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#1413277 - 18/03/2017 23:58 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24809
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Both access and ec developing first tc of the season in the coral sea, wont take you long to figure out which way they send it! frown
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
September 2017 total - 1.4mm (11mm)
October 2017 total - 95.0mm (26mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 801.4mm (1122mm)

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#1413318 - 19/03/2017 09:23 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4850
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Originally Posted By: Mick10
Both access and ec developing first tc of the season in the coral sea, wont take you long to figure out which way they send it! frown


Let me guess. West straight into the North coast and then stalling over the Ross river dam?

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#1413321 - 19/03/2017 09:43 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
RichieM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/08/2015
Posts: 82
Loc: Manunda, Cairns
Correct me if I'm wrong but looking at the Access G models it has a low/cyclone crossing the coast between Cairns and Townsville on Tuesday the 28th.

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#1413346 - 19/03/2017 11:27 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24809
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
lol Brett, could only hope! but Richie is right, this mornings access run has a low/tc just off townsville, last night runs has both models pushing the system out to sea. still a week out so too far out for consistency but some hope. slight hope.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
September 2017 total - 1.4mm (11mm)
October 2017 total - 95.0mm (26mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 801.4mm (1122mm)

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#1413660 - 20/03/2017 17:44 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6555
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
EC still with the TC at the end of the run. Looks like it'd head W or NW under the ridge if it doesn't get caught by the trough.

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#1413674 - 20/03/2017 18:13 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mega]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 149
Originally Posted By: Mega
EC still with the TC at the end of the run. Looks like it'd head W or NW under the ridge if it doesn't get caught by the trough.


Hey Mega. Curious as to which site you're using. Any chance you could share.

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#1413676 - 20/03/2017 18:22 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: MangroveJack70]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6555
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
Originally Posted By: Mega
EC still with the TC at the end of the run. Looks like it'd head W or NW under the ridge if it doesn't get caught by the trough.


Hey Mega. Curious as to which site you're using. Any chance you could share.


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/...0&xpos=0&ypos=0

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#1413679 - 20/03/2017 18:26 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mega]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 149
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
Originally Posted By: Mega
EC still with the TC at the end of the run. Looks like it'd head W or NW under the ridge if it doesn't get caught by the trough.


Hey Mega. Curious as to which site you're using. Any chance you could share.


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/...0&xpos=0&ypos=0


Thanks hey. Has been interesting watching the Models with this one for sure.

It's bucketing down just south of Cairns at the moment. There was a marked shift in weather which began yesterday afternoon. Some places got a solid 20mm in an hour, and the Cloud cover this afternoon was extremely dense.

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#1413689 - 20/03/2017 18:55 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6555
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
ACCESS-G has a crossing around Ingham now too.

Could be the one you've all been waiting for as far as rainfall goes...I know it's been a very long and dry year up there there apart from some very isolated pockets of heavy rainfall. Just hope if it does head west that it doesn't bring too much damage with it. Also wouldn't say for sure it's even going to head west...there is still some annoying troughing in the Coral Sea until late next weekend which will try to pull it away to the SE at first.

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#1413691 - 20/03/2017 18:56 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Geee. Go QLD. EC has a nice little impact for you. Lets see if you guys can get something up and going to the coast. WA looks to be struggling getting Caleb off the list. It might be you guys that tick that one off instead.
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#1413692 - 20/03/2017 18:57 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mega]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 391
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
Originally Posted By: Mega
EC still with the TC at the end of the run. Looks like it'd head W or NW under the ridge if it doesn't get caught by the trough.


Hey Mega. Curious as to which site you're using. Any chance you could share.


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/...0&xpos=0&ypos=0


I was going to say. That must have to be an error on the EC run since all the other runs had it going to the Graveyard. Checked Access G is forecasting exactly the same in tonight's run as well.

So... maybe it won't get captured by the upper trough.
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#1413693 - 20/03/2017 18:59 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6555
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Squeako_88


So... maybe it won't get captured by the upper trough.


lol this is the Coral Sea we're talking about, definitely not something I'd be willing to bet on.

