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#1411694 - 11/03/2017 12:02 SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017
Taylsy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2007
Posts: 1221
Loc: Pacific Pines, Gold Coast
Well, time to call this event and open a dedicated thread, rather than clutter the day-to-day discussion. Most models agree on an upper feature located over inland NSW and heading further north, gradually inducing onshore activity in the form of surface troughing or an ECL (position uncertain and subject to change). It appears that precipitation in some form should affect most of the region in coming days, with Monday afternoon the start of the main activity, and by mid next week onshore activity potentially increasing. Hopefully I haven't jinxed this event by opening a new thread, but at least it will be fun with good discussion prior to and during any event.

Mod edit:
Quote:
Pre-event - Pages 1 to 5
13th - Pages 5 to 9
14th - Pages 9 to 16
15th - Pages 16 to 21
16th - Pages 21 to 24
17th - Pages 24 to 28
18th - Pages 28 to 32
19th - Pages 33 to 35
20th - Pages 35 to 37
21st - Pages 37 to 38
22nd - Pages 38 to 40
23rd & 24th - Page 40 and onwards

(If using default setting of 20 posts per page)


Edited by Seabreeze (24/03/2017 21:46)
Edit Reason: page count
_________________________
Between the bush and the beach.
2017 YTD: 172 mm; 2016: 812 mm; 2015: 1,932 mm; 2014: 943 mm; 2013: 1,501 mm; 2012 1,682 mm; 2011 1,032 mm; 2010 2,151 mm; 2009 1,447 mm.

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#1411696 - 11/03/2017 12:29 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
Stormwithin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/12/2016
Posts: 99
The heaviest falls are being shifted around, as to be expected:

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#1411716 - 11/03/2017 17:48 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6171
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
This still looks like a pretty neat event to me. That massive ridge over the southern Tasman just anchors the broad upper low or trough in place over QLD for a good 5+ days or so. All models are in pretty good agreement with that, but of course the models will keep us guessing with the finer details between now & then.

All in all this is definitely the type of setup that does usually bring heavy rain and flash flooding somewhere along the coast.

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#1411718 - 11/03/2017 18:00 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6171
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
This is the latest EC run which shows the trajectory of the upper low (blue shading) and the big ridge in the Tasman Sea (orange / red shading) which anchors it over QLD, you can see by the last day that the trough has almost washed out over the interior:



Of course this will continue to chop and change in the coming days.

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#1411725 - 11/03/2017 18:59 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
Steve O Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 2859
Loc: Yatala, Gold Coast QLD
Some NW'ly steerings winds associated with that looks to be about WNW'ly to begin with. I know some don't like that direction but in this case I'm not sure yet if its going to be widespread. The upper system starts to retrogress and weaken, that could allow some coastal troughing to move onshore.


Edited by Steve O (11/03/2017 19:01)

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#1411728 - 11/03/2017 19:19 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5144
Loc: Diamond Valley
Latest EC is progging up to 300mm along the Sunshine Coast. This needs to be taken seriously this close out. Offshore hybrid low with an associated black NE. Things could get nasty if this comes off. Still, it's only one run. It will be interesting to see the subsequent runs.
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The original donut hole

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#1411731 - 11/03/2017 19:46 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5144
Loc: Diamond Valley
Latest WATL looking interesting for Wednesday, and that's just the start of it.

_________________________
The original donut hole

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#1411737 - 11/03/2017 20:39 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
Floodhunta Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/11/2002
Posts: 605
Loc: Bowral asl 690m
Looks like NE NSW floods on the latest EC run.

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#1411742 - 11/03/2017 21:20 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
Stormwithin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/12/2016
Posts: 99
Finding it increasingly concerning that the totals are being ramped up rather than downgraded.

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#1411764 - 11/03/2017 22:51 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
tsunami Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 938
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
As i said a few days ago sunday is no good for storms now monday is backing off.i hope not but may be another fizzer. I know i got slammed for same comment 2 weeks ago
6mm in 12 weeks is frustrating
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1411765 - 11/03/2017 23:29 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
Blowin' Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 765
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
It's the potential for a second event straight after that's got me thinking...
Sorry have no wifi but gfs... http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec7.html

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#1411766 - 11/03/2017 23:37 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
BIG T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 831
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
goes either of two ways. This miserable season continues with these systems failing, or we snap back into reality with some real rainfall , which albeit from just two quick systems may bring rainfall stats back near avg, which would seem preposterous, it does happen.

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#1411768 - 11/03/2017 23:41 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1322
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
There is some heavy showers maybe a grumble in them developing north of Brisbane moving south now.

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#1411769 - 11/03/2017 23:45 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
BIG T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 831
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Raining here right now , has been for ten mins , just lightly , but smells very nice.

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#1411773 - 12/03/2017 00:07 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4162
It's interesting watching that area of precip along the convergence zone grow out of seemingly nothing.
This was EC's forecast for between 10pm and 1am vs current radar:





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#1411774 - 12/03/2017 00:29 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
BIG T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 831
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Absolutely bang on. Treasure it ken , will be no muppets going off tonight!

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#1411775 - 12/03/2017 00:30 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 484
Loc: Nundah Qld
Wow nice

Keep these Obs vs forecast snapshots coming.
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Bring on the STORMS

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#1411780 - 12/03/2017 06:40 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 360
Loc: Elimbah 4516
GFS and Access also had overnight precipitation for overnight between Brisbane and Sunshine Coast.

Anyways, If the models persist with heavy rainfall for this week in tonights run. You can almost lock it in. showers/rain could start affecting our region by Tuesday. The storm event for tomorrow looks mostly inland areas.
_________________________
Records are MEANT to be broken.

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#1411781 - 12/03/2017 06:57 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
Robie Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 4
Loc: Deception Bay
19mm in Deception Bay last night. Beautiful.

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#1411784 - 12/03/2017 08:25 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2568
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
3mm from those unexpected heavy showers last night.
Looking forward to some real rain. WATL looks good this morning.

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