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#1420112 - 31/03/2017 06:42 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2093
Loc: Chillagoe
_________________________
Chillagoe
January: 393.0mm | February: 221.0mm | March: 153.5mm | April: 11.5mm | May: 8.5mm | June: 2.0mm | July: 2.0mm | August: 1.0mm
-------
YTD: 812.0mm
2016: 668.5mm
2015: 599.0mm

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#1420129 - 31/03/2017 08:28 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: PVW]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2061
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Originally Posted By: PVW

Yeah, I've done advanced maths at university.
Seabreeze is correct.


Yea I missed a zero.

33 trillion litres of water.

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#1420130 - 31/03/2017 08:38 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mega]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17862
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
..and here's CMC's from Saturday at 10.00am. I'm not sure why this model cops such a pasting all the time .It forecast the southern dip before both EC and GFS .

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/....90908813476562

...and EC at the same time.


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/....45454406738281

In fact CMC last Friday..

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/....90908813476562

...and EC

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/....90908813476562


EC was bloody terrible as was UKMET, not only on track but also intensity. She only really got going like 24-36 hours to landfall yet EC kept way overdoing intensity prior to that. Track was bad too since it kept trying to anchor it too far north every run. GFS was slow to see any TC but once it did, it handled it a lot better than EC. CMC, I give it a lot of crap but it did somewhat get it right...Though there were earlier runs when it kept calling for a Capricornia landfall iirc.


Yes, I saw that run however it was the first one showing the system was not going west as EC had kept showing. EC wasn't particularly good on numerous systems the past few years. Oswald and Nathan were both sent across the Cape by EC even late in the run in Oswald's case before it flooded Bundaberg.

CMC seems to struggle with intensity, either going way high or way low however the tracking has been fantastic on several systems the past couple of years though it does chuck out some weird runs at times. No model got the intensity of TC Marcia within cooee, however CMC was the only one to put it near Rocky a week out and even more remarkably it also positioned the other system near Gove at the same time. No mean feat 7 days out on one system, let alone two.

EC in fairness was very close with the intensity of Debbie.
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#1420167 - 31/03/2017 11:23 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Multiversity Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 76
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
Has anybody got links to footage of the actual TC Debbie eyewall/eye?

Plenty of video out there of straight line winds in rainbands.

Any evidence/reports of tornadoes/ eyewall swirls with coast crossing?
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Science is the only answer

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#1420231 - 31/03/2017 18:26 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: ColdFront]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 149
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
..and here's CMC's from Saturday at 10.00am. I'm not sure why this model cops such a pasting all the time .It forecast the southern dip before both EC and GFS .

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/....90908813476562

...and EC at the same time.


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/....45454406738281

In fact CMC last Friday..

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/....90908813476562

...and EC

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/....90908813476562


EC was bloody terrible as was UKMET, not only on track but also intensity. She only really got going like 24-36 hours to landfall yet EC kept way overdoing intensity prior to that. Track was bad too since it kept trying to anchor it too far north every run. GFS was slow to see any TC but once it did, it handled it a lot better than EC. CMC, I give it a lot of crap but it did somewhat get it right...Though there were earlier runs when it kept calling for a Capricornia landfall iirc.


Yes, I saw that run however it was the first one showing the system was not going west as EC had kept showing. EC wasn't particularly good on numerous systems the past few years. Oswald and Nathan were both sent across the Cape by EC even late in the run in Oswald's case before it flooded Bundaberg.

CMC seems to struggle with intensity, either going way high or way low however the tracking has been fantastic on several systems the past couple of years though it does chuck out some weird runs at times. No model got the intensity of TC Marcia within cooee, however CMC was the only one to put it near Rocky a week out and even more remarkably it also positioned the other system near Gove at the same time. No mean feat 7 days out on one system, let alone two.

EC in fairness was very close with the intensity of Debbie.


The Hurricane Model appeared to do pretty well with the intensity as well I thought.

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#1420233 - 31/03/2017 18:56 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Multiversity]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23545
Loc: Townsville
Originally Posted By: Multiversity
Has anybody got links to footage of the actual TC Debbie eyewall/eye?

Plenty of video out there of straight line winds in rainbands.

Any evidence/reports of tornadoes/ eyewall swirls with coast crossing?


Yuppp getting onto footage this weekend.
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#1420307 - 01/04/2017 09:26 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Dawgggg]
Multiversity Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 76
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
Fantastic. Looking forward to it. Cheers
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#1420338 - 01/04/2017 11:54 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Multiversity]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1832
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Does anyone have any photos from inside the eye of a cyclone. I heard that looking up into the sky of an eye is like being in on the ground looking up into a stadium.

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#1420349 - 01/04/2017 14:37 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 312
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Does anyone have any photos from inside the eye of a cyclone. I heard that looking up into the sky of an eye is like being in on the ground looking up into a stadium.

Yep stadium effect. The few images from inside a cyclone eye are pretty amazing.
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#1420357 - 01/04/2017 15:42 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Multiversity Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 76
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
Could somebody please explain the steering conditions for ex-TC Debbie? It seems to be still a reasonably significant system but is parked out in the Southern CS/Northern Tasman. Just wondering why it hasn't been carried off towards NZ in the general NW flow above 500hPa. Cheers
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#1420358 - 01/04/2017 15:52 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Nature's Fury]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17862
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Does anyone have any photos from inside the eye of a cyclone. I heard that looking up into the sky of an eye is like being in on the ground looking up into a stadium.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eT5K6FR_eVs
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#1420370 - 01/04/2017 18:26 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Multiversity Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 76
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
Just a thought, but I remember an article some years ago regarding a group flying UAVs into TCs off Qld coast to gather data for research projects. I can't remember which agency it might have been. Does anybody know what the current status of any research like this might be?

I wish we had the luxury of NOAAs Orions and Gulfstream to enhance BOM forecasts but I thought that UAVs were a pretty good option. Cheers
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#1420372 - 01/04/2017 18:47 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: ColdFront]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1832
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Does anyone have any photos from inside the eye of a cyclone. I heard that looking up into the sky of an eye is like being in on the ground looking up into a stadium.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eT5K6FR_eVs


Thanks, great video. Best to steer clear of the comments though haha.

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#1420433 - 02/04/2017 08:56 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Drought declared Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/02/2015
Posts: 155
Some before and after shots of the pontoon at Hardy Reef, that has the AIMS weather station.It was in the eye wall for a very long time.




[img]https://scontent-lax3-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t...4ce&oe=5991E7DD[/img]

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#1420456 - 02/04/2017 12:21 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23545
Loc: Townsville
I will have youtube footage up this arvo! Its uploading currently.

Full chase video, goes for 20 minute's haha.
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#1420477 - 02/04/2017 16:24 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23545
Loc: Townsville
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#1420481 - 02/04/2017 16:47 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Good one. Crazy buggers lol.
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#1420482 - 02/04/2017 16:53 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23545
Loc: Townsville
This one was a bit hairy in the car.
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2015/16 Storms
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#1420483 - 02/04/2017 16:54 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2093
Loc: Chillagoe
Thanks Dawgggg
A great second hand experience. grin
_________________________
Chillagoe
January: 393.0mm | February: 221.0mm | March: 153.5mm | April: 11.5mm | May: 8.5mm | June: 2.0mm | July: 2.0mm | August: 1.0mm
-------
YTD: 812.0mm
2016: 668.5mm
2015: 599.0mm

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#1420489 - 02/04/2017 17:14 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Donger Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 28/01/2011
Posts: 9
Loc: St Andrews
Wow, my pulse was racing watching that footage. Unbelievable, thank you for sharing.

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