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#1412916 - 17/03/2017 11:22 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: ThD Ht]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6842
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: ThD Ht
ahh that's better naz, now i know what your talking about.

I changed it to move on from this...

Teckert was right by the way in post #1411628 - 10/03/2017 19:56.


Edited by Seira (17/03/2017 11:31)
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#1412949 - 17/03/2017 15:29 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
we both bin here a long time, no matter how many times you
change your name i'll always know and remember you as nasdek.
which has now got me thinking, why did you change to cosmos?
and i'm not having a go, i'm genuinely interested as probably
are others, and i won't take issue if you don't answer.
----------------------------
Teckert was right by the way in post #1411628 - 10/03/2017 19:56.
----------------------------
it's all a matter of opinion and perspective.
if a mod decides E=MC then right or wrong that's it, it's not
open for discussion, negotiation, augment, comment, questioning
or debate. it's just the way it is.

here's another thunda quote for ya..........
------------------
after all is said and done, right or wrong, moral or immoral,
good or evil from a global scale down to family and friends
power and control belongs to whoever wields the biggest stick.
------------------
think about it trendsetters, it really is as simple as that.

ok, so after masticating on that low and heaving it into the
spitoon in this mornings run gfs has actually fallen somewhat
into line with access as far as scenario goes but as far as
timing goes they are seriously out of sync, hardcore heavy
duty big time. same/similar scenario several days apart.
after gfs's run of crap reliability lately i'd be putting
any spondoolicks on access. the biggest problem is neither
of them have it shaping up as a major break and this far out
the whole thing could just as easily disappear in a puff of
late summer dust although having said that for now this
afternoons run has ever so slightly upgraded from this
mornings.

TH
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#1412957 - 17/03/2017 15:53 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: ThD Ht]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2061
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Its quite possible to disappear in puff of late summer dust Thunda although having said that i am haphazardly approaching this system with caution as its got my neck of the woods projected to receive 5-10mm of rain next Monday with a 70% likely-hood followed by Tuesday and Wednesday having less than 1mm at 50% and 30% chances then a sunny day on Thursday

Although as we already know here in SA the weather does have a tendency to change over a period of 12-24 and 24-48 hours so whilst 1 run may have forecast so much rain another 2 runs after that generally sees a system or front back off in terms of falls

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#1413008 - 17/03/2017 18:20 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
yer that's a different one from what i was talking about RS but
thanks for the heads up, that sort of fell through the cracks
while i was looking at that cyclone potential.
a developing trough over s.a. interacting with a retrograde pool
of moisture from the east, shallow penetration into s.a. means,
border areas are in the box seat.
you can pack the ark away, it wont be needed for this one.
havn't looked into storm potential but it's there, i'm up to my
ears in other stuff atm, maybe Teck or someone else can look
into and elaborate on this one.

TH
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#1413125 - 18/03/2017 13:08 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: ThD Ht]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6842
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: ThD Ht
we both bin here a long time, no matter how many times you
change your name i'll always know and remember you as nasdek.
which has now got me thinking, why did you change to cosmos?
and i'm not having a go, i'm genuinely interested as probably
are others, and i won't take issue if you don't answer.

Not having a go eitherjust have a lot of stuff going on the last week, trying to maintain my autonomy amongst various work issues.

The reason I changed my pseudonym to -Cosmic- (with naz on the end) was a reference to an activity group I was a member of for a while (years), unrelated to this forum. It implies unpredictability, or mysticism. Due to other recent issues in my life, I changed -Cosmic- to Seira because I consider it to be non-binary (in reference to gender). By changing my name, the issues subsided somewhat, not just online.


Edited by Seira (18/03/2017 13:15)
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#1413143 - 18/03/2017 14:26 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
thanks for that, i see where your coming from now, makes a
difference knowing some background, the first thing i did
with seira was google it and all it really come up with was
a couple of global place names.
i'm glad the issues have subsided, i hope they disappear
altogether for you although having said that for as long
as i'm metabolising atmosphere there's probably precious
little chance of that happening. poke
what an absolutely drop dead gorgeous day, almost feels
good to be alive, with the emphasis on 'almost'.
might be a few drops from a bit of a wraparound as the
trough/low passes next week for adelaide as things stand
at the moment.

TH
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#1413215 - 18/03/2017 19:48 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6842
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
In reference to dry conditions (I'll say that rather than drought or even serious drought, because it's not a dust-bowl up in the Hills yet, very stark contrast from over a year ago)...I was envisaging the sub-tropical higher-pressure belt (north of the westerlies) becoming a nuisance (for rainfall development), because upper rossby-waves (rather than surface troughs or fronts) have to edge in-between the high in the east (currently south of Adelaide) and the 576-thickness doing its wandering near SW WA.

[The upper waves seems pretty necessary for lower atmospheric instability because they make the higher troposphere much cooler than otherwise, which is required for strong uplift - steeper parcel lapse-rates - above cloud-base height. Otherwise there will be too much subsidence.]

As long as the upper rossby-wave remains "blocked" by the ridges moving east, I am of the impression cut-off lows (plural) and the like have a much higher potential of reaching -35 degrees South, 139 degrees East.


