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#1419984 - 30/03/2017 21:31 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: PVW]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2013
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: PVW
The feeder bands from Ex-TC Debbie caused some serious rain and flooding west of Mackay yesterday, and damaging winds.


Parents recorded 800mm in Eton on a Davis weather station in about a 30 hour period, with landslides and a sinkhole developing in their backyard. They also said winds yesterday and the night before last when Debbie was passing as a low were more severe than when Debbie crossed the coast as a Cat 4 in the north.

1km from their house, an entire housing estate went underwater severely and no one came to rescue them until today as calls out to 000 weren't being responded to.

My parents had an emergency yesterday, and I got a text message from them asking me to call 000 for them as they couldn't place any outgoing calls, even 000 and 112 weren't working. Was a really scary situation, and with NBN at their house they have no landline without power.

Placed the call, but no one ever responded to it, no help arrived. It was insane to see in a 1st world country.

Backwards I think. Not just having no communications during disasters, but so many people on those medical alert things have problems with NBN. Don't get me started on NBN, as it is the rest of this has turned into a rant...

If they were making calls to emergency numbers, you may find they were not responded to because it wasn't safe to go outside yet. Authorities did say this morning that people who were cut off and had no power or communications were being attended to first.

Time for people in cyclone country to become more responsible. We know when it's cyclone season, and surely newcomers must realise they're in cyclone country?

imho we have a responsibility to be aware of the weather - a very basic daily habit.

I have my *cyclone stash* enough to take me through a couple weeks of water and non-perishable food, plus a bit extra. Even though unlikely we'd get smashed here, it's quite possible for the creeks to be up, and the power, phones and TV out, if Cairns should be hit.

I can see why people don't want to leave their homes, I can see why they may wish to get out on the roads earlier. I know the thoughts that run through your head when you realise you have to turn around and drive 2.5 hours back to where you came from, only 15 minutes from your destination. But if you decide against the advisories I don't feel it's right to expect others to risk their lives for you. I still remember those people in the apartments at Cardwell during Yasi who insisted on staying, making a panicked call for rescue in the middle of it all... That fellow who went into the creek after his dog today in Brisbane needed 5 people with safety gear to rescue 1 person and 1 dog. People who drive through flooded roads and need rescuing slow down the process of reaching people like those in Eton.

I also think that we can't trust our councils when it comes to allowing housing developments in suspect areas. It's up to us to ask the question "does it flood here".
_________________________
Chillagoe
January: 393.0mm | February: 221.0mm | March: 153.5mm | April: 11.5mm | May: 8.5mm |
-------
YTD: 794.5mm
2016: 668.5mm
2015: 599.0mm

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#1419989 - 30/03/2017 21:38 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Grazina Ajana]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 1920
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Originally Posted By: Grazina Ajana


I never thought of this, and it's brilliant.
May I have your permission to share your post as a screenshot - with your name on it - on Facebook, please?


No because my original assessment was wrong, way way way wrong.

Here is a more accurate one.

Take a line from Bowen, to the Gemfields down to Roma, then to the border at Goondiwindi, then straight across to Lismore, then back up the coast to Bowen. That is about the Debbie rainfall coverage area. According to an google maps area calculator tool it is around 330 000 square km.

In a square km there is 1000 X 1000 so a million square metres.

So there are 330 000 000 000 square metres. A litre of water is the amount of water in a cube with 100mm sides or 10cm or 1 decimetre.

So there are 3 300 000 000 000 or three trillion, three hundred billion square decimetres.

If 100mm fell across this area on average (and many places got double or more that and other places half that), and you look at the rainfall maps I think it would easily do that. That makes it three trillion three hundred billion litres of water.

Sydney harbour capacity is apparently 500 billion litres.

So the rain could fill sydney harbour just over six and a half times.

That is a lot of water to hold up in those clouds.

Anyone want to check the sums? Feel free to copy and paste anywhere if the sums sound right.

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#1420002 - 30/03/2017 21:54 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: RC]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2013
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: RC
Originally Posted By: Grazina Ajana


I never thought of this, and it's brilliant.
May I have your permission to share your post as a screenshot - with your name on it - on Facebook, please?


