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#1414506 - 23/03/2017 14:36 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Snapper22lb]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
Thanks Steamy - could you please explain the time cycle for the forecast in the above link. ie is that over 3,4 days, what does 18z mean. Either way they are impressive totals - very interested to see what happens post crossing in terms of rainfall. Thanks in advance.

"GFS INIT 18z Mar 22" is the start of the model run.

"18z Mar 22 (0hrs)" is the date stamp for that frame of the run, this one being the first at zero hours from the start.

18z is 1800 zulu, is 1800 GMT (Greenwich Mean Time), is 1800 UTC (Coordinated Universal Time), all the same thing based on time at the Royal Observatory, Greenwich in England.

AEST is GMT+10, ie add 10 hours to any of them to get AEST.

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#1414508 - 23/03/2017 14:41 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1037
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
Its been a while since we've been able to run the crossing place/time/strength comp....

Tully-Cardwell, cat 2, Monday night.

On a serious note, I wish these things would come earlier in the year. Sugar cane is of a height now that I can snap (similar to Ita's damage in April 2014). it was looking like a bumper crop this year too. A Jan/Feb crossing has very little impact on cane - its still young and stands back up after time.
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#1414510 - 23/03/2017 14:45 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: ol mate]
former_qlder Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/03/2015
Posts: 25
Originally Posted By: ol mate
Its been a while since we've been able to run the crossing place/time/strength comp....

Tully-Cardwell, cat 2, Monday night.


Mission Beach. Late Monday afternoon. Cat 3.

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#1414511 - 23/03/2017 14:48 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7763
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Auckland, Cat 1. Late next week. poke grin wink
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#1414512 - 23/03/2017 14:51 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
E-J Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2006
Posts: 623
Loc: Innisfail (Mourilyan)
I noticed the Latest GFS run has landfall at Innisfail 1am Monday morning as a marginal Low/TC, wind vectors indicate that system has only Eastern Quadrants marginal TC strength also. I think there is no real question as to if it will form or hit the coast somewhere, it is just a matter of intensity really. SST's are 29/30 and to a very reasonable depth. Shear forecast to be negligible later in the runs. I think this baby will surprise a few pundits.
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#1414513 - 23/03/2017 14:55 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Popeye]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 458
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Originally Posted By: Popeye
If the LOW off XMAS island in WA forms in the next 24hrs which is forecast to do it takes Caleb off the list. Next in line is TC DEBBIE. She sounds horrid. 'Debbie does QLD' I think i remember seeing a movie about that years ago. Watch out crew Debbie is on her way.


Apparently not. Bom have said ours will be Caleb if it forms. They havent even mentioned the wa one so no idea. I would think if ours forms after yours ours would be debbie. Maybe they will save Caleb for ours and jump to Debbie forward for WA.
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Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Apr 2017]: 5.1mm (Ave 130.4mm)
Mar 2017: 246.3mm (avg 468.4mm)
YTD 2017 912.8mm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1414514 - 23/03/2017 14:58 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: rainthisway]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 384
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Originally Posted By: rainthisway
Originally Posted By: Popeye
If the LOW off XMAS island in WA forms in the next 24hrs which is forecast to do it takes Caleb off the list. Next in line is TC DEBBIE. She sounds horrid. 'Debbie does QLD' I think i remember seeing a movie about that years ago. Watch out crew Debbie is on her way.


Apparently not. Bom have said ours will be Caleb if it forms. They havent even mentioned the wa one so no idea. I would think if ours forms after yours ours would be debbie. Maybe they will save Caleb for ours and jump to Debbie forward for WA.


Did the BOM say that? Or the media said that without researching if there could be other cyclones that may form before the QlD one?
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#1414515 - 23/03/2017 15:04 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4310
The next system to become a TC in the Australian region will be named Caleb. The one after that will be named Debbie.
There's no exceptions.

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#1414518 - 23/03/2017 15:25 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14145
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
Yes Ken Kato is right. First one to form gets called Caleb, the next one Debbie.

For my money its Ingham, zero dark hundred hours Tuesday morning because, heaven forbid, be could actually get one that crosses it daylight hours.

Time to start taking the before photos I guess. Lol. Bring it on.
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202mm April 2017
Best 156mm 19/5/17
2017 Total 688mm
2016 Total 649mm
2015 Total 375mm
2014 Total 1032mm
2013 Total 715mm







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#1414519 - 23/03/2017 15:31 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
TSVWeatherNerd Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/07/2012
Posts: 930
Loc: Weather Nerd Central, Mundingb...
Good outflow, warm water, reducing shear...I'm picking Cat 4 at Ingham on Monday, about 5am as a fairly small system.
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#1414521 - 23/03/2017 15:33 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: former_qlder]
slipperyfish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/11/2011
Posts: 1176
Loc: Charters Towers
Originally Posted By: former_qlder
Originally Posted By: ol mate
Its been a while since we've been able to run the crossing place/time/strength comp....

