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#1407919 - 16/02/2017 12:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6555
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Latest JAMSTEC going for a moderate - strong Nino now like the rest. This is absolutely ridiculous, what the hell is going on.

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#1407925 - 16/02/2017 13:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
paulcirrus Offline
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Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1446
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
This nino will be far worse than last year as we don't have help from the Indian ocean this year, so we'll have to accept another dry period coming. Nothing unusual here as we have had long periods of el nino before. So everyone has been warned about it, so shouldn't be any surprises.
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#1407930 - 16/02/2017 14:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
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Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2062
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
The Indian Ocean never helped us in this part of the country last year Paul.

The models are pretty reactive anyway. CFSV2 had us supposed to be well into positive 3.4 territory by now. Then they updated and actually showed a cooling from January to February. Now they have it ramping up to El Nino thresholds quicker then before.

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#1407939 - 16/02/2017 15:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: CoastalStorm22]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2713
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
Whats also interesting is I dont recall any noteworthy WWBs over summer, and the sub surface doesnt look very menacing, so I wonder what it is the models are picking up on that is giving them such a strong response. What do others think?


There has been a significant Kelvin Wave which has warmed the subsurface and created a moderate warm tongue in the far east. While there have been no significant WWBs there has been consistent strong westerly anomalies in the far west, although I would have thought this was too far west to make much difference.

The subsurface has anomalies at 2 degrees near the dateline. Subsurface anomalies are more stable in this region, and this is maybe equivelant to 3-4 degrees in the American coast. While still in the western Pacific these anomalies are much further east than they would normally be towards the end of a La Nina, and represent a Pacific that is primed for an El Nino, which would normally require a significant WWB near this region which so far hasn't been happening.

There has been enough tropical activity out past New Caledonia to trigger such WWBs, but it has been consistently too far south to have any significant impact at the equator. Perhaps as the monsoon heads back towards the NH we will see this westerly activity closer to the equator. But it does seem like the NH has been set against el nino for the last few weeks with the NH high keeping the trade winds at near or above normal levels. From my observation it has seemed to be that the NH and SH have been out of sync for the last few years, being partly the cause of the failed 2014 el nino, and failed 2016 La Nina. Somehow the 15 el nino managed to break some (but not other) records despite SH and NH still showing evidence of being out of sync.

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#1407946 - 16/02/2017 15:37 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Online   content
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Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1553
Loc: Kingaroy
Perhaps we could be looking at a shift similar in scale to the Federation Drought. The weather patterns now would be consistent with a strong El Nino except that it's neutral.

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#1407972 - 16/02/2017 18:09 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
retired weather man Offline
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Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4301
Loc: Wynnum
Agree Chris - Plus similar conditions to the Maunder Minimum at Federation Drought time.
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#1407987 - 16/02/2017 19:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 312
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.

Most of North American ENSO models here, worldwide plume available in the next couple of days.
Most are Borderline El Nio, NASA's model being the most extreme.
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#1407988 - 16/02/2017 19:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 312
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
POAMA forecasts a positive SAM beyond the next couple of days for the next 2 1/2 weeks after that.

GFS forecasts a positive SAM for the next week and then back to Negative by Autumn.
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#1407998 - 16/02/2017 20:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2076
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Holy Moly so in other words its going to be a long and dry winter for SA and Vic followed by a stinker of a summer 2017/2018
after being in a cool and dull weather pattern for this whole summer

Its going to be an interesting development to watch coming into Autumn/Winter


Edited by rstewart84 (16/02/2017 20:33)

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#1408083 - 17/02/2017 10:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
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Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2062
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
There could be something else to consider.

None of the models have a clue what will happen. I think that happened a few years ago, nearly every model was wrong as to what eventually happened.

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#1408084 - 17/02/2017 10:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6555
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Surely they can't be this wrong though?

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#1408114 - 17/02/2017 13:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1674
Weren't most models predicting a La Nina this time last year? I'm pretty sure at one point there was like a 80% of the models were forecasting a La nina and 20% neutral.. My point is yes things don't look too good but we still have the prediction barrier of Autumn to come before we really know what's going on.

2014 was another year that all models were huge on a big El Nino.. I still remember some of the headlines "Monster El Nino on the way" which never happened the models were a fair bit off yess we had an almost weak El Nino/warm neutral but the margin of error was pretty large.. The Monster El Nino came the year after 2015.


Edited by _Johnno_ (17/02/2017 13:21)
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#1408122 - 17/02/2017 13:40 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4301
Loc: Wynnum
With the many models predicting La Nina, this prompted our local water authority to release water from Brisbane's dams in anticipation of the big wet. Looks like we will pay for this again as we did 10+ years ago.
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#1408130 - 17/02/2017 14:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: _Johnno_]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2713
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
Weren't most models predicting a La Nina this time last year? I'm pretty sure at one point there was like a 80% of the models were forecasting a La nina and 20% neutral.. My point is yes things don't look too good but we still have the prediction barrier of Autumn to come before we really know what's going on.

2014 was another year that all models were huge on a big El Nino.. I still remember some of the headlines "Monster El Nino on the way" which never happened the models were a fair bit off yess we had an almost weak El Nino/warm neutral but the margin of error was pretty large.. The Monster El Nino came the year after 2015.


Last year was probably one of the worse recent years for model performance with CFS having a major glitch, switching from el nino to strong La Nina and then moderating later in the year. JMA continually forecasted la nina long after it appeared that the chances of anything significant were over and other models gave up. NASA went for solid La Nina early and switched to neutral mid year. EC was consistently forecasting neutral all year.

None of the models in 2014 predicted a monster el nino, with the strongest model forecasts just barely above 1.5, and the average of all models mostly between 0.5 and 1. Those headlines were based on human speculation following a record size WWB and Kelvin wave.

On the accuracy of past model projections I'd say that a strong el nino, or anything on the cool side of neutral is now unlikely, but we could still get anything in between.

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#1408321 - 18/02/2017 14:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6555
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD

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#1408322 - 18/02/2017 14:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Bello Weather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/07/2012
Posts: 358
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Saw that earlier Mega but was not in a place where I could post. Significant drop forecast, if we see that result in some stronger southern ocean systems move across we could see a significant increase in fire risk across the inland of NSW.
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#1408331 - 18/02/2017 14:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2680
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Models showing it quite warm over Antarctica during the next 2 weeks at least, so the SAM is responding accordingly.


Edited by CoastalStorm22 (18/02/2017 14:58)

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#1408377 - 18/02/2017 16:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2062
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
I have watched the AAO forecast and it is usually atrociously bad.

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#1408449 - 18/02/2017 20:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 312
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Latest POAMA shows AAO taking a dive into negative territory too. Not too strong yet though.
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#1408472 - 18/02/2017 21:51 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2062
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Interesting.

I am finding the forecasts not as dire as some might think. 51% of El Nino at around August?

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-iri_plume

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