No because my original assessment was wrong, way way way wrong.

Here is a more accurate one.

Take a line from Bowen, to the Gemfields down to Roma, then to the border at Goondiwindi, then straight across to Lismore, then back up the coast to Bowen. That is about the Debbie rainfall coverage area. According to an google maps area calculator tool it is around 330 000 square km.

In a square km there is 1000 X 1000 so a million square metres.

So there are 330 000 000 000 square metres. A litre of water is the amount of water in a cube with 100mm sides or 10cm or 1 decimetre.

So there are 3 300 000 000 000 or three trillion, three hundred billion square decimetres.

If 100mm fell across this area on average (and many places got double or more that and other places half that), and you look at the rainfall maps I think it would easily do that. That makes it three trillion three hundred billion litres of water.

Sydney harbour capacity is apparently 500 billion litres.

So the rain could fill sydney harbour just over six and a half times.

That is a lot of water to hold up in those clouds.

Anyone want to check the sums? Feel free to copy and paste anywhere if the sums sound right.



Any maths genii out there?
Be good to get this double checked before posting elsewhere.
I'd love to tweet it.
_________________________
Chillagoe
January: 393.0mm | February: 221.0mm | March: 153.5mm | April: 11.5mm | May: 8.5mm |
-------
YTD: 794.5mm
2016: 668.5mm
2015: 599.0mm

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#1420026 - 30/03/2017 22:20 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Foehn Correspondent Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2001
Posts: 530
Loc: Bardon 4065
Has anyone heard from Willow yet? Last I heard he was in the back of his car sheltering.
_________________________
If at first you donít succeed Ė call it Version 1.0

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#1420032 - 30/03/2017 22:24 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Foehn Correspondent]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2013
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: Foehn Correspondent
Has anyone heard from Willow yet? Last I heard he was in the back of his car sheltering.


I want to know how Willow is too. Anyone out there know who he is and can contact him??? Just to know he is okay.
_________________________
Chillagoe
January: 393.0mm | February: 221.0mm | March: 153.5mm | April: 11.5mm | May: 8.5mm |
-------
YTD: 794.5mm
2016: 668.5mm
2015: 599.0mm

Top
#1420038 - 30/03/2017 22:28 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10083
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
This is what I got (I only did General Maths in Year 11/12 though),

1mm of rain = 1 litre of water over 1 square metre
therefore,
100mm of rain = 100 litres of water over 1 square metre

1 square kilometre = 1000m x 1000m
1 square kilometre = 1,000,000 square metres
therefore,
330,000 square kilometres = 330,000,000,000 square metres (330000 x 1000000)

330 000 000 000 (square metres) x 100 (litres) = 33,000,000,000,000 litres (33 trillion litres)
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
June 2017 Rainfall: 216.6mm (Jun Avg. 138.7mm) // June 2017 Raindays: 15 (Jun Avg. 10.5 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1207.4mm (Jan-Jun Avg. 940.3mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 95 (Jan-Jun Avg. 77.4 raindays)

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#1420044 - 30/03/2017 22:37 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Lani Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 997
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
With all the focus on the South East now a video was shared on fb of a highway slip in Sarina. I was only able to find one overseas site that reported it which makes me wonder 1 of 2 things. 1. Is it real or is it from a previous event and has been rehashed for this event or 2 are we, as predicted, forgetting that our northern friends are still suffering?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-...s_campaign=1490

Re: Willow, I also havent heard from a friend in Mackay for two days. I'm thinking it's a power issue so here's hoping Willow has the same problem and will be back soon.
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2017-298, Jan-103.5, Feb-67.5, Mar-118.5, April-0, May-7, June-1.5

2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1420045 - 30/03/2017 22:38 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2013
Loc: Chillagoe
Thanks Seabreeze, I get stumped just thinking of calculations. grin
_________________________
Chillagoe
January: 393.0mm | February: 221.0mm | March: 153.5mm | April: 11.5mm | May: 8.5mm |
-------
YTD: 794.5mm
2016: 668.5mm
2015: 599.0mm

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#1420048 - 30/03/2017 22:43 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: cold@28]
PVW Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2372
Loc: Thuringowa, Townsville QLD
Originally Posted By: cold@28
Any maths genii out there?
Be good to get this double checked before posting elsewhere.
I'd love to tweet it.


