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#1413465 - 19/03/2017 19:07 SA - Trough with Showers & Isolated Storms 19th-21st March 2017
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 510
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Mount Lofty Ranges District Forecast

Monday 20 March
Mostly sunny morning. Medium (40%) chance of showers and a possible thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Winds east to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light early in the morning then becoming east to southeasterly 20 to 30 km/h in the early afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 16 and 19 with daytime temperatures reaching 28 to 33.

Tuesday 21 March
Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers in the morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm on and east of the ranges in the afternoon and evening. Winds east to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h turning southeasterly 20 to 30 km/h during the morning and early afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 16 and 19 with daytime temperatures reaching the low to high 20s.


Teck, TH, and TS please add your thoughts grin

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#1413478 - 19/03/2017 20:34 Re: SA - Trough with Showers & Isolated Storms 19th-21st March 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17478
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
right my take then....

isolated showers/storms developing along the ranges and MN ranges tomorrow. More widespread south-east of Murray Bridge/Bordertown, particularly along convergence lines off the Coorong.
Wraparound developing overnight Monday from Victoria, with widespread shower/storm activity over the Lower SE and Kangaroo Island. Possibly also eastern border areas in the mallee.
On Tuesday, I think lower EP, Lower YP and the Fleurieu could see a bit in addition to KI and the SE, with Adelaide, the ranges, and the Mallee seeing development in the arvo as well.

Rainfall very variable.... Quite possible some places in the lower SE could see 50mm+, otherwise other areas mentioned its possible some places could see 10-20mm, but Adelaide and ranges limited to 2-10mm I think.

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#1413500 - 20/03/2017 04:58 Re: SA - Trough with Showers & Isolated Storms 19th-21st March 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
ThÜñDå HûÑtÅ Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
for monday..........
the moisture pool coming from the east has some concentrated
areas of hugh pwats, up to 50mm, so there will be some
reasonably decent areas of heavier falls. coming from the
east orographic uplift from the ranges will favour higher
rainfall on the eastern side of the ranges. the moisture pool
westerly dropoff gradient is quite steep and puts the eastern
side of the gulf/adelaide as on the line so final real life
analysis could see adelaide getting anything from 0 to 10+mm.
typically the further east the more to be had with the area
bounded between adelaide, the bridge, ki and kingston progged
to fair best along with anything south of kingston to
naracoorte.
current forecast forecast soundings over the ranges are ok
and if adelaide is not blanketed by cloud cover any
development over the ranges should look pretty spekky.
for tuesday.......what can i say?.......
anywhere north of the s.e. quiet but @#$%^&*%^$# for the s.e.
get your camera ready RS, i wanna see pics of this.
the whole place is primed with low level moisture, low level
shear is nuts and current forecast soundings show the lfc
line looking like something out of darwin and have the place
cranked up for hard core explosive development.
24hrs will tell if this holds, shifts or disappears.
pity tuesday wasn't a saturday i'd starting to be gear up to
go down there right now.

TH
_________________________



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#1413511 - 20/03/2017 08:00 Re: SA - Trough with Showers & Isolated Storms 19th-21st March 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 510
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Good stuff Teck & TH.

This mornings Mt Lofty District Forecast...
Forecast for the rest of Monday
Mostly sunny morning. Medium (60%) chance of showers and the chance of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the early afternoon then tending easterly in the late evening. Daytime maximum temperatures 28 to 33.

Adelaide Forecast...
Mostly sunny morning. Medium (40%) chance of showers and the chance of a thunderstorm during the afternoon and early evening. Light winds becoming southerly 15 to 25 km/h in the afternoon, then tending east to southeasterly in the evening.


Edited by Jet entrance (20/03/2017 08:02)
_________________________
“I hate it when somebody comes
to your front door and puts their finger
over the peephole . . . so to get around
that I've got eleven peepholes”.
Elliot Goblet

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#1413541 - 20/03/2017 09:55 Re: SA - Trough with Showers & Isolated Storms 19th-21st March 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17478
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
If I was able to chase today, Coonalpyn area would be my target area.

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#1413563 - 20/03/2017 12:42 Re: SA - Trough with Showers & Isolated Storms 19th-21st March 2017 [Re: teckert]
Pooley72 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/01/2017
Posts: 32
Loc: Seacliff Park
Originally Posted By: teckert
If I was able to chase today, Coonalpyn area would be my target area.


Well if that's the case the I'll be watching my Father-In-Laws PWS quite closely then ( Coonalpyn PWS ). The temps that it reports are a bit wacky but it's generally pretty accurate with rainfall and humidities.


