#1411694 - 11/03/2017 12:02
SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 31/12/2007
Posts: 1231
Loc: Pacific Pines, Gold Coast
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Well, time to call this event and open a dedicated thread, rather than clutter the day-to-day discussion. Most models agree on an upper feature located over inland NSW and heading further north, gradually inducing onshore activity in the form of surface troughing or an ECL (position uncertain and subject to change). It appears that precipitation in some form should affect most of the region in coming days, with Monday afternoon the start of the main activity, and by mid next week onshore activity potentially increasing. Hopefully I haven't jinxed this event by opening a new thread, but at least it will be fun with good discussion prior to and during any event. Mod edit:Pre-event - Pages 1 to 5 13th - Pages 5 to 9 14th - Pages 9 to 16 15th - Pages 16 to 21 16th - Pages 21 to 24 17th - Pages 24 to 28 18th - Pages 28 to 32 19th - Pages 33 to 35 20th - Pages 35 to 37 21st - Pages 37 to 38 22nd - Pages 38 to 40 23rd & 24th - Page 40 and onwards
(If using default setting of 20 posts per page)
Edited by Seabreeze (24/03/2017 21:46) Edit Reason: page count
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Between the bush and the beach. 2017 YTD: 885 mm; 2016: 812 mm; 2015: 1,932 mm; 2014: 943 mm; 2013: 1,501 mm; 2012 1,682 mm; 2011 1,032 mm; 2010 2,151 mm; 2009 1,447 mm.
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#1411725 - 11/03/2017 18:59
Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017
[Re: Taylsy]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3116
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
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Some NW'ly steerings winds associated with that looks to be about WNW'ly to begin with. I know some don't like that direction but in this case I'm not sure yet if its going to be widespread. The upper system starts to retrogress and weaken, that could allow some coastal troughing to move onshore.
Edited by Steve O (11/03/2017 19:01)
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#1411728 - 11/03/2017 19:19
Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017
[Re: Taylsy]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5225
Loc: Diamond Valley
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Latest EC is progging up to 300mm along the Sunshine Coast. This needs to be taken seriously this close out. Offshore hybrid low with an associated black NE. Things could get nasty if this comes off. Still, it's only one run. It will be interesting to see the subsequent runs.
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The original donut hole
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#1411737 - 11/03/2017 20:39
Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017
[Re: Taylsy]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 20/11/2002
Posts: 618
Loc: Bowral asl 690m
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Looks like NE NSW floods on the latest EC run.
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#1411742 - 11/03/2017 21:20
Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017
[Re: Taylsy]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 02/12/2016
Posts: 149
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Finding it increasingly concerning that the totals are being ramped up rather than downgraded.
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#1411764 - 11/03/2017 22:51
Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017
[Re: Taylsy]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1134
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
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As i said a few days ago sunday is no good for storms now monday is backing off.i hope not but may be another fizzer. I know i got slammed for same comment 2 weeks ago 6mm in 12 weeks is frustrating
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Wynnum SE Brisbane
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#1411765 - 11/03/2017 23:29
Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017
[Re: Taylsy]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 896
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
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It's the potential for a second event straight after that's got me thinking... Sorry have no wifi but gfs... http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec7.html
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#1411766 - 11/03/2017 23:37
Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017
[Re: Taylsy]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1070
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
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goes either of two ways. This miserable season continues with these systems failing, or we snap back into reality with some real rainfall , which albeit from just two quick systems may bring rainfall stats back near avg, which would seem preposterous, it does happen.
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#1411768 - 11/03/2017 23:41
Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017
[Re: Taylsy]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1658
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
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There is some heavy showers maybe a grumble in them developing north of Brisbane moving south now.
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https://www.facebook.com/supercell1Click here for Ellalong live weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.
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#1411769 - 11/03/2017 23:45
Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017
[Re: Taylsy]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1070
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
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Raining here right now , has been for ten mins , just lightly , but smells very nice.
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#1411774 - 12/03/2017 00:29
Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017
[Re: Taylsy]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1070
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
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Absolutely bang on. Treasure it ken , will be no muppets going off tonight!
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#1411775 - 12/03/2017 00:30
Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017
[Re: Taylsy]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 552
Loc: Chadstone Vic
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Wow nice
Keep these Obs vs forecast snapshots coming.
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Bring on the STORMS
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#1411780 - 12/03/2017 06:40
Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017
[Re: Taylsy]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 454
Loc: Elimbah 4516
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GFS and Access also had overnight precipitation for overnight between Brisbane and Sunshine Coast.
Anyways, If the models persist with heavy rainfall for this week in tonights run. You can almost lock it in. showers/rain could start affecting our region by Tuesday. The storm event for tomorrow looks mostly inland areas.
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Records are MEANT to be broken.
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#1411781 - 12/03/2017 06:57
Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017
[Re: Taylsy]
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Cloud Gazer
Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 4
Loc: Deception Bay
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19mm in Deception Bay last night. Beautiful.
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#1411784 - 12/03/2017 08:25
Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017
[Re: Taylsy]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3288
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
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3mm from those unexpected heavy showers last night. Looking forward to some real rain. WATL looks good this morning.
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