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#1414040 - 21/03/2017 21:08 Tropical Low (99S) - Indian Ocean (March 2017)
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24807
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 3:12 pm WST on Tuesday 21 March 2017
Headline:
A tropical low may impact the Pilbara coast on Thursday as a tropical cyclone.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.

Watch Zone
Wallal to Onslow including Karratha and Port Hedland.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Low at 2:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 30 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 130 kilometres of 15.3 degrees South 116.8 degrees East, estimated to be 590 kilometres north northwest of Port Hedland and 600 kilometres north of Karratha.

Movement: southwest at 7 kilometres per hour.

The low is likely to move towards the south towards the Pilbara coast on Wednesday and has a moderate chance of reaching tropical cyclone intensity as it nears the coast on Thursday.

Hazards:
GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop between Onslow and Wallal during Thursday. Heavy rain is likely near the track.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises that there are no community alerts at present.

Communities between Wallal and Onslow should listen for the next advice.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm AWST Tuesday 21 March.
Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
September 2017 total - 1.4mm (11mm)
October 2017 total - 95.0mm (26mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 801.4mm (1122mm)

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#1414086 - 22/03/2017 01:09 Re: Tropical Low (99S) - Indian Ocean (March 2017) [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome

Finally got a track ...


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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1414128 - 22/03/2017 09:55 Re: Tropical Low (99S) - Indian Ocean (March 2017) [Re: Mick10]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 196
Loc: Cable Beach
Its really coming down here. Amazing
Woke up to torrential rain. Thunder and a bit of wind. Good stuff.

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#1414193 - 22/03/2017 14:03 Re: Tropical Low (99S) - Indian Ocean (March 2017) [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome


Yes finally going for the coast with some sort of organization.

Only going to remain a low it seems.

Hope you get heaps of rain down your way Ningergirl.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1414194 - 22/03/2017 14:03 Re: Tropical Low (99S) - Indian Ocean (March 2017) [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome
Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 am AWST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 35 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 95 kilometres of 17.2 degrees South, 116.5 degrees East , 395 kilometres north of Karratha and 410 kilometres north northwest of Port Hedland .
Movement: south at 11 kilometres per hour .

The low is forecast to track to the south towards the Pilbara coast but is now not expected to reach tropical cyclone intensity by the time it reaches the coast on Thursday.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1414465 - 23/03/2017 12:50 Re: Tropical Low (99S) - Indian Ocean (March 2017) [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Looking the best it has all its life at the moment. Deep convection, rotation. I wonder if it can do a 'flash' formation as it hits the coast. I have seen stranger things happen before. That will throw a spanner in the works for BOM after dismissing it so heavily and continue the trend of unpredictability of TC's. Cmon go you great thing. Smash in as a CAT 1 lol. It deserves that at least. Be good to see Hedland cop some 120+km/hr gusts after the 200+mm of rain. It might make afew peoples eye brows raise in the end.
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#1414489 - 23/03/2017 14:07 Re: Tropical Low (99S) - Indian Ocean (March 2017) [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
32-43 knots and pressure dropping with a few hours to go. Cmon crank it up.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1414492 - 23/03/2017 14:15 Re: Tropical Low (99S) - Indian Ocean (March 2017) [Re: Popeye]
Hailin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 848
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for DESTRUCTIVE WINDS and HEAVY RAINFALL
For people in parts of the
Pilbara district.
Issued at 11:00 am Thursday, 23 March 2017.
A tropical low to the north of Port Hedland and associated trough is affecting central parts of the Pilbara. At 10:30am WST radar imagery showed a band of rain continuing to fall through northern parts of the warning area, with the area of heavy rainfall expected to extend southward during the day. The low is expected to cross the coast in the vicinity of Port Hedland around 1:00pm today.
The low may produce DESTRUCTIVE WINDS to 125 kilometres per hour through coastal parts east of Whim Creek, including Port Hedland, which could result in DAMAGE TO HOMES AND PROPERTY.
HEAVY RAINFALL that may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible throughout the warning area as the low appoaches the coast and moves inland. Squally thunderstorms are also a risk through the warning area during Thursday.
Locations which may be affected include Port Hedland, Tom Price, Marble Bar, Nullagine, Pardoo Roadhouse and Whim Creek.

