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#1411786 - 12/03/2017 09:33 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4220
Loc: Wynnum
As of now and commencing tonight - OCF is forecasting 213mm for Brisbane Airport over the next 8 days.
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Wyn Nth 2017-Jan107.6(158),Feb24.4(149),Mar410.2(123),Apr8.8(98),May32.2(101),Jun84.2(75),YTD667.4(705.4),

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#1411790 - 12/03/2017 09:52 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 148
Loc: Golden Beach
Nice RTM. What degree of confidence do people have in achieving the forecast. Would it be possible to have one of those upgrade/downgrade maps. If this goes down slippery slope my weather days are over!!!

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#1411791 - 12/03/2017 09:53 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
tsunami Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 985
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Yippee. Thaks rwm
Reminds me of townsville. Dead grass dying plants
Frinds said they have never seen it so dry here
If this event is a fizzer i will end up bald
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Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1411793 - 12/03/2017 09:55 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
tsunami Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 985
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Bom appear to be backing off on rainfall
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Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1411794 - 12/03/2017 09:57 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
tsunami Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 985
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Just looked at stormcast. Updated forcast over 250mm for brisbane
Fffff we will see
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Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1411796 - 12/03/2017 10:08 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2672
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
At this stage I give it 20% chance all this might happen.

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#1411799 - 12/03/2017 10:21 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 148
Loc: Golden Beach
Elf is that a hunch based on an suspect recent forecast outcomes or your analysis of data. Cheers

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#1411800 - 12/03/2017 10:29 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2672
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Its unwise to give much support this far out with most of the forecast rain falling later in the week for us. My forecast outcome is for our area near Esk, not the coast, given the recent weather history, it seems to have an alliance with Murphys Law. Maybe the weather is turning, I hope so!
Looking forward to a storm or two out here over the next couple days.

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#1411804 - 12/03/2017 11:03 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 148
Loc: Golden Beach
OK. Watyl looks good for us on the coast - purple rain!

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#1411811 - 12/03/2017 11:28 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: tsunami]
Stormwithin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/12/2016
Posts: 114
Gfs, Access and EC are still holding similar outcomes, several days in row now. Calling a fizzer before an event has started...it annoys me to no end.

Rainfall totals have NOT been downgraded:

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#1411812 - 12/03/2017 11:34 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
Timbuck Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/10/2013
Posts: 171
Loc: Highland park , Gold Coast
Really looking forward to this event. It's very nice to see things starting to line up nicely on a lot of the models , also as previously mentioned a few key factors that are developing in our favour to produce the goods we all want/need. This could be the break we all need smile smile let's hope it falls a little bit inland as well for those who missed out last time ( or this summer).

One thing I've witnessed on here over the last numbers of year's is it's much easier to "forecast" the the people who are negative or wright things off about our weather before it has commenced or even begun. And I'm 100% for opinions that's what I love and learn from it brilliant. But you can also read the negativity in there lives through posts. , but I'm a kind of cup half full kind of a guy I guess.
We are all different and look at and deal with things much differently , and get effected but them differently.

I'm defiantly interested in why people my or may not think it will rain or not with a certain event. ( not just this one). Not just opinion based or hunch etc as stated before. Help me learn more about the why and why not and the factors involved.
Always good to go back after an even and look at why it did or did not rain.

Cheers. Bring on some rain please

Tim

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#1411813 - 12/03/2017 11:47 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Stormwithin]
Lewis Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2011
Posts: 302
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Stormwithin
Gfs, Access and EC are still holding similar outcomes, several days in row now. Calling a fizzer before an event has started...it annoys me to no end.

Rainfall totals have NOT been downgraded:


People are calling this event a bust because of the BOM's forecast. Using the forecast for Brisbane for today until Saturday, if the median (50% chance) forecast comes off on all days, we'll only get 18mm, most of that falling on Friday - 5 days away, plenty of time for the models to downgrade the event, the low to blast westerlies through itself or turn into an ECL and move all the rain south.

I'm very sceptical of this event.

Quite frankly I don't care if the event gets ramped up, the soil is so dry here 100-200mm would be inconsequential for most of SEQ because the soil would soak up all the rain. My thinking is it'll get downgraded, like every other event this summer.
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Donut hole V2.0.