Tully-Cardwell, cat 2, Monday night.


Mission Beach. Late Monday afternoon. Cat 3.


Stop It !!!!!

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#1414522 - 23/03/2017 15:37 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1037
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
For the record...

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pmEST on Thursday 23 March 2017
for the period until midnight ESTSunday 26 March 2017.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low pressure system is located southeast of the Papua New Guinea mainland. It is forecast to drift southward for the next 24 to 36 hours, before turning more westward towards the tropical Queensland coast late Friday or on Saturday.

Conditions are favourable for this system to develop, and the probability of it forming into a tropical cyclone will steadily increase into the weekend.

This system is likely to make landfall on the north tropical Queensland coast early next week.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Friday:
Low
Saturday:
Moderate
Sunday:
High
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Ingham - Golden Gumboot holder of the Northern Region - cuz we steal Townsville's Rain!

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#1414523 - 23/03/2017 15:38 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12542
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
I'm more than happy for it to give the Cassowary Coast a wide berth..please..
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Bilyana FNQ

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#1414524 - 23/03/2017 15:40 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Snapper22lb]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 249
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
Thanks Steamy - could you please explain the time cycle for the forecast in the above link. ie is that over 3,4 days, what does 18z mean. Either way they are impressive totals - very interested to see what happens post crossing in terms of rainfall. Thanks in advance.

I might as well add the data inputs for the different runs.

00Z - Weather buoy, satellite data, shipping data, country data, NOAA data
06Z - Weather buoy, satellite data, shipping data
12Z - Shipping data, Satellite data ONLY
18Z - Weather buoy, satellite data, shipping data, country data, NOAA data

This is for GFS and several other models.
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#1414525 - 23/03/2017 15:43 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: slipperyfish]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6750
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
You can't Stop mother nature any way.

It's can do any things if she want to do any way that what I think any way.

The only things we got to do is keep keep calm and keep up to date with the information and update.


Edited by Mathew (23/03/2017 15:48)
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Rt: 11.43mm since 5:35pm >
Rt: 18 Jan 2017 > >
> > 5/10/17 6.10mm > p 24 h 35.81mm 05/15/17 122.69mm
T now 27.8C > Tm 27.8C minT 16.4C H 43% W 4.3km G 7.9km BAROMETRIC 761.4mmhg 1:17pm 5/25/17 > re update

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#1414526 - 23/03/2017 15:44 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 384
Loc: Elimbah 4516
So Snowy Hibbo, does that mean the 12Z and 06Z will be the least accurate forecast because of the less available data inputted into the model?
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Records are MEANT to be broken.

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#1414527 - 23/03/2017 15:47 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6176
Loc: Central Qld.
I think Townsville needs the rain so maybe head up that way.

I'm wondering why the Weatherzone synoptic charts don't show any cyclone yet . Too early?
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#1414529 - 23/03/2017 15:50 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mick10]
KBO Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/01/2015
Posts: 98
Loc: Cairns
If I am going to have a punt. Babinda, Mirriwinni, Bramston Beach CAT 3 Monday 27th 18:25.

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#1414532 - 23/03/2017 15:53 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Squeako_88]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4310
Originally Posted By: Squeako_88
So Snowy Hibbo, does that mean the 12Z and 06Z will be the least accurate forecast because of the less available data inputted into the model?
There used to be some sizeable differences in skill between the different run times of GFS but those differences have narrowed in recent years, largely due to satellite data covering most of the planet for each run. Extra data from aircraft equipped with AMDAR packages also probably help.

The most recent skill score stats for GFS over the last 30 days shows that the 12z/18z runs were slightly more skillful than the 00z/06z runs at long ranges (hardly noticeable for shorter ranges) for the MSLP for the extratropical regions in the southern hemisphere... while the 00z run was less skillful than the other runs in the tropics at long ranges.
Although data from conventional obs sources is still very important, it doesn't always mean that they make a big improvement on overall skill of the model.

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#1414537 - 23/03/2017 16:21 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie (91P) - Coral Sea March 2017 [Re: Mathew]
Rainrunner Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 1331
Loc: Whitsundays
Originally Posted By: Mathew
You can't Stop mother nature any way.

It's can do any things if she want to do any way that what I think any way.

The only things we got to do is keep keep calm and keep up to date with the information and update.

Good advice Mathew - your humour will help keep everyone calm
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Cyclone Chasee: Ului 2010, Dylan & Ita 2014

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