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#1393736 - 14/11/2016 14:10 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2713
Loc: Buderim
EC wants a weak low now as well. And CMC looks then develops this low into something significant(but EC and GFS don't). Lets see whether an improved pattern is on the way.

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#1393761 - 14/11/2016 17:22 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
bbowen Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/03/2011
Posts: 115
Yeah it's funny one model says one thing and the others don't then it flips around has been interesting to watch the 3 models (EC,CMC,GFS) all switching. Something has to happen they can't all have a go.



Edited by bbowen (14/11/2016 17:24)

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#1393833 - 15/11/2016 16:10 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: bbowen]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4063
Loc: El Arish
Interesting....

There are no significant tropical lows in the region and none are expected to develop during the next few days.
In the slightly longer term, the northern Coral Sea is expected to become more active on the weekend, when a tropical low may develop in the northeastern Coral Sea. At this stage there is no threat to the Queensland coast.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Wednesday:Very low
Thursday:Very low
Friday:Very low

http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/cyclone.shtml
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#1393872 - 16/11/2016 12:03 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 2198
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
Copied from another forum section but possibly relevant to future developments

Originally Posted By: Bello Weather
So I'm wondering what impact the massive cold over Asia will have on pushing the monsoon down south earlier than usual? Looks like the cold over there will get another big boost next week...and that is in an area that memory tells me is connected with the progress of the monsoon down south:


My guess is it means an earlier monsoon...


I would like to see someone advise us on this question - anyone here with some talent on monsoon drivers in Asian area of influence?
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Wandjina - Cloud and rain spirits from Australian Aboriginal mythology

Daisey Bates - The passing of the aborigines.

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#1393873 - 16/11/2016 12:38 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Bello Weather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/07/2012
Posts: 358
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Haha, thanks for forwarding, that was me posting in the wrong section I think...

Here's the image that went with it:


...and here is another...this is the October anoms which have only grown since then:

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#1393878 - 16/11/2016 13:03 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2680
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
All the cold means the Serbian High is quite strong also, which I am lead to believe also helps push things south?

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#1393881 - 16/11/2016 14:12 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 461
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Gfs is showing something on 30/11 I know a long way out but I have seen systems predicted that far out come true. Yasi being one of them. Just the track changed alot so let's see what happens.
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Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Oct 2017]: 304.4mm (Ave 74.9mm)
Sept 2017: 12.9mm (avg 35.6mm)
YTD 2017 1484.2mm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1393890 - 16/11/2016 18:18 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: CoastalStorm22]
wet sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/10/2015
Posts: 613
Loc: NENSW-Wet Subtropics
Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
All the cold means the Serbian High is quite strong also, which I am lead to believe also helps push things south?


Yea, I remember Retired Weather Man talking about that the 1893 Brisbane floods being aided by the strong siberian high.

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#1393893 - 16/11/2016 18:59 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24809
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
yes the Serbian helps to drive the cross equatorial flow into our part of the world. the bigger the high, the better the push. aided with an MJO the recipe is delicious!
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Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
September 2017 total - 1.4mm (11mm)
October 2017 total - 95.0mm (26mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 801.4mm (1122mm)

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#1393911 - 17/11/2016 00:30 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 461
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
And what does that mean for us exactly?
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Oct 2017]: 304.4mm (Ave 74.9mm)
Sept 2017: 12.9mm (avg 35.6mm)
YTD 2017 1484.2mm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1393916 - 17/11/2016 07:43 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23545
Loc: Townsville
Everywhere in Northern Australia gets rain but Townsville
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2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1393930 - 17/11/2016 13:02 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Dawgggg]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 2198
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
Everywhere in Northern Australia gets rain but Townsville
Yes, very consistent at staying dryish
_________________________
Wandjina - Cloud and rain spirits from Australian Aboriginal mythology

Daisey Bates - The passing of the aborigines.

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#1393942 - 17/11/2016 15:50 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 461
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
So basically Townsville was built in the wrong place for rainfall. Bet it rained more in that area before urbanisation.
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Oct 2017]: 304.4mm (Ave 74.9mm)
Sept 2017: 12.9mm (avg 35.6mm)
YTD 2017 1484.2mm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1393962 - 17/11/2016 21:38 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
bradcq Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 335
Loc: koongal rockhampton qld
Every town is built on a river by early settlers for the ease of fresh water

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#1393967 - 18/11/2016 02:05 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Dawgggg]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
Everywhere in Northern Australia gets rain but Townsville

Move to Broome and you will see that Townsville is lush with a high annual rainfall.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1393981 - 18/11/2016 09:20 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Dawgggg]
Kowree Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2012
Posts: 71
Loc: Utchee Creek via Innisfail.
Dawgggg, went past Townsville Sunday & Wednesday and missed a huge storm here of course - lightning, thunder, 19mm rain and violent winds - neighbours house has a tarp over roof - a tree smashed onto it, but thems the breaks - but heck, Townsville looked like it should be situated on the Mitchell Highway! Fires burning in the hills added to the general untropical feel as well. You sure are a dry place.

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#1393998 - 18/11/2016 14:38 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4341
Loc: Brisbane
I shared a house with some indigenous Australian's for a number of years, one of whom was originally from Townsville.

He told me that Townsville actually has a curse that rainfall would miss it or something along those lines. Not sure he was making fun of me or was just out of town on the "night of Noah".
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1394025 - 18/11/2016 20:48 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 475
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Interesting to see cmc chart still going for cyclone.

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#1394038 - 19/11/2016 09:33 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Popeye]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23545
Loc: Townsville
Originally Posted By: Popeye
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
Everywhere in Northern Australia gets rain but Townsville

Move to Broome and you will see that Townsville is lush with a high annual rainfall.


Define Lush LOL
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2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1394042 - 19/11/2016 10:11 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2097
Loc: Chillagoe
From memory Broome is semi-arid spinifex country right to the sand on the beach.
Townsville has trees,grows vegetation easily.
I passed thru Broome twice in early 90s, my memory could be wrong.
_________________________
Chillagoe
January: 393.0mm | February: 221.0mm | March: 153.5mm | April: 11.5mm | May: 8.5mm | June: 2.0mm | July: 2.0mm | August: 1.0mm | September: nil | October: 47mm
-------
YTD: 968.0mm
2016: 668.5mm
2015: 599.0mm

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