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#1413699 - 20/03/2017 19:12 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mega]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 149
Originally Posted By: Mega
ACCESS-G has a crossing around Ingham now too.

Could be the one you've all been waiting for as far as rainfall goes...I know it's been a very long and dry year up there there apart from some very isolated pockets of heavy rainfall. Just hope if it does head west that it doesn't bring too much damage with it. Also wouldn't say for sure it's even going to head west...there is still some annoying troughing in the Coral Sea until late next weekend which will try to pull it away to the SE at first.


Yeah. If anything, it could bring some solid rain with it which in the case of Ingham, had extensive flooding some years back. Can't exactly remember what led to it, but it was flooded for a number of days.

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#1413703 - 20/03/2017 19:20 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
KBO Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/01/2015
Posts: 104
Loc: Cairns
Hmmmm ten days out.
But it's been a long time since the models have shown anything. When I think about it, we generally have had 10 false starts and 3 off to the SE graveyard buy now.

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#1413723 - 20/03/2017 20:11 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: MangroveJack70]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1039
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
Originally Posted By: Mega
ACCESS-G has a crossing around Ingham now too.

Could be the one you've all been waiting for as far as rainfall goes...I know it's been a very long and dry year up there there apart from some very isolated pockets of heavy rainfall. Just hope if it does head west that it doesn't bring too much damage with it. Also wouldn't say for sure it's even going to head west...there is still some annoying troughing in the Coral Sea until late next weekend which will try to pull it away to the SE at first.


Yeah. If anything, it could bring some solid rain with it which in the case of Ingham, had extensive flooding some years back. Can't exactly remember what led to it, but it was flooded for a number of days.


Cyclone Ellie 2009...

A week out. I'm not holding out any hope that this will occur until we are 3 days out. Forcastsing so far this year has not been on par.
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Ingham - Golden Gumboot holder of the Northern Region - cuz we steal Townsville's Rain!

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#1413740 - 20/03/2017 21:07 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23545
Loc: Townsville
Ahhh TC Ellie...good memories

Burdekin Falls 6m over the spillway.
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2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1413749 - 20/03/2017 21:53 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 335
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
GFS MONDAY 06Z run has a weak low of 1011 hPa hitting near Hinchinbrook Island on Sunday so they mustn't think it is going to deepen, but as always only time will tell.

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#1413752 - 20/03/2017 22:12 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4603
As at time of writing, the EC ensemble currently has 10 to 20% of its forecast members suggesting a TC in the Coral Sea within the next 10 days.

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#1413767 - 20/03/2017 23:27 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Dan101 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 241
Loc: Mackay, QLD
Looking at ACCESSG, EC and UKMET deterministic runs, there is quite remarkable agreement between all of these out to the 7-10day period for this system. See below.

Also worth a mention that ACCESSG has been tipping this for the last 36hrs or so, with EC and UKMET coming on board in their latest runs. GFS not on board... yet... Something to watch at least.

ACCESSG - Intensifying Category 1 TC on 27th March:



EC - Intensifying Category 2 TC on 29th March:



UKMET - Intensifying Category 2 TC on 27th March:


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#1413785 - 21/03/2017 05:06 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Dan101]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 149
Originally Posted By: Dan101
Looking at ACCESSG, EC and UKMET deterministic runs, there is quite remarkable agreement between all of these out to the 7-10day period for this system. See below.

Also worth a mention that ACCESSG has been tipping this for the last 36hrs or so, with EC and UKMET coming on board in their latest runs. GFS not on board... yet... Something to watch at least.

ACCESSG - Intensifying Category 1 TC on 27th March:



EC - Intensifying Category 2 TC on 29th March:



UKMET - Intensifying Category 2 TC on 27th March:




Hey Dan,

GFS suggestive of a system developing ESE from Cairns around March 30, which then moves westward. Position at 5 April can be found at Wondermap (https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap?z...i=0&ls=0&rad2=0).

Apologies, would have share a pic however i'm unsure as to how you guys do that.

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