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#1413804 - 21/03/2017 08:13 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
Squeako_88 Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 360
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Access and especially EC forecasting some good falls for tomorrow and especially for Thursday for SE QLD. Looks like the trough off the central coast may drift south or develop enough to the south to affect us.


Edited by Squeako_88 (21/03/2017 08:15)
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#1413809 - 21/03/2017 08:33 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4161
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 48.2mm. Official Wynnum site only 800 metres away got 64mm.
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Wyn Nth 2017-Jan107.6(158),Feb24.4(149),Mar149.4(123),YTD281.4(430.2),

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#1413814 - 21/03/2017 09:16 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 525
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Whats the chances of hearing any thunder today sky looks uninteresting at present but its certainly heating up which has got to be a good thing

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#1413829 - 21/03/2017 10:03 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1172
Loc: Australia
According to GFS a fairly large upper high looks like planting itself in western QLD from about Friday,i wouldn't be anticipating much more rainfall from that point onwards

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#1413868 - 21/03/2017 13:30 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4159
There's also signs of some enhanced rainfall around the 1st or 2nd week of next month over parts of northern and eastern Australia in some of the ensembles but almost a 50/50 proposition as far as our area goes.

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#1413876 - 21/03/2017 14:15 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Lewis Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2011
Posts: 292
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
100mm here for the 24hrs to 9am today.

Very impressive, but long overdue. Bumps us up to 126mm for the whole event.


Edited by Lewis (21/03/2017 14:15)
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#1413899 - 21/03/2017 15:45 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4161
Loc: Wynnum
OCF getting excited again next 2 days locally.
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Wyn Nth 2017-Jan107.6(158),Feb24.4(149),Mar149.4(123),YTD281.4(430.2),

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#1413961 - 21/03/2017 17:42 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 134
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Yep, BOM have revised there totals up for the next two days, anything to do with that very upper low / trough which looks like it's effecting CQ coast today and sliding south on Him WV loop.


Edited by DDstorm (21/03/2017 17:44)
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#1413980 - 21/03/2017 18:30 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
rainiac Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/10/2015
Posts: 509
Loc: NENSW-Wet Subtropics
31.9mm in the gauge this morning taking the total for part II of the event to 104mm, and the total since last tuesday to 322mm. I'm a happy (and lucky) camper. The usual wet areas recieved 400+. Springbrook road topped the event with 528mm.

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#1413990 - 21/03/2017 18:49 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
BIG T Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 831
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
26mm last 24hrs here , total of 50 mm for the week.

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#1413999 - 21/03/2017 19:19 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6170
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I daresay those OCF totals were a direct result of this morning's EC run which now has most of the rain gone for SEQ on the current run. One of the biggest issues I have with WATL and OCF is that even though they apparently have more bias towards some models than others, they clearly still get put out of whack by an individual model forecasting over the top totals when the others show nothing of the sort. I'll just stick to individual model runs I think.

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#1414001 - 21/03/2017 19:24 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4159
Consensus forecasts such as OCF and WATL have actually been shown to outperform (on average) any individual model.

OCF only deliberately biases temps towards the better performing models - the rainfall amounts are just a simple average of all the component models. Of course if any of the component models are going for big falls, this will naturally bump up the model average rainfall in OCF.

But one thing to be careful about OCF is that it can sometimes show unrealistically high rainfall amounts for coastal locations if there's big falls just near and off the coast due to the smearing effect of ome of the models over land.

Also, some of the models used for OCF use slightly older runs than WATL (certain model runs don't make it into OCF before the cutoff times depending on the model).


Edited by Ken Kato (21/03/2017 19:27)
Edit Reason: added stuff

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#1414004 - 21/03/2017 19:29 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6170
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Consensus forecasts such as OCF and WATL have actually been shown to outperform (on average) any individual model.


I meant look to each individual run of each model and combine them to get a better consensus myself rather than relying on a multi-model forecaster like WATL which I've so often seen go nuts one run then gone the next run because one model isn't showing what it was previously.

