSW and not us. But love this forecast, wished it was still the same !! Sure hope we still get some rain or heavy showers

"For Sunday as per forecast 16 March "
Min 23
Max 28
Rain at times.
Possible rainfall: 20 to 60 mm
Chance of any rain: 90%
Brisbane area
Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of shower and rain. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Heavy falls possible. Winds south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h turning easterly 25 to 35 km/h during the morning.

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#1413191 - 18/03/2017 18:06 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
whethertraveller Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2011
Posts: 107
Loc: Northern Gold Coast
I might add Paul, we've had a few dark clouds pass by today, but no showers where I live, so there are some around. I'm still hoping for rain/showers, not only for us, but for those on the land.

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#1413198 - 18/03/2017 18:24 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
Stephen Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2004
Posts: 1560
Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
Nice looking storm coming through the sunny coast district this afternoon, very welcome change to the last 2 humid days
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S.Kunze

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#1413199 - 18/03/2017 18:29 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7270
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Looks like CMC & EC are on the same page now with the next upper trough amplifying too far east leaving all the rain out to sea. Not surprising to see GFS cut right back on rainfall this afternoon either, it is rubbish.

edit: ACCESS-G just came out and agrees with EC & CMC, it keeps the tropical low waaaaay offshore compared to its previous run.

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#1413202 - 18/03/2017 18:48 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
Stephen Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2004
Posts: 1560
Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
Which is most likely why BOM never jumped on board to forecast the falls being presentes by GFS. Too good to be true for the 100th time this season
_________________________
S.Kunze

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#1413203 - 18/03/2017 19:03 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5237
Loc: Diamond Valley
Experiencing a lovely drenching cell cascading over us here in the valley. Thankfully, it's from the north so we get the full service.
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#1413204 - 18/03/2017 19:09 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 458
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Here Stormy stormy stormy, come to Caboolture. I need 200mm to fill up my farm dams...

Think I've jinxed myself for this week.
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#1413206 - 18/03/2017 19:14 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5237
Loc: Diamond Valley
34mm so far from this storm activity. You should get some of it Squeak.
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The original donut hole

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#1413208 - 18/03/2017 19:16 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: paulcirrus]
Lewis Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2011
Posts: 334
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
Bom are very confident about tomorrow 6 to 25 mm and cloudy, meaning overcast. This will be interesting. Where's the overcast skies comming from?

So a total of 125 mm at best and 36mm at a minimum for this period.
I will look at this with interest.


Remember, as per the BOM's forecast definition, there's a 50% chance of exceeding the lowest amount on each day, and a 25% chance of exceeding the highest amount on each day. So really, there's only a 50% chance of getting 36mm - I wouldn't consider it "the minimum" by any means.

Personally, I'm pessimistic. This event has been a massive disappointment - from a widespread 100-200mm forecast this time last week to 19mm here in the last week. This has happened all throughout the summer, and this event coming up in the following week has also significantly backed off in the few models that were tipping it.
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#1413209 - 18/03/2017 19:23 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10454
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
A period of showery rain this afternoon has largely helped to bring 21.2mm since 9am this morning.
We've now had 307.8mm for the month to date. It's the wettest month here since February 2013 (395.0mm).

Originally Posted By: Blowin'
34.3 degrees here
Nice morning at happy valley. Can see the high cloud south of the border in the distance...
Hello from the other side -

(Photo taken by me at Smoky Cape this afternoon)

When an ECL is on or very close to the coast, it's always amazing to see how different the weather can be, you can go from torrential rain and gale force winds (sometimes stronger) to fine weather with lighter winds over quite a short distance (e.g. since 6am, Evans Head has had 166.8mm, but Ballina 40kms to the north has had 1.6mm over the same period). It's quite cruel to those on the northern side if they are desperate for rain though.

(New Italy is a locality on the Pacific Highway to the west of Evans Head)
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
November 2018 Rainfall: 74.8mm (November Avg. 115.2mm) // November 2018 Raindays: 9 (November Avg. 11.7 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1297.8mm (Jan-Nov Avg. 1357.1mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 120 (Jan-Nov Avg. 124.6 raindays)

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#1413210 - 18/03/2017 19:25 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5472
Below is an accumulating rainfall plume forecast for Brisbane for the next 7 days from the ensemble version of GFS (using last night's 12z run).

