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#1414299 - 22/03/2017 18:10 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Dawgggg]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7768
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
Right over my place at alligator creek as a cat 4

Jinxed it now. Should be a Tropical Low pushing of to NZ now.
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#1414301 - 22/03/2017 18:15 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7768
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
You guys in Townsville must be desperate for some rain though. Even Karratha and Port Hedland in the Pilbara have higher totals than Townsville.
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#1414306 - 22/03/2017 18:30 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Rainrunner Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 1331
Loc: Whitsundays
Lets show it off - its not often we see this forecast

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#1414307 - 22/03/2017 18:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
KBO Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/01/2015
Posts: 98
Loc: Cairns
Popeye, I went for a ride about a month ago down to Townsville was the greenest I have seen it.
For a place thats coastal city in North Queensland it is always very dry, it seems to miss the rain.
That's why up here in Cairns it's known as Brownsville, they really could do some rain over the Burdekin and hopefully this could do it.

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#1414309 - 22/03/2017 18:38 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7768
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
OH MY!!! Let the mayhem begin if that thing comes ashore. It certainly wont be dry any more after it has finished. Put Caleb in the Books for QLD for sure. You can have him.
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#1414310 - 22/03/2017 18:42 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Dawgggg]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 149
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
Right over my place at alligator creek as a cat 4


At least you won't have to drive far Trav. smile

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#1414312 - 22/03/2017 18:42 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ahab Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 170
Loc: Brisbane
Wow, let the panic begin.

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#1414315 - 22/03/2017 18:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 149
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
As far as just the modelling goes, below is the latest 7-day TC probability map from one of the ensembles (the ensemble version of GFS).

The MPAS model (one of the newer generation experimental models which has sometimes shown skill comparable to or even higher than EC's) isn't currently going for a high-end TC impact but rather, a much smaller weaker system.
But since this was based on yesterday's 00z run and its nominal resolution in that region is a fairly coarse 60km (its resolution is flexible depending on the area of the planet), probably not something to take literally at the moment:





Hey Ken,

Just wondering if you may have one of those images which has all of the forecast model runs for the various models. Thinking that could be of value with the numerous models side by side.

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#1414323 - 22/03/2017 19:13 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23527
Loc: Townsville
Could be a watch issued as early as Friday night, but id say much more likely Saturday morning.

This has really sprung up quick.
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#1414326 - 22/03/2017 19:20 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1037
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
So most models have it at least crossing the coast now? I cant find one that doesn't.. (not that I looked at many!)
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#1414327 - 22/03/2017 19:23 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 458
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Cmc or whatever has been having it stay off shore but who listens to that.
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Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Apr 2017]: 5.1mm (Ave 130.4mm)
Mar 2017: 246.3mm (avg 468.4mm)
YTD 2017 912.8mm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1414328 - 22/03/2017 19:23 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Cyclone_Tim_ Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 19/02/2017
Posts: 47
Loc: Mackay
Long time lurker ahahaha, I reckon the cyclone is going to go anywhere between cooktown to carmilla. But most likely to go between cairns and Proserpine.

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#1414331 - 22/03/2017 19:28 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Dan101]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 303
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Dan101
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
As far as just the modelling goes, below is the latest 7-day TC probability map from one of the ensembles (the ensemble version of GFS).

The MPAS model (one of the newer generation experimental models which has sometimes shown skill comparable to or even higher than EC's) isn't currently going for a high-end TC impact but rather, a much smaller weaker system.


Ken - interested to know how has the MPAS system performed with the current LOW about to make landfall in the Pilbara?

MPAS is available here smile
http://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/imagearchive/mpas/images.php?f=precipw&p=hur15us&r=global&d=2017032200
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#1414333 - 22/03/2017 19:33 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 303
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Remember only EC is currently forecasting this cyclone.
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Just ask, I'm more than happy to provide.

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#1414334 - 22/03/2017 19:44 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
Simmo FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 1365
Loc: Mareeba
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo
Remember only EC is currently forecasting this cyclone.


And Access, CMC and NAVGEM.
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Mareeba
MTD: 1.8mm
YTD: 733.4mm

Mareeba
2016: 491.4mm
2015: 826.2mm


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#1414337 - 22/03/2017 19:51 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Dawgggg]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7768
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
This has really sprung up quick.


Just ensure you get plenty of sleep over the next few days so your not napping on the side of the road again and miss all the action.
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#1414338 - 22/03/2017 19:57 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Green n Lumpy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/11/2008
Posts: 844
Loc: Cardwell QLD
Check out WindyTV. Nice and colourful!

https://www.windytv.com/overlays?2017-03-28-00,-18.636,148.041,6,m:c4Bakbn

Link may not work - cut and paste into your address bar.

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#1414344 - 22/03/2017 20:34 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 42
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Yeah EC looking good GFS showing no fun.

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#1414345 - 22/03/2017 20:34 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 458
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Will we get Caleb or not. Caleb is a terrible name lol
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Apr 2017]: 5.1mm (Ave 130.4mm)
Mar 2017: 246.3mm (avg 468.4mm)
YTD 2017 912.8mm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1414349 - 22/03/2017 20:39 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1037
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
For the more meteorologically educated people in this forum (or anyone who knows the answer!)

what are the shear conditions like next week? and also the steering patterns. Is there the possibility of a trough taking this thing to NZ, or shear ripping its head off?
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Ingham - Golden Gumboot holder of the Northern Region - cuz we steal Townsville's Rain!

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