In the 24 hours to 9am Thursday 105mm of rainfall was recorded at Port Hedland.

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#1414496 - 23/03/2017 14:19 Re: Tropical Low (99S) - Indian Ocean (March 2017) [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Haha that's as good as a 'flash warning' as we may get Nooty. Intensified more than they thought and in all honesty might pump a little more in the next few hours. Here is the radar.

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#1414501 - 23/03/2017 14:25 Re: Tropical Low (99S) - Indian Ocean (March 2017) [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Severe weather warning for any storm is justified with destructive winds to 125kms etc etc. Destructive winds to 125kms/hr with the passing of a Tropical LOW. Thats a CAT 1 aint it. So interested to see what eventuates out of this. In any post analysis of something like this they would have to classify it as a TC if it keeps the momentum up that it is showing. Caleb may be born in the final hour of crossing yet.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1414507 - 23/03/2017 14:37 Re: Tropical Low (99S) - Indian Ocean (March 2017) [Re: Mick10]
sswanss Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/12/2004
Posts: 951
Loc: Sth Hedland
I know POP, this is Cat 1 Standards by my Observations,Like i said earlier been locked up for 48 hours on Red Alert before for things way less than this.
And just a bit of a note will be crossing us on about high tide & high tide today in Hedland supposed to be 7 meters. Wonder if there is any storm surge with this ???


Edited by sswanss (23/03/2017 14:40)
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#1414509 - 23/03/2017 14:44 Re: Tropical Low (99S) - Indian Ocean (March 2017) [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
I think if it was a bigger system crossing like this to the West of Hedland it would have created the perfect Storm surge set up for Hedland but I would imagine with this one it might just be some nice onshore wind waves pushing onto the coast.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1414516 - 23/03/2017 15:14 Re: Tropical Low (99S) - Indian Ocean (March 2017) [Re: Mick10]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 196
Loc: Cable Beach
Yep been on red for less. It is awesome. There is a lot of water on the roads. And the pools of water near cooke point road looks like an inland sea.

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#1414548 - 23/03/2017 16:46 Re: Tropical Low (99S) - Indian Ocean (March 2017) [Re: Mick10]
Blanched Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/12/2009
Posts: 138
Loc: Karratha, WA
It's Cat 1 strength according to the Beaufort Scale, lots of mates in Hedland saying it's hectic, schools shut, roads closed!

Work experience kid will be getting the flick!

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#1414549 - 23/03/2017 16:47 Re: Tropical Low (99S) - Indian Ocean (March 2017) [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Its been close to 2 hours of sustained winds right on that 34knt threshold with gusts to 51knts. Be interesting to see how this keeps up as it moves inland over the next few hours and also what the peak will reach. Airport is a reasonable way inland, not a lot but quite a few kms.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1414550 - 23/03/2017 16:55 Re: Tropical Low (99S) - Indian Ocean (March 2017) [Re: Mick10]
Blanched Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/12/2009
Posts: 138
Loc: Karratha, WA
Yeah 6.5km to the ocean from the weather station, about 8.5kms to the side it's crossing

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#1414553 - 23/03/2017 17:11 Re: Tropical Low (99S) - Indian Ocean (March 2017) [Re: Mick10]
CraigA74 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2007
Posts: 1249
Loc: Diamond Valley Qld
I'm currently down at Yandi Mine about 300ks south of Hedland....has already dumped a heap of rain from the outer bands. Hoping I can get back to Hedland on Saturday morning to fly home without to much water trying to block my way

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#1414561 - 23/03/2017 17:42 Re: Tropical Low (99S) - Indian Ocean (March 2017) [Re: Mick10]
sswanss Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/12/2004
Posts: 951
Loc: Sth Hedland
Tell me why is this Low under the thread of TC Caleb Now?
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#1414564 - 23/03/2017 17:44 Re: Tropical Low (99S) - Indian Ocean (March 2017) [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
The mods dont even bother to check. hahaha. There is a place outside of QLD that exists. lol. Caleb is up near Xmas island and has just been named.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1414565 - 23/03/2017 17:48 Re: Tropical Low (99S) - Indian Ocean (March 2017) [Re: Mick10]
sswanss Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/12/2004
Posts: 951
Loc: Sth Hedland
Yeah i made a Thread & was politely told to go to this one, Sorry if Im not supposed to make a thread because im no MOD.
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