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#1411814 - 12/03/2017 11:49 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
tsunami Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 985
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Good post tim
Sorry to upset you storm within. Last event i called a fizzer as the radar was showing rain staying off the coast when bom saying it was meant to come ashore.
This event is starting to get put back a day or two
In a recent post i said that when a weather event gets pushed back it seems it looses its power..strength. and when they arrive sooner thay pack more punch. I spent years in townsville where rain was prdicted and never happened. Same down here and i feel it is the current weather pattern eg not elnino or lanina. The weather pattern does not know what to do so untill things go one way or the other its going to be very hit and miss when the pattern changes i have no idea. It could be this event. It may not be till next summer
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Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1411815 - 12/03/2017 11:50 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
tsunami Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 985
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Well said lewis
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Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1411817 - 12/03/2017 11:54 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: tsunami]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4354
Originally Posted By: tsunami
Last event i called a fizzer as the radar was showing rain staying off the coast when bom saying it was meant to come ashore

It pays to be really careful when trying to predict what'll happen beyond a few hours just based on current radar. Things can sometimes change at the drop of a hat and current radar isn't always a good indicator of what will happen beyond a few hours.

Last night was a good example - http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...pos#Post1411773

If you went purely by radar, you'd swear nothing would happen and yet, that area of precip suddenly appeared out of nowhere just as the models predicted.

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#1411818 - 12/03/2017 11:54 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
tsunami Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 985
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Feels a bit like a storm day today. That would be egg on my face which i would happily lick off
Yes i do admit ken i have seen a clear radar then a storm develop out of know where
I recall last november. Got home from work at 12am clear radar and within half hour lightning started to flash and next it was pooring


Edited by tsunami (12/03/2017 11:57)
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Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1411821 - 12/03/2017 12:22 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Lewis]
Stormwithin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/12/2016
Posts: 114
So, you're saying the event is a 'bust' based on the fact that you added the lowest possible rainfall amounts? Without taking into account that we actually could get 77mm+ according to BoM's forecast?

The problem here is that you and others, are too reliant on BoM's forecast whose hands are tied by red tape. Why don't you go and look at the all of the free publicly available information, have a go at guessing what you think the outcome might be and come back here and discuss it.

It's obvious sooo many people have left the forum for two reasons, I believe. The first one being the media lurking. The second being people really bringing down the discussion with negativity based on not much knowledge. Not knowing much and having an opinion has always been supported in here, so long as you are asking questions and learning. Instead, we're seeing people embarrassing themselves by trying to dismiss the knowledge of others, who have studied, who have worked in the field and quite frankly, I'm over it and seriously considering leaving.

If anyone would like to discuss models and variations rationally, etc. with me I welcome it 😃

Oh, 400mm+ is not something the soil will soak up btw.

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#1411823 - 12/03/2017 12:38 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Timbuck]
buster Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/09/2006
Posts: 431
Loc: Kalbar (near Boonah) SEQ
Originally Posted By: Timbuck

One thing I've witnessed on here over the last numbers of years is it's much easier to "forecast" the people who are negative or write things off about our weather before it has commenced or even begun.


Oh Timbuck you are so right. Much, much easier than the work the poor buggers at the BOM are trying to pull off. This could be the most astute observation I've seen on this forum for ages. Following your lead I might just start a separate thread and do a survey of forum users to see whether we should be classifying such forum users on a "5% chance of being positive/95% chance of being negative" basis or whether we should return to the old tried and true terminology and just call them "moaners". As for this event, I like it. Significant upper low to our South and then our West, pretty good correlation between models and some chance of a surface low/trough drifting down from the North later on. After the hit and miss totals of the previous convective event, I like the idea of more general showers/rain areas, especially for the Hervey bay area and parts of the Burnett which have had a truly dreadful time of it this Summer. A few areas closer to Brisbane are also pretty poorly. I hope it comes off.

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#1411824 - 12/03/2017 12:41 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4354
Haha Timbuck and buster, it's funny because it's true.

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#1411828 - 12/03/2017 12:57 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
Taylsy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2007
Posts: 1229
Loc: Pacific Pines, Gold Coast
What I find particularly amusing is when a rainfall event comes off (particularly after multi-model agreement), the naysayers all of a sudden are deafening in their silence.

Ken, I think it might be time (if you are so inclined) to whip out one of your fabulous charts to perhaps illustrate the potential for upgrade or downgrade at this point. Most models seem to either be upgrading (eg Access suite, GFS) or staying true (EC) with rainfall accumulations, particularly nearer the coast.

I seldom post in these forums these days unless there is something worth discussing - I think this coming event is the real deal for anyone close to the coast in the Wide Bay, SEQ or Nth NSW areas.
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Between the bush and the beach.
2017 YTD: 885 mm; 2016: 812 mm; 2015: 1,932 mm; 2014: 943 mm; 2013: 1,501 mm; 2012 1,682 mm; 2011 1,032 mm; 2010 2,151 mm; 2009 1,447 mm.

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