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#1411500 - 09/03/2017 18:37 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Pan]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 149
Originally Posted By: Pan
Thank you Ken, I don't read much here anymore as it seems to me that it is a group of people who lust for a cyclone, most I suspect have never experienced a serious one. A rain event yes bring it on a major cyclone only brings heart ache for humans and "animals" ops humans are animals. But you bring a balanced view so thank you.


Totally agree Pan. Has blown me away as to how desperate people are to see a Cyclone. No thanks. Saw enough of TC Larry and a number of other along the way. I'm just here to learn and educate myself to assist with my career.

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#1411502 - 09/03/2017 18:39 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 149
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Blair Trewin is probably the best person to answer that MangroveJack since I can't recall when the latest one on record was.

There were one or two TC's out near the northeastern Coral Sea close to midyear recently (the Brisbane TCWC actually had to be activated well outside the official season) which was pretty amazing but I can't remember off-hand the exact month it was (so whether you could call that a late finish or an early start to the season is open to debate).

My understanding is that the further back in time you look at records of TC's in the era before satellites and stricter reporting/classifying methods, the less reliable the records tend to be. Also, some east coast lows were called cyclones which then gave people the impression that they were non-hybrid tropical cyclones.

EC is currently suggesting a belt of vorticity developing across the Coral Sea towards the end of this week and weekend along which one or more small circulations try to spin up. Whenever there's a stretched out belt of vorticity like that, any number of circulations can try to spin up anywhere along it, not necessarily in the exact spots that models put them.

Whether >34kt of sustained wind can wrap more than halfway around any of their centres for long enough to satisfy TC criteria or whether they just stay as weak small lows (or even just a trough) is open to a bit of debate but below is the EC wind map for Fri afternoon anyway:




Thanks for that Ken. As Pan has said, you always bring some balance to the Forum. smile

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#1411543 - 09/03/2017 21:58 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: MangroveJack70]
Dan101 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 240
Loc: Mackay, QLD
Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
...Has blown me away as to how desperate people are to see a Cyclone...


Pun intended? smirk

Whether you want to see a cyclone or not, likes/dislikes/lusts do not change the weather.

However, if we can better understand and predict what causes these events and why they unfold the way they do, we can be much better prepared (physically and psychologically) when they do happen.

Two things are certain:

1. Posts from members such as Ken Kato will always be a welcome and valuable addition to the forum as they educate others who are interested in the weather. That is why we are here, isn't it?

2. Posts which categorise/stereotype the majority of forum participants as 'thrill seekers' or 'ill wishers' add absolutely no value to the forum.

[/rant]

Back on topic: "QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017"

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#1411554 - 10/03/2017 06:47 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Pan Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 10/03/2013
Posts: 28
Loc: Daintree
My most memorable was cyclone Joan, Port Headland 1996, 12 months after Tracey smacked Darwin around the ears. Retired now but then I was operating the town power station, lost all by 9 pm, the usual, roof sheets around lines etc. By around midday the following day power was restored to the hospital by running wires via any standing poles, they took a direct hit. Quite a few since then.

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#1411609 - 10/03/2017 16:53 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Dan101]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 267
Loc: Townsville
Originally Posted By: Dan101
Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
...Has blown me away as to how desperate people are to see a Cyclone...


Pun intended? smirk

Whether you want to see a cyclone or not, likes/dislikes/lusts do not change the weather.

However, if we can better understand and predict what causes these events and why they unfold the way they do, we can be much better prepared (physically and psychologically) when they do happen.

Two things are certain:

1. Posts from members such as Ken Kato will always be a welcome and valuable addition to the forum as they educate others who are interested in the weather. That is why we are here, isn't it?

2. Posts which categorise/stereotype the majority of forum participants as 'thrill seekers' or 'ill wishers' add absolutely no value to the forum.

[/rant]

Back on topic: "QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017"

Who exactly are you quoting?

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#1411647 - 10/03/2017 21:42 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Red Watch]
Dan101 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 240
Loc: Mackay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Red Watch
Originally Posted By: Dan101
Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
...Has blown me away as to how desperate people are to see a Cyclone...


Pun intended? smirk

Whether you want to see a cyclone or not, likes/dislikes/lusts do not change the weather.

However, if we can better understand and predict what causes these events and why they unfold the way they do, we can be much better prepared (physically and psychologically) when they do happen.

Two things are certain:

1. Posts from members such as Ken Kato will always be a welcome and valuable addition to the forum as they educate others who are interested in the weather. That is why we are here, isn't it?

2. Posts which categorise/stereotype the majority of forum participants as 'thrill seekers' or 'ill wishers' add absolutely no value to the forum.

[/rant]

Back on topic: "QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017"

Who exactly are you quoting?


Not really quoting as such, more reading between the lines of Pan's claim that this forum is "a group of people who lust for a cyclone". It was the undertone of Pan's post suggesting that this "group of people" is inferior in some way which was most irritating and totally unnecessary IMO... Onward and upward.


Edited by Dan101 (10/03/2017 21:57)

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#1411653 - 10/03/2017 22:10 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24710
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
For those of us in Townsville, a cyclone is the only real chance we have of saving our water supply this year. Now into march, highly unlikely a low will form near the coast. Only hope is a cyclone from the CS. We know how well the CS has been tgis season.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
April 2017 total - 12.2mm (62mm)
May 2017 total - 177.6mm (32mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 692.8mm (1122mm)

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#1411654 - 10/03/2017 22:10 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 267
Loc: Townsville
Some do lust on here.....example "I'm hoping SE QLD gets smashed... :)" but most people like me are here to read different people's options of unfolding events which can be useful if you cant form your own opinion on a certain outcome. And no I don't wish for a cyclone to top up the dam as i'm flat out affording insurance since the premium hike from Cyclone Yasi.....almost 5 times increase since 2010.


