Well, time to call this event and open a dedicated thread, rather than clutter the day-to-day discussion. Most models agree on an upper feature located over inland NSW and heading further north, gradually inducing onshore activity in the form of surface troughing or an ECL (position uncertain and subject to change). It appears that precipitation in some form should affect most of the region in coming days, with Monday afternoon the start of the main activity, and by mid next week onshore activity potentially increasing. Hopefully I haven't jinxed this event by opening a new thread, but at least it will be fun with good discussion prior to and during any event.

Mod edit:

The heaviest falls are being shifted around, as to be expected:

This still looks like a pretty neat event to me. That massive ridge over the southern Tasman just anchors the broad upper low or trough in place over QLD for a good 5+ days or so. All models are in pretty good agreement with that, but of course the models will keep us guessing with the finer details between now & then.

All in all this is definitely the type of setup that does usually bring heavy rain and flash flooding somewhere along the coast.

This is the latest EC run which shows the trajectory of the upper low (blue shading) and the big ridge in the Tasman Sea (orange / red shading) which anchors it over QLD, you can see by the last day that the trough has almost washed out over the interior:



Of course this will continue to chop and change in the coming days.

Some NW'ly steerings winds associated with that looks to be about WNW'ly to begin with. I know some don't like that direction but in this case I'm not sure yet if its going to be widespread. The upper system starts to retrogress and weaken, that could allow some coastal troughing to move onshore.

Latest EC is progging up to 300mm along the Sunshine Coast. This needs to be taken seriously this close out. Offshore hybrid low with an associated black NE. Things could get nasty if this comes off. Still, it's only one run. It will be interesting to see the subsequent runs.

Latest WATL looking interesting for Wednesday, and that's just the start of it.

Looks like NE NSW floods on the latest EC run.

Finding it increasingly concerning that the totals are being ramped up rather than downgraded.

As i said a few days ago sunday is no good for storms now monday is backing off.i hope not but may be another fizzer. I know i got slammed for same comment 2 weeks ago
6mm in 12 weeks is frustrating

It's the potential for a second event straight after that's got me thinking...
Sorry have no wifi but gfs... http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec7.html

goes either of two ways. This miserable season continues with these systems failing, or we snap back into reality with some real rainfall , which albeit from just two quick systems may bring rainfall stats back near avg, which would seem preposterous, it does happen.

There is some heavy showers maybe a grumble in them developing north of Brisbane moving south now.

Raining here right now , has been for ten mins , just lightly , but smells very nice.

It's interesting watching that area of precip along the convergence zone grow out of seemingly nothing.
This was EC's forecast for between 10pm and 1am vs current radar:

Absolutely bang on. Treasure it ken , will be no muppets going off tonight!

Wow nice

Keep these Obs vs forecast snapshots coming.

GFS and Access also had overnight precipitation for overnight between Brisbane and Sunshine Coast.

Anyways, If the models persist with heavy rainfall for this week in tonights run. You can almost lock it in. showers/rain could start affecting our region by Tuesday. The storm event for tomorrow looks mostly inland areas.

19mm in Deception Bay last night. Beautiful.

3mm from those unexpected heavy showers last night.
Looking forward to some real rain. WATL looks good this morning.