Caution - it only uses one ensemble, not the usual 3 used to create the other graphics I often post on here (for some reason, this one takes a huge amount of time to run) so it tends to reflect more what GFS is thinking rather than a more realistic representation of multiple models.
Therefore, I don't really like it but I'll post it here anyway for anyone's interest:




Edited by Ken Kato (18/03/2017 19:26)
Edit Reason: added run time

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#1413212 - 18/03/2017 19:32 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
Thrombus Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 25/02/2011
Posts: 34
Loc: Brisbane
Feeling your pessimism Lewis. Still waiting for some relief. The water tank is bone dry and the lawn is on it's last legs. The forecast and models are teasing us with promised rain but it's hard to maintain hope after so many near misses. We've had so many above 30deg days and in any other year that would produce at least a few storms. As BigT posted earlier this area has had approx 20mm since Jan 3rd with a few extra sprinkles yesterday. Went for a drive today and so many surrounding suburbs were green and lush so it would appear the forecast rain is being delivered to some just not others.

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#1413213 - 18/03/2017 19:42 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
wet sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/10/2015
Posts: 650
Loc: NENSW-Wet Subtropics
BoM are going for possible heavy fall tomorrow throughout the NR. Any reason for this? There is a northeasterly so there may be some chunky showers about?

Anyway, loving your map ken. Good so see all the green lines finishing above 25mm.

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#1413214 - 18/03/2017 19:45 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10454
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Forgot to mention, Major flood warning for the Bellinger River at Thora (Moderate expected at the moment for Bellingen, and minor on the coast at Urunga), Moderate flood warnings for the Hastings and Orara Rivers. There's a Minor flood warning for Coffs Creek.
http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/warnings/

Since 9am, there's been 245mm at Dorrigo, and 170mm at Meldrum (between Dorrigo and Ebor). They're getting some orographically-enhanced precipitation around that area today.


Edited by Seabreeze (18/03/2017 19:52)
Edit Reason: BOM just updated the Bellinger warning to add Major flooding
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
November 2018 Rainfall: 74.8mm (November Avg. 115.2mm) // November 2018 Raindays: 9 (November Avg. 11.7 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1297.8mm (Jan-Nov Avg. 1357.1mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 120 (Jan-Nov Avg. 124.6 raindays)

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#1413221 - 18/03/2017 20:17 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 309
Loc: Golden Beach
Thanks Ken, I am struggling trying to interpret the graph. After staring at it I have come to the conclusion that the models really have no idea what is going to happen. Could be anywhere between 40 and 250 mm over the next 8 days and a a trend line/average would be 120mm. Is it this average we are looking for as a deduction from this chart and if the models all have all the available information at present how can they possibly differ so much. Interested in your thoughts. Cheers

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#1413222 - 18/03/2017 20:36 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5472
The majority of scenarios typically tend to cluster around the most likely value. You can see from the above graph they're tightly clustered til Tue indicating fairly high confidence but then quickly diverge after that (and from the end of the week) due to uncertainty/sensitivity with the setup from Tue onwards.

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#1413224 - 18/03/2017 20:46 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 309
Loc: Golden Beach
Yes - that is a clever observation. So really we should not be looking much further than a couple of days ahead with the current available information. Must be a nightmare to forecast in a situation like this. That is why Livio's favourite word is "IF" i suppose.

Livio Regano is our fantastic channel seven weather dude.


Edited by Snapper22lb (18/03/2017 20:48)

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#1413227 - 18/03/2017 21:33 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Snapper22lb]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 458
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
Yes - that is a clever observation. So really we should not be looking much further than a couple of days ahead with the current available information. Must be a nightmare to forecast in a situation like this. That is why Livio's favourite word is "IF" i suppose.

Livio Regano is our fantastic channel seven weather dude.


Enjoying your storm Snapper?
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Records are MEANT to be broken.

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