Yeah, I've done advanced maths at university.
Seabreeze is correct.



Originally Posted By: cold@28
If they were making calls to emergency numbers, you may find they were not responded to because it wasn't safe to go outside yet. Authorities did say this morning that people who were cut off and had no power or communications were being attended to first.

Time for people in cyclone country to become more responsible. We know when it's cyclone season, and surely newcomers must realise they're in cyclone country?

Of course, but the flooding that occurred in Eton was unprecedented. The Kinchant Dam recorded its highest level of water in recorded history. Areas that have never flooded before flooded.

Official advice came out prior to the flooding advising people to evacuate, and the BOM had the SEWS activated for the flooding, but with no power, internet, or phones, no one in the area got the advice to evacuate and knew nothing about the flooding until it happened.

As the water flowed out of Kinchant Dam, the reports that I've heard are that a "wall of water" flowed through these areas within minutes. Similar to the Lockyer Valley floods a few years ago.

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#1420050 - 30/03/2017 22:45 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Lani]
PVW Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2372
Loc: Thuringowa, Townsville QLD
Originally Posted By: Lani
With all the focus on the South East now a video was shared on fb of a highway slip in Sarina. I was only able to find one overseas site that reported it which makes me wonder 1 of 2 things. 1. Is it real or is it from a previous event and has been rehashed for this event or 2 are we, as predicted, forgetting that our northern friends are still suffering?

Unfortunately it's number 2.
Those are all current photos that are occurring now, but unfortunately, while things are still dire in some parts of the Mackay region, it's not getting covered at all now that Brisbane is flooding.

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#1420051 - 30/03/2017 22:45 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Lani]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2013
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: Lani
With all the focus on the South East now a video was shared on fb of a highway slip in Sarina. I was only able to find one overseas site that reported it which makes me wonder 1 of 2 things. 1. Is it real or is it from a previous event and has been rehashed for this event or 2 are we, as predicted, forgetting that our northern friends are still suffering?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-...s_campaign=1490

Re: Willow, I also havent heard from a friend in Mackay for two days. I'm thinking it's a power issue so here's hoping Willow has the same problem and will be back soon.


I haven't driven south for 3 years, but but I'm certain that's not the Bruce Highway. It could, however, be the old road going up over the range, if it is actually Sarina.

Anyone else recognise the road?
_________________________
Chillagoe
January: 393.0mm | February: 221.0mm | March: 153.5mm | April: 11.5mm | May: 8.5mm |
-------
YTD: 794.5mm
2016: 668.5mm
2015: 599.0mm

Top
#1420057 - 30/03/2017 22:53 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2013
Loc: Chillagoe
Thanks PVW. Good to get confirmation of the maths.
Yes, I noticed that the cyclone was dropped like a hotcake.


Edited by cold@28 (30/03/2017 22:55)
_________________________
Chillagoe
January: 393.0mm | February: 221.0mm | March: 153.5mm | April: 11.5mm | May: 8.5mm |
-------
YTD: 794.5mm
2016: 668.5mm
2015: 599.0mm

Top
#1420058 - 30/03/2017 22:56 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
wilyms Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 114
Loc: Roma, Qld
Looks to be Sarina Range / Marlborough - Sarina Road

Local coverage Mercury

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#1420061 - 30/03/2017 23:02 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Multiversity Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 76
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
Seabreeze is right with the units = 1*10E12 or tera.


Just remember that there is a lot of stuff out there.
_________________________
Science is the only answer

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#1420065 - 30/03/2017 23:11 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: cold@28]
PVW Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2372
Loc: Thuringowa, Townsville QLD
Originally Posted By: cold@28


I haven't driven south for 3 years, but but I'm certain that's not the Bruce Highway. It could, however, be the old road going up over the range, if it is actually Sarina.

Anyone else recognise the road?


Yeah, I do. It's the Sarina-Marlborough road going over the Sarina Range.

