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#1414384 - 22/03/2017 22:40 Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24682
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Considering the amount of posting and traffic regarding this system already, thought i would create its own thread. this system will remain a hot topic over the next few days. just like to ask members to please try and keep the chit chat to a minimum and remain on topic. Feel free to repost some of you model consensus data in here for recording keeping if you wish.

Cheers,
Mick

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Wednesday 22 March 2017
for the period until midnight EST Saturday 25 March 2017.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

A low pressure system southeast of the Papua New Guinea mainland is forecast to develop over the next few days while drifting slowly southwest. Conditions are expected to become more favourable for tropical cyclone development in the coming days, particularly from Saturday onwards.
At this stage, the likelihood for a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region is moderate - this rating should continue into next week.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Thursday:Very Low
Friday:Low
Saturday:Moderate


Edited by Raindammit (27/03/2017 12:11)

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#1414387 - 22/03/2017 23:00 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7742
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Good onya Mick. I wonder in this day and age of social media etc dominating things we can beat the all time record for the wzone forums of Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23.

Yasi in her peak. Something severe smashing into Townsville or Cairns could easily bring those numbers back.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1414389 - 22/03/2017 23:13 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Dan101 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 240
Loc: Mackay, QLD
Some piccies to kick it off. This evening's 00Z runs out to day 7:

ECMWF


GFS


UKMET


CMC


FIM8


FIM9


NAVGEM

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#1414390 - 22/03/2017 23:21 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/05/2007
Posts: 3027
Loc: Clifton Beach, Cairns - Queens...
Looks like we could be in for a few interesting days for a change.

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#1414392 - 22/03/2017 23:40 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23501
Loc: Townsville
Subtle change in the weather here in the last week.

Feels like a wet season of old.

Burdekin Dams spilling by 40cm, a slow moving system could create some crazy inflows that rival 09.
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2015/16 Storms
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#1414394 - 22/03/2017 23:41 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Stormwithin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/12/2016
Posts: 114
CMC...you be crazy 😂😂😂


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#1414396 - 23/03/2017 00:24 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Stormwithin]
Nerd65 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 392
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: Stormwithin
CMC...you be crazy 😂😂😂
Don't laugh. I wouldn't be surprised if that's what actually happened.
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#1414400 - 23/03/2017 03:32 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Dawgggg]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 149
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
Subtle change in the weather here in the last week.

Feels like a wet season of old.

Burdekin Dams spilling by 40cm, a slow moving system could create some crazy inflows that rival 09.


Totally agree Trav. The past couple of days in Cairns has seen extremely low cloud cover to the south, dark grey in colour, heavy, with some solid rainfall in the afternoons. Some could suggest, monsoonal by nature.

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#1414401 - 23/03/2017 05:31 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 149
From the JTWC.

My calcs:
-> 1000 klms from Cairns (@ 62 Deg)
-> 1300 klms from Cairns (@ 46 Deg)

******
ABPW10 PGTW 221330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/221330Z-230600ZMAR2017//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.4S 154.0E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM SOUTHWEST OF WILLIS ISLAND.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF
CONVECTION DISPLACED WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE IN THE AREA. A
220827Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS AREAS OF STRONG CONVECTION WITH
VERY LITTLE ORGANIZATION. A 221058Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES A SYMMETRIC
BUT WEAK 10-15 KNOT LLCC AT THE SURFACE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 20-25 KNOTS OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY FAIR DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE SHOWING DEVELOPMENT BEYOND THE 72 HOUR TIMEFRAME AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1).//
NNNN

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#1414404 - 23/03/2017 07:17 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
snowmad Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/06/2005
Posts: 879
Loc: Bowen
Models still all going for a cyclone crossing coast Monday/Tuesday where will be the question of interest push back to the north of Townsville in most models around the Townsville to Tully area.

However all show fairly large fetch of weather on the southern side all the way down to Mackay.

Exposed coast btw Ayr - Whitsunday will have a rough couple of days even with a cyclone that far north due to geography and alignment of the coastline along these parts of the world.

No doubt models will chop and change with crossing point but all consistent now for a crossing someone is going to get very windy.

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#1414416 - 23/03/2017 08:31 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 454
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
All models have been fairly consistent last few runs with there own predictions. GFS still favours a low only. So far I like ECs track. Deffo be interesting to see the real outcome. Have to say I now see how unreliable cmc is. Alot of past runs cmc had all sorts of lows and tcs hitting us while the rest didnt, now the rest have something hitting us, cmc sends it to the graveyard lol


Edited by rainthisway (23/03/2017 08:34)
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Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Apr 2017]: 5.1mm (Ave 130.4mm)
Mar 2017: 246.3mm (avg 468.4mm)
YTD 2017 912.8mm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1414417 - 23/03/2017 08:47 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4834
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
The CMc run i saw this morning (00Z) i think would create a stir. Pretty much drowning the entirety of SE qld

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#1414418 - 23/03/2017 08:52 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
mscactus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/10/2005
Posts: 2237
Loc: Heatley QLD
haha I thought the south east queenslanders were already complaining of drowning. smile And Good Morning all. Beautiful morning here in the Ville.
_________________________
March 2017 = 188.0mm
2017 YTD = 539.6mm

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#1414420 - 23/03/2017 08:58 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Brett Guy]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4243
Loc: Brisbane
Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
The CMc run i saw this morning (00Z) i think would create a stir. Pretty much drowning the entirety of SE qld


Has CMC ever actually been right?

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#1414423 - 23/03/2017 09:11 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
KBO Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/01/2015
Posts: 98
Loc: Cairns
Looks like it could be another TC Marcia, she ramped up her strength very quickly in just a few days.

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#1414424 - 23/03/2017 09:11 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Locke]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 221
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Locke
Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
The CMc run i saw this morning (00Z) i think would create a stir. Pretty much drowning the entirety of SE qld


Has CMC ever actually been right?

Their not that bad.
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http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au
Just ask, I'm more than happy to provide.

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#1414426 - 23/03/2017 09:16 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Rhubarb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2011
Posts: 741
Loc: West End, Townsville, QLD
Not much wind shear, but ocean is hot enough ... plus the monsoon trough hasn't completely disappeared or gone off the bother the Broomites yet. Let it meander slowly SW picking up more moisture as if comes and give us another Ita. Unexpected and a great soaking that filled our dam.

A very welcome 40mm in my rain gauge to 8am. Wicked
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Rhubarb
Hen scarts and filly tails make lofty ships wear low sails.

Rainfall
2017: March: 161.5 mm
2017: To date: 427.5 mm
2016: 1,660 mm
2015: 430.5 mm

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#1414431 - 23/03/2017 09:36 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4243
Loc: Brisbane
I'm thinking perhaps CMC has stronger system more influenced by upper level steering.

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#1414432 - 23/03/2017 09:40 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 379
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Yeah, I was thinking that too Locke. Kind of like TC Hamish all models had him crossing the coast as a Cat 2/3 cyclone at nearly every run. But it intensified into a Cat 5 and moved SE with a different steering pattern along the entire coastline without much impact.
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#1414433 - 23/03/2017 09:44 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
mscactus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/10/2005
Posts: 2237
Loc: Heatley QLD
Have had a very decent 175mm for the month here so far
_________________________
March 2017 = 188.0mm
2017 YTD = 539.6mm

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