Edited by Pooley72 (20/03/2017 12:43)
_________________________
My PWS: www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=INOARLUN2

Jan: 52.2mm
Feb: 32.8mm
Mar: 28.2mm
Apr: 39.6mm
May: 37.8mm
Jun: 14.4mm
Jul: 87.3mm
Aug:
Sep:
Oct:
Nov:
Dec:
2017: 205.0mm

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#1413570 - 20/03/2017 13:20 Re: SA - Trough with Showers & Isolated Storms 19th-21st March 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17478
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Hrmm.... watch for nocturnal development tonight with the assistance of the upper trough approaching from the west....

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#1413574 - 20/03/2017 13:32 Re: SA - Trough with Showers & Isolated Storms 19th-21st March 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 510
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Some nice Cu going up out there now, looks awesome grin
_________________________
“I hate it when somebody comes
to your front door and puts their finger
over the peephole . . . so to get around
that I've got eleven peepholes”.
Elliot Goblet

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#1413578 - 20/03/2017 13:55 Re: SA - Trough with Showers & Isolated Storms 19th-21st March 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6969
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Yes, towers going up fast from south, to west, to northwest smile .

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#1413585 - 20/03/2017 14:12 Re: SA - Trough with Showers & Isolated Storms 19th-21st March 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 545
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Oh, some big heavy rain drops here just now.

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#1413587 - 20/03/2017 14:21 Re: SA - Trough with Showers & Isolated Storms 19th-21st March 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1586
Loc: Bridgewater
city just recorded some rain
something developing on the radar

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#1413588 - 20/03/2017 14:23 Re: SA - Trough with Showers & Isolated Storms 19th-21st March 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17478
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Yer been getting some shots of it... it's dumped 7mm in no time.

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#1413593 - 20/03/2017 14:35 Re: SA - Trough with Showers & Isolated Storms 19th-21st March 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 510
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Getting pounded here at Nth B!!!
_________________________
“I hate it when somebody comes
to your front door and puts their finger
over the peephole . . . so to get around
that I've got eleven peepholes”.
Elliot Goblet

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#1413594 - 20/03/2017 14:35 Re: SA - Trough with Showers & Isolated Storms 19th-21st March 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 510
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Thunder only a matter of minutes now
_________________________
“I hate it when somebody comes
to your front door and puts their finger
over the peephole . . . so to get around
that I've got eleven peepholes”.
Elliot Goblet

Top
#1413595 - 20/03/2017 14:37 Re: SA - Trough with Showers & Isolated Storms 19th-21st March 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 545
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Several claps of thunder - can't see the city through my weather webcam - obscured by rain.

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#1413597 - 20/03/2017 14:48 Re: SA - Trough with Showers & Isolated Storms 19th-21st March 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
red earth Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/12/2007
Posts: 361
Loc: Lockleys, Adelaide
Thunder and a heavy sun shower down near the airport.

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#1413598 - 20/03/2017 14:50 Re: SA - Trough with Showers & Isolated Storms 19th-21st March 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 510
Loc: North Brighton, SA
And Thor didn't let me down, boooom!
_________________________
“I hate it when somebody comes
to your front door and puts their finger
over the peephole . . . so to get around
that I've got eleven peepholes”.
Elliot Goblet

Top
#1413600 - 20/03/2017 14:55 Re: SA - Trough with Showers & Isolated Storms 19th-21st March 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 510
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Ok that Blackwood cell is serious now, that must be pelting down under that core!
_________________________
“I hate it when somebody comes
to your front door and puts their finger
over the peephole . . . so to get around
that I've got eleven peepholes”.
Elliot Goblet

Top
#1413601 - 20/03/2017 14:55 Re: SA - Trough with Showers & Isolated Storms 19th-21st March 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
Pooley72 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/01/2017
Posts: 32
Loc: Seacliff Park
Well that came out of nowhere (sort of), 6mm in 10 mins at a rate of 35mm p/hour. Couple of rumbles over head as well *big grin*
_________________________
My PWS: www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=INOARLUN2

Jan: 52.2mm
Feb: 32.8mm
Mar: 28.2mm
Apr: 39.6mm
May: 37.8mm
Jun: 14.4mm
Jul: 87.3mm
Aug:
Sep:
Oct:
Nov:
Dec:
2017: 205.0mm

Top
#1413603 - 20/03/2017 14:57 Re: SA - Trough with Showers & Isolated Storms 19th-21st March 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 510
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Bigger cells (like the Blackwood one) will move more from the NE to SW
_________________________
“I hate it when somebody comes
to your front door and puts their finger
over the peephole . . . so to get around
that I've got eleven peepholes”.
Elliot Goblet

Top
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