Edited by Red Watch (10/03/2017 22:18)

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#1411659 - 10/03/2017 22:30 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Red Watch]
Dan101 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 240
Loc: Mackay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Red Watch
Some do lust on here.....example "I'm hoping SE QLD gets smashed... :)" but most people like me are here to read different people's options of unfolding events which can be useful if you cant form your own opinion on a certain outcome.

Totally agree Red Watch.


Originally Posted By: Mick10
For those of us in Townsville, a cyclone is the only real chance we have of saving our water supply this year. Now into march, highly unlikely a low will form near the coast. Only hope is a cyclone from the CS. We know how well the CS has been tgis season.


It's definitely been remarkable to say the least. No complaints from Mackay - even though we tend to miss out on most of the storms that approach from the west due to our close proximity to the range, we usually make up for it in rainfall from moist north-easterlies and convergence due to the orientation of our coastline. Feel for you guys up there in Brownsville... frown. A coast-hugger would be ideal...

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#1411687 - 11/03/2017 10:58 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24710
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
cheers Dan, being in a rain shadow the only decent heavy rain get is obviously from the North east or north. Its been a really good storm season, so many troughs and the like but like Mackay most of missed us or be too isolated and hit one part of the city and totally miss the other. havent had one decent 'rain' event though all season, a district wide event anywhere in Qld.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
April 2017 total - 12.2mm (62mm)
May 2017 total - 177.6mm (32mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 692.8mm (1122mm)

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#1411688 - 11/03/2017 11:01 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
KBO Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/01/2015
Posts: 98
Loc: Cairns
With the lack of TCs in the Coral Sea.
I have had a personal suspicion (unproven) that there is a link between coral bleaching higher water temps.
As we know TCs help in vacuuming out high sea temps.
No TCs may well have a hand in this issue especially in the reefs north of Cooktown, last year there were reports of major damaged from bleaching in these areas, I see there is noises in the media about expecting another large bleaching event this year.

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#1411692 - 11/03/2017 11:41 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4354
Yep there's been research done in the past overseas that indicates repeated TC's over the same region can offset coral bleaching via hurricane wake cooling (the winds churning up colder water from below). It comes with a lot of caveats and complications though.
For one, the effectiveness and consistency of it has been tricky to quantify.
It's also a bit of a double edge sword in that strong TC's can also damage coral under them.
Also, you'd have to factor in ocean bathymetry (e.g. the fact that many coral species occur in very shallow water where there's not that much colder water under the surface to mix up because it's so shallow unless the colder water is advected in from somewhere else).

And probably the most obvious one is that the warmer than normal water temps is the thing that causes the coral bleaching in the first place and that hurricane wake cooling isn't always enough to offset this.

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#1411713 - 11/03/2017 17:32 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Red Watch]
weather junky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/06/2004
Posts: 454
Loc: brinsmead cairns
Originally Posted By: Red Watch
Some do lust on here.....example "I'm hoping SE QLD gets smashed... :)" but most people like me are here to read different people's options of unfolding events which can be useful if you cant form your own opinion on a certain outcome. And no I don't wish for a cyclone to top up the dam as i'm flat out affording insurance since the premium hike from Cyclone Yasi.....almost 5 times increase since 2010.


Agree . Insurance companies = RAPE

Looks like rotation near Willis Island .

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#1411772 - 12/03/2017 00:03 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 267
Loc: Townsville
EC on www.windytv.com has that rotation heading south and dying out near the Whitsundays, I think it is part of that elongated trough that gave us some rain and moved out to sea taking the rain with it. Lets hope it drops off some rain on the way down.

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#1411810 - 12/03/2017 11:27 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6752
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
it's looks like we got a Tropical low in the Goc and the coral sea.



Edited by Mathew (12/03/2017 11:27)
_________________________
Rs tl 2016/17 Wet Season.
Rt: > 5/10/17 6.10mm >
Rt: 18 Jan 2017 > >
> > p 24 h 35.81mm 05/15/17 122.69mm - 6/01/17 0.00mm p 24 h 0.00mm
T now 21.2C > Tm 26.1C minT 15.2C H 67% W 2.5kmG 6.1km BAROMETRIC 763.8mmhg 9:06pm 6/26/17 > re update

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#1411964 - 13/03/2017 09:11 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
KBO Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/01/2015
Posts: 98
Loc: Cairns
As always Ken, you explain everything well and your worth your weight in gold.

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#1412000 - 13/03/2017 13:20 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Dan101 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 240
Loc: Mackay, QLD

Feature in today's Daily Mercury re lack of activity this season...


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#1412680 - 16/03/2017 09:29 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 458
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Access is showing something next week. Something to watch
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Apr 2017]: 5.1mm (Ave 130.4mm)
Mar 2017: 246.3mm (avg 468.4mm)
YTD 2017 912.8mm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1412690 - 16/03/2017 10:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4354
Thanks KBO smile

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#1412871 - 16/03/2017 23:04 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: rainthisway]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 267
Loc: Townsville
Originally Posted By: rainthisway
Access is showing something next week. Something to watch

It shows a small cyclone hitting the Pilbara region next wednesday at the moment.

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