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#1400835 - 06/01/2017 14:59 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 285
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
First poster here.

Has anyone noticed the very high SSTs of the NSW Central and South Coast?
See here: https://s28.postimg.org/4h3u9jz4t/IMG_9643.png
This has brought warm temps and lower rainfall anomalies in the area.

Also a cooler SST anomaly is forecast to develop over Winter in the Bight. This could bring a better late snow season to the Aussie Alps
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#1400854 - 06/01/2017 16:44 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: _Johnno_]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6264
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
I mentioned it last week the predicted stronger easterlies shown by the models Mega but no one seemed to take any interest

Happy new year folks.

Has the PDO switched back to cool? That big pool of cooler than normal ssts in the North Pacific has expanded eastwards to the west coast of the US now.


http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif


By the way models going for a sustained period of strong easterlies winds across western and central Pacific Equator from mid next week onwards... Strongest sustained easterlies I have seen yet that the models have predicted since the El Nino ended.



I saw it mate, just had nothing else to add at the time that's all. Extended GFS still has the trades weakening in 2 weeks time even being replaced by weak westerlies. I wonder if this could be the last hurrah for this failed La-Nina phase before a return to warm neutral / possible El-Nino later in the year, seems favored by most of the longer term models unfortunately.

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#1401209 - 09/01/2017 11:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
S .O. Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1516
Loc: Southern Victoria
Ignore the PDO at your Peril .
I've been posting irregularly for near 6-9mths that it was transitioning .
I would say Mike that it's gone past your " short term seasonal spike " that you were expecting .
Once it's locked in then it doesn't matter too much how warm the Eastern Tropical Pacific is , if both the Western Warm pool and the East are above average it still means that there is a Normal Walker circulation .
Only difference is that the Eastern Pacific Equatorial waters that will be pushed back west from the East will be pre charged with heat .
In this occurence the closer we get to southern hem autumn and the SAM continues to favour a Negative irratic condition . Then the Southern Pacific Gyre will still be a chance of maintaining the Walker circulation as a La Niņa maintainer or even strengthen through 2017 and a sustained peak next Summer .

A Strong Negative PDO on average produces far longer cool neutral ENSO conditions . Anyone want to enlighten us on what influence the Atlantic might have on all this later this year ?
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#1401213 - 09/01/2017 12:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2500
Loc: Buderim
Latest PDO index values:

CPC (Dec): 0.45
JISAO (Nov): 1.88


If the PDO is currently -ve, it has only been so for less than 2 months. The short term possible -ve PDO spike that I have expected could have been something close to a year. Or two. The periods following the 82/83 and 86/87/88 el ninos had periods of 2-3 years with mixed -ve and weak +ve PDO before strong +ve values returned to dominance, and the longest period of consecutive -ve values was 10 months.

As far as I can tell the reason that the CPC values have been consistently lower than JISAO is that JISAO exlcudes the area from 20N to the equator and I'm guessing that CPC doesn't, making JISAO a better reflection of what the North Pacific may be doing apart from the current ENSO state, and by this index the PDO has continued a strong warm phase all year.

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#1401220 - 09/01/2017 12:59 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 285
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Strong Prolonged Positive PDO means less precipitation for Australia's Eastern Seaboard. And it helps contribute to a warm neutral state for ENSO and sometimes El Niņo. And the opposite occurs on a Strong Prolonged Negative PDO.

Some interesting reading into the effect of ENSO and PDO on each other.
http://ffden-2.phys.uaf.edu/645fall2003_web.dir/Jason_Amundson/enso.htm

And more reading into the correlation of PDO and ENSO.
http://la.climatologie.free.fr/enso/enso-pdo3-english.htm




Edited by Snowy Hibbo (09/01/2017 13:04)
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#1401236 - 09/01/2017 15:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1493
Loc: Kingaroy
I think time will tell whether the PDO has shifted back into a warm phase. The warm PDO readings could be as a result of local weather patterns rather than a long term shift.

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#1401252 - 09/01/2017 16:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6264
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I would love to know the recent climate in New Zealand actually - surely they must be having their windiest, coldest, most miserable summer in recent history? All I ever see are strong westerly winds and non stop cold fronts passing across that area as high pressure mysteriously avoids them all summer.

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#1401253 - 09/01/2017 16:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Chris Stumer]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 285
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Usually PDO periods occur over 20-30 years ,are we up to that yet?
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#1401267 - 09/01/2017 18:28 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 439
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
I don't think anyone can make a prediction for this year.
The poles have both been in uncharted territory.
It's not getting easier.

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#1401270 - 09/01/2017 19:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1073
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
Originally Posted By: Mega
I would love to know the recent climate in New Zealand actually - surely they must be having their windiest, coldest, most miserable summer in recent history? All I ever see are strong westerly winds and non stop cold fronts passing across that area as high pressure mysteriously avoids them all summer.


Indeed, multiple never ending cold fronts with just intermittent 'warm' days in between of low 20's here in Canterbury with those in the North Island complaining even moreso with lack of sunny days...