For example, as it stands now, big falls from Fraser Island northwards are forecast by every model. However, just say EC was still going against the grain and had big falls in SE Q, I'd probably take WATL with a grain of salt because it'd no doubt reflect those big falls that EC (if it was) forecasting, despite the other 90% of models not suggesting anything of the sort. I've seen it do this before and that's what throws me off it.

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#1414007 - 21/03/2017 19:39 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4159
Yeah manually looking at each run/model is good. But jumpiness in WATL outputs vs individual models really depends on what the other models are doing. Since WATL is an average, it often tends to dampen out both the jumpiness and any huge totals in one of its component models (as long as most of the other models aren't jumpy in one direction either or have dramatically upped their totals) i.e. the other models balance it out to some extent.
Individual models can be very jumpy from run to run.

The exception is when most of the models are being jumpy or dramatically changing their totals in which case WATL will also be jumpy.

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#1414011 - 21/03/2017 19:52 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Mega]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4159
Originally Posted By: Mega
However, just say EC was still going against the grain and had big falls in SE Q, I'd probably take WATL with a grain of salt because it'd no doubt reflect those big falls that EC (if it was) forecasting, despite the other 90% of models not suggesting anything of the sort. I've seen it do this before and that's what throws me off it.

If it was just EC going for big falls in SE QLD but 90% of the other models weren't, all those other models would significantly tone down the average totals (depending on exactly how much EC is going for compared to the other models).

The very fact that one or two models are going for big falls often suggests that there's some influence in the weather setup that could make those outliers possible even though they may be less likely i.e. it's good to use any outliers to estimate the scope of possibilities rather than being ignored even if they're less likely than the majority...unless those outliers don't make any meteorological sense or don't seem realistic based on similar setups/local effects that have happened in the past.

But yes, looking at things manually as well is very important regardless.

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#1414015 - 21/03/2017 20:25 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10024
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Early morning light rain and drizzle periods brought 8.4mm in the 24hrs to 9am. No rain since then today, chance of a light shower overnight.

Decent rain up on the Tablelands today, with Armidale Airport receiving 60mm.
Highest 24hr to 9am fall in NENSW was 112mm at Upper Rous River.
Moderate flood warning still in force for the Orara River. Minor flood warnings current for the Clarence and Richmond Rivers.

Originally Posted By: LightningGus
So over these hit and miss shower and storm events, might move to NSW, seems to be the only place that gets widespread soaking rain. Many houses for sale in South West Rocks seabreeze? poke
There's a few on offer, haha. poke
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South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
March 2017 Rainfall: 441.6mm (Mar Avg. 180.6mm) // March 2017 Raindays: 20 (Mar Avg. 15.5 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 685.6mm (Jan-Mar Avg. 497.1mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 52 (Jan-Mar Avg. 42.9 raindays)

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#1414016 - 21/03/2017 20:25 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
BIG T Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 831
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
I'm working bundy , Hervey Bay , Maryborough areas thu/fri , I think I may get a wet a$$


Edited by BIG T (21/03/2017 20:26)

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#1414024 - 21/03/2017 20:40 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
Mad Elf #1.5 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2568
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Gee thats a nice looking WV loop. Wish we had more of something to excite it a liiiitle.

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#1414054 - 21/03/2017 21:42 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 525
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
I just look at the BOM 4 day surface charts these days, check Access R in the morning take a look at satellite and radar loops and sky outside and leave it go at that.Tryin to work out who's more accurate than who and looking at multitudes of models can lead to unnecessary frustration or false hope.Thats just my way doin it for what its worth.

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#1414091 - 22/03/2017 05:39 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW Upper low then ECL/Trough, with showers/thunder/rain areas 12 to 24 March 2017 [Re: Taylsy]
james1977 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2009
Posts: 2777
Loc: collingwood park
A pretty chunky shower here at the moment, probably already had 5 or more mms. I got a feeling it's gunna be another wet couple of days
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