Edited by Seira (18/03/2017 19:53)
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#1413216 - 18/03/2017 19:49 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17456
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Looks pretty good for some storms/showers on and east of the ranges on Monday, probably much better though along the eastern border/SE areas. Tuesday looks possibly okish more for the MN.

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#1413379 - 19/03/2017 13:57 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 477
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Looks a bit like one of TH's dogs breakfasts the next few days, no models agreeing with any sort pattern. The smell of the air divided by Teck's forecast mutliplied by TH's Weber pork roast suggests a few convective showers over the ranges and East of tomorrow and Tuesday, But hey, that is just based the Dale equation theory grin

Been trying to work out since 7:30pm last night what "MN" means crazy


Edited by Jet entrance (19/03/2017 13:59)
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#1413385 - 19/03/2017 14:13 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Jet entrance]
red earth Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/12/2007
Posts: 361
Loc: Lockleys, Adelaide
Originally Posted By: Jet entrance


Been trying to work out since 7:30pm last night what "MN" means crazy


My guess is mid-north.

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#1413409 - 19/03/2017 16:10 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
willitrainagain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 509
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
Might not?

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#1413423 - 19/03/2017 16:41 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1619
Loc: Uleybury
MN is the abbreviation for Mid North

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#1413455 - 19/03/2017 18:18 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 477
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Right yeah thanks SC, that makes sense.
_________________________
I hate it when somebody comes
to your front door and puts their finger
over the peephole . . . so to get around
that I've got eleven peepholes.
Elliot Goblet

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#1413464 - 19/03/2017 19:03 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2061
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Well mother nature has upped the ante for tomorrow and Tuesday for the LSE and border areas originally Mount Gambier was projected to get 5-10 mm Monday but now its been upped to 10-20 as same with the mention of storms during the arvo/evening

Hoping for a light show or even a few CC strikes anything to cure my SDS just have to wait and see tomorrow

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#1413493 - 19/03/2017 22:38 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 477
Loc: North Brighton, SA
_________________________
I hate it when somebody comes
to your front door and puts their finger
over the peephole . . . so to get around
that I've got eleven peepholes.
Elliot Goblet

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#1414979 - 24/03/2017 19:36 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
jeeze i could fire a shotgun in here and not hit a single post.
good weather for fishing by the looks.(*checks over shoulder
for Teck.)
time to turn up the wick,
i took a look at the models after work and thought wtf with
these forecast temps, i feel an upgrade coming on.
and sure enough sundays going to be just warm enough to
tickle the cocklels of thy marrow.
i would dare say the first vestiges if foam would just about
be starting to appear in the corners of galaxymans mouth over
the anticipation of the upcoming sunday. it ain't no bone
flaker but it sure as hell ain't no southerly buster either.
that will occurr on monday in the wee small hours for adelaide,
around late morning to lunchtime for the riverland according
to gfs at the moment. not a bad strike of heat for this late
in the month but then again i shouldn't be surprised seeing as
i've been waffling on about a 6-8 week seasonal offset.
looks like a reasonably general rain for the s.e. quadrant of
s.a.(which is different from the upper and lower se as we know
it) but there looks to be not too much in it but enough for
the proverbial dust settler, we'll see if them dust particles
can laugh their ass off at this lot.
actually gfs is progging this to be a pretty dry change, just
have to wait to get a bit closer for something a bit more
definative.

TH



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#1415044 - 24/03/2017 22:23 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Matt_30 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/09/2008
Posts: 62
Loc: Adelaide
Yep; as a heat lover was pretty happy to see that forecast upgrade for Sunday; did have a feeling it may have been on.

BoM certainly also running with a pretty dry change.

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#1415341 - 25/03/2017 15:20 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 501
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Oh - there is some rain apparent on the radar over Yorkes heading this way .. wonder if it will make it?

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#1415369 - 25/03/2017 15:57 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
pretty much no and that's speaking for either way.
the front edge is fading as it advances.
if it gets here to be overhead that's all it will be.
from what i can see it's virga, cloud base is around 15+thou'
so its got a long way to go through dry lowers.
theres the odd brief yellow patch on the southern edge
generated by uplift which may enhance as things appoach but
all very iffy and anyone will be lucky to get any spots.

it looks like the front for early monday rushes up at us,
screams boo and then falls away to nothing.
there is a second front that appears to come up and give us a
bit more of a fright on wednesay, even looks at this stage to
have one of those coveted winter sub 540tkns coldpools rearing
it's ugly moosh at us and that gfs has sneaking up and clipping
the short and curlies of any poor unsuspecting soul in the s.e.
nothing there i'd be inclined to call triple 0 about unless
they have an emergency boring line......."hello!....i'm bored
s**tless and need something to happen quick." no problem
sir....just give us your address and well have a couple of
nice men in clean white uniforms to come and take you away,
he he ha ha haw haw.
talikng about getting clipped, i think a slow moving turd is
about to hit a fast moving fan up in queensland. bom are
sniffing at cat 4, dat is not good.

TH

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#1415447 - 25/03/2017 18:24 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
ok, just my luck i get lucky and getting a few spots here now.
at a quick uneducated guess approx 17.26 spts per sq m.
had to count them quick before they evaporated.

TH
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