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#1389912 - 10/10/2016 11:06 QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4603
Not sure if this is the right place to create this thread for the upcoming 2016/2017 TC season for the Eastern Region.

Anyway thought I'd kick it off with the latest TC seasonal outlook from the Bureau: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/cyclones/australia/#tabs=Outlook

Explanatory video:


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#1389962 - 10/10/2016 19:46 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24809
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Thanks Ken. Hope we get something interesting this year. Just choked watching the news where they said this cyclone season could be bad because soil is already saturated!! Lol
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
September 2017 total - 1.4mm (11mm)
October 2017 total - 95.0mm (26mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 801.4mm (1122mm)

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#1389965 - 10/10/2016 20:27 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23545
Loc: Townsville
Im tipping a TC between Cairns and Mackay this season, its been a few years now.
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2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1389968 - 10/10/2016 20:50 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
I'm tipping at least a few between the Solomons and NZ. poke
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1389970 - 10/10/2016 20:57 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23545
Loc: Townsville
#graveyard
_________________________
2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1389971 - 10/10/2016 20:58 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23545
Loc: Townsville
I cant deal with pops talkin crap all season so I hope WA have a massive year haha poke
_________________________
2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1389973 - 10/10/2016 20:59 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24809
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
im hoping the gulf will give us some good juice this year. gulf been too quiet lately.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
September 2017 total - 1.4mm (11mm)
October 2017 total - 95.0mm (26mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 801.4mm (1122mm)

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#1389978 - 10/10/2016 21:14 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1446
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
I'm hoping SE QLD gets smashed... smile
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If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1390104 - 12/10/2016 12:38 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
tag Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/12/2010
Posts: 477
Loc: Alligator creek
QLD - 3
WA - 1 ( And pops on some strong medication and hallucinating about a CAT 8 coming in)

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#1390135 - 12/10/2016 17:37 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Nahh no need for medications over here, severe weather is our drug of choice. Big 50,000 foot thunderstorms every arvo, sweet electrical storms and decent TC's (more than the 3 x 996hpa TC's that QLD will get this season). As for WA 1???? Considering BOM have said an above average. Western region gets 7, Nwest gets 5 so 12+ TC's over West this year sorry.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1390137 - 12/10/2016 17:42 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: paulcirrus]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17870
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
I'm hoping SE QLD gets smashed... smile


I'm not.

Meanwhile it is a brave or foolhardy soul that tries to challenge WA on TC counts.
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"Don't steal. The government hates competition."

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#1390198 - 13/10/2016 14:09 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4341
Loc: Brisbane
As someone whose just gotten there drivers licence at age 50 I'm hoping for 3 things this season.

1) We get a solid system crossing the QLD coast.
2) I'm able to get time off work to chase said system.
3) Said system crosses coast at a point where the impact on life and property are kept to a minimum but is still chasable.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1391022 - 22/10/2016 20:05 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 461
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Mick10, I laughed when I saw the same. So I begun digging...where this saturated ground is I am still yet to discover. Now as for cyclones, i wouldn't mind a rain heavy low or cat 1 or 2 along the whole Qld coast. Before making a u turn and coming back up the coast hahaha... Wishful thinking that second part.
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Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Oct 2017]: 304.4mm (Ave 74.9mm)
Sept 2017: 12.9mm (avg 35.6mm)
YTD 2017 1484.2mm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1391069 - 23/10/2016 14:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
wilyms Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 118
Loc: Roma, Qld
Probably this -
Bom climate - Soil Moisture

No red (below avg) in Qld for September

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#1391533 - 28/10/2016 14:35 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: wilyms]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 461
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Originally Posted By: wilyms
Probably this -
Bom climate - Soil Moisture

No red (below avg) in Qld for September




That is so inaccurate, No way was my Soil Moisture above average, It was dry as a bone mins after it rained.
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Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Oct 2017]: 304.4mm (Ave 74.9mm)
Sept 2017: 12.9mm (avg 35.6mm)
YTD 2017 1484.2mm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1391534 - 28/10/2016 14:41 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4603
Did you dig down to one metre down below the surface at multiple points though?

Things like soil types, topography, depth of the water table, etc will cause subsurface soil moisture at point locations to vary from those shown on the map. The map is an approximation, interpolating between data points and one point location is not representative of the bigger picture. The map is also averaged across the month rather than being necessarily representative of what every day of the month was like.


Edited by Ken Kato (28/10/2016 14:45)
Edit Reason: added stuff

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#1391756 - 30/10/2016 17:38 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 461
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Ok I stand corrected....I took the data as literal...
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Oct 2017]: 304.4mm (Ave 74.9mm)
Sept 2017: 12.9mm (avg 35.6mm)
YTD 2017 1484.2mm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1391799 - 30/10/2016 20:56 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23545
Loc: Townsville
Marcia seems so long ago

But still my fav system !
_________________________
2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1391805 - 30/10/2016 21:11 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6317
Loc: Near Yeppoon
They are finally fixing the Scenic Highway now after Marcia damaged the cliff. Only took nearly 2 years.
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#1393193 - 12/11/2016 10:02 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
bbowen Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/03/2011
Posts: 115
GFS now showing the possibility of a low at about the +192 hr mark(approx the 19th Nov), off the QLD coast. Nothing on EC yet, but CMC also agrees. Maybe the first signs that conditions are becoming favourable in theory. Not sure the below link works but should at least point you in the right direction.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/e...MO=&PERIOD=


Edited by bbowen (12/11/2016 10:02)

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