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#1401272 - 09/01/2017 19:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6264
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Thanks pete, I'm not surprised. So much talk about ENSO when the SAM is obviously playing a big part too.

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#1401306 - 10/01/2017 06:28 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1073
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
I tend to agree Mega not that I'm complaining, the lack of heat is one of the reasons I moved to NZ from Melbourne!! We actually had frost here last week and also a good dusting on the mountains down to about 1300m asl. Looks to be changing in the next few weeks though, the hot sunny NW days will be returning soon me thinks...

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#1401418 - 10/01/2017 18:56 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6391
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo
Strong Prolonged Positive PDO means less precipitation for Australia's Eastern Seaboard. And it helps contribute to a warm neutral state for ENSO and sometimes El Niņo. And the opposite occurs on a Strong Prolonged Negative PDO.

Some interesting reading into the effect of ENSO and PDO on each other.
http://ffden-2.phys.uaf.edu/645fall2003_web.dir/Jason_Amundson/enso.htm

And more reading into the correlation of PDO and ENSO.
http://la.climatologie.free.fr/enso/enso-pdo3-english.htm




Thanks Snowy!

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#1401460 - 11/01/2017 06:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6264
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Has anyone seen this morning's 2 week charts? They show high pressure cells moving up the ocean as far north as the Central Queensland latitudes, that is an August / September pattern right there. It's all very strange for January, but what happens if the SAM stays this way for god knows how long? If the SAM had been close to neutral or positive for all those years then what's to stop it from staying negative for the longer term? This seems like very uncharted territory here no?

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#1401476 - 11/01/2017 09:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1493
Loc: Kingaroy
It could mean a bitterly cold, wet and windy winter could be on the way. Why is the SAM so negative for this time of year?


Edited by Chris Stumer (11/01/2017 09:31)

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#1401481 - 11/01/2017 09:38 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4220
Loc: Wynnum
IN following eastern Queensland rainfall patterns over many decades, unfortunately the declining solar influence has a couple of years of falling to go which tends to mirror predominately El Nino activity over Eastern Queensland as it did in the early part of this century and before that the early to mid 90's, mid 80's, not so much the 70's, and prior to that late 50's into early 60's.

When the cycle turns the corner upwards again towards its peak the reverse seems to occur with a predominance of La Nina events affecting Eastern Queensland, namely 2010-12/early 13, 97-00,88-91, again the mid 70's were the anomaly,67/70,53/56. And of the course the big one - 1889/1894.

Purely coincidence and lacking in scientific fact - I know, but the match ups seems to be there over long periods of recorded time.

And mixed in with PDO influences.


Edited by retired weather man (11/01/2017 09:42)
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#1401504 - 11/01/2017 11:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2500
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Mega
Has anyone seen this morning's 2 week charts? They show high pressure cells moving up the ocean as far north as the Central Queensland latitudes, that is an August / September pattern right there. It's all very strange for January, but what happens if the SAM stays this way for god knows how long? If the SAM had been close to neutral or positive for all those years then what's to stop it from staying negative for the longer term? This seems like very uncharted territory here no?


At the same time the monsoon over NW Australia has been further south with nothing much happening cyclone wise and lots of activity over land. It looks a bit more like a NH pattern where land-sea differences are more important than north-south differences.

Judging by Antarctic sea ice stats there has been a significant weakening of the polar vortex over a relatively short period of time - months to year or so. Will it change back just as quickly, or continue?

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#1401558 - 11/01/2017 18:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6192
Loc: Central Qld.
Originally Posted By: Mega
Has anyone seen this morning's 2 week charts? They show high pressure cells moving up the ocean as far north as the Central Queensland latitudes, that is an August / September pattern right there. It's all very strange for January, but what happens if the SAM stays this way for god knows how long? If the SAM had been close to neutral or positive for all those years then what's to stop it from staying negative for the longer term? This seems like very uncharted territory here no?


Does this mean more hot dry weather for us then?
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#1401569 - 11/01/2017 19:03 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Vinnie]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6264
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Vinnie
Originally Posted By: Mega
Has anyone seen this morning's 2 week charts? They show high pressure cells moving up the ocean as far north as the Central Queensland latitudes, that is an August / September pattern right there. It's all very strange for January, but what happens if the SAM stays this way for god knows how long? If the SAM had been close to neutral or positive for all those years then what's to stop it from staying negative for the longer term? This seems like very uncharted territory here no?


Does this mean more hot dry weather for us then?


Well I can't see anything on the horizon except for the far SE of QLD. Starting to look pretty bad on the BoM's drought maps now too:



Have to say though that the climate models along with the Bureau were spot on when they predicted a hot and dry summer for much of Queensland this year. Where we go from here is anyone's guess. I am just worried that the SAM is stuck and won't come back any time soon.

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#1401589 - 11/01/2017 21:09 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1493
Loc: Kingaroy
It's almost like an El Nino pattern that we're in at the moment.

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