The Eton Range on the Peak Downs Highway has also been affected by a landslide, but is in far worse state than the Sarina Range, and Eungella Range has also had a landslide.

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#1420067 - 30/03/2017 23:13 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: PVW]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2013
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: PVW
Originally Posted By: cold@28
If they were making calls to emergency numbers, you may find they were not responded to because it wasn't safe to go outside yet. Authorities did say this morning that people who were cut off and had no power or communications were being attended to first.

Time for people in cyclone country to become more responsible. We know when it's cyclone season, and surely newcomers must realise they're in cyclone country?

Of course, but the flooding that occurred in Eton was unprecedented. The Kinchant Dam recorded its highest level of water in recorded history. Areas that have never flooded before flooded.

Official advice came out prior to the flooding advising people to evacuate, and the BOM had the SEWS activated for the flooding, but with no power, internet, or phones, no one in the area got the advice to evacuate and knew nothing about the flooding until it happened.

As the water flowed out of Kinchant Dam, the reports that I've heard are that a "wall of water" flowed through these areas within minutes. Similar to the Lockyer Valley floods a few years ago.


Now that I reread what you've said, my first thought was the Lockyer Valley.

Unfortunately, there's probably not much we can do about communication these days, short of revolution. frown
_________________________
Chillagoe
January: 393.0mm | February: 221.0mm | March: 153.5mm | April: 11.5mm | May: 8.5mm |
-------
YTD: 794.5mm
2016: 668.5mm
2015: 599.0mm

Top
#1420070 - 30/03/2017 23:15 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2013
Loc: Chillagoe
Thanks again PVW, I made a good guess.
(Haven't been up that road since 1974...)
_________________________
Chillagoe
January: 393.0mm | February: 221.0mm | March: 153.5mm | April: 11.5mm | May: 8.5mm |
-------
YTD: 794.5mm
2016: 668.5mm
2015: 599.0mm

Top
#1420073 - 30/03/2017 23:19 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2057
Loc: Clare, SA
Yep, the media will nearly always favour whatever will get them more views...much of QLD live in the south east corner so if they have the opportunity to reel in more viewers (and revenue, their ultimate goal) they will focus on that unfortunately.

Those thunderstorms that trained the area west of Mackay (among many other areas) last night were bloody remarkable. Monumental amounts of rain in a short period, hopefully some footage/pics come forth from it (difficult given it was at nighttime i know). It would have been downright scary in some areas I'm sure, hopefully it receives coverage in due course, and hopefully many of the shortfalls of getting the information out during such widespread severe events gets looked into.

The one thing that seems to never fail is am radio, always worth keeping a battery powered radio for events like this! During the severe weather in SA in September last year it was the only access I had to current information, all forms of internet, power and telecommunications were out for two to five days! Something if I am to be honest, didn't think was possible at the time for this region.
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http://markdawsonphoto.wordpress.com/

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#1420097 - 31/03/2017 00:58 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
UnbendableGirder Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 31/03/2017
Posts: 1
I can confirm that the previous link to the highway up the Sarina range is legit.

A mate of mine lives up the range and posted some photos on facebook earlier today! looks like they have to go the long way around to town for a while.

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#1420107 - 31/03/2017 05:52 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Markus]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 149
Originally Posted By: Markus
Yep, the media will nearly always favour whatever will get them more views...much of QLD live in the south east corner so if they have the opportunity to reel in more viewers (and revenue, their ultimate goal) they will focus on that unfortunately.

Those thunderstorms that trained the area west of Mackay (among many other areas) last night were bloody remarkable. Monumental amounts of rain in a short period, hopefully some footage/pics come forth from it (difficult given it was at nighttime i know). It would have been downright scary in some areas I'm sure, hopefully it receives coverage in due course, and hopefully many of the shortfalls of getting the information out during such widespread severe events gets looked into.

The one thing that seems to never fail is am radio, always worth keeping a battery powered radio for events like this! During the severe weather in SA in September last year it was the only access I had to current information, all forms of internet, power and telecommunications were out for two to five days! Something if I am to be honest, didn't think was possible at the time for this region